China & the Cycles - civil unrest which may start to come to a head by October 2023,

 

Posted Dec 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Tiananmen Square protests culminated on June 4th, 1989 (1989.424). While the COVID Protests have been rising in China and the lockdowns have been deployed more so for the control of civil unrest which may start to come to a head by October 2023, the Pi Target was October 27th, 2020 and the day before, the 26th, was when US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reneged on all previous agreements with China since Nixon. He issued a statement regarding Taiwan and launched a new Cold War with China. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian on the precise target of the 27th made it clear that the Biden Administration violated all previous agreements including the one-China principle. The whole Biden statements and Pelosi’s trip suddenly supporting Taiwan appears to have been to actually instigate a war. It now appears with rising civil unrest, governments typically need an external diversion and that may now become Taiwan.

How Thinking has Inverted What was Up is now Down

 

Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I was in conversation with people I know in Europe. It is like the entire world has flipped upside down. This Climate Change Agenda is something far more sinister than anyone in mainstream media is willing to print for it has really little to do with saving the planet. If you are pro-War with Russia, which is all the mainstream media and politicians, then you are now “progressive” and/or “liberal” and if you are against the war then you are a right-wing extremist. It is just fashionable to now desire World War III. Never in my wildest imagination when I stood up at our 2011 World Economic Conference in Philadelphia and put up our forecast that our model on war would turn up in 2014, did I ever expect war to become fashionable.

I remember the ’60s when there were protests against Vietnam. No way that those protesters were labeled as “right-wing extremists” and the pro-war were “liberals” as is the case today. I will admit, that at first, I was pro-war believing that Communism was a great threat. I grew up during the ’50s when we would have drills and we were told to hide under our desks in case of a nuclear attack. Those drills in grade school had an impact on me. It really made you think that the Communists wanted to kill everyone. I remember the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and walking with my friends when I was just 12 years old talking about geopolitics. It was an era of mental conditioning and we seem to be going through a similar process with Climate Change and War.

NETFLIX and AMAZON are both refusing to air anything that is anti-war calling them right-wing extremists. We seem to be dealing with a complete inversion of the thinking process that I noticed in reading all the newspapers to write the Greatest Bull Market in History back in 1986. Before 1929, rising interest rates was bullish for the stock market for it showed there was still a demand for money. After 1929 and the dawn of socialism, suddenly rising interest rates became bearish because the Federal Reserve wanted us to stop buying and save our cash.

Here is a photo of Prohibition agents standing with a still and mason jars used to distill hard liquor in the Washington, D.C. area on November 11th, 1922. This was a similar movement where women blamed liquor for drunk and/or lazy husbands. Nationwide Prohibition lasted from 1920 until 1933. The Eighteenth Amendment—which made illegal the manufacture, transportation, and sale of alcohol—was passed by the U.S. Congress in 1917. In 1919 the amendment was ratified by three-quarters of the nation’s states required to make it constitutional. It lasted for 13 years.

During this 13-year period, Prohibition spawned the rise in candy as well as soft drinks. Coca-Cola was popular and was often sold at Soda Fountains that were common in drug stores. In fact, even in the 1950s, the Pharmacy on Main Street in the town I grew up in still had a soda fountain, and I recall going after school and having a milkshake with all the kids.

Indeed, Patent Medicines were all taxed starting with the Civil War. Some companies printed their own tax stamps. Even Coca-Cola was initially created as a medicine using cocaine and caffeine. The government suid Coke for fraud because they removed the cocaine and were told that caffeine was a health hazard. It seemed logical that Pharmacies end up creating soda fountains. Even into the early 1960s, you would go to the local Pharmacy for a milkshake.

There were the “WETS” who staged a major protest on June 14, 1919, at the U.S. Capitol to support an appeal for the exemption of beer and wine from Prohibition. They did not listen to the WETS any more than they are listening to cries for peace – not war today. When our computer projected that war would start in 2014 and had pinpointed Ukraine, looking ahead post-2024, the world will be engulfed in war. There seems to be nobody interested in peace. They are now cheering for World War III. Hiding under the kitchen table or your desk in school is not going to work in a nuclear war. Everything has simply inverted. The anti-war are now right-wing extremists and the liberals are cheering war. I suppose it is part of the times when a Supreme Court justice cannot define what is a woman.

