There is little doubt that as we head into 2032, the freedom of speech will also vanish.

Egyptian Economist Arrested for Criticizing Government

Posted Oct 24, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Egyptian Economist, Abdel Khalik Farouk, is the author of more than 20 books on corruption in the Egyptian economy. His latest book, Is Egypt really poor?  was confiscated by Egyptian authorities last week on the day of publication. The owner of the printing house, Ibrahim El Khatib, was also arrested. Farouk has set out that the corruption inside the Egyptian government is what keeps the nation poor. He is correct on that score for corruption in governments, in general, are always the greatest redistribution of wealth ever created.

Then there is the Greek Chief statistician Andreas Georgiou who is now under the charge of having harmed the national interest! He was the one who corrected the faked Greek deficit number of -3,9 to the real number of -15.4%.   On August 2nd, 2010, he was appointed as President of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). Then on August 2nd, 2015, he surprisingly resigned from office with immediate effect. This in July 2016, the Greek Supreme Court upheld charges against Georgiou for having harmed the “national interest” for effectively telling the truth.

Of course, our media is part of the corruption in general. They preach the government line and spit out propaganda and they could care less what they are doing to the United States or the world. Hillary, for example, was perhaps the peak of corruption. Here we had a politician with the audacity to pretend she stands against the “rich” and then all the super rich stand in line to buy favors. Goldman Sachs went as far as to ban its staff from even donating to the Trump campaign. What did the bankers get in return for supporting the Democrats? Student loans were then non-dischargeable in bankruptcy and then the bankers cleverly told parents they had to co-sign for their children and suddenly the bankers own your home for a degree that 65% of the children cannot even find a job. Now Hillary advocates civil unrest and says it is warranted UNLESS the Democrats take back government. Hence, she no longer believes in Democracy.

What the Democrats did to American families was CRIMINAL. We now have the largest percentage of children in their 30s still living at home. The bankers have destroyed the real estate market and ensured that the next generation will not be able to buy a home because of student loans. The State of New Jersey refused to forgive a student loan co-signed by a mother after her son was murdered. This was not unique. A mother from Michigan ended up in the same position.

Formal education has become a huge scam. Degrees are worthless and schools just grab the money and run. They are NOT preparing people for careers in the least. Studies have confirmed there is something seriously wrong because this has become a giant fraud.

There is little doubt that as we head into 2032, the freedom of speech will also vanish. What I have just written will become banned. Welcome to the inherent corruption that is consuming everything. They will imprison, murder calling it suicide or an accident, whatever it takes to prevent the truth from being told. This is how Empires, Nations, and City-States die.

Roman Republic’s Debt Crisis & Led to it’s Collapse

Posted Oct 23, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You said that Imperial Rome did not have a national debt nor central banks. Did Rome ever have debts that were not private?

JY

ANSWER: Yes. In all honesty, it was the Debt Crisis that ended the Roman Republic. There was a Sovereign Debt Crisis during the Roman Republic period resulted in a dictatorship and a debt default. The Roman Debt Crisis of the 1st century BC has left behind a vivid account of what took place. The volume of gold and silver in Italy had increased dramatically during the late 2nd century BC following the Punic Wars. We have the first real gold coins issued by the Roman Republic at that time.

However, this concentration of wealth, which was akin to the United States after World War I and II, was absorbed by commercial expansion and investment in Gaul and Asia. A period of excessive concentration of money and large profits came to an end with the rise of the Social War of 91-88BC which was a war waged between the Roman Republic and several of the other cities in Italy (no taxation without representation), which prior to the war had been Roman allies for centuries. The war was begun by the Picentes because the Romans did not want to afford them Roman citizenship, thus leaving the Italian groups with fewer rights. The war resulted in a Roman victory and genocide against the Samnites. However, Rome granted Roman citizenship to almost all of its Italian allies, including the Samnites, to avoid another war. Therefore, we find that the debt crisis was correlated with a separatist movement – which we are beginning to see worldwide starting in Europe, but will eventually become a contagion in the United States as the conflict between left and right erupts after the November elections.

The Social War led to the complete state bankruptcy of the Roman State. We can see the dramatic rise in the money supply created during this time of war. This turmoil was then followed by the dictatorship of Sulla who then imposed an attempt to control the debt crisis capping interest rates at 12%. The previous legal rate was capped at 8.5%, but obviously, the market had exceeded that limit and Sulla had to confront that reality in 88BC. The debt crisis continued and then in 86BC, the government was compelled into default. This is when the Valerian Law came into play and this remitted 75% of all debts. The State debts were deflated on and reduced to 25%.

