Police Officers Wanted – The Revolutionary Cycle in Swing

Posted Jun 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

The defund the police movement was so effective that countless agencies are struggling to fill job vacancies. So we have politicians who demonized the police, philanthropists who funded mobs who chanted for their demise, and non-citizens running rampant, committing attacks on officers without consequence. The police are unable to implement law and order because divisive practices and an uptick in crime have become political tools.

ZipRecruiter conducted a new survey that found law enforcement training has become the hardest skill to find for employers with 13,179 vacancies. Some cities have resorted to completely shutting down their operations, such as the Pittsburgh police who have some precents completely vacant from 3 AM to 7 AM ET. “One hundred percent, this is about staffing,” said Robert Swartzwelder, president of Fraternal Order of Police Lodge No. 1. “You have a recruitment, retention and rhetoric problem.” The Pittsburgh police force has declined by around 40% in recent decades as more officers quit or seek retirement. We are seeing this happen across the United States.

Governments fall when the police no longer offer them protection. This is one of the reasons why some cities are pushing to fill officer vacancies with migrants. All it takes it the police to side with the people over the government for everything to collapse.

This entire issue of rioting against the police is historically part of the Revolutionary Cycle that takes place in five stages:

Stage 1: Whistleblower Disagreements; Discontentment Grows 
Stage 2: Initial Conflict Begins; Economy Begins to Decline
Stage 3: Civil Unrest Peaks
Stage 4: Revolution
Stage 5: Recovery

 

The FIRST STAGE in a revolution is always the rise of intellectual whistleblower disagreement, which the government simply ignores as a passing phase. This stage is the realization of corruption and injustice of governmental rule. Perhaps the symbolization of this was the revelation of Edward Snowden that the government was violating the constitution and abusing its power against the people, constructing a 100% surveillance state tapping into every phone call and email account of every citizen. Then there was the British whistleblower Katharine Gun, who they charged but could not put on trial without exposing themselves. They labeled both as traitors as if the government possessed inherent power of sovereignty and the people were the great unwashed economic slaves.

The SECOND STAGE is where the intellectual debates prove pointless, and the initial conflict begins. This corruption has run its course, and governments have transformed justice into their own self-interest. This stage is usually accelerated by governments raising taxes in the midst of an economic decline. The economic hardships may vary per individual, but as a whole, they will tend to focus upon the prosecutorial arm of government, which includes the police, who will far too often claim they are moral under the pretense of simply following orders.

This is when history will typically produce some leader who can be a moderate who sees the problem and will often try to reason in order to reach a resolution that is ignored by the government. This further intensifies the feelings of injustice, especially in light of the economic decline. The leadership can also be seized by extremists who demand complete change, such as Lenin. This initial stage results in the first demands change with protests rising. The mobs rarely are able even to articulate the reform because they then make demands that they want certain actions that go far beyond what they actually need. This is where mobs will often turn to revenge rather than justice. Governments will typically refuse to reform and become often very defensive.

Therefore, the second stage is one of rising protests and discontent with initial confrontation against the government who relies upon the police state they have created. As long as the police continue to support the government against the people, this will inevitably lead to the next revolutionary stage.

The THIRD STAGE is where it often becomes an outright war in the streets as governments seek to retain power and refuse to see the error of their ways. In revolutions like the Nika Revolt of 532 AD, the police side with the people or stand back. In the case of the Ukrainian Revolution against Yanukovich, once the police saw that the people coming to the aid of the president were Russians, the police switched sides and supported the people. In the case of the Nika Revolt, the government called in the army, who then massacred the people and the police. In the case of the American Revolution, the central power was in England and not local. This allowed the local authorities to differentiate themselves from the British.

The FOURTH STAGE is retribution in a domestic revolution in direct confrontation with the government and head of state. In the case of the American Revolution, the head of state was not within reach. However, they confiscated property and hung those who supported the king. Of course, in the case of the Russian Revolution, they executed the entire Romanov family. This is the phase of evening the score for years of suppression and injustice.

The former head of state is often publicly killed, and typically all their ministers. This was the case not just during the Russian Revolution but the French Revolution with Louis XVI and his wife and the English Revolution, where they seized King Charles I and beheaded him in public as well. There have also been incidents of assassination even after a loss, as was the case with Abraham Lincoln in 1865.

The FIFTH STAGE is typically the recovery stage, where a new form of government emerges from the ashes. The intelligent political moderates take power, as was the case in the United States, typically based on the ideas of some Utopian system. Once again, this differs insofar as the political power was in England rather than America, so there was not a wholesale murder campaign of all former ministers. In the case of the French Revolution, after the retribution stage, even the moderates were killed by the radicals led by Robespierre, who seized control. As the French Revolution fell into the hands of Robespierre (1758-1794), he began a Reign of Terror (September 5, 1793-July 27, 1794) that would come to an end with his own death. This was followed by more uprisings and eventually the French Constitution was drafted (August 22-September 23, 1795), and approved with the Directory taking power.