The War Against Nitrogen Fertilizers is More Than You Realize

 

Posted Dec 1, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: As an ex-soldier, whilst reading your posts regarding the Right to bear arms, Nitrogen fertilizer, and Diesel fuel I suddenly got a brain warp to the past. In Rhodesia with sanctions on us, we developed a bomb using Nitrogen fertilizer, blue soap, and diesaline. It was similar to napalm. When the change came to Zimbabwe all our weapons were taken away from us and locked up. We also had to reapply for licenses for any private weapons. This shows that when you have an informed and prepared public the government is at a disadvantage. The current attack on fertilizer, auto fuels, and guns shows just how scared the WEF and their one world order are desperate to control these three commodities. WHY?
CB

REPLY: I think you bring up a very good point that is often overlooked. Nitrogen fertilizer can be used to make bombs. They are doing their best to try to outlaw all guns. It seems they want more crazy people shooting up schools and then they demand the end to guns every time. There is no question that those in power KNOW the monetary system is collapsing. They have put forth Guaranteed Basic Income (GBI), NOT because they care about the people, they ONLY care about retaining power over the people. The EU has wiped out most pension funds with negative interest rates since 2014 and decrees that they must have government bonds between 70% and 90%. Scandinavia is outside of the EU.

The GBI is to prevent millions of people from storming the Parliament with pitchforks when they wake up and their pensions are gone. Eliminating guns and even Nitrogen fertilisers are part of the effort to disarm the people. What is taking place in the Netherlands and this insane demand to end Nitrogen fertilizers under the pretense of Climate Change is more suited for a B-Rated SciFi movie with green lizard aliens coming to eat all humanity. They are using Climate Change for Political Change.

Food - Panic Cycles in the 2027-2028 period

 Volcano Eruptions On the Rise with Solar Minimum

Posted Dec 1, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

We are now in Solar Cycle 25 with peak sunspot activity expected in 2025. Solar Cycle 24 which ended in December 2019, was of average in length, at 11 years. However, it was the 4th-smallest intensity since regular record keeping began with Solar Cycle 1 in 1755. We’re now in Solar Cycle 25 and we are still in Solar Minimum conditions at this time. Solar Maximum is predicted to occur midway through this cycle which may come as soon as November 2024 but no later than March 2026, with this ideal peak reaching most likely by July 2025.

Right now, the solar wave is conforming more to our model than that of NASA. The Sun has become far more active than NASA has forecast or expected. NASA is beginning to worry that this Solar Cycle 25 could become the Strongest Cycle Since Records Began. Effectively, in terms of our model terminology, Solar Cycle 25 may be a Panic Cycle. In other words, we appear to be headed into the strongest cycle on record following the weakest cycle. That is high volatility in cycle terminology.

So what does this mean for Markets?

Since this Solar Minimum may continue into 2024, that appears to be a very major turning point on our global food index. Most of our models on markets are showing Panic Cycles in the 2027-2028 time period. That appears to be more war than nature.

I warned that Socrates, which monitors everything around the world, noticed a distinct correlation that more volcanos erupt during Solar Minimum. There have been many studies on the impact of UV and gamma radiation during solar changes and events. Gamma-rays are a form of electromagnetic radiation, as are radio waves, infrared radiation, ultraviolet radiation, X-rays, and microwaves. Gamma-rays can be used to treat cancer, and gamma-ray bursts are studied by astronomers.

I have also reported that our correlation models also show that solar minimums correspond to increased volcanic activity. Volcanic winters take place during solar minimums. It certainly seems that gamma-rays may be the reason volcanoes erupt more during these periods. This certainly also reduces food production and increases disease, presumably because of a rise in malnutrition. However, since gamma-rays are also used to treat cancer, there is at least a basis to warrant further investigation if the increase in gamma-rays during solar minimums impact certain susceptible people or those with particular DNA sequences.

We tend to ignore volcanos since they are not in our backyard. The deadly aspect of these volcanic eruptions is not the loudness of the boom, but how much ash it throws up into the atmosphere which then blocks the sun creating Volcanic Winter.

