The Economic Confidence Model began with Recorded History

Posted Mar 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: How far back how you tested you Economic Confidence Model?

GP

ANSWER: To the start of recorded history. Each wave has been identified and numbered. It is very remarkable how history conforms cyclically to this frequency.

It has been tested on every culture and empire from Asia to Europe.

Here is a more modern perspective on the various events that took place.

The risk for political change in North Korea comes into play as soon as 2019/2020

When will North Korea Rise to Overthrow Kim Jung Un?

Posted Mar 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You said that Kim Jung Un was at risk of being overthrown and therefore he would have to shift direction or go to war. When do you see North Korea falling?

PP

ANSWER: When Korea was split in 1945 into communist North against the South, the terrain has always dictated the situation. About 65% of Korea’s heavy industry was located in the north, but, due to the harshness of the terrain, only 37% of its agriculture existed in the North. This is why the North often has bouts of famine.

I have warned that the Economic Confidence Model has three distinct components. There is the main wave frequency based upon Pi of 8.6 years which builds into 6 waves forming the major wave of 51.6 years which seems to be the generational shifting wave that manifests in political changes between public and private trends.

Then there is the Volatility Wave component. This is what causes one 8.6 year wave to be more pronounced than another. The volatility component has a frequency of 6 years which is a slower moving wave taking 12 unit waves to build into the ultimate volatility peaks of 72-year intervals.

The Schema Frequency I do not reveal. To put this in context, it is the DNA wave of a coded pattern throughout time. This will be the last thing I ever reveal if I decide to do so. The jury is still out. This is what everyone has tried to get from me for so long. It is the key to the interaction of waves.

On August 8th, 1945 (1945.602), the Soviet Union declared war on Japan. Soviet troops advanced and the US government feared Russia would occupy the whole of Korea. On August 10th, the US government proposed the 38th parallel division.

Therefore, the 72-year of volatility began during the summer of last year – 2017.602 (August 7th). Communism fell on its 72-year cycle (1917-1989). The Soviet Union broke up 2 years into that cyclical event. This places the same timing risk cor North Korea going into 2019-2020.

The 51.6-year cycle from 1945 (1997.202) marked the start of the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis. Kim Jung Un was conducting missile tests that began on February 12, 2017, last year, which was just a KN-15 Pukguksone type. Thereafter tests took place on March 6th, March 22nd, April 5th, April 16th, April 29th, May 14th, May 21st, May 29th, and June 8th. The intercontinental ballistic missile tests began with the Hwasong 14 on July 4th, probably because of the American Independence holiday. That is when the attention began to really turn to North Korea and that began almost to the day of the 72-year turning point.

The entire world is going to go nuts 2031/2032. There will not be a country that is spared from political and economic events. The risk a serious famine in North Korea which could result in the people rising up will arrive in 2023. That pressure will begin here this year 2018.70 – which will be September 13th, 2018. This appears to the turning point that is not just concerning North Korea. It is appearing around the world in many markets. The risk for political change in North Korea comes into play as soon as 2019/2020

Rome and China going back to the period of 180AD. The connection point has ALWAYS been Syria

Why Syria has ALWAYS been Strategic

Posted Mar 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Syria has always been strategic throughout recorded history. You had to pass through it between Babylon and Egypt. However, as world trade began to emerge, the connections between China and the ancient Roman Empire were fully developed through the Silk Road. Spices were always worth their weight in gold and even during the Middle Ages, bankers were called “pepper-men” because pepper was more valuable than gold by weight.

Following the death of  Alexander the Great in 323 BC, his generals divided up the territory he had conquered. After the Battle of Ipsus in 301 BC, Seleucus I Nicator (458-281BC) won the territory of Syria. Seleucus founded four cities in northwestern Syria, one of which was Antioch. He named this city in honor of his father Antiochus or perhaps his son who was named after his grandfather. It was founded on a site chosen through ritual means. Reportedly, an eagle, the bird of Zeus, had been given a piece of sacrificial meat and the city was founded on the site to which the eagle carried the offering. Seleucus did this on the 22nd day of the month of Artemisios in the twelfth year of his reign, which in modern terms was May 300 BC.

