Pole Shifts & Climate Change

Posted Nov 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Good morning, Mr. Armstrong. Last week, you wrote about the north and south poles flipping. Has Socrates ever suggested that the earth could flip so that the north and south poles move to where the equator is now; that is, has the earth ever moved sideways? I live in Edmonton, Alberta and, at one time, north-central Alberta lay in the tropics and was characterized by swampy river deltas; the rivers had their sources to the west and flowed into a large lake. Fossils clearly show plant, fern, and tree species that are now found in Florida and Louisiana. Even more exotic like ginkgo trees were present. Dinosaurs and other assorted reptiles thrived. Could it be that Edmonton and area swung to the north, thus killing off the dinosaurs?

Thanks for all that you do!!!

MG

ANSWER: We were provided the data on all the pole shifts going back millions of years. Each time the plates move (expand), a strip of new lava appears on the seafloor. It is magnetized to where the north pole is at that time. So we have all that data and it is also in Socrates. The poles shift on the Sun is every 11 years. But here on Earth, it appears to be about 720,000-year cycles for a major flip. We are clearly in the time slot for a pole shift. But because there is not a human record explaining what it was like during such an event, it is very hard to speculate if it is a sudden defrost. Some have been frozen while eating lunch, which may have taken place in Siberia with the frozen mammoths.

It is part of our database on nature which was fed into Socrates. This is how it has been able to correctly forecast major changes in weather from the historical databases we have gathered. It does appear that 2032 is also the culmination of climate change which is part of the cycle that is historical and has nothing to do with humans. We are nothing but a fly on an elephant’s rear end that can be swatted off in a second in the long-term scheme of things.

New Jersey was also underwater. Much of the State has the Pinelands which is sand. Where I grew up, we had clay pits where kids used to hunt for dinosaurs fossils since they discovered some in that area. Over millions of years, the rising and falling of the coastline deposited minerals underground, culminating with the end of the last ice age about 12,000 years ago when plants and trees began growing in what is now New Jersey.

I find it really funny how the Global Warming people warn that coastal cities will sink because the ice will melt. Again, these people offer absolutely no historical evidence to support their claims and they completely fail to address the fact that it was the end of the ice age when coastal land began to appear in areas they claim will sink.

Climate has ALWAYS changed. They are only about reducing population growth. It is absurd to claim 11,000 scientists have agreed to teach girls they should not have children. If any climatologist really signed that statement, that is OPINION and not based on any scientific analysis. If their name is on that paper agreeing to that statement and they never agreed to that, they should file a class-action lawsuit to stop this propaganda.

We have much more serious climate change issues that these people are ensuring we are not going to be prepared for because it is always the cold which reduces population historically. The recent pole movements have been drastic of late, which may be a warning of what is just around the corner. To make it clear, the poles have “wandered” in shorter time intervals measured in 1,000-year cycles compared to 720,000-year cycles for major flips. There have been detailed records of the pole movement since 1580 from London. The north pole has always moved. What is unusual right now is its acceleration in the movement has been faster than records have indicated.

While any magnetic-field flip could be in our immediate future based upon our timing models, keep in mind that we are dealing with a cycle duration of 720,000 years. Being within a decade would be extremely accurate with this type of duration. So there is no way to pinpoint even a year of the decade for that matter. The effects would be profound in technology. This is because the weaker magnetic field would be somewhat poorer at shielding Earth against the solar wind (the constant stream of charged particles emanating from the sun) and cosmic rays (blasts of radiation from deep space). Therefore, GPS would not be accurate, and satellites that monitor the weather or carry telecommunications signals could be disrupted or even fried. Then we would have increased radiation might kill off some portion of the population, animals, and plant life which would result from the decreased shielding in some pockets, but probably the atmosphere would still provide sufficient shielding at Earth’s surface since we have no evidence of that effect previously.

