Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Chanos on Exxon

Chanos: Exxon and Other Big Oil Names are “Value Traps”


  • By Avi Salzman
Famed short-seller Jim Chanos raised a red flag in a speech at the Value Investing Congress in New York Monday about integrated oil companies, saying that their costs to find and produce oil have gone up considerably in the past decade.

Chanos singled out ExxonMobil (XOM ).

“It’s still not generating enough cash to cover all its cash needs. There’s a reason this stock has lagged despite its being the bluest of blue chips.”
Chanos is bearish on the entire sector. “The cost structure has grown dramatically.”

In 2000 average exploration costs for the big names were $5 per barrel, but had risen to $22 last year. Production costs have risen from $5 per barrel to $15.

“The cost of finding a marginal barrel for the big behemoths is up and rising — a very very negative trend,” Chanos said. He warned that deals by large integrated companies with countries like Russia are not necessarily a good thing.

Unintended consequences of currency wars?


Bud Conrad

And yesterday Bud was talking about the plunge in U.S. Government debt held for foreign Central Banks… “What could be the cause of all this? The Senate passed a controversial bill that threatens to punish China for "currency manipulation" which will bring mandatory tariffs. China's opposition to the Senate action could be the power behind the big shift in direction of these custody holdings. In an election year, government action against Chinese imports may be seen as supportive for US jobs, thus garnering votes. But unintended consequences of decreasing liquidity in the credit markets will put pressure on financial markets. The movement shown in these charts could be the result of China's reaction to some of those anticipated policies. We can't tell what country is doing the selling until two months have gone by and the TIC data are published. In some senses, it doesn't matter which country is behind the shift. If rates begin to rise rapidly, even in the face of continued Fed manipulation, it could call into question confidence in the Fed's ability to keep supporting the economy. The rate on the ten-year Treasuries jumped from 1.8% to 2.2% in the last week. Foreign selling of this magnitude is dangerous for the dollar, and it could be very bad for US interest rates.”

But, to keep interest rates from soaring when foreign buying of U.S. debt wanes, the Fed is going to have to step in and buy what the foreigners don’t… Can you say Quantitative Easing? I thought you could !

Monday, October 17, 2011

Debt by nation

What distribution looks like

Readtheticker.com


Distribution area is where the Supply overcomes Demand and stops the upward move and eventually begins the downward move. Distribution refers to the elimination of a long investment or speculative position and often involves establishing a speculative short position by professional interests in anticipation of a decline of price. In the distribution area the professional investors or speculators who had previously had bought stock, sell there stock to the public. The public buys and it generally buys because of good news of various sorts. Good news on the company, its product, the economy or any news which will entice untrained people to rationalize there buying decision. The best news of all is the advancing of the price of a stock. Often the reason that untrained people buy is that they do not want to miss out on the anticipated profits they think there are going to get as the stock continues to move up. Or they may buy because the stock has reacted a few points from the top and they think they are getting a bargain. After having sold there long stock professionals have no reason to support the stock on reactions and so they cancel there bids under the market, they may not only cancel the bids but they may establish short positions in anticipation of a large decline in price. Distribution is usually accomplished in a relatively SHORT TIME, Whereas accumulation takes MUCH LONGER, sometimes over many years. MAJOR distribution occurs in only a few weeks or perhaps a few months very rarely over a several year period. Distribution is usually characterized by wide price movements and heavy volume and GREAT activity.

SP500 distribution

Friday, October 14, 2011

Possible rally since late last week

I have been long since 7th October in India (see the 6th Oct blog, "New Trades") and long US markets close after that date. Closed my dollar long / euro short for a good profit. Close my earlier puts and bought a few calls then.

Looks like the rally for the year may have come. I am up for this year compared to a 20% retracement in the index year to date.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Occupy Wall Street movement


By Bill Bonner


The Occupy Wall Street movement is getting a fair amount of press. The movement, as you know, dear reader, is a loose assembly of the jobless, the homeless and the shiftless. Troublemakers, every one of them, with no coherent or sensible view of what is wrong or how to fix it. But what’s wrong with that?

The Occupy Wall Street protests started on Sept. 17 with a few dozen demonstrators who tried to pitch tents in front of the New York Stock Exchange. Since then, hundreds have set up camp in a park nearby and have become increasingly organized, lining up medical aid and legal help and printing their own newspaper, the Occupied Wall Street Journal.

About 100 demonstrators were arrested on Sept. 24 and some were pepper-sprayed. On Saturday police arrested 700 on charges of disorderly conduct and blocking a public street as they tried to march over the Brooklyn Bridge. Police said they took five more protesters into custody on Monday, though it was unclear whether they had been charged with any crime.

On Monday, the zombies stayed on the sidewalks as they wound through Manhattan’s financial district chanting, “How to fix the deficit: End the war, tax the rich!” They lurched along with their arms in front of them. Some yelled, “I smell money!”

The US is probably getting ready for a revolution. Back in the Cold War days, the CIA was asked to do a portrait of a country that might have a revolution. It decided that such a country would have three characteristics:

A big gap between rich and poor.

A middle class that was disappearing...or one that never existed in the first place.

A lot of people with a grudge.

The US fits each of these criteria. And then some others the spooks hadn’t thought about. The U6 broad measure of unemployment is going up...with 16.5% of the population without work. There are 6.2 million people who have been looking for a job for more than 6 months.