Antioch quickly rose to become the Syrian capital. Antioch flourished due to trade. Caravan merchants began to bring goods from China to the marketplace in Antioch. This was the beginning of the Silk Road in ancient times. Antioch benefited from Roman rule. The Historia Augusta mentions a great fire in Antioch, implying that the emperor Antoninus Pius (138-161AD) offered help to restore the city because it had become the gateway to a fabled great empire in the East. This legend of a great Empire in China had even inspired Alexander the Great to attempt to reach it giving up in India.

Antioch became an extremely important port of trade in the ancient world. It flourished and any major natural disaster would send financial panic down the banking street in Rome – Via Sacra. When the city sometimes suffered earthquakes as recorded during the reigns of Tiberius (14-37AD),Caligula (37-41AD), Hadrian (117-138AD), and Diocletian (284-305AD). Its governor Pescennius Niger (193-194AD) proclaimed himself emperor, he lost the war against his rival Septimius Severus, (193-211AD) who temporarily took away its independence of Antioch, giving it to Laodicea to control as punishment.

During the 3rd century, Antioch was the city of innovation. Street lighting appears also in this city during the 3rd Century AD as Saint Jerome (345-420AD) commented in his writings that the capital of ancient Syria was lit up at night by oil lamps hung over ropes that were strung over the streets. By 371AD, this invention spread to Caesarea in Turkey. China, on the other hand, was reported to be lighting up its streets using natural gas supplied through bamboo pipes by Medieval times.

China throughout history became rich by trade with the Roman Empire. Yet the history of Rome that claimed to rule the world (orbis terrarum) stood at the opposite end of the world from the strikingly similar Han Dynasty (206BC-220AD) in China, which also claimed to have ruled the world (tianxia). There is the History Book for Tang-Dynasty in China covering the period 618-907AD. Yet the text mentions 17 times what appears to be the Roman Empire . It also describes an envoy that was sent by the Roman Emperor to China. The Roman Emperor was recorded to have been “Anton” .

The account of such an envoy who visited the older Han Dynasty predates the Venetian travelerMarco Polo (1254-1325) by more than 1,000 years. This envoy has been attributed to 166AD during the reign of Marcus Aurelius Antoninus (121-180AD). It is the death of Marcus Aurelius, that has marked the peak in the Roman Empire and the turning point that begins the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire where its monetary system collapses just 72 years thereafter. This envoy established diplomatic contact at the peak of the Roman Empire from which a disastrous decline begins. Any political-economic aspirations to further such a relationship would then die with Marcus Aurelius. Yet also, both empires would suffer the same fate of barbarian invasions. The Han Dynasty falls in 220AD from which emerges the chaotic period known as the Three Kingdoms (220-280AD) – the division of the once unified Chinese Empire.

There is hard evidence that demonstrates that there was direct contact between Rome and China going back to the period of 180AD. The connection point has ALWAYS been Syria. China is also backing Syria with money. The Chinese are looking to build on the old world power position of the historic Silk Road (One belt, one road). China has never actively participated in the war militarily but has ensured financing their goals. Syria maintains close economic relations with Russia and China because of the stupidity of the West, which began with stopping a pipeline to compete with Russia. Likewise, despite being a member of NATO, Turkey is flirting with the expansion of Turkish-Chinese relations in addition to it historical ties with Russia.

As strange as it might sound, China has more skin-in-the-game with Syria than Russia. The Russians had to intervene after it became apparent that the international and Islamist mercenaries were heading for the Russian military base in Latakia. Russia and China clearly complement each other on the worldwide stage of politics. Both suffered Communist revolutions and they are the most important security players in that part of the world. China has provided the economic security while Russia provides the military security.

Syria is the focal point in the Middle East. It is where all the power meets for economic reasons. Ths seems to be the way for thousands of years.

RARE Double Monthly Bullish Reversal at 2.25%. A monthly closing above that level and 5%

The Fed is Raising Rates Because of the Pension Crisis

Posted Mar 27, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: The Fed says it will raise rates two or three times more this year. My question is this: If the stock market is crashing, why are they still raising rates?

