Interest rates - 2013

 

Posted on January 4, 2013 by Martin Armstrong

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2013 will be the Pi (π) target year for the low in interest rates from the 1981 high. The key in this giant financial crisis is still Europe. Marxism has failed. Russia & China faced that in 1989. The West has to learn this lessen as well. As a whole, Europe will post the lowest economic growth of any region in the world and in real terms will be NEGATIVE. Everything is pointing to a turn in interest rates in 2013. That is when the fun will begin. Obama and France are leading the world down the path of sheer doom.

This is the key. Those that keep preaching gold at $30,000, have been saying the same thing forever and when they are wrong it is some conspiracy. Gold will NEVER rise until there is a real crisis. That begins ONLY when interest rates turn. The same with those constantly preaching 10 cents on the dollar for the Dow. To get that kind of move requires interest rates at a peak, not a low. Here is a chart of the call money rates. EVERY panic sell off comes from high rates at the peak and the collapse in rates follows asset prices because capital flees to government as we saw in 2007. To get that today means interest rates will go NEGATIVE. You will have to pay the government 2% to hold your money. Can you really imagine that

2013- Deflation

Martin Armstrong

This is part of the final stages of DEFLATION. As debt defaulted in 1931, the INFLATIONARY turn around took about two years to unfold. As it stands right now, this downgrade is still reflecting the collapse in asset values. As sovereign debt is downgraded, the resale value of existing debt declines. This not only undermines the banks giving them incentives to avoid sovereign debt investment, but pension funds are hit as their asset values also decline. Thus, this is very much the final stage of DEFLATION. Inflation starts only when the majority of bond holders begin to realize that they are better off with private assets. This will make the shift from PUBLIC to PRIVATE asset investment come alive.

No government debt will be safe! Nobody will ever pay off anything. It is merely a question of time. That appears to be coming next year – 2013. By 2017, we may end up with a new World Monetary System.