Go to the beach on a partly cloudy day. When a cloud blocks the sun it suddenly gets cool. This is common sense. As far as volcanoes blocking the sun, well all someone has to do is read: The Year Without Summer: 1816 and the Volcano That Darkened the World and Changed History

Mount Tambora  (VEI 7) erupted  in 1816 and threw into the air so much ash that it snowed during the summer in New York City. It became known as 18-hundred-and-froze-to-death. This account from history tells the story that 1816 was a year when the sunlight could not penetrate the natural pollution from Tambora. As a result of a volcanic eruption at Mount Tambora in Indonesia, weather patterns were disrupted worldwide for months, allowing for excessive rain, frost, and snowfall through much of the Northeastern U.S. and Europe in the summer of 1816.

The global cooling altered the natural weather and it resulted in a serious food shortage that set off a mass migration from New England to the Midwest within the USA as people were trying to find the sun. Some saw this as an omen and there was also a religious revival.

Almost one year has now passed since the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai volcano erupted (VEI 5). Only now are we starting to realize that this eruption was the biggest volcanic event in human history. They have mapped the 22,000 km(2) area around the Tonga volcano. This has curiously taken place with the weakest solar minimum on record. More significantly, such a major explosion takes about one year before its true impact is understood worldwide.

Mauna Loa, which is the largest volcano in the world covers half the island of Hawaii. It has erupted 33 times since 1843 making this an average cycle of 5.4 years. It tends not to be extremely violent as many others. Hawaii’s Mauna Loa has therefore erupted for the first time in decades but nearby, Kilauea is also erupting and both on the archipelago’s Big Island. Dual eruptions haven’t been seen since 1984.

The last eruption took place in 1984, making this prolonged quiet period the volcano’s longest in recorded history. More interesting, it is near Kilauea which erupted in 2018. The concern is not this volcano by itself. We are looking around the world at increased volcanic activity for the danger is a volcanic winter coming on top of these shortages manufactured by COVID restrictions.

There has been activity which has been detected in Alaska under what has been an 800-year dormant volcano near Sitka known as Mount Edgecumbe. This volcano was believed to have been extinct since it has not been active for at least 800 years. Earthquakes began earlier this year.

Just in August, in Indonesia, the Anak Krakatau Volcano erupted in Seven Explosions within Two Days. It unleashed 1500-Metre-High Scorching Ash.

The Ahyi Seamount is the largest submarine volcano which lies 449 feet deep in the Pacific Ocean below the Northern Mariana Islands, which are more than 3,700 miles west of Honolulu.

Meanwhile, over in Italy, the Stromboli volcano has also erupted also during October 2022. Several explosions inside of Italy’s Stromboli volcano sent enormous plumes of smoke into the sky and major streams of lava into the Tyrrhenian Sea over the weekend.

Over in Russia, its Shiveluch volcano has become active and now a powerful explosion is considered possible at any moment. It is one of the largest in the Russian far East volcanos recorded and it has had volcanic ash plume rising up to around 13000ft altitude.

There were 5 eruptions last year around the world at 5 or higher on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). The first two eruptions here in 2022 were Bezymianny in Russia during May and Popocatépetl in Mexico during June. There was only one in 2020, but 5 during 2019. It appears we are witnessing a rise in global activity that is starting from a general major low in volcanic activity overall.

We have a string of Directional Changes between 2022 and 2025.  We may be looking at rising volcanic activity into 2025. We will run our models on intensity as well. The undersea Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption of December 2021 into January 14-15, 2022 was a volcanic explosivity equivalent to VEI 5. It was an eruption of a magnitude greater than the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo in The Philippines. According to a news article, the main undersea international fiber-optic communication cable that had been severed in multiple places due to the eruption had been repaired by February 21, 2022, and internet connectivity was restored the following day.

The sheer magnitudes of this eruption tends to warn that we may in fact witness a very significant rise in both the frequency of eruptions as well as the magnitude into 2025. The  VEI describes the size of explosive volcanic eruptions based on magnitude and intensity. The numerical scale (from 0 to 8) is a logarithmic scale, and is therefore similar to the Richter and other magnitude scales for the size of earthquakes.

The largest eruption of magna took place at Yellowstone at Huckleberry Ridge about 2.1 million years ago. Our cycle models on Yellowstone have turned up and the “ideal” target would be in the year 2100. The difference between a VEI5 and VEI6 is a factor of 10 to 100.