HW

ANSWER: The Fed is raising rates because they must be NORMALIZED given the pension crisis. They are trying to get then back up and if they could, they would jack them up to 8%. If you can imagine, a pension fund under normal conditions needs 8% annual. Even CalPERS came in at 7% and they were insolvent. Rates are rising because of the pension crisis, not because the economy is really heating up or the stock market is booming. The technical resistance stands at the Downtrend Line at the 3% level. Rates will double to reach that area faster than people suspect.

We have a Directional Change due in May and look at the August/September period where we also have a Panic Cycle. Things are not going to be as smooth-sailing as many believe. 

We have a very RARE Double Monthly Bullish Reversal at 2.25%. A monthly closing above that level and 5% will be seen in a matter of months

The Spanish government will complete collapse in 2021

Germany Arrests Former Head of Catalonia for Spain Confirm the Spanish Constitution Violates Human Rights

Posted Mar 27, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

One day soon, the world will suddenly discover that the European project is authoritarian because they believe the people as stupid and politicians know better. When that day dawns, the crisis in Europe will erupt in total shock and this will undermine the entire economy which has rapidly fallen to even behind China. At the core of this true European Crisis is the fact that individual human rights come behind the rights of politicians. Make no mistake about it, politicians in the West secretly admire China where some view the model for democracy in the West as crumbling before their eyes.

Germany has arrested the former Catalan Prime Minister Carles Puigdemont enforcing Spain’s dictatorship and anti-Democratic government to save the EU. Spain is by NO MEANS a democratic nation and evidence of that statement is the Spanish Constitution. It exempts all politicians and Judges holding them above the law and denies the right of the people to even disagree with the government. Puigdemont was arrested on the German-Danish border traveling from Finland to Belgium. The state police office in Kiel announced that Puigdemont had been arrested and the charge is advocating a democratic vote in Catalonia to separate from Spain. This is the most outrageous legal persecution that has taken place since the Communist Revolution in Russia who imprisoned or killed anyone who opposed them.

Puigdemont proclaimed Catalonia’s independence from Spain in October, that Madrid says violating the constitution. Their interpretation of their Constitution is permanent slavery no different from the positions of France and Britain that justified the French and American Revolutions. Then the Spanis judiciary began investigations into rebellion and charged Puigdemont and other leading separatists who were forced to then flee to Belgium into exile. Clearly, anyone one charges with a political crime MUST leave Europe for the governments will conspire to save the EU.

Puigdemont went to Finland to attend a conference and Spain submitted an application for the arrest of the deposed regional president. Finland then agreed to arrest Puigdemont so he fled to return to Belgium. Germany intercepted him and arrested him and he now faces 25 years in prison where he will certainly die. Spain’s Supreme Court opened criminal proceedings against Puigdemont and other regional politicians. Imprisoning people for their political ideas has been the hallmark of tyranny. It is a sad day to watch the ruthless behavior of the Spanish government and its Judiciary is a disgrace to the nation and the Spanish people.

The entire problem underlying this crisis exposes the Spanish Constitution that NEVER truly provided a democratic nation for it did not provide a workable transition from dictatorship to democracy. This Spanish Constitution is a contradictory document that denies any democratic resolution or process and maintains the Franco Dictatorship. In Spain, all members of parliament, including those in regional parliaments, enjoy immunity, judges cannot be dismissed. The Constitution defines political parties as “the main instrument of political participation” (Article 6), giving them a role that goes far beyond the process of public opinion-making, as understood in most democracies.

In Spain, the self-interest of government prevails over the rights of the individual. This is the plain reading of Article 155 (see below). The Franco regime organized the Society around its National Movement and the vertical, professional syndicates. Therefore, it was not even the people as a whole that was considered to be the nation but the party. Following the dictator’s death, Spain did open up to political and trade union pluralism, but there was no real redefining revision of Franco’s means of dictatorship. The citizens do not vote for deputies, but closed lists of a party whose candidates move into Parliament depending on the number of votes. MPs do not have offices in their constituencies.

There is no actual representative form of government when you look closely at the structure. There is no actual accountability for the political party itself and they are isolated from the public opinion and their own base. This is why political corruption runs ramped in Spain – there is no actual direct representation or accountability. The Spanish section of Transparency International called on the parties to abolish the closed lists and publish their campaign budgets no later than three months after the election back in 2014. Nothing has been done.