During this recovery stage, the radicals are usually overthrown, and sometimes, a new head of state emerges, such as Napoleon or Oliver Cromwell. In the case of the United States, where the former head of state was not local, the bureaucracy began, and we saw the rise of political parties. Divisions emerge once again between opposing political views. At this point, there is the restoration of a sense of nationalism, but the cycle of corruption slowly begins to take root.

We are currently in the second stage of the revolutionary cycle and rapidly heading toward stage three as discontent grows.

Commodities Trade Differently

 Posted May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |   

All commodities, including gold, trade substantially differently than stocks or real estate. Pictured here is wheat back to 1200. Note that you see what appears to be a brain wave. Commodities trade differently because they are subject to nature. Manufactured items can be produced on a more regular basis. However, commodities are subject to weather, and even mining is subject to discovering supply.

Look at energy. The US was dependent on imports and was virtually self-sufficient from foreign production until Biden was appointed.

Here is wheat impacted during the Black Death. Two trends were clashing. There was a 50% drop in population, so demand dropped, but also there was a collapse in labor, so production declined. Prices rose because there was still a shortage of supply because land went vacant and that forced landlords to begin paying wages. There are always far more complicated trends involved in commodities.

War has also impacted commodities. But when gold was MONEY, it declined in purchasing power WITH inflation. When gold is a free market as present, it moves opposite to inflation because, yes, it too is then a commodity. Making gold money will NEVER prevent the cycles as illustrated above and it will decline in purchasing power with inflation that is in part driven by nature.

Consequently, even gold makes runs to the upside (bursts) that are largely catch-ups. It does not remain constant even against silver. Gold is the worst investment from an inflationary standpoint if you expect it to track inflation, for it does not and will not. Right now, we are in a cycle where CONFIDENCE has waned, and we will see gold rise with the stock market, but it trades far differently from stocks.

Cyclical analysis is all about defining WHEN such events will take place. Price is entirely a different aspect. The burst is just that – a rally that appears to come from nowhere playing catch-up because EVERYTHING has an international value.

Beware of 2025

 

QUESTION: Hi Martin, What are you thoughts on holding cash into 2028? You said cash was king, but there would come a time to abandon cash. It seems this CBDC thing is what you are talking about. Do you have any time yet?

See you in London

Kind regards,

HF

ANSWER: Europeans are much more familiar with canceling currency. Those governments are much more Marxist and have been canceling currencies routinely since WWII. What happens is you are forced to bring your cash in to swap it for the new version. In this case, it will be digital. What they are going to do is then look to see who accumulated that cash. If it is a large chunk, you may be taxed, and the burden will be on you to PROVE you paid the cash.

You are better off swapping it out for gold, stocks, and even real estate outside of the Blue States and generally cities. As people migrate from those regions, the people left behind will have their taxes increased. California is the #1 state people are leaving. They have noticed, and as I have been warning, you should have got the hell out of that God-forsaken state. They are now imposing an EXIT tax to leave. The downside of real estate is that they impose a property tax on it annually. Some states include even your car. People I know used to have Ferraris no longer because they paid a sales tax to buy it, and then you are taxed on the price you paid for it annually as property tax. If you keep the car for 10 years and it depreciates, the taxes you pay just to have it will consume half the price of the car or more.

We are through the COVID crisis when it was wise to hold the case. Now, you do not want to hold cash into 2028. We are facing STAGFLATION, so inflation will rise faster than GDP. Thus, the purchasing power of cash will decline. Then, when they do the CBDC, which they plan to introduce as soon as January 2025, they will cancel all cash, force you to bring it to the bank, and report how much you had to the IRS.

Don’t Come to Norway – Taxing Our Way into 2032

 

In 2021, the Extreme Left Labour Government seized power in Norway, overthrowing the eight years of Conservative rule. Labour won 48 of the 169 parliamentary seats, one less than in 2017, but the Conservatives lost nine seats and were left with only 36. We can see that 2021 was low for the US dollar after COVID against the Norway Krone, and ever since the leftists seized power, they have been steering Norway in that direction where all Marxist regimes have died violently and inevitably.

All leftist governments impose their will to crush any individualism. They are obsessed with someone who has more than they do. Every leftist government ends in utter disaster. They reduce the standard of living and inevitably drive the most talented people out of their domain. Every Marxist government, from Russia to China, has committed suicide by suppressing innovation, and the most talented people will always seek to leave. In the case of Communism, they built the Berlin Wall in 1961 to prevent people from fleeing. These LEFTIST governments are now moving to impose an EXIT tax if you seek to leave their depressing economic domains. Human nature will ALWAYS prevail, and this is why every single government that has abused its power and then tried to prevent people from leaving with EXIT TAXES or a version of the Berlin Wall crumbled to dust and is all buried in a common grave by history.