Americans are $7 trillion poorer, according to David Rosenberg, than they were 4 years ago — and property prices are still going down.

Yes, there’s also a Great Correction in progress. It, along with the policies of the US government, grind the faces of the poor.

Millions of marginally successful people think the system has failed them. Youth joblessness is at Great Depression levels. More than 45 million are on food stamps.

People come to think what they must think when they must think it. So, a person who feels he has failed must come to terms with it. He must find a reason that gets himself off the hook. It must be someone else’s fault.

It was not his fault he failed his chemistry exam. The ‘system’ should provide him with a good job anyway. It was not his fault his house got taken away; the system caused prices to fall...and his job got exported to Mumbai. It was not his fault he didn’t save any money; the banks took advantage of him mercilessly. He may even get a “deficiency notice” — telling him he has to pay the bank for its loss on his foreclosed house.

Add insult to injury, why don’t you!

The guy has a legitimate beef!

It wasn’t his fault that the Nixon administration cut the link to gold in 1971. It wasn’t his fault the Chinese produced things better and cheaper. It wasn’t his fault that the feds kept stimulating the economy...and encouraging him to go deeper and deeper into debt at artificially low interest rates. And it certainly wasn’t he who caused the housing bubble to blow up...or who caused it in the first place.

But one thing you can depend on. Not many people will do the hard work of connecting the kneebone of this disaster to the legbone that caused it. And he won’t want to make the sacrifices necessary to protect himself from it either. (Our advice: cut expenses to almost zero...save money...buy gold...become a bankruptcy lawyer.) Instead, he’ll join the revolution.

Of course, people do not join revolutions for good reasons. They join them for bad ones. They expect miracles. One wants free money. The other wants power. One wants to see his brother-in-law, who earns big money as a currency trader at JPMorgan, brought low. Another just wants to get high. One expects his mortgage to disappear. Another wants the whole neighborhood to disappear. One hopes to see his dead wife rise from the grave...the other hopes his live wife will fall into it.

One believes the bankers are rich and evil. Another believes the oil companies are rich and evil. A third thinks all rich people are evil. And a fourth believes that all people are evil, even those in the Occupy Wall Street movement.

Some want to save porpoises. Some want people to use only natural deodorant. And a third thinks the world uses too much oil...and that only people who drive Priuses should be allowed on the road on Sunday. He owns a Prius dealership.

It is fun to mock the protestors. That’s why we do it. They are such easy targets.

But here at The Daily Reckoning we always stand with the powerless, the aimless and the witless. We are champions of the underdog...the lost cause and the diehard. So, we lock arms with the protestors and pledge our solidarity.

Vive la revolution!

But the poor protestors are just victims of history. When the US embraced its empire it condemned its middle classes. Why? Because that’s how empires work. They bring in cheap goods — and sometimes money itself — from outside. Whether they are taken as booty or traded for the imperial currency, the effect is about the same; they undermine local industries and local wages.

Ancient Rome imported wheat from Egypt, by the boatload, and gave it to citizens (an early form of food stamps). Result: the price of wheat collapsed. Small farmers couldn’t compete with free wheat. They couldn’t earn a living.

The Romans also brought in slaves. Rich, politically-connected Romans took over the small farms, consolidated them into big plantations, and ran them with slave labor. Again, the local labor was out of luck.

Things got so bad for the small farmers that they sold their children into slavery...and then, themselves. Then, in alarm, an edict prohibited Roman farmers from selling themselves into slavery. They were required to remain on their farms...and at work.

Spain ran a very different, short-lived empire in the 16th century. It conquered New World civilizations and imported gold and silver on a colossal scale. It was as if they were printing money! This easy money made the Spaniards rich. They used it like America uses her dollars — to buy things from overseas. Pretty soon, the Spanish neglected their own manufactures and their own farming. Prices rose. Spain’s nascent middle class was smothered in the crib.

Are things so different now? The rich get rich. The middle classes get poorer; they have to compete with imperial plunder...riches coming from Asia, bought with dollars that were never earned...and never will be redeemed.

America’s middle classes were happy to sell their own children into perpetual debt servitude. The kids face obligations 5 to 15 times as great as annual output. Unless they revolt, they will have to work their entire lives to pay for their parents’ excesses.

But what will they do when future generations can take no more? They cannot sell themselves into slavery. They’ve already done so. Most face a lifetime of student debt, mortgage debt, and medical debt (aka Medicaid and Medicare), already.

What can they do? Join the revolution!

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Bailouts, TARPs, TALFs, ZIRPs, QEI, QEII and now the ‘twist’? Nope,time for Samba.

Just realized that China has reached 2 years low.
So has Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton !
Surprisingly, the Brazil market has also made a double bottom. Time to Samba? I am buying Brazil !

FT:
Central Huijin, the domestic arm of China’s sovereign wealth fund, will purchase shares in Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the official Xinhua news agency announced on Monday. Xinhua added that the purchases by Huijin – its first such public intervention since a similar decision at the onset of the financial crisis three years ago – would “support the healthy operations and development of key state-owned financial institutions and stabilise the share prices of state-owned commercial banks”.
The announcement came too late for the Chinese stock market, which had closed at a 30-month low, but had an immediate effect on late trading in Hong Kong. ICBC’s Hong Kong-listed shares, which had been down 3 per cent, rallied to close up 1 per cent.

The E.U. summit meeting has been postponed to October 23rd to give policymakers more time to hammer out the details. They really need to get this right.