The entire Spanish Constitution contradicts the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) is an international treaty to protect human rights and fundamental freedoms in Europe. Article 10 of the ECHR provides the right to freedom of expression and information, subject to certain restrictions that are “in accordance with law” and “necessary in a democratic society”. This right includes the freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas. However, the Spanish Constitution outright contradicts Article 10 by its Article 155. Clearly, the Spanish Constitution was no more than a compromise between democracy and Francoism. Above all, the fathers of the Spanish Constitution wanted to prevent a civil war by retaining an authoritative clause that allowed dictatorial action. The new constitution was therefore settled between an authoritarian, national Catholic leader system and a democracy and has never actually placed individual liberties in a role of importance violating the very idea of human rights.

The Spanish government will undoubtedly fall. It will be 43 years and ripe for its complete collapse in 2021. The arrest of Puigdemont proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Spanish Constitution denies freedom of expression and human rights. Puigdemont did not engage in violence and thus is simply a political prisoner and Germany is endorsing the dictatorship of Spain.

No one in the EU leadership stand for public election either. No wonder they too support Spain.

---

The Spanish Constitution

PREAMBLE

The Spanish Nation, wishing to establish justice, liberty and security, and to promote the welfare of all who make part of it, in use of her sovereignty, proclaims its will to:

Guarantee democratic life within the Constitution and the laws according to a just economic and social order.

Consolidate a State ensuring the rule of law as an expression of the will of the people.

Protect all Spaniards and all the peoples of Spain in the exercise of human rights, their cultures and traditions, languages and institutions.

Promote the progress of culture and the economy to ensure a dignified quality of life for all

Establish an advanced democratic society, and

Collaborate in the strengthening of peaceful and efficient cooperation among all the peoples of the Earth.

Consequently, the Cortes approve and the Spanish people ratify the . . . Constitution.

ARTICLE 155

1. If a Self-governing Community [e.g., Catalonia] does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain, the Government, after having lodged a complaint with the President of [that] Self-governing Community and failed to receive satisfactory response, may, following approval granted by the overall majority of the Senate, take all measures necessary to compel the Community to meet said obligations, or to protect the abovementioned general interest.
   –
2. With a view to implementing the measures provided for in the foregoing paragraph, the Government may issue instructions to all the authorities of the Self-governing Communities.

Bundesbank Warns German Banks Rates are Moving Higher

Posted Mar 27, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It appears that now the Bundesbank has adopted your view of rising interest rates. How fast do you see rates rising?

PY

ANSWER: Yes, the Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has come out and warned that banks should start to make provisions for interest rate risks associated with rising interest rates. The normalization of the interest rates is essential and as always, it is now too little too late. The economic environment is changing much more rapidly than most suspect. It is true that the German banks have increased their equity significantly since the financial crisis. While the central banks are warning that rates are rising, they misjudge the fact that banks are by no means as resilient as they were before the 2007-2009 crisis.

 

German 10-year rates will start to rise rapidly following a monthly closing above 0.79%. The next stop will be 2% and thereafter, we will see a test of the 4% level. Once we exceed the 2007 high of 4.67%, we will see a rapid rise to the 5.6% area and an annual closing above that will warn of a test of the 8.5%-11% zone and that can be easily by 2020.

Proposed Monetary Reform in Switzerland would Destroy the Country

Posted Mar 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

In Switzerland, we have the perfect example of the old saying – a little bit of knowledge is dangerous. We have activists who are clearly living in a world they comprehend no less than the financial system. These people have managed to get a referendum on changing in the financial system with the same promises of Karl Marx that this willend all financial crisis to come forever. The referendum is scheduled for June 10th, 2018 after they got 100,000 signatures. The organizers are calling this the Full-Money Initiative. They understand that the bulk of the money is actually created by banks through lending. Their solution is to bar private banks from lending on any leveraged basis by setting limits on lending. They will be unable to lend money beyond what they actually have on deposit. They cannot create money by new loans. This is the most stupid Idea I think I have ever heard. They have no idea what the Full-Ramifications will be of such a proposal.