The Catalinian Conspiracy was thus an uprising of from the Debt Crisis. Political Corruption of the Republic Oligarchy was pervasive. The Catiline Conspiracy, that takes its name from Lucius Sergius Catiline (108-62 BC) who had unsuccessfully attempted to overthrow the Republic during which Marcus Tullius Cicero (106-43BC) was consul in 63 BC. Catiline served under Pompey’s father in the Social War of 89 BC and it is said he became such a zealot in Sulla’s proscriptions, he killed his own brother-in-law. He was a praetor in 68 BC, governor of Africa 67-66 BC, but could not run for election in 65 or 64 BC for consul when charges of extortion were pending which seemed to be intentionally designed to prevent him from running. Later, he was cleared of all charges.

Catiline was also against the oligarchy. Rumors were planted that he intended to kill the consuls and seize power in 65. However, there was never any evidence of this so-called First Catilinarian Conspiracy. It is significant, however, that there is even an allegation that predates the conflict. In 64 BC, Catiline stood for election against Cicero after all charges were dismissed, but lost. He stood for the elections again the following year, yet lost again.

Cicero was his opponent, and we must not forget that. Catiline was a popular man of the people and advocated for the cancellation of debt. He attracted the old victims of Sulla’s proscriptions who were dispossessed of their property. So we must understand that there was a brewing debt crisis in Rome and the oligarchy was determined to keep power at any cost. Cicero was counsel in 63 BC and he employed spies and informers making it very personal to attack Catiline. Whether Cicero even acted in an ethical manner is highly questionable when one resorts to spies and KGB informers tactics. Cicero on October 21^st, 63 BC stood before the Senate and denounced Catiline charging him with treason and was granted what the Romans called the “ultimate decree” that was essentially a declaration of martial law – Dictatorship.

Catiline was quite popular. He had the support of Gaius Antonius and some of the tribunes were already following his line working for the cancellation of debts, as noted by historian Cassius Dio (Historia Romana 37,25,4). He was clearly sharing this idea with Crassus and Caesar and their view of the corruption within the oligarchy cannot be ignored. Cicero was the leader of a party known as the “Concord of the Orders” claiming to be the party of law and order. This was a life-long source of pride of Cicero. We must also understand that Catiline tried the constitutional approach and stood for elections against Cicero twice and lost. He clearly knew that the opposition included Pompey. Note keenly that the thrust was the cancellation of debts. The constitutional course of elections was always subject to bribery.

Catiline tried the constitutional approach. When Cicero accused him of being a threat to the Republic and guilty of treason, Catiline fled Rome on November 8^th and joined a gathering of destitute veterans whom the oligarchy had never lived up to their promises of pensions. Despite the fact that the Senate handed the “ultimate decree” to Cicero, it does not appear from the contemporary accounts that the Senate fully believed in this Catiline
Conspiracy created by Cicero.

On December 3^rd, Cicero’s informers and spies managed to get signed documents, or so they claimed, of others involved in the Catiline Conspiracy. Cicero won the Senate, arrested those, he alleged, signed the documents, and had them executed by December 5^th and mobilized an army to attack Catiline. In January 62 BC, Catiline was attacked by Gaius Antonius Hybrida who commanded the Republican army and was killed in the battle at Pistoria. The victors portrayed those senators who sided with Catiline as the men who were facing bankruptcy. Cicero essentially eliminated any idea of revolution against corruption, and recast it as a bunch of losers who were bankrupts.

The risk that the British pound will no longer exit arrives in 2029.

The End of Britain with 2nd Referendum on BREXIT?

Posted Oct 21, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

As many as 670,000 people protested in London to call for a second Brexit referendum. Our computer is showing that a second referendum will vote to remain but this is most likely because they will rig the vote. This is in conflict with our economic model which shows that BREXIT should still win. Keep in mind that we have crossed the Rubicon in politics here in 2018. The chances of any election actually being honest and fair is highly unlikely.

Of course, these people are just brainwashed. They are completely ignorant of the fact that remaining in the EU will be the death of Britain. They listen to the like of Tony Blair and are really too stupid to understand what they are protesting for. The economic growth of Britain has steadily declined ever since joining the EU. We have provided this chart to the British press and not a single person, even politicians, has made this chart public. But worse still, Britain is resented in the EU because without Britain Europe would have been lost both to Hitler as well as Napoleon.

All the history aside, any trade deal can only be subjected to a veto of 28 member states. Britain cannot reach a trade deal on its own terms with anyone for they can be stopped by the raising of just one hand. Britain will also see its financial market destroyed for Brussels was to be able to outlaw short-selling to protect the Euro by decree.

