NY to Lose Financial Capital of US to Miami?

 

Posted Jan 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The first financial capital of the United States was Philadelphia. A walk down Chestnut street and you will see all the old banks which have been turned into most restaurants. That was the home of the Bank of the United States which Andrew Jackson was intent on destroying. But Philadelphia continued to be the financial center. Even the Philadelphia Stock Exchange predated New York which was founded in 1792. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange was founded in 1790 but was originally named the Board of Brokers of Philadelphia. On May 17, 1792, twenty-four brokers signed the Buttonwood Agreement, which eventually became the New York Stock Exchange.

Jay Cooke was the financier of the Civil War and the first primary dealer. His firm was the largest and it failed during the Panic of 1878. The House of Morgan was actually born out of the partnership of Drexel, Morgan & Co., which formed by Anthony J. Drexel with his protégé and partner, J. Pierpont Morgan in 1871 which became a New York firm. Following Drexel’s death, the company reorganized in 1895 and became J.P. Morgan & Co. which became an investment banker that financed the formation of the United States Steel Corporation. It became the world’s first billion-dollar corporation. Also in 1895, J.P. Morgan & Co. supplied the United States government with $62 million in gold to float a bond issue and restore the treasury surplus of $100 million.

J. Pierpont Morgan became the target of much criticism and it was this image of bailing out the US Treasury from the silver Democrats that painted him as a profiteer because the bonds he floated rallied and many claimed he intentionally underpriced then to make money on the bonks.

I have often explained that the Economic Confidence Model is fractal. Thus, 2 x 8.6 equals 17.2. Hence, 17.2 x 8.6 = 147.92. What is emerging is the gradual decline in New York and the shift in the financial capital of the United States once again. The shift from Philadelphia to New York began gradually from the opening of the company in New York in 1871. However, it was the Panic of 1878 which undermined Jay Cooke & Co and shifted the power to Drexel. The New York office began to rise and with Drexel’s death, Morgan became most famous by bailing out the US Treasury in 1895.

What is most interesting is that the shift from Wall Street in New York to Miami is underway. Goldman Sachs was moving its most profitable operation to Florida and so many others are now starting to follow. The lockdowns have wiped out jobs and small businesses. But it has also wiped out the need for offices. Our model is projecting the by sheet volume, the shift from New York to Florida is underway and Florida may exceed that of New York altogether by 2025/2026 (1878 + 147.92).

The Enslavement of Fear

 

Posted Jan 20, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I just can’t understand why the military armed forces and secret intelligence services all agree with the Marxist left.  Why?

MG

ANSWER: Make no mistake about it. The left seeks to enslave everyone out of fear. The mass of the military, military establishment, and the intelligence services want war. They do not want peace. After the collapse of Communism, they did not like that. Their budgets were reduced and it inspired a feeling of not being needed. Then they needed to create a new enemy and that became terrorism. They had no nuclear arms and their ranks were the size of perhaps an enrollment in a university. But they needed to be pumped up into a global threat. They fully knew of the plan for 9/11. The first crew even drew the Twin Towers on the walls of their cell with planes going into them, advertising they would be victorious.

Among the rank and file, I get a lot of emails. According to soldiers sending in emails, they put it as pro-Trump being 70% and concede that the military will probably spit in a civil war. But the “military” does not include the National Guard. They are who Pelosi disrespected by calling them “weakened warriors” on a phone call to the Pentagon asking for Marines. Her attitude is similar to any dictator who seeks to retain power. They always expect the military to kill their own people. Just look at Venezuela.

However, you must also look deeper. I have written before about the Nika Revolt which is an incredibly important event that leaders are well aware of.  The troops inside Constantinople would not kill their own people and the emperor was about to flee the city. His wife told him to order in a legion that was not Greek and were encamped outside the city. He did. They came in and massacred 40,000 people.