Polarity flip or reversal is one of the few geophysical phenomena that is indeed global. A pole shift begins in the deepest parts of the Earth, however, it also affects the atmosphere. Based on the data we have gathered, over the last 2.6 million years, the magnetic poles have flipped 10 times and there have been more than 20 times during which the poles have wandered. When a volcano erupts, the lava cools and is magnetized to where the north pole was located at that moment in time. Iron oxide’s outermost electrons orient themselves along the Earth’s magnetic field and once the lava cools down to 1022 degrees (550 degrees Celsius), this is when the magnetization direction becomes fixed. We were supplied data from sources that wanted to see what cycles Socrates would extract. That was 720,000-year intervals. We are in the target zone now into about 2045

QE v Managing Benchmark Rates

Posted Nov 20, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: The Fed buying $60 billion in T-Bills each month is obviously not long-term QE. They are expanding their balance sheet, but this is clearly not the QE as before. As a professional institution we can see the difference. Would you elaborate on the difference?

FH

ANSWER: The Fed is buying $60 billion of Treasury bills per month for an entirely different purpose. They are trying to prevent short-term rates from rising. The 2007-2009 QE was an attempt to “stimulate” the economy by encouraging banks to lend, which it failed to accomplish. Here the Fed is trying to prevent repo rates from rising to 10% again because the banks do not trust banks.

We are witnessing the Fed trying to maintain control over the benchmark short-term interest rate it uses to guide monetary policy. They are NOT “stimulating” the economy, bailing out banks, buying US debt because others will not, or anything of the like. Buying T-Bills is short-term not long-term. They are trying to artificially prevent short-term rates from rising which our model shows in underway.

The crisis has NOTHING to do with the economy domestically and it is not Quantitative Easing trying to stimulate the economy by buying in long-term debt. They are trying to keep short-term rates from rising which is being instigated by an entirely different type of financial crisis that has NEVER before been witnessed.

I cannot go into elaborate detail on this blog. I do not want to be accused of starting a financial panic for the way things always work is they need someone to blame. I get calls from those involved so anything I would report would not be opinion or speculation. Hence, I must respect what is unfolding and it has to be in a report or at a conference, not on this blog where we do not restrict who comes in or out

Repo Crisis, they are acting as the middle-man providing liquidity

Mother of All Financial Crises

Posted Nov 20, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: The distinction between the Repo Crisis and Quantitative Easing is the duration and purpose as distinguished from 2007-2009?

HS

ANSWER: Yes. Under QE, the Fed was buying in 30-year bonds in hope of creating a shortage of long-term paper that would in theory lead to consideration of buying long-term mortgage paper. It was trying to reduce the competition of government long-term debt with the private sector. That is when I warned that such a policy would fail because it was INDIRECT and the assumption that the holder of the 30-year bond they were buying-in was American. I warned on Capital Hill that the Chinese were selling their 30-year debt holdings to the Fed and reducing their maturity to 5 years. Hence, the stimulus was being exported and today, the dollar hoarding is massive. Even 70% of physical dollars are outside the USA.

Here once again we have people who have no understanding of banking spouting out nonsense that this is QE because the Fed’s balance sheet must be expanding. Under QE, they permanently bought-in debt. Here in the Repo Crisis, they are acting as the middle-man providing liquidity on a 24 hours basis BECAUSE banks do not trust banks. These people who scream QE and other nonsense are oblivious to what this crisis is all about and why the Fed is in the Repo Market and cannot withdraw. This is a GLOBAL CRISIS that they have no understanding about because they are caught up in the banks own the Fed and trying to pretend this is QE as it was in 2008 so we will have hyperinflation which they forecast back in 2007-2009 that also never happened. This is different!

The Fed was originally created to be a bailout system for banks. The banks had to contribute the money as a fund and became the shareholders because the taxpayer was not supposed to bailout the banks. Simulation was buying private sector debt – not government. Congress usurped the Fed for World War I ordering it only buy US government debt to fund the war and never restored the Fed to its original design. The FDR usurped all the power into Washington ending the purpose of the Fed and the independent branches which use to maintain individual interest rates according to their local economies. FDR wanted to fund socialism and he usurped the Fed making a single interest rate.