On top of that, Britain loses just about every court ruling by the European Court. And as for migrants, the number one name in Britain among newborns has been Mohamed.

The British pound had really been just a unit-of-account prior to 1489. It was literally one pound of “sterling” silver .925 fine. The first one-pound coin appeared in gold and was issued in 1489 by Henry VII. The risk that the British pound will no longer exit arrives in 2029.

China & the Hidden Debt Crisis in the Provinces

Posted Oct 19, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Sovereign Debt Crisis in China among the provisional governments is alive and well. The off-balance sheet government liabilities in the regions amounted to an estimated 40 trillion yuan which is almost $6 trillion. Some are calling this a “gigantic credit risk” which is a hidden liability. This represents 60% of  GDP which bypasses the debt-to-GDP ratio set by the central government on the provinces. They have created financial vehicles called LGFVs. Beijing has focused on shadow banks, regulatory loopholes, and hidden bad loans. They have curbed the shadow banking and brought the BitCoin outflow down. However, the Beijing government has only been able to reduce the credit risks associated with LGFVs marginally. The current view is that it will take China up to a decade or more to deal with the problem of LGFVs, as we enter this debt crisis cycle between 2019 and 2021, the pressure will build much sooner.

Nevertheless, we see that this debt crisis is what is holding back China short-term. Once this adjustment is addressed, we will still see China emerge as the Financial Capital of the World after 2032.

What is Wrong with Formal Education

Posted Oct 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I too am French and nobody in school ever connected the weather to the defeat of Napoleon even with so many deaths on his failed invasion of Russia. History is interesting, but it seems to be taught based upon some political agenda. What would you recommend for students to study since the formal education system is such a failure?

PG

ANSWER: Yes, when I was in Paris, I was asked if I would debate the top three economic students. I agreed. However, instead of a confrontation for TV viewers, it turned out to be a question session of how to fix the French economy conceding that what they were being taught was wrong.

From a historical viewpoint, I always refer to contemporary writers. However, you must keep in mind that history is very often written only by the victor. We all learn quite a lot about history in school, but it is typically slanted. Nevertheless, it is also true that who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it. However, those of us who know history are also doomed to watch others repeat it. Ever since man has done anything, there has been someone nearby going “huh, maybe I should write this down.”

The way to understand the past REQUIRES a discipline that embraces all the fields of science. Back in the 1980s, I attended a lecture by a Scientist on the findings of the ice core samples from Greenland. When they disp[layed a graf of the energy output of the sun and documented from the ice core samples, I was stunned. I approached the presenter and informed them that their chart projected the rise and fall of empires which matched the Economic Confidence Model.

Back in the 1980s, I knew the model worked, but I could not explain why other than simply saying there were cycles. Suddenly, I saw history impacted by weather. I knew the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake set off the Panic of 1907 due to capital flows and that led to the creation of the Federal Reserves with all its branches that operated independently to manage the capital flows internally within the nation.

By keeping an open mind, I began to look at every field of science for explanations. By putting everything together, the picture became focused and suddenly the light went off. The key is being a diverse explorer. School is the opposite. I would go to Physics class and the professor would say nothing is random. Einstein said he did not believe God played dice with the universe. I then went to economics class and the professor said everything is random so don’t bother trying to forecast something. Because it’s random, that meant government could and should manipulate society to eliminate recessions. They have not succeeded in doing so even once

Understanding How Free Trade is Circumvented

Posted Oct 11, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Martin,
I just read your blog on the new NAFTA. One important point that you missed is the control the new agreement gives to the US over Canada in it’s trade deals it makes with other countries, (China being the target) The US gets to review all deals before they are signed and give their blessing or veto them if they feel they are not in the US best interest. Canada has to do what the US says or they risk being cut out of the new NAFTA. Basically, Canada has signed over its rights as a country to deal with other countries without the US’s blessing.
You have mentioned on many occasions to be prepared or positioned for the up and coming world events that will destroy people’s wealth. Will you be giving some insight or specifics as how to prepare? The time feels like it is nearing and I for one don’t feel prepared.

Thanks to you and your team for all the efforts and information that you share with us, little people.
C

ANSWER: The terms of this new trade agreement does include a veto clause. But it is not as sinister as you may suspect. In the world of hackers, you reroute your traffic through various different countries so it cannot be traced definitively to the sources despite what the Democrats, NSA, and CIA all say about Russian hacking.

