The Future – Post 2032 – A New Beginning? - Population models suggest up to a 50% reduction perhaps as soon as 2040.

 

Posted Jul 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Will you explain what Socrates foresees for after 2032 at this year’s WEC in November? I’m more concerned about my grandkids. A lot of people seem to be plagiarizing you these days. But all they have to offer is an opinion and we all have opinions. Socrates has been the only thing that has ever been consistently correct.

TH

ANSWER: I have warned that the Economic Confidence Model and how markets even trade themselves is always fractal. We are completing the end of the BIG ONE. I think a lot of people are starting to see this too. The End of the World is by no means the END. It is just the point in history where it all begins again. We can see that Biden is probably the instrument of death, or should I say those who write his executive orders and cheat sheets. They are obsessed with climate change and are deliberately trying to destroy our capacity to produce and use fossil fuels. 

The hatred and division in our society is just insane. We have celebrities canceling the 4th of July over abortion. The very law that the Supreme Court ruled on limited abortion to 15 weeks. They seem to think they have the right to kill a child up to birth. Bette Midler started a controversy on Twitter by posting: “They don’t call us ‘women’ anymore; they call us ‘birthing people’ or ‘menstruators,’ and even ‘people with vaginas!’ Don’t let them erase you! Every human on earth owes you.” The world has gone insane, and all these labels only divide society, creating one group against another. This is the total destruction of society and these people are so stupid, that they cannot see what they are doing because of their own deranged views.

There is an ebb and flow to civilization. We all come together because it benefits all of us, and then it falls apart when one group begins to exploit another. This is the basic rhythm of civilization. As taxes are low and the economy booms in the city, the youth are attracted to the city and leave their parents on the farms or suburbs and head off to make their fortune in the world. Rome became the largest city in history, reaching a population in excess of 1 million by its peak in 180 AD. It had crossed that 1 million mark in 133 AD during the reign of Hadrian (117-138AD).

With the death of Marcus Aurelius (161-180 AD) in 180 AD, the decline and fall began just 51.6 years after it exceeded one million people. The crazy emperor Commodus (177-192 AD) followed his father. Like the Democrats today who attack anyone who supported Trump and are still running against Trump in 2022, Commodus did the same, and anyone who had supported his father he attacked. Today, Liz Cheney, who is as evil as her father in my opinion, is today’s Commodus. She is the destroyer of civilization, for her personal hatred of Trump is dividing the nation and will ensure that people like her will end the United States as we have known it. Cheney will unleash civil war if she really thinks that she can prevent Trump from running imprisoning over 300 people already for entering the Capitol on January 6. Not even their hated Putin even did that to protesters. This will lead to civil war.

Edward Gibbon wrote in his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” about the son of Marcus Aurelius and how he set in motion the collapse of Rome. He wrote of Commodus (177-192AD):

“distinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse”

(Book 1, Chapter 4).

We see the same hatred spewing from Cheney’s mouth and with the Democrats. Nobody seems to understand what makes civilization work. They are dividing civilization for personal hatred and gain and in the process fulfilling the cycle that will end civilization as we know it.

Rome was the largest city in ancient times. It eventually collapsed to a population of just 15,000 during the middle ages. The city of London, England, was the first city to reach a population again of one million and it took nearly 6 waves of 309.6 years. London reached the 1 million mark in 1810 during the reign of George III (1760-1820) and in comparison, New York City finally reached that level in 1875 thanks to all the people fleeing Europe. We once again are approaching the peak in civilization and what will come after 2032 will be once more the disintegration of civilization.

Rome fell and broke up into small enclaves that ushered in the feudal system. People became serfs for the common protection of a landlord and his castle. We still retain the word “landlord” to this very day. We will see a new world where countries will no longer exist as we know them and they will all divide and separate into localized jurisdictions lacking the strength of central power.