Then for World War II, FDR demanded the Fed support the bonds at par, which was a form of QE. That led to a crisis in 1951 and the Fed revolted against the White House.

Those who keep claiming the banks control the Fed because they own shares is so off the mark. The banks have no say in the Fed because that ownership is nominal and the Fed has been usurped by Government and is nationalized. The Repo Crisis is by no means to aid the banks. The Fed jumped in because the banks do not trust banks for another reason which sent the Repo Rate to 10% and that demonstrated that the Fed has lost control of even short-term rates.

These people who have no clue of the banking structure make up these conspiracy theories that dominate people’s thinking so much so it blinds them to the real crisis that is unfolding which is the Mother of All Financial Crises. So while they are focused of QE and who owns the Fed, they are blind to the real crisis behind the curtain. The press will never report it because it will not impeach Trump, and they are clueless unless someone who is involved speaks and there is a veil of silence here for a very important reason. So they will spin all the conspiracy theories to keep people looking in the wrong direction and that helps to cover-up the real crisis.

Even if this were QE, all the screaming they did before produced deflation, not hyperinflation. So once again we have the same theory they are selling which was a total failure the last time. I suppose if you keep yelling “QE” long enough, then might be right one day.

Neural Nets v Neuromorphic Computing v Something Else?

Posted Nov 21, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You have never actually stated what type of technology is behind Socrates. Is it a neural network? Have you accomplished something nobody else has yet reached in neural nets since there are no such systems that can identify market movements and then verbally articulate them?

ANSWER: Socrates is NOT a neural network. I looked at that technology when it was designed as a software back in the 1980s and discarded it as impractical for true financial market forecasting. For example, in the ’70s, the theory was to study how the voice box made sounds. Attempts to replicate that for computers to enable them to speak proved impossible and highly complex. Back then, I worked with Dragon Systems where the speech was tackled from a phonetic approach that was originally hardware.

Teaching computers to see was easy. It would take an image and reduce it to binary black or white and then it could ascertain the shape of the object. However, neural networks needed a tremendous amount of examples of photographs before they could distinguish between a cat and a dog or a cup. Humans can see a single picture of one dog or cat and recognize various species of that animal without ever seeing a picture of every single particular breed. Neural nets cannot accomplish that from a single photograph. This is one major difference between neural nets and our brain. This made it impossible to create a neural net that could simply recognize a market pattern but just looking at a chart.

Neuromorphic engineering is yet another concept developed back in the late 1980s. Thus, neuromorphic differs from neural networks which are a set of algorithms, modeled loosely on the theory of how the human brain functions. They were designed to recognize patterns such as trying to distinguish between the cat, dog, and a cup. They attempt to create very large-scale integration (VLSI) systems containing electronic analog circuits to mimic neuro-biological architectures that are present in the nervous system. The neuromorphic is really more hardware-based but also requires a software operating system.

The implementation of neuromorphic computing has raised the theory that perhaps one day we will be able to copy the content of the brain into a synthetic replacement as in the movie “Replicas.” The actual key aspect of neuromorphic computing is understanding how the morphology of individual neurons, circuits, applications, and overall architectures create learning and development constituting who we are. I would not consider this a technology that would be able to become a synthetic mind replacement for quite some time, assuming we could ever get to that level of understanding the complexity of the human brain.

Obviously, Socrates is a hybrid between neuromorphic computing and neural networks. I chose a different path of actually creating a synthetic network capable of learning by example but expressly targeted to global analysis. I input my own basic abilities to conduct analysis and taught it my methodology. Socrates is now free to explore the entire world database and return with answers. We are now teaching it to verbalize its results.

The Global Market Watch is purely pattern recognition where it is identifying patterns and assigning them a number for its catalog of market patterns. Besides the fact it has exceeded more than 50,000 patterns, demonstrating the true complexity of market movement, it has also proven that those patterns it may discover in wheat, for example, are applicable to even individual stocks. It has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that fundamental analysis is not only worthless, but the common link is human behavior — not the underlying instrument. We are looking at HOW humans will interact with whatever the instrument might be to establish why history bothers to repeat because human nature never changes throughout millennia.