The Bible is a very interesting historical document. Socialism violates the Ten Commandments, and I am shocked that nobody has challenged this progressiveness of taxation as a violation of their religious beliefs. This very reason this prohibition against LEFTIST political agendas is in the Ten Commandments is because human nature has never changed, and such LEFTIST experiments have been tried for thousands of years and have always failed.

Communism first appeared in historical records back in Ancient Greece. This was a classic battle, like our modern Cold War. Athens was a capitalistic system that had its own internal battle between the Oligarchy and Democracy, which we still have today. Sparta was a communist state, so much so that it NEVER adopted coinage, and these spits were maintained to PREVENT people from hoarding wealth—sound familiar with electronic money and canceling currencies? The Spartan system was based on the idea that the collective came before the individual. This is the cornerstone of all LEFTIST regimes.

Marx believed Communism would prevail because Sparta defeated Athens in 404 BC. However, Sparta was in league with its neighbors, especially Corinth, whose coinage competed with Athens in trade. So Sparta was the Communist state, but it was aided by other capitalistic cities to knock out the financial capital of the world so they could replace it.

This division eventually led to the opening of the door for the northern Macedonians to take all of Greece under Philip II (359-336BC) and his son Alexander the Great. This Cold War between effectively Spartan Communism and Athenian Capitalism weakened Greece and allowed them to be conquered by Macedonia, which was not originally part of Greece.

To be a Spartan citizen, one had to undertake the Agoge’s rigorous military education. Only those who had completed their education in the Agoge were entitled to be citizens. The criteria for a Spartan citizen were very high. While the system ensured that the Spartans were well-trained warriors, it also led to problems replacing those who died in battle. To be a citizen, the Spartan had to pay his way into the agoge, such as supply his armor. The economic burden upon the common people was its undoing. Lacking a flourishing economy because people were steered into the military for the state, it sealed its fate with a gradually declining economic base. With the rising costs over time, fewer and fewer people could afford to pay their way into agoge.

Sparta emerged victorious during the Peloponnesian War in 404 BC, and by 400 BC, it had replaced Athens as the greatest military power in the Greek world. However, it neither contributed to the economy no less art and creativity. Then, in 371 BC, in just about 31.4 years by Thebes, the Spartans were defeated in the battle for the first time. They lost that military power and Greece’s leadership. Nothing lasts forever. During that entire period, Sparta never issued any coinage because it was an anti-capitalistic state.

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Whenever a LEFTIST government turns to restrict the movement of people by building Berlin Walls to keep them in or an EXIT tax to confiscate their wealth as a punishment for leaving since they are not being taxed to pay any fair share of the state when they are not there, the end is merely inevitable. The LEFT will always impose dictatorial decrees and refuse ever even once to consider that what they are doing is against human nature and the basic human right to live in peace.

In recent developments in Norway, the failure of the government’s economic policies has been taxing the “hated” rich; they are planning to introduce a more stringent exit tax to punish anyone who leaves their draconian policies. This move has attracted much criticism from many sources, but historically, the LEFT has never listened. Even in the United States, just look at those states that have extreme LEFT regimes, and you will find EXIT Taxes as well.

 

California in the US is an absolutely horrible place, and it is following the same path as Norway. California is no longer a place to invest, as is the case with New York and most of the New England states.  New Jersey has an EXIT Tax applied if you sell your home and buy something in another state. Connecticut has a 2.25% EXIT Tax. New Jersey has an Exit Tax. All of the LEFTIST government sees you as just an economic slave. It has nothing to do with paying your fair share – they are only interested in economically punishing you. If you do not get the hell out of these states, it will only get worse because they NEVER have enough and will NEVER change their policies until there is a political revolution and they are voted out of power. But the brightest will always leave, and in the end, they commit economic suicide, no different than ancient Sparta.

Spearheaded by Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, the initiative aims to deter affluent Norwegians from relocating to countries with more favorable tax regimes, such as Switzerland, by imposing a hefty tax on unrealized gains. Here in the USA, Janet Yellen wants investors to pay a tax on the increase in the value of stock every year, even if it is not sold. So if a stock goes from $100 to $150 you must pay tax on that $50. Then there is a crash, and it drops 25%. You will get no tax credit, and then it bounces 10%; you owe on that 10% bounce.

These people are absolutely destroying capitalism and Western Society. We have only 8 years left because this entire economic system will collapse. This is unsustainable. In Australia, the LEFT wants to confiscate all your wealth upon death and you should be prohibited from leaving anything to your children. Everyone should start from ZERO – except LEFTIST politicians of course. This is what 2032 is all about. These people are destroying our future and the very foundation of a free society.