QUESTION: Hello,
I am a fan of your research and forward it to my friends when I can. Reading your site has provoked a question..If the war cycle proves true which it very well could, and we see a downturn in Q3 2015, then will commodities such as crude and gold likely spike upward, or will they be pulled down deflationary like in ’08 in your projections?
Thanks for the great work we all appreciate it.
Thank you,
Thanks for the great work we all appreciate it.
Thank you,
AJ
ANSWER: One reason gold and commodities are declining during the upside of the ECM is indicative of the cycle inversion in the wings. During war, base commodities rise in value. During World War I, there was the huge commodity boom. During World War II, governments imposed wage and price controls so prices did not rise as a matter of law. We even saw nickel being replaced by silver in the 5 cent pieces during the war.
Therefore, base commodities would rise like copper and nickel, and normally we should see gold and silver rise as well. This time, since there is no gold standard and silver is not being used for coinage, we stand a chance that there will be no wage and price controls in this respect. Our greatest danger will be the tax man.