Germany to Separate North v South by 2030

Posted Nov 18, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Martin,

Following the recent State elections in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia which reflected voter disillusionment and discontent with the CDU and SPD how do you view the German political scene to the 2021 Federal election?

JR

REPLY: Bavaria came into existence in 1806 when Napoleon abolished the Holy Roman Empire. It was at this time that Bavaria’s land area was greatly expanded. Our cyclical model on Bavaria suggests that it will separate from northern Germany by 2030. This will be inspired by the austerity policies that have devastated the local economy. However, this will only be augmented by the difference in religion between Protestant v Catholic. That was also a factor in why Bavaria joined with Austria, which was also Catholic, in the war Austro-Prussian War that resulted in Bavaria’s defeat in 1866. Bavaria had to cede several Lower Franconian districts to Prussia.

The Bavarian conservative party, the CSU, lost its absolute majority once the Economic Confidence Model turned in 2017 during the subsequent election in 2018. Meanwhile, the Greens emerged as the second-largest political force in southern Germany. Additionally, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is impacting the municipal level and the austerity policies imposed by the north continue to brew civil discontent. The loss of the CSU in Germany undermined the survivability of Merkel which instigated her demise.

The civil unrest will turn upward sharply when this current wave concludes 2021.32. The eventual separation of Germany will most likely unfold by 2030.

The Risk of War between Pakistan & India 2019-2025

Posted Nov 8, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Your model which forecasts the start of rising tensions between Pakistan and India for 2019 has been absolutely correct. What do you see now going forward?

KED

ANSWER: The history of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan began on August 14, 1947 (1947.619) when the country became an independent nation within the British Commonwealth as the result of the partition of India. This has been a divide based upon religion and there lies the threat of war. The target for 2019 was 72 years from the beginning of the modern state of Pakistan. The threat here is one of nuclear war between the two and the impact that could have on the global environment. Make no mistake about it, reason takes a secondary position to religion.

The target year of 2019 was the beginning. The tensions will continue to rise and reach a peak in 2025. If there is a risk of a nuclear war, that would probably be at its greatest point by January 2025. The ancient history of the region is very complicated. It has been part of many overlapping various empires from Greek to Indo.

Dethrone the dollar

Trying to Overthrow the Dollar

Posted Nov 7, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, you said at the conference the efforts to overthrow the dollar as the reserve currency have failed and it will take the Monetary Crisis Cycle to accomplish that. Now that Lagarde is in the ECB, will she aid that overthrow to be replaced by the IMF’s SDR?

It was a fantastic conference this year.

FG

ANSWER: The US has abused the role of the dollar in world commerce by imposing sanctions on places like Iran. These sanctions are supported by enforcement using the dollar. The US has weaponized the dollar in this respect. About 90% of international debt is denominated in dollars. Foreign countries issue their debt in dollars to eliminate FOREX risk in order to sell it globally. Both Putin and Xi want to find an alternative to the dollar. It has been the role of the dollar that drives Putin to dethrone the dollar.

There is NO ALTERNATIVE to the dollar — PERIOD!!!!! The stupid Negative Interest Rates on the euro undermined the euro as a possible reserve currency. It has been dumped internationally, which nobody wants to talk about. In discussions with major central banks and key international banks, nobody wants the euro. Negative Interest Rates have killed the euro as a viable currency for exchange purposes. The EU President Juncker has said that it is “absurd” that Europe has to pay for its energy imports in dollars. He has failed to understand that it is their own fault, for the structurally defective euro lacks a central national debt and forces everyone to look at each member state independently in the same manner that applies to state debt in the USA. That lack of a national debt where capital can park has been the fatal flaw behind the euro. Then add the stupidity of Negative Interest Rates and you get a currency that dressed up for Halloween, but is by no means a real reserve currency.

