Dipping my toes

In the beginning of 2011, I was cautious on the Indian markets.

Perhaps now is the time to test the waters. There is strong negative sentiment. Perhaps it is time to dip your feet.

Glencore- gleaming

Larry Fink’s infamous Blackrock IPO brought out at the top of the market in 2007, just before the stock market crash took 75% off its value.

Now we have Glencore- the commodities trading giant has lead the parade this year with an $11 billion IPO. 

Continuing with the turning tide theme

Summary
-Markets will be rocky for the next few months.
-Emerging Economies are slowing, fighting inflation.
-Euro looking dangerous
-The PIGS are heading for a recession.
-China is tightening, to force a slowdown in construction and force inflation rates down due to social issues.
-We are seeing a global economic slowdown that is changing global fundamentals


If scenario is correct, best positions would be in a risk off trade:
- Long US Dollar
- Short copper and other base metals
- Short commodities
- Short commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD)
- Defensive stock sectors (if you have to be in stocks)
- Long term US Bonds are awful
- Short term will be a ride to safety

The China syndrome

Yahoo’s experience with Alibaba coupled with the China slowdown, incorrect number reporting by their banks, high inflation, rumours of super over capacity, empty malls / houses, under priced currency, etc ensure that one needs to understand the local economy and business culture in detail.

The “reverse mergers” is yet another warning sign of this ‘beautiful’ culture. You still do not know who is the fool on the poker table? Then guess what…………….its probably................

Long John Silver becomes short John Silver

"What started off as a sharp correction in silver is quickly turning into a sell-off of historic proportions. With a four-day decline of more than 24%- 25%, the sell off in silver is now the seventh most severe in the history of the metal's futures contract. If we were to eliminate periods that overlapped with each other, the current sell off ranks as the fifth worst of all time," Bespoke Investment Group.

If you missed it on the way up, perhaps you could have made it on the way down. The treasure hunt is over.

But hey, there always the dollar to buy then. 

Obama vs Osama bin

Bin there, done that. And now that the showdown between the duo  is over, we focus on the great future ahead. Ahem, ahem.

Silver is shooting like a star. Gold is up, dollar seems to be going down nay underground.

And now the Chinese whispers will start. Will the commodity bull run last? Or are we on the path to a change in medium trend?

Indian markets down almost 500 points on interest rate hike of 50 basis points by RBI. Infact hiking rates is also rumoured to cure AIDS crisis as well as prevent tsunamis. So playing ding dong with interest rates will reinvent the world. To hell with education and innovation.

So here we witness major changes.... perhaps flattening of world stock markets? I, for one, am holding my cards close to my chest. Sitting in cash was never exciting. Okay, back to the Osama news then.