There will be battles over separation. About 86 years from the peak of Rome, it was divided into three segments. Then there were battles to reunite the empire. Then Constantine divided the empire by moving the capital to Constantinople, which is today Istanbul. Even when Russia fell, it divided regions along the lines of the original countries that were conquered.

Globalization will come to an end and we’re already witnessing this with the Biden sanctions on Russia that have caused inflation and divided the world economy in two. We will witness a return to make the manufacture of various goods locally for each division as well as growing their own food. Energy may revert back to wood and oil for there will be no major power grids as they become localized.

Our population models suggest up to a 50% reduction perhaps as soon as 2040. The population is already shrinking and aging in all the major industrialized nations. Just as in ancient Rome, the first Emperor Augustus issued Family Laws because as an economy expands, the birthrate declines. We see many young girls professing they do not want children. This too is part of the cycle, but they will die alone for children historically were the foundation of civilization as they were charged with taking care of their parents. This is what socialism has done — destroyed the family unit.

I often am asked, how can we prevent the trend. Unfortunately, we cannot. It is far greater than anyone can correct. People like Jessica Chastain are all about them. Without children, her luxurious lifestyle will crumble and she will face the stark reality of how civilization has survived with children taking care of their parents. Even in China, the one-child rule significantly altered its future. While that has now been repealed, the damage long-term is profound.

This will be a NEW BEGINNING for civilization. We will get to rewrite the form of government of the future. This will be a 309.6-year Private Wave, which will be volatile, but our current form of Republics that pretend they are democracies are coming to an end. These are the most corrupt forms of government known in history. They will no longer exist. We will see an admixture of dictatorships/monarchies and democracies.

Population & Social Security – Civil Unrest. 509% reduction in the population by 2040 in USA

 

Posted May 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Dear Martin and AE Team,
Thank you for everything you do and have done for us, the little people.
My question is this. As you/Socrates have predicted the fall of governments on a global scale, along with the collapse in confidence, of which I am the poster child for, I was a lifelong Democrat, but no longer, I have completely lost all confidence in our government. My concern is what do you or Socrates think is going to happen to Social Security. I will be turning 62 very soon and think that given everything that is going on, I should take what I can get NOW, because it doesn’t look like Social Security will be around after 2033. Does Socrates have any predictions on this. I would think there are a lot of other AE subscribers in the same predicament. Any opinion (not advice) on this would be gratefully appreciated.

Thank you very much,

TH

ANSWER #1: It is a difficult question. Inflation will erode what you get anyhow. But there will come a point in time when the whole thing goes belly-up. It was January 1935, when President Roosevelt sent his “Economic Security Bill” to Capitol Hill. On August 14th, 1935 (1935.619) President Roosevelt signed the bill into law at a ceremony in the White House Cabinet Room. The likelihood of SS coming to a complete end will be 2029.6. Just keep in mind that they will pay only what is owed and they will not take into account real inflation. Just ask those who were promised pensions from Venezuela. When they were finally paid, what would have covered a month’s living expenses would buy a cup of coffee.

The problem that we have with Social Security is that the entire system is a Ponzi Scheme. It needs population growth to keep paying taxes to pay for the previous generation. As you know, I was called in to reform Social Security and turn it into a wealth fund that actually invested back in the Nineties. The Democrats would not vote for it claiming it was more secure investing in government binds exclusively, and if it was privatized they wanted to change the fund managers when they go back in power. The whole thing was a joke.

QUESTION #2: Mr. Armstrong, it is becoming obvious that _______ no longer publish your forecasts because they are like the Biden Administration and will only publish people taking your work as long as they claim gold will rise to $40,000. If I remember correctly, you said the postwar period of the baby boom was the peak in population growth and that a decline into 2028 would unfold but the low would be after 2032? How low is low?

Concerned Reader

KE

ANSWER: Those who are always desperate to claim everything will go down except for gold are spouting out their personal bias which prevents them from looking at the real trend. The eventual low in population may not arrive until 2040. As far as how low is low, that should be about a 50% reduction up there with the Black Plague.

