Cover me, cover me !

"The times are tough now
Just getting tougher
This old world is rough
It's just getting rougher
Cover me"
- Bruce Springsteen

Atleast I covered myself.

Covered my metal and agri shorts on profits today after a month of patience. The overall markets are up. Guess, the corn boondoggle being restricted by US Congress has caused agri prices to crash.

Loitering Indian markets

The Indian markets are not picking well enough. Perhaps there may be a temporary bounce. I cut my positions a bit earlier.

Patience is the name of the game. Only 2-3 stocks are holding up well.
Perhaps the lastest rate hike of 0.25% by RBI is the last.

Lets wait and watch. I am sitting predominantly on cash.

On a longer term, assuming 2012 turns out to be a cute year, protect your cash for the big kill. The true fortune will be made by buying strong growth companies on "sale". A few will make the life of your next few generations.
The crux will be to select the right sectors or perhaps shorting  long term bonds, buying emerging market bonds or junk bonds. But all that will have to wait.

Enough of Apple pie, I 'long' for the yummy dollar

Apple was sweet long enough. Perhaps you have enjoyed showing off your Ipad and Iphone.
Know what? Maybe its time to short Apple.

Time to attempt going long on the dollar gain. My possible second attempt.
Corn is the tricky bit. Truly corny. But gradually other things may crack open.
Luck, mon ami.

The flipping world economy

The world economy is probably flipping.

My shorts are looking to stabilize for now. Let see how long before I eat crow.

The Indian markets will have to follow soon. The question is of timing. My dipping my feet in Indian market is yielding mixed results.

Sharp time sensitive investments yield immediate results. But the trend needs to follow. As I had mentioned earlier one can go long the dollar. But for now, it seems to be tanking again. What does that mean? It means I will once again have to attempt a perfect entry to go long dollar... 'assuming' that is the correct trade. And assumptions are the mother of all screw ups. And no I am not flipping this time!

Dipping my toes

In the beginning of 2011, I was cautious on the Indian markets.

Perhaps now is the time to test the waters. There is strong negative sentiment. Perhaps it is time to dip your feet.

Glencore- gleaming

Larry Fink’s infamous Blackrock IPO brought out at the top of the market in 2007, just before the stock market crash took 75% off its value.

Now we have Glencore- the commodities trading giant has lead the parade this year with an $11 billion IPO. 

Continuing with the turning tide theme

Summary
-Markets will be rocky for the next few months.
-Emerging Economies are slowing, fighting inflation.
-Euro looking dangerous
-The PIGS are heading for a recession.
-China is tightening, to force a slowdown in construction and force inflation rates down due to social issues.
-We are seeing a global economic slowdown that is changing global fundamentals


If scenario is correct, best positions would be in a risk off trade:
- Long US Dollar
- Short copper and other base metals
- Short commodities
- Short commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD)
- Defensive stock sectors (if you have to be in stocks)
- Long term US Bonds are awful
- Short term will be a ride to safety