How & Why Ice Ages Are Created

Posted May 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The weather is still unusually cold in the north. In Newfoundland, they woke up to a foot of snow.  In Iceland, they just had the coldest day in 100 years. It has long been understood that to create an Ice Age, the artic actually should be ice-free. The Arctic Ocean is the smallest and shallowest of the world’s five major oceans. We have been warning that our models projected that the energy output of the sun would drop into the end of this Economic Confidence Model wave 2032. This has now been confirmed as the energy output has turned down sharply since 2015.

Here is the picture that started the whole Global Warming propaganda. Yet while they pretend that if the Arctic Ocean melted the sea levels would rise and flood placed even like Miami. However, the Arctic Ocean has been free of ice historically many times. The passage through the ice has historically come and gone. The first to actually sail through the water was the Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen’s ship which traveled East to West between 1903 and 1906. This idea that the Arctic Ocean is always frozen over is simply not correct.

There are two routes known as the northern and southern routes of the Northwest Passage which have been open during occasional years in the past. According to records from Environment Canada, the southern route was “open” (no more than 60% ice covered) occasionally as far back as the 1970s, and the northern route was open in the summer of 1998. The northern route has since roughly 2007 has begun to open again. The northern route was open in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 (which was a record-low ice year), 2012, 2015, and now, into 2016 as well. While the alarmists are yelling, they also do not understand the history or the dynamics of an ice age.

The real experts on the oceans and how they function were at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. It was in 1956 when they published A theory of ice ages by Maurice Ewing and William Donn. They were the most influential oceanographers to date, yet the Global Warming people have completely ignored their work and bastardized it for political gain. The core of what they unveiled was that if the Arctic Ocean would get warmer and the ice melted, this would signal an Ice Age, not the sinking of coastal cities. A warmer Arctic Ocean would mean that water would flow more freely between it and the Atlantic, dissipating the cold making the Atlantic colder. There is the key to an Ice Age. If all the ice melted in the Arctic Ocean leaving open water that was then warmer by mixing with the Atlantic, then a warmer Arctic Ocean surrounded by colder land around it would produce evaporation and that water would then return back to the land as snow. More snow that falls in Greenland and Northern Canada is what makes glaciers grow deeper. When the Arctic Ocean is covered in ice, then there is NO EVAPORATION and thus we do not move into an Ice Age.

We do know that the Vikings made to Canada sailing in wooden ships over an open sea. The ancient chronicles of the Vikings told a story of a Viking warrior who was banished from his home for killing another man. He sailed with hundreds of followers to an icy island in the sea. As the stories went, his son set out a few years later and traveled to an even more distant place he knew as “Vinland” which historians today believe was the East coasts of Canada. There have been discoveries at a verified Norse historical site in the New World which was the 1000-year-old seaside settlement L’Anse aux Meadows on the northernmost tip of Newfoundland.

We have actually a contest for the title of who discovered America first. Roman artifacts have been discovered also in Canada. This clearly establishes that the ancient Roman sailed across the Atlantic long before Columbus or the Vikings. This discovery in Canada has created a storm for it rewrites history. The unquestionable discovery of a Roman sword in Canada is rather stark evidence that history is different from what academics believed. The Romans even sent diplomats to the Emperor of China. Roman coins have been discovered in a castle in Japan.

What we do know is this. The theories of Global Warming are linear and simply portray that all the ice will metal and coastal cities will sink. They have completely failed to deal with history or the theory of how the ocean system even works. Melt the ice and you will produce colder storms and more snow that will build the glacers and create an Ice Age – not warm beach fronts.

Mount Merapi is Due for an Eruption here in 2018

Posted May 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I am a loyal reader from Java. We have a big volcano here which has started to show life. The government has just put out a warning that it may erupt. I really find your work so interesting. You said 2018 would see a rise in volcanic activity along the Pacific rim of fire. Well, it appears after Hawaii, we could be next.