We have war, but on top of that, we have climate change that is heading to colder – not warmer periods. That is when crops fail and that results in malnutrition and this disease rises. These mandatory COVID vaccines are probably the catalyst for a sharp rise in disease. Viruses mutate. That is their function in this world. The more you vaccinate unnecessarily, the more mutations will emerge from the viruses to survive. That means they will get worse there y defeating the vaccines. Those who were NOT vaccinated will stand a far better shot at surviving.

Just look at the antibiotics. The overuse of these drugs has led to superbugs evolving that are not incurable. The CDC has even stated that the overuse of antibiotics has led to superbugs. Interestingly, even the World Economic Forum (WEF) report published in 2014 warned that ‘The world will run out of effective antibiotics.” The WEF stated the link between the overuse of antibiotics was causing antibiotic resistance and superbugs in hospitals. This has increased the death rates of many people. They concluded that antibiotic-resistant bacteria posed the greatest risk to human health. Others have noted that bacteria are growing stronger and acquiring resistance to multiple drugs. (Spellberg, Bartlett, & Gilbert, 2013).

To me, it is hard to imagine that this demand for 100% vaccinations for COVID is a risk to humanity for the COVID-19 virus will mutate to defeat all possible vaccines as what is already taking place with antibiotics.

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The more volcanoes that are erupting (3 now in Alaska), the greater the chance of volcanic winter. If that unfolds on top of this food shortage created by the COVID Lockdowns and the crazy Climate Change people who want to terminate all fossil fuels right now, we are looking at a lethal combination of events that can certainly lead to a 509% reduction in the population by 2040.

There are plenty of people who are taking our forecasts and pretending they have derived this all on their own. Sorry. This comes from a computer that has been putting that forecast out for the last 20 years by correlating everything. You cannot simply look at war and claim that is your source. This is a combination of events – it is never a single cause and effect.

QUESTION #3: Marty, there were a number of major financial institutions there in Orlando and two central bankers I overheard in a conversation. They were all focused on not your international war cycle, but your cycle of civil unrest. I think the punch line was that was much more serious. Do you have any updates on that here midterm?

Thanks really for you and your team. They are standing by society in a time we need it. My hat is off to your entire staff.

HB

ANSWER #3: Yes, Civil Unrest is actually far more dangerous than international war. As I have warned many times, the Civil Unrest is what leads to revolutions. The International War lead to a reduction in population, and they can lead to civil unrest as was the case in Germany following WWI when they overthrew the monarchy. World civil unrest turned up sharply with the ECM turning point of 2020.05.

That said, the #1 question I do get right now from our global banking clients, investment firms, and international hedge funds has been about the civil unrest forecasts. They saw the uprising in Pakistan because of rising inflation. The polls here show that inflation is the #1 concern. There are more people concerned about the Johnny Depp trial than Roe v Wade. Even Walt Disney has suffered a major collapse in their trust following their attack on DeSantis. Sorry, but most parents do not want third graders being told they might be gay. This entire WOKE movement has undermined the confidence in corporations and government.

Our institutional clients are bracing themselves for a surge in civil unrest in the US, but especially in Europe including Great Britain. This entire insanity of trying to shut down fossil fuels BEFORE you have a viable alternative is not just sending energy prices to the Moon, but food prices are exploding and shortages are expanding. This is a combination that is behind our computer forecasts on the Civil Unrest models we have published for the last 40 years.

Our models on Civil Unrest go back to 600BC which is significantly different than the international war which goes back to 6000BC starting with recorded history covering Europe and Asia.

And BTW, this is not a one-man-band. Our staff is around the world. We have Staff in China, Europe, Middles East, and SE Asia. They deserve the recognition. They are committed to what we do try to provide answers and forecasts for the largest international audience of anyone.