China has given up on trying to fight the dollar. They realize that all the yelling and screaming is pointless. The yuan accounts for only 4% of international transactions. The key for China is to use the yuan in loans to build its road of trade globally. Their greatest hope will be for the Monetary Crisis Cycle to undermine the dollar in the year ahead. That combined with the neo-cons trying to weaponize the dollar will be the ultimate means to dethrone the dollar

Europe moving to worldwide Income tax and international wealth tax

Posted Nov 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: As I understand you’re writings, the € is not a good currency to be in. I’m South African and stay in the Netherlands for 13 years now. I’ve been following you’re advice not to be in €’s and therefore I only have a house here that can be seen as a € investment. I still have an equity portefeulje in South Africa with a 70% exposure to rand-denominated offshore investments(global, with a big USA component). I am however experiencing 2 problems now: 1 The Netherlands tax on worldwide income: not just the growth on the investment portefeulje, but the whole portefeulje! The result: growth on the investment portefeulje are lost due to the taxation in the Netherlands. 1.2% of all the capital are taken and tax at 30%. From 2022 it will be 5.4% at 33%. 2 The instability in South Africa and push for socialism put me at risk to lose the investment portefeulje. The law is very vague, but actually indicates that “stuff”can be taken if it’s in the best interest of the people and country. It only takes the wrong government … From 1 March 2020 South Africa also wants to tax on worldwide income and if your tax rate is lower than 45%, you will pay the difference to South Africa.
Where do you go to keep you’re hard, earned money safe from governments? I’m thinking about selling a large portion of the investment portefeulje and opening bank accounts in Norway, Sweden, Switzerland just to keep money safe till after the market crash, and then to invest again into the equity market. I also remember that you’ve said that the bank guarantee would only be for x1 €100 000 and not for every €100 000 that you keep in European banks. The European bail-inns are also a big risk. Do you have any other suggestions? By the way: gold is also taxed here in the Netherlands(not just on the gains)

RG

ANSWER: The ONLY place for a European to have a bank account right now is the United States. The list of countries that will report on what you are doing (CRS= Common Reporting Standard) and what you have is as follows:

As of 2018, the signing nations to avoid are:

Albania, Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Australia, Austria, The Bahamas, Bahrain, Belize, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Dominica, Ghana, Grenada, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Marshall Islands, Macao (China), Malaysia, Mauritius, Monaco, Nauru, New Zealand, Pakistan, Panama, Qatar, Russia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Samoa, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sint Maarten, Switzerland, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Vanuatu

You will notice that the United States and Thailand are two notable exceptions. Right now, they are the only places that are safe for a European. Scandinavia is not on the list, but Sweden has committed to join the CRS. There is a serious risk in Scandinavia.

Make no mistake about it. Europe is looking to also tax worldwide income. The Netherlands has a worldwide income tax form. The top income tax bracket in the Netherlands is 51.95%, plus there is a 30% flat tax on investment income. If you have a residential property in the Netherlands, you must be careful. The Netherlands tax courts look to whether there are “durable” ties of a personal nature with the Netherlands. That excludes pure business, but ties of a personal nature such as the maintenance of a residential property play a more defining role. Residence abroad does not, by itself, exclude the possibility of being considered a tax resident in the Netherlands.

Europeans MUST realize that Worldwide Income Tax is just around the corner. If you have substantial wealth, you may want to look at getting another citizenship. It is going to get much worse there in Europe between now and 2032. You will find the push to impose a wealth tax is fully underway. Switzerland already has an International Wealth Tax which is a levy on the total value of personal assets, including bank deposits, real estate, assets in insurance and pension plans, ownership of unincorporated businesses, financial securities, and personal trusts. You have to declare everything you own around the entire world. Then, because Switzerland is part of the CRS, they will share that with every other country. Typically, liabilities (primarily mortgages and other loans) are deducted from an individual’s wealth.

As we move toward 2032, the unfunded liabilities will explode and governments will become EXTREMELY Draconian and impose both the Worldwide Income Tax and the International Wealth Tax. There is no hope; this trend leads only to the destruction of Western Culture. They are only concerned about what is immediately in front of their nose. Be mentally prepared to simply walk away from fixed assets as was the case when Rome collapsed.