The Fall of the Dollar in 2028 ? USD fall Aug 25th, 2028. Final high for Dow in 2027-28. Final high for Dow in 2027-28

 The Fall of the Dollar in 2028 ? USD fall Aug 25th, 2028 ?

Final high for Dow in 2027-28. Final high for Dow in 2027-28

Ukraine & Fake News

 

Posted Nov 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Sir, Discussing Ukraine with a friend, I brought up the Belgrade Agreement of 1991. Searching the internet I found one article besides your blog spot that references it. I couldn’t find it. Do you have a copy? Censorship at its finest.

Keep up the good work.

DK

 

ANSWER: That is really unbelievable. The agreement was reached in 1994 following the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Al Gore was quoted by the Guardian on December 18, 1993: “Ukraine is deceiving us all” and that its nuclear policies were “evil.” As the Guardian reported that the Ukrainian “government and its parliament are already in NATO’s bad books for refusing to make good their promise to abandon nuclear weapons.” It was Ukraine that was threatening the entirety of Eastern Europe for their hatred of Russians dating back to ethnic cleansing from the Nazi era was alive and well. You absolutely cannot trust anything Ukraine would ever agree to. I have warned that when shaking hands with Ukraine, you better forget counting your fingers; you need to make sure you still have your arm. Even the IMF has said that Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe. NOTHING they say can be trusted.

There was a very real deep fear that Ukraine would not only make sure that the cold war would continue, but they also were highly radical and would use nuclear weapons to claim Russia fired first. Ukraine is a country that is not trusted by its neighbors. It is absurd propaganda that they are fighting for Democracy by refusing to allow the Donbas to vote when they absolutely hate the people there. But the West refuses to protect the Donbas also because they are simply Russians. This one-sided view of human rights allows Ukraine to propel the entire world toward World War III.

Every document you look at and the press pre-2022 cast Ukraine as a dangerous country dominated by corruption and engulfed still in this view of ethnic cleansing from the days of Hitler. Because the CIA protected the Ukrainians, they have never been held accountable, and they are now propelling the world into war.

But Adalaide University just published a study on how Ukraine has been using BOTS to manipulate the world’s opinion to support Ukraine and the destruction of Russia. Ukraine has always been disliked by its neighbors because of its support for Hitler. They have long been considered radicals and linked to the Nazis all because Hitler promised to allow them to create their own country.

Ukraine was NEVER a country before the USSR. They were more like the Kurds in Iraq. The borders they are fighting for were merely drawn for administrative purposes by the USSR. They were the ones who pushed for the collapse of the USSR, and they were the ones who immediately began forming an army of 400,000 that scared the hell out of all their neighbors.

By 1992, they were fighting to take over the Russian fleet. Even Dick Cheney was deeply concerned because Ukraine was irresponsible, and their hatred of Russians from the Nazi days surged to the surface. They had more nuclear weapons than China at the time.

James Baker went to negotiate and argued that Ukraine should surrender its nuclear weapons. There were never trusted. Just like the Serbs in Bosnia, the hatred ran very deep. Ukraine took the position that it would only surrender its nuclear weapons if Russia did. Their arguments were simply colored with Russian hatred. They instantly formed an army after 1991, and the Belgrade Agreement was finally reached in 1994, where they agreed to surrender their weapons and remain neutral, with NATO vowing not to invade, and Russia took the same position. Only then did Ukraine agree to surrender its nukes, for they realized that NATO did not trust them and would regard Ukraine as a terrorist state hostile to Europe.

Ukraine then argued it would cost too much to surrender all its nukes. They were the third-largest nuclear power in the world. They then demanded all sorts of guarantees, which they have violated today, but they also extorted money from the United States to disarm their nukes. To cement the deal, Bill Clinton paid Ukraine $175 million to return the nukes to Russia, and Russia, in return, provided the nuclear power rods for Ukraine. Of course, FAKE NEWS seems to be repainting history with the current color of fashion.

 

The Ukrainian Civil War was started by the UNELECTED government installed by the US & NATO. They immediately sent an army to attack the Russians in the Donbas. They called it an “anti-terrorist operation,” all to pretend they wore white hats. The Ukrainian people did NOT vote for this war. This was instigated by the West. I warned from the outset that our computer back in 2013 pinpointed Ukraine as the place where World War III would begin. It is now being driven to destroy Russia for climate change. This is NOT my personal opinion. Sorry, I wish it were. Then I could be wrong like any person. But this is the computer projecting, and it has been dispassionate.