PM

REPLY: Yes. This particular volcano is like that of Hawaii insofar as it is much more active. Pyroclastic flow from a large explosions took place November 22nd, 1994. Another large eruption occurred in 2006, shortly before the Yogyakarta earthquake. There was also a large eruption in 2010 that changed the characteristic of Mount Merapi. Then on March 10th, 2014, Mount Merapi erupted early that Monday causing a thick-pyroclastic surge that shot 1,500 meters up in the air. We are now due for another event so this one is on schedule for 2017/2018.

Normally, small eruptions occur every two to three years, and larger ones every 10–15 years or so. However, the real major eruptions have occurred in 1006, 1786, 1822, 1872, and 1930. The eruption of 1006 is claimed to have covered all of central Java with ash. It was that volcanic eruption that is believed to have caused the collapse of the Hindu Kingdom of Mataram. This is akin to the destruction of the Minoan society when Thera erupted around 1650BC – today Santorini.

According to our model, the next BIG ONE is probably due in 2028, which may be at the 1006 eruption magnitude.

Here is the list of eruptions since we have consistent recorded history:

• 1548, 1554, 1560, 1584, 1586(?), 1587,
• 1658, 1663, 1672, 1678,
• 1745, 1752, 1755, 1768, 1791, 1797,
• 1807, 1810, 1812-22, 1822-23, 1828, 1832-36, 1837-38, 1840, 1846, 1848(?), 1849, 1854(?), 1861, 1862-64, 1865-71, 1872 (large vulcanian-subplinian eruption VEI:4) , 1872-73, 1878-79, 1883-84, 1885-87, 1888, 1889, 1891-92, 1893, 1894, 1897,
• 1902, 1902-04, 1905, 1906-07, 1908, 1909-13, 1915, 1918, 1920-21, 1922, 1923(?), 1924, 1930-31, 1932, 1933-35, 1939-40, 1942-45, 1948, 1953-58, 1961, 1967-1970, 1971(?), 1972-85, 1986-90, 1992-2002,
• April-July 2006, Oct 2010-2011, 2014, 2018 (May)

Rome did not have any direct taxation on income and this was the model for the Founding Fathers of the United States

Roman Tax on Estate Auctions was the Outrageous Level of 1%

Posted May 25, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You recently showed a coin of the emperor Hadrian burning tax records. Was there a tendency to always raise taxes as we have today to extreme levels? It seems that our government here in BC just assumes everything you have belongs to them. We should be grateful for what they allow us to retain. That is really the attitude here in Canada. Has this been the norm for governments in general?

KV

ANSWER: Actually no. This attitude toward tax level over 10% is the product of Socialism. Even the notorious Emperor Caligula abolished taxes placed on auctions. This was the norm was that estates were liquidated and the proceeds went to the family. Augustus put in this auction tax which was effectively like an Inheritance Tax. It caused a lot of tax protests. The tax level was the outrageous level of 1%. The next emperor Tiberius bowed to the pressure and cut the tax in half to just 0.5%. Then Caligula followed Tiberius and he issued this coin announcing that the abolished the auction tax altogether. Note that the coin has SC meaning it was sanctioned by the Senate.

Overall, Rome did not have any direct taxation on income and this was the model for the Founding Fathers of the United States where the Constitution forbid direct taxation. The Roman Empire only imposed indirect taxes. It was Augustus who added to the taxes on harbors and manumission the centesima rerum venalium.  Augustus imposed the 1% tax on the price of articles sold at auctions. There was the quinta et vicesima mancipiorum, or 4% tax on the price of every slave purchased but a 5% if you freed a slave. Then there was the vicesima hereditatum et legatorum, of 5% on all inheritances above 100,000 sesterces, which did not fall to the nearest blood-relations, and on all legacies. The freedom of the citizens from direct taxation following the victory of the Punic Wars continued unimpaired. Emperor Caracalla in 212 AD granted to all free subjects of the Empire the right of citizenship, but it did not abolish taxation as was the case for those in Italy. The customs tax was 2.5% and there was a religious tax on Jews of an extra two denarii a year for not supporting the temples. Diocletian (284-305AD) removed the last distinctions between the inhabitants of Italy and of other parts of the Empire by introducing into Italy the same taxation as obtained in the provinces.

