Iran – When will it Fall?

Posted Dec 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I do hope you hold your conference in the Dubai. I know you have a number of staff there. I recall that you had a projection for Iran to begin its decline and fall and end up with yet another revolution. I believe it was starting in 2024 and I think it would end by 2032. can you provide an update on Iran?

%thank you so much for y9ur kindness.

HBB

ANSWER: Yes, the start would be 2024 which was 72 years from the 1952 uprising. We are also looking at the collapse of the Iranian government – not just Republics. This is a global political reset. Iran will completely collapse by 2030. It will not make it to 2032. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is facing the fall his proxy terror groups throughout the Middle East. However, my sources have confirmed to me that Turkey advised both Iran and Russia not to intervene for they were in truth taking down Syria. I believe Putin has read between the lines, but Iran did not. Turkey in making its play for checkmate on the Middle East.

I have not yet made the decision for Dubai. I want to see if Trump is actually sworn in first. There are some very dark forces still at work and they intend to lead the world into war

Iran will act only when they have the support of Russia and China

 Iran – War – Socrates

Posted Jan 9, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I found your analysis in Iran v USA very interesting. Sometimes I do have to read between the lines. For example, you wrote: “We should pay attention to November 4, 2022. That will be the 43rd anniversary of the seizing of the American embassy by Iran.”  That implies you did not see anything prior to that warranting war. You added: “The Iranian leadership will not be deterred. This is a matter of pride. It does not matter what Trump warns. They will take action regardless of the costs.”

You also wrote that the war cycle involving Iran comes into play starting 2021.29. To me, you were saying not now.

Iran fired missiles and they now say their retaliation was proportionate. They did not kill any Americans but could claim they targeted American bases.

I met a former staff member of yours who said you had very long-standing ties into the Middle East going back decades. Is the fact that you did not specifically state there was an imminent threat of war implicit in your comment there was no concern until November 4, 2022?

PVB

ANSWER: If there was an imminent threat I would state so. Neither my sources nor Socrates reflected such an event. Iran realizes that the USA could literally blow them out of the water. There was a lot of back-channeling going on cautioning Iran not to get reckless from both Russia and China despite publicly disagreeing with the USA. There are often a lot of things taking place behind the curtain and there are some who want to know if Socrates is picking anything up in the capital flows that would indicate an imminent war.

This could change within the next two weeks on a small scale. The attack by Iran was to save face. They had to be seen as doing something. Trump was told this is simply how leaders must save face before their own people. This does not mean it is over. This will not be the last we have heard from Iran. They will act only when they have the support of Russia and China.

43rd anniversary of the seizing of the American embassy by Iran - November 4, 2022.

Iran v US a 40 Year Proxy War of Religious Hatred

Posted Jan 5, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Iran is not simply a military threat, it has been at the top of the list of cyber-terrorism. Iran has cyber troops that have long been waging a cyberwar and they are most definitely among the world’s most capable and aggressive cyber operatives. There was even talk behind the curtain that the real cyber-attacked during the US 2016 election was Iran redirecting their hacks through Ukraine – not Russia.  They are very capable of disrupting banking, hacking oil companies, even they even covertly attempted to take control of a dam to create the appearance of a natural disaster. So far, Iran has stopped short of launching any major cyberattacks preferring to hold back for the USA would know where those attacks were originating.

The attack on Soleimani was a dramatic shift for an administration. Soleimani was frequently traveling to Iraq and Syria to coordinate strategic attacks on Americans in the past. An Iranian supported rocket attack killed an America contractor and this was followed by the US drone attack which claimed the lives of 27 militia members. It was Iran’s support which led to the attack on the American Embassy in Baghdad which is believed to have been ordered by Soleimani who has been traveling freely and coordinating attacks on Americans outside of Iran.

Trump warned on Twitter: “Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.” Mr. Trump added: “The USA wants no more threats!” We should pay attention to November 4, 2022. That will be the 43rd anniversary of the seizing of the American embassy by Iran.

The Iranian leadership will not be deterred. This is a matter of pride. It does not matter what Trump warns. They will take action regardless of the costs. They will pick their time. Otherwise, the leadership will appear to be weak.

The War Cycle on Iran comes into play 2021.29

Iran & the Cycle of War

Posted Jan 3, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; you had forecast that the future war in the Middle East would start to escalate in 2020 with the ECM turn and possibly erupt by 2021. It seems Socrates got that one right after killing Soleimani, but it is about two weeks ahead of schedule. If I remember, you said this was festering between Sunni and Shite and the leader would be Iran. Do you have any update on that?