For the Ukrainians who cheer war, I remind you of the story of Croesus, king of Lydia. He asked the Oracle at Delphi if he would win if he waged war upon Persia. The Oracle replied, “A great empire will be destroyed.” He took that as his victory. He lost, and the collapse of the great empire was his. Ah, how stupidity causes history to repeat. Ukraine will be utterly destroyed. Their view of a nation-state will be but a fleeting moment of greatness. They are destroying all the lives of their own people simply because of their hatred of Russians and their quest for ethnic cleansing. Everyone supporting Ukraine in this hatred will suffer the same fate. Post-2032, we will get to redesign our government from the ground up. Nothing will remain standing like the fallen statutes of Egypt and Rome. Our time will come.

 

Zelensky was elected on a promise to end corruption, yet, he has stashed more money offshore than any former leader in Ukraine. He promised to end the civil war and seek peace with Russia. He lied to gain power and has done exactly the opposite. This guy puts money before his own country while hiding it offshore, as the Pandora Papers confirm, and refuses to negotiate or honor the Minsk Agreement because fools would stop sending money to his government, and the well would quickly dry up.

The day before Putin came to defend the Donbas, Zelensky stood up and said he would seek to reestablish nuclear weapons. That ended Ukraine’s 1994 agreement to remain neutral. This was like 1962 when Russia put nukes in Cuba.

The people who never question anything about Ukraine are the same people who believed COVID was like the black plague and you would die without a vaccine and a mask. People are so easily manipulated. Unfortunately, if they were not, how would you get people lining up to fight and die on a battlefield when the very BEST they could ever hope for is to return unharmed to a family who is still there?

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Bots manipulate public opinion in Russia-Ukraine conflict

 Posted on Sep 8 2022 by Lee Gaskin

A view of a store after the Russian bombing of the Ukraine city of Kharkiv on 15 March, 2022. Credit: KMimages.

Researchers from the University of Adelaide have found bots have had a major online presence during the war between Russia and Ukraine.

The researchers analyzed 5,203,764 tweets, retweets, quote tweets, and replies posted to Twitter between February 23, 2022, and March 8, 2022, containing the hashtags
#(I)StandWithPutin, #(I)StandWithRussia, #(I)SupportRussia, #(I)StandWithUkraine, #(I)StandWithZelenskyy and #(I)SupportUkraine.

“We found that between 60 and 80 per cent of tweets using the hashtags we studied came from bot accounts during the first two weeks of the war,” said co-lead researcher Joshua Watt, an MPhil candidate in Applied Mathematics and Statistics from the University of Adelaide’s School of Mathematical Sciences. “This drove more angst in the online discourse and even impacted discussions surrounding people’s decision to flee or stay in Ukraine.”

“We observed increases in words such as ‘shame,’ ‘terrorist,’ ‘threat,’ and ‘panic.’ Pro-Russian human accounts were having the largest influence on discussions of the war – particularly on accounts which were pro-Ukraine. To our knowledge, this is the first body of published work which addresses online influence operations in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”

“In the past, wars have been primarily fought physically, with armies, air force and navy operations being the primary forms of combat. However, social media has created a new environment where public opinion can be manipulated at a very large scale.”Co-lead researcher Joshua Watt, MPhil candidate in Applied Mathematics and Statistics from the University of Adelaide’s School of Mathematical Sciences.

Fellow co-lead researcher, Bridget Smart, a Masters student in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, added: “Our research identifies that this is happening during the Russia-Ukraine war and provides a statistical framework which quantifies the extent to which this is happening. This work extends and combines existing techniques to quantify how bots are influencing people in the online conversation around the Russia-Ukraine invasion. It opens up avenues for researchers to understand quantitatively how these malicious campaigns operate, and what makes them impactful. This research has identified that social media organisations may need to be better equipped for detecting and handling the use of bots on their networks. It has identified that governments may need to have stricter policies on social media organisations, and that social media can be a vital tool during conflict.”

The paper titled “#IStandWithPutin versus #IStandWithUkraine: The interaction of bots and humans in discussion of the Russia/Ukraine war”  has been published in arXiv and will be presented at The International Conference on Social Informatics in Glasgow from 19-21 October.