Perhaps you are too young to remember the “Kent State Massacre” where the Ohio National Guard killed four unarmed and wounded nine other students on May 4, 1970.  Then 10 days later, on May 14, two students were killed (and 12 wounded) by police at Jackson State University in Mississippi. This was all about the protests over the Vietnam War. President Nixon established the President’s Commission on Campus Unrest. It concluded that the killings were unjustified. It was found that even if the guardsmen faced danger, it was not a danger that called for lethal force. The report declared that 61 shots fired by 28 guardsmen certainly cannot be justified. Apparently, no order to fire was given. They just panicked. It was held back then that the Kent State tragedy must mark the last time that, as a matter of course, loaded rifles are issued to guardsmen confronting student demonstrators. That probably will not be the case this week.

The Gallup Poll at the time was interesting for the view was 58% of the people blamed the students. Just like the Capitol Siege, they looked at all the photographs, and 24 students were indicted with the May 4 demonstration or with the one at the ROTC building fire three days before. Five cases, all related to the burning of the ROTC building, went to trial. One non-student defendant was convicted, two other non-students pleaded guilty, and one was acquitted. All other charges were dismissed. As for the National Guard, five guardsmen were indicted and claimed to have fired in self-defense which was accepted.

It was during the Russian Revolution where the government expected the military to fire on the people. Yeltsin stood on the tank and begged them not to kill their own people. The troops stood down and the government fell. We too will reach such a point. However, if you look at the actions of Pelosi and the rhetoric coming out of CNN that anyone who voted for Trump is a Nazi or a member of KKK, there is no intention of the Biden Administration to be inclusive. This is a leftist purge, and make no mistake about it, they will NEVER tolerate opposition. It is the very nature of all Marxists — they need total control to force their ideals upon the world.

The Model still shows World War is coming 2025-2027 time period

 

Model Predicts Things Humanly Impossible

Posted Jan 11, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: OK. I have followed you and Socrates for a long time now. How could it see that the 8th was going to be more important than the 6th and that the vote was going to be postponed?

I am blown away.

SH

ANSWER: I am here only to try to interpret its output without my personal opinion. I have stated many times, I am the one who is wrong not the computer. I really do not know. It is monitoring everything on a global basis. The most subtle moves are recorded and input into its final conclusion.

I use to race cars. When you are driving around the track, you have to watch every car around you. The subtle move indicates what they are thinking. If you have not been in such an atmosphere, it is hard to see. Even when I drive today I still observe every car around me and the slightest move is still an indication of what they are thinking.

June 27, 1998

All I can say is this is what Socrates has developed. By monitoring everything, it is picking up the most subtle moves. It had picked up $100 billion going into Russia in the summer of 1998 and $150 billion fleeing. We put out a warning that Russia would collapse and that began in September 1998. It had also lined up with the Economic Confidence Model.

 

Socrates was picking it up in global markets. They ended up calling me Mr. Yen because I sold $1 billion at 147 which was the Yearly Bullish Reversal which the market ran up, tested, and then collapsed to 103.

I was named Fund Manager of the year in 1998 because of that trade. We made 60% in a single month. I was named Economist of the Decade for the 1980s because of the ECM and Socrates, and most recently FX Analyst of the year over the collapse of the Swiss/Euro Peg.

These things are NOT because I am smarter than everyone else. It is because Socrates is monitoring the entire world. So when it was showing that the 8th would be more important than the 6th, I personally thought it would be over the objections. I did not expect the siege of the Capitol Building, but with hindsight, it appears that was in the works and it was the final nail in the coffin to end Democracy as we have known it. Any election from here on out will simply be rigged. Biden will last perhaps into 2022, and Harris will then take over and she will still be able to run twice into 2032.

The Model still shows World War is coming 2025-2027 time period. All this chaos and demand to force China and Russia to comply with this Green Agenda is only pushing both of them together against the West.

Military v Police

 

Posted Jan 9, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Why do you think he will not call in the military?

DF

ANSWER: Trump would not want to leave history in this context. However, if there can be concrete proof of Pelosi’s treason emerge from her laptop, then it would be a different story. However, if you look at history as a guide, there are certainly the rank and file who are very upset about this election and the fraud which seems to be obvious to people around the world. If it was not fraud, you would not have BigTech doing a Stalinistic Great Purge. They are on board and promised the banking industry. Microsoft is already launching digital currency operations.