Trade is exactly the same problem. China could circumvent a trade deal with the USA by offering a bribe to Canada, and then Canda becomes the importer to circumvent the trade deals with China. This is the whole problem with trade and it stems from the same complexity that I warned the Fed’s buying in of US Treasury bonds to “stimulate” the economy would NOT create inflation. The “assumption”was that ALL BONDS were owned by Americans. But when up to 40% of such bonds are held outside the USA, the “stimulation” becomes exported.

The European Central Bank has maintained its stupid Quantitative Easing with no luck for 10 years. We have major banking clients in Europe. Some moved money to their IS branch and then deposited the cash in the Fed’s excess reserves. Others have now called us in because they ran off any bought Emerging Market Debt, particularly Turkey, to compensate for domestic losses in real estate loans that remain unperforming. Borders mean nothing and then you introduce trade negotiations and traditional politicians are completely lost.

Trump is a real live businessman. He understands that much about how to play the international markets. This new clause was a reflection of reality. It is not turning Canada into a subservient vassal country. As long as we are going to have something LESS THAN Free Trade because every country wants to protect its own special interests, then we have to have such clauses to prevent others from exploiting a trade agreement between two countries.

Grand Unified Theory or the Theory of Everything

Global Warming – Court Orders – Pathetic Analysis

Posted Oct 11, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

In the Netherlands, the high court has now ordered the Dutch Government to cut greenhouse gases by 25% before end 2020. The court called it a Violation of the duty of care pursuant to articles 2 and 8 ECHR. The state must now further reduce greenhouse gases. Then we have the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that now says coal-fired electricity must end by 2050 if we are to limit global warming rises to 1.5C. They have NEVER heard of cycles and they simply project whatever trend is in motion will stay in motion. They never take nature into account and ignore everything else in the entire world not to mention volcanoes.

Rather than actually outlaw anything, the governments prefer to PUNISH people, which is far more profitable, by raising taxes dramatically. Now a Harvard study shows that large-scale Wind Farms also raise the temperature.

The way you do research is you test EVERY connection – you do not start with a presumption and then go off and try to prove something. On top of that, there are cycles to absolutely everything. There is nothing void of a cyclical nature.

Indeed, the 20th century will be remembered for four scientific revolutions–Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, Chaos and Fractal Geometry. The Father of Chaos Theory is Edward Norton Lorenz (1917–2008) who was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems.

During the 1950s, Lorenz observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper Deterministic Non-periodic Flow in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.

This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model the atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner revealing a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe. The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a 3-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension time in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) yet simultaneously there is a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in the light where it is both a waveform and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand – or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.

Lorenz also discovered in 1969, that very minor differences in a dynamic nonlinear system, which would include the economy, could trigger vast and often unsuspected drastic results. These observations ultimately led him to formulate what became known as the term Butterfly Effect in 1969 regarding this fascinating discovery. Very tiny changes in what might appear to be minor data at the outset had a ripple effect throughout the entire system creating a substantially different outcome. This term grew out of an academic paper he presented in 1972 entitled: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?”

Chaos theory was thus born. The Butterfly Effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions whereby a very small change at one place in a nonlinear system can result in large differences to a later state. The effect derives its name from the theoretical example of a hurricane’s formation being contingent on whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks before. Lorenz’s early insights marked the beginning of a new field of study that impacted not just the field of mathematics but virtually every branch of science–biological, physical and social. In meteorology, these discoveries have led some to presume that it may be fundamentally impossible to predict weather beyond two or three weeks with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, such assumptions ignore the duality structure and the true importance of the Strange Attractor.

Lorenz demonstrated the profound realization that may be far more important than Einstein’s Relativity or even the discovery of Quantum Mechanics is matched only by Fractal Geometry. Lorenz demonstrated that the very idea of a deterministic system with formal predictability limitations does not actually exist; in other words, the Cartesian universe. I believe that Lorenz’s discoveries have overshadowed both relativity and quantum mechanics for they have truly opened the door to the Grand Unified Theory or the Theory of Everything if someone is willing to take that first step through the door.

Cyclical Analysis is the key to understanding the universe for it is the very essence of how all energy moves. It is the wave in light, but it is the attempt to predict where the particle will appear in the wave formation. If we look at the atomic structure it is the same design structure we see at the planetary level. The structural design and integrity are the same on all levels. In other words, it is fractal in composition. The same pattern repeated over and over again.

It is really pathetic how these charlatans ignore science on every level to produce a forecast that only puts money in their pockets. NOBDOY will fund anything to the contrary because governments are not interested unless it puts money in their pockets