I think we all would prefer an Emperor with low taxation than career politicians who never leave office either and want everything we earn.

Trading against peg can be the best-guaranteed trade of all.

The Hong Kong Peg under Attack

Posted May 22, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; The Hong Peg is under fierce attack. You said at the Hong Kong WEC that the peg would break but not before 2018. Are we getting close?

See you in Singapore

PB

ANSWER: Yes. They are spending almost $2.5 billion per week to defend the currency. No peg will stand. This is a Monetary Crisis Cycle. We will be looking at this issue in Singapore. Welcome to the Monetary Crisis Cycle which is beginning right on schedule. Trading against peg can be the best-guaranteed trade of all. We will go over this for the attendees.

Christianity in Europe will eventually decline to a second-rate religion.

EU Migration Chief Say Europe Will Continue to Take Refugees “For Decades to Come”

Posted May 17, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The EU migration chief, Dimitris Avramopoulos, has demonstrated that politicians are just so out of touch with reality they are securing their own demise. Avramopoulos has made a speech that Europe is set to absorb massive waves of migration “for the decades to come” and that the EU will “never become a fortress” building walls to keep people out. He delivered this speech yesterday as the Euro broke the 118 level. By this very policy, the failed invasion of the Ottoman Empire back in 1683 has been fulfilled. Christianity in Europe will eventually decline to a second-rate religion. These people are just so far from reality refusing to admit that this decision is what is tearing the EU apart, that this refusal to admit a mistake is sealing the fate of the EU and will raise the stakes of disintegration by 2020-2021.

How the Rich Get Richer!

Posted May 13, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: You always support the rich and never see what they do to the rest of us.

LW

ANSWER: You simply believe the propaganda of governments. The rich get richer by INVESTING in assets. They list Bill Gates among the top in the world. Do you really think one gets rich by making more per hour than the next guy? Wealth is created through assets – not wages. The NUMBER ONEsuppressor of the people is all governments. I worked hard trying to get Social Security reformed and privatized when the Dow was 1,000 instead of 100% government bonds. I gave up. There are too many pension funds that are restricted to buying government bonds.

It is not the rich that prevent others from investing. It is always the government. If you really add up what you pay in property taxes each year and subtract that from the value of your home, you will quickly see that you probably lost money. When you sell the house, they do not count the taxes paid for decades as part of the cost.

Wealth is created by INVESTMENT – not buying bonds and certainly not by wages. Who prevents the average person from investing? It’s not Bill Gates.

You cannot play around with governments. They can change the law retroactively, do whatever they desire and will NEVER be prosecuted for even outright fraud.

Bondholder Suing Spain for the Bail-In of Banco Popular

Posted May 12, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

It was only a question of when, but now those investors who lost 100% of their money in Banco Popular in Spain are filing a lawsuit demanding answers in a court filing in New York seeking information from the purchaser of the stricken bank – Banco Santander who paid just €1 to take over troubled rival Banco Popular. This entire affair demonstrates why European bank shares and bonds are FAR TOO RISKY to own. The government demands that European banks raise capital. However, if you invest in a European bank and there is a problem with more bad loans than expected, they can seize the bank and sell it for even  €1 and you have lost all rights to your investment.

I have warned many times, you cannot play around with governments. They can change the law retroactively, do whatever they desire and will NEVER be prosecuted for even outright fraud. They are the Devil and you just cannot reason with power gone crazy

The youth have turned to renting and see the dream of owning your own home as a joke after property taxes

What Really Causes Inflation & Deflation?

Posted May 11, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: why national debts eventually default Martin to answer this question you said:

we need to introduce currency. France and Germany were less impacted by converting to the Euro than Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Why? Currency Inflation!

My question is if it is not the quantity of money that is making $1 million buy fewer Cadillacs, then what is the trigger?

Is it the national debt, being devalued by a lower dollar?