History implies that we will probably see a split in the military if we end up in civil war. That is more or less how Rome came apart. Certainly, the reluctance would be if Trump does not have the evidence, and two if the military leadership is bought and paid for.

Our computer suggests that Biden probably only drew really about 32% of the popular vote that voted for him outright – the balance was voting for Biden because they hated Trump. Trump won more votes than any incumbent president and the left may own the media, but our computer shows Panic Cycles in politics for 2022 and 2024. This has never taken place in my lifetime.

There will be rising discontent and that may very well come from the military as well. I would say if the police try to enforce the Draconian measures of the Biden Administration, that may lead to the military v the police.

Unemployment will continue to rise into 2022 initially but the high will not be reached until 2025.

The Markets & Economy Going Forward

Posted Jan 8, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

It is beyond description that we face such crazy times politically around the world. The people are distracted between the left and the right but what is being ignored has been just what is the incentive for governments to join this cabal? What is really going on is simply that we have reached the end of perpetual borrowing by governments. Both Europe and Japan have destroyed their bond markets and Denmark, which moved to negative interest rates in 2012, has simply offered mortgages now at zero rates unable to stimulate their economy after 8 years of this failed policy.  The downside of all of this is that the old idea of saving and living off the interest for retirement is gone. They have wiped out the very foundation of credit. There is no longer profit in lending money which means the only other option will be to invest. Debt is dead!

Governments have pushed themselves into a corner. This is what we get from voting for people because they smile nice and have no qualifications whatsoever to run a nation-state. Unable to keep this debt bubble from busting, they have turned to the consortium of emerging Soros’s one-world government, Gates’ zero CO2/Population Control, and Klaus Schwab’s Stakeholder economics blended with Thomas Piketty’s communism of equality. This has resulted in an interwoven time bomb of interest rates/Banking, Government Debt, and Foreign Exchange.

When they created the Euro, the promise was that everyone would pay the same interest rates pointing to the dollar and one federal interest rate. They ignored the fact that among the 50 states, they may have had one currency, but the credit risks materialized in the interest rates for each state. The FAILURE of Europe quickly became self-evident. The promise that a single currency would eliminate volatility and bring “equality” to all proved yet another false dream. The volatility which existed in the currency markets in Europe was merely transferred to the bond market.

 

 

There is no question that unemployment will continue to rise into 2022 initially but the high will not be reached until 2025. The decline from there may be the result of a draft for war. Meanwhile, it appears that the low velocity was reached in 2020. This suggests that indeed the change in politics marks the shift in the confidence we have been stating MUST begin to take shape BEFORE there would be a shift in inflation and markets. Our resistance for the Dow in 2021 stood at 31200 and 35300.

It has been the politics that is critical to the markets since the interest rates have lost the focus. This is reflecting now who has the confidence of capital as we journey between here and 2024 – the next high on the Economic Confidence Model. Regardless if you voted for Trump or Biden – it no longer matters. We will all endure the same fate and the one thing that never changes, whatever the politicians promise – never comes true! It is always about them and holding their power. It is never about us – We the People.

The Malthusian End – 2022

 

Posted Jan 4, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

 

This is a presentation in German which is about one hour. Its proposition is that the leaders of the G20, the Rockefeller and Gates foundations have been conspiring to take over the political system for about 30 years or more. It states that the Government conspiracy went into high gear in 2017. This was sent in by a reader EAB. While my German is not so great, what I do agree with is that the idea of eliminating Democracy has been around for a long time. This is all coming to a head.

 

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This idea of this one-world government will eliminate war has been outright even mentioned in the EU Parliament as the real goal. My view is that preexisting belief was simply exploited by Gates and Soros who used their money to buy friends and influence.  Thomas Malthus’ book which started the entire overpopulation panic and inspired eventually eugenics was published in 1798. Based on our 224-year Cycle of Political Change, this idea should reach its height in 2022.

I see Gates and Soros as newcomers who have the money to buy into the club and will make the peak in 2022.