Thank you;

GC

ANSWER: The first Iran Revolution was February 1921, when the military commander Reza Khan seized power. The War Cycle on Iran comes into play 2021.29. I will be doing an update to the cycles of war and incorporate those issues from the 2015 Cycle of War which was on the Middle East. The killing of Soleimani is probably the precursor to the turn in the ECM which is due January 18, 2020. This should contribute to the inflationary cycle ahead.

It did not matter what form of government we lived under, JUSTICE is always defined as the self-interest of government

Iran on Schedule for the War Cycle

Posted Jun 21, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I am a Muslim and I have just read you War Cycle report from 2015where you provide your forecast for this crisis we are cascading into. You historical analysis is fair and honest. Most people have no idea of the history of the region no less the divisions in Islam. Your forecast is coming into play. It looks like a countdown for the next year.

I wanted to take the time to express my respect for your world view and how you remain the voice of reason.

ABS

REPLY: I have been a student of history my whole life. But memorizing battles and dates and handing out titles like “The Great” (Magnus) for winning a war to me is the noise. The key to history is understand the patterns and once you see the patterns, it no longer justifies one position against another. I have come to understand Thrasymachus who observed that it did not matter what form of government we lived under, JUSTICE is always defined as the self-interest of government. Once I looked at his observation, it became crystal clear that it also did not apply to merely government, but all aspects of any group that seized power under a variety of labels including religion.

The English Civil War was also supposed to be about religion – Puritans v Catholics. Oliver Cromwell overthrew King Charles I and even beheaded him. He then issued coins calling himself the Lord Protector, but they carried his portrait with an olive wreath as if he too were then king. The Puritans outlawed all sports because that led to cursing, plays for they were lies, Christmas for you should be praying not celebrating, and it became a felony subject to death for kissing you wife in public. Indeed, Thrasymachus hit the nail on the head about 2,000 year before Cromwell – justice is simply the self-interest of those in power.

History repeats BECAUSE the patterns repeat and they are patterns of human reactions. I tried to do a good job in that report on the Middle East. The target date is rapidly approaching. Indeed, we have nearly a year to understand what is taking place.

Make no mistake about it. The majority of the youth in Iran do NOT support the current government in Iran. This also raises the stakes for the current religious regime in Ira will gradually lose power as attitudes change among the younger generations. To this inevitability, Iran becomes a greater risk for starting a war of they face the loss of power and a potential internal revolution. There was the 1979 revolution in Iran which put in place the religious government. The previous revolution took place between 1905 to 1911. It is unlikely that the religious government in Iran will be as strong after 2021 and the country is likely to end up with a completely non-religious government by 2051

The Iranian Revolution of 1979 will be followed by another counter-revolution probably in 2022.

TRUTH is so precious that she should Always be attended by a Bodyguard of Lies

Posted Aug 21, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you support the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the Iran deal?

ANSWER: Iran has no intention of actually conforming with that agreement. But that is really a side issue. There is a significant displeasure with the religious government in Iran. This is indeed been rising since the Arab Spring. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 will be followed by another counter-revolution probably in 2022. Iran has suppressed its people for far too long and it will rise up in yet another revolution. The government is at war in the Middle East against Saudi Arabia because of a political-religious philosophy. They seek to export their beliefs to others and that is the problem. If they would just adopt live-and-let-live policy things would be much calmer.

I do not support the USA sticking its nose into everything. This is the inherent problem when you have military establishments. As I have said before, the days of Empire Building are gone. China, Russia, and the USA have no desire to occupy each other. Both Erdogan and Iran are still clinging to this idea of reestablishing Empires. The major powers are engaged in proxy wars. It really makes no sense to intervene for it only inspires hatred.

Franklin Roosevelt lied to the people because Americans were isolationists. You have to understand that you MUST always separate the PEOPLE from the Government and its POLITICIANS. The Americans fled Europe and wanted no part of the political nonsense there. FDR appeared in Boston and said he wanted to send arms to Britain but not troops. Boston was predominantly Irish. They did not want to go to war to defend Britain when they view that Britain supposed the Irish. FDR lied to the people and claimed ending the embargo and shipping arms to Britain would KEEP America at peace. He said:

Let no group assume the exclusive label of the “peace bloc.” We all belong to it … I give you my deep and unalterable conviction, based on years of experience as a worker in the field of international peace, that by the repeal of the embargo the United States will more probably remain at peace than if the law remains as it stands today … Our acts must be guided by one single, hardheaded thought — keeping America out of the war.