The promoters are advertising this will make the monetary system more secure and preventing financial crises. “Now we are stepping up our efforts to explain to people where their money really comes from and what the risks are in the old system,” said Emma Dawnay, a member of the organizing team, according to Reuters. They are promoting thisSovereign Money Initiative to stop the financial crisis cycle that they have no idea of how such events are even created.

According to their plan, banks will only grant loans to the extent that they have previously received funds from savers, other institutions or the central bank. For the creation of money then only the central bank would be responsible. However, she rejects that their initiative will create an economic upheaval introducing tremendous uncertainties. Clearly, she is qualified for government service because this is the precise attitude which creates the very thing she is pretending to prevent.

Obviously, she may have a Ph.D. in other fields, but that does not qualify her for anything else. She thinks that banks lending money which leverages the system is the CAUSE of a financial crisis so she wants to hand the power to create all money to the government – the very people who are incapable of balancing a budget or managing even a bubblegum machine. When they are out of bubblegum, they just go steal some more and open shop again since they spent all the money they took in before.

Government is the single biggest borrower in society. So how will they sell their debt without creating more money?  Then we have the problem that if the government has to create the money and approve all loans, then politics will enter the scene and you will be unable to borrow if you are part of the opposition. Andrew Jackson destroyed the Bank of the United States BECAUSE they lent money to the opposite political party to defeat him. There was no magnanimous effort to save the country.

Then this idea shows truly their underlying ignorance for if you cut off lending, well guess what! They will be unable to sell their homes and the value will crash because the only buyer will be someone with cash. The town I grew up in,Maple Shade, New Jersey, was once the suburb of Philadelphia. The real estate developer was Barlow who built his mansion (pictured here) in town where my parents met before World War I.

One of my father’s friends had cash during the Great Depression. He bought most of Main Street back then for pennies on the dollar for there was a shortage of money with no bank lending. This is precisely the outcome of this Sovereign Money Initiative if it actually passed. Switzerland would be the greatest short of all time. No bank would survive and the government would suddenly find NO BIDfor its new debt.

These people are dangerous for they are just like those who want to shut down the Federal Reserve with simply stupid ideas that demonstrate they too fail to understand even how the world economy functions. The first world financial crisis took place in the Panic of 1857. This was the first Panic to appear as a global contagion. The 1720 collapse of the Mississippi Bubble in France and Southsea Bubble in England was a contagion set in motion within Europe. However, the 1857 Panic was set in motion by the declining international economy because of the interconnectedness of the world economy during the 1850s. The financial Panic began in late 1857 in Britain when the Palmerston government circumvented the requirements of the Peel Banking Act of 1844, which required gold and silver reserves to back up the amount of money in circulation. In that instance, the government lifted restrictions because the banks were in trouble.

Of course, then there is the example of the Silver Democrats. They thought that they could raise the price of silver about world levels thanks to the silver miners who bribed them. They soon discovered that people were bringing their silver to the States where it was over-valued and used it to buy gold and export it back home. They kept this arbitrage up and then the Panic of 1893 began and by 1896, J.P. Morgan organized British banks to lend the USA $100 million to prevent it from complete bankruptcy in 1896. President Cleveland was a Democrat and he warned that his own party had imposed unsound finance. The same type of people who could not understand the world monetary system accused Morgan of making a profit on the deal. They refused to see that their ideas were brain-dead back then as well. They preferred to blame Morgan for their own stupidity.

Financial Panics are global contagions. This movement is Switzerland would destroy the country and the depth of the depression would be far worse than the Great Depression. There was such a shortage of money back during the 1930s, that cities began to issue their own scrip to try to save the economy and allow people to economically carry on, which they could not due to the contraction in the money supply. Contracting the money supply as these people propose, would send asset values to virtually zero in Switzerland. They reject any such criticism because they just do not want to believe this solution is completely brain-dead.

History proves one thing – stupid people really mess up the world and then blame others. I keep warning, we are all connected. No country can move counter-trend for their will rapidly find their crisis comes from a contagion outside their control. Even communism failed despite its attempt to maintain isolation. Economics wins at the end of the day. Both Keynes and Marx have seriously inflected the world.