What then is causing that dollar to go lower and purchase less if not a quantity of money causing fewer goods to be chased by more money?

d

ANSWER: It is a combination of many trends. The idea of inflation is caused by an increase in money supply has been the one-dimensional answer. It may sound logical, but it is far from the actual cause. Inflation and Deflation are more directly impacted by the credit cycle than the creation of money by the state.

Here is a chart of M2, which includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds. If we look at money supply, then inflation should always exist without end. Clearly, money supply is not the only factor involved.

Here is what is known as the adjusted monetary base, which equals the sum of the monetary source base and an appropriate RAM adjustment. The adjusted monetary base is composed of the adjusted total reserves and adjusted nonborrowed reserves. When we redefine the money supply looking at the entire monetary spectrum, you get to see the Quantitative Easing and it peaked in line with the ECM.

Now let see if the money created actually made it into the economy. The Fed also created Excessive Reserves because the banks did not want to “stimulate” the economy by lending. This is why I have said the QE was an utter failure for the banks just parked the money and it was not lent out.

Now let us look at the decision making of banks. Here we can see why the banks simply parked the money at the Fed. The credit cycle comes into play and this is what more directly impacts inflation or deflation that the simple quantity of money.

We can see that the consumer delinquency rate on Consumer Loans is really the key. The idea that the Fed can stimulate the economy by handing banks more money is the most stupid idea I have ever heard. The very design of the Federal Reserve was that they would BUY commercial paper when the banks WOULD NOT to stimulate the economy directly. Then Congress instructed the Fed to buy their debt for World War I and never restored the design of the Fed. So now the Fed buys only government paper and it has lost its ability to “stimulate” the economy for this is the credit cycle which dictates inflation and deflation far more than any quantity of money theory.

When I conducted studies of interest rates relative to the stock market, I quickly discovered that the stock market ALWAYS rallied with rising rates and decline with falling rates. More importantly, it was critically influenced by international capital flows. If money was turning away from the United States, then the interest rate would move to the highest level as in 1899. When the capital flows pouring into the USA in hiding from World War I, you find the Greatest Bull Market in History with the lowest level of interest rates because the capital flowed into the USA increasing the real money supply by credit.

I have stated also many times that the domestic money supply of any nation can be increased and decreased by international capital flows. If the Chinese come and buy a piece of real estate, they bring in money for a dead asset. The seller now has money that did not exit domestically before the sale. If two Canadian sell and buy a home, nothing changes domestically. But a foreign buyer must import the cash to buy the home and thereby the available cash domestically increases with the state doing nothing. The Chinese buys dollars perhaps somewhere else which the banks create in the swap market. The government never “officially” printed anything nor did they expressly increase the money supply.

When we try to actually create a theory that one thing is the source of any effect, we always end up with egg on our face. It simply cannot be done. It is always a dance of many factors and how they come together in what combination and in what order. The Boom & Bust Cycle is far more directly impacted by the Credit Cycle than by money supply. You can create all the money you want, but if the banks will not lend and consumers will not borrow and prefer to hoard because they do not trust the future, you will be in a deflationary cycle.

When J.P. Morgan was being interrogated by the ruthless Samuel Untermyer in the Senate, the exchange showed that the government NEVER understood finance or banking. Morgan express the way banks really operate. They will not lend you a dime if they think you will default even if you have the collateral to back the loan. If you do not have faith in the borrower, you do not do business.  Remember one thing. The actual money supply is a tiny fraction of the real money supply which is created by lending. Some people BELIEVE gold is money. Other believe Bitcoin is money. So what is the definition of money? It is the broad spectrum of assets that include real estate and equities. All the studies show that if real estate is rising, spend SPEND more freely because they “feel” richer. When real estate declines, they contract in their spending.

This is why I have made it clear many times. The 2007-2009 Crash was far more devastating than the numbers show. This is why liquidity remains about 50% of 2007 level. The vast majority of homes are still worth less than they were in 2007. The average consumer does NOT “feel” richer. The youth have turned to renting and see the dream of owning your own home as a joke after property taxes for which you get no credit when you sell a house.

Welcome to the REAL WORLD!