Governments have ALWAYS lied about every war to justify it. It is the people who pay the price of war while the politicians reap only the glory and not the hardship. Even if we look at the civil war between Octavian and Marc Antony, he always distanced himself from making it outright appear as a civil war against Antony. His victory coin simply stated Egypt was Captured – not Antony. In this manner, he always managed to keep it as a war between himself and Cleopatra.

If Marc Antony did not commit suicide as the story is told, Octavian surely would have killed him anyway. There was just no circumstance in where he could proclaim a victory over a Roman who had at least been a friend of Julis Caesar and a Roman of distinction. The image of the war had to be against Cleopatra politically. Antony was simply portrayed as being delusional and under her spell. Hence, he was not really culpable for his actions.

So how we portray war and an enemy has always been subject to manipulation. I would NEVER accept what is said by any side as being the truth. Winston Churchill said: “In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.

Trump Lays the Seeds to World War III

Posted Apr 14, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Konstantin Kosachev, the head of International Affairs for Russia’s Federal Assembly, publicly stated: “There can be only one political assessment: It is a blatant violation of international law and it is an attack on a sovereign state without proper grounds.” Strangely, he is correct. International Law under agreements in the United Nations does not justify an attack upon any nation for its actions domestically. Can Russia or China justify invading the United States because of the use of military weapons on unarmed citizens as in Ferguson? It certainly did not appear like a police action dealing with a riot but more like a military assault and a war zone back in Ferguson. No nation has any legal standing to invade another because of an internal conflict.

We must also realize that there would be no Syrian “Civil” War if there had not been an attack upon Iraq with the removal of Saddam Hussein. Indeed, Saddam thought America wouldsupport him because he kept the Islamic terrorists in check. But Dick Chaney saw dollars and handed the Iraq invasion to his former company Halliburton. Trump said now he relied upon the media reports, which he has consistently called fake news.

The Spanish American war was instigated by fake news of Pulitzer v Hearst. There is something more at stake than just a pipeline. There is a new oil deposit which is in the Israeli occupied part of Syria. The overthrow of Syria would legally justify this investment scheme. Cheney’s company, Halliburton, even pleaded guilty to covering up evidence of their involvement in the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Trump has done the typical military excuse and portrayed Assad as a “monster” and only mentions a chemical attack upon women and children who are “innocent” rather than invading Islamic Terrorists from other states. The agreement to not use chemical weapons after World War I had to do with international wars. It does not government domestic actions. This is a sad piece of political jockeying to cover up a deliberate and intensifying war that is building in the Middle East. Trump has said he has rekindled relations with nations in the Middle East and they should support their own goals. That refers to Saudi Arabia for this is building into a war between Saudi Arabia v Iran that is drawing in the USA and Russia and will bring in China as well. Yes, they will be sending in their own troops as well. At the core, is a religious war in Islam that benefits economically the Western powers against Russia. If there was no pipeline or dollars to be had, the West would not care what Assad does.

The West always turns a blind eye to North Korea as well as most African dictators. If there is no profit, they could care less what they do to their own people. Why has Trump not sent a missile attack on North Korea to wipe out its nuclear capability and research? No resources to make it profitable like Syria? It is a shame that Trump does not stand for a new way of dealing with this same old agenda that even Obama tried to send in troops over Syria but was rejected by the people of the United States. Nobody asks the people about any war. Politicians take it upon themselves to follow the script of centuries when money is at stake. This action will escalate in the months ahead going into November 2018.

Hansel and Gretel left a trail of breadcrumbs to follow to get home. In politics, just follow the money to find the truth.

Zoroastrianism - Iran

Posted Jan 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Two things:

“He is remembered for publicly stating that Israel should be wiped off the face of the Earth.”

Although he is indeed remembered in the West for ‘saying’ that, the truth is that phrase was a gross mis-translation of what he did say in Farsi. Just a simple lie. I don’t think you should be party to the perpetuation of a lie.

And, with Pahlevi, his ‘claim’ to the throne was problematic. His father was not an aristocrat and in fact was installed by the British. Real granular knowledge of history is useful, don’t you think?

REPLY: My piece on Iran does not support either side. I am fully aware that I am well read in Iran. The question was simply about the cycle of political change. That does not endorse the claim to the Throne under Mohammad Reza’s reign, marked the anniversary of 2,500 years of continuous Persian monarchy since the founding of the Achaemenid Empire by Cyrus the Great. That took place on the 12–16 of October back in 1971.

He revised the calendar making the benchmark the beginning of the First Persian Empire, measured from Cyrus the Great’s coronation. He introduced the White Revolution, which a series of economic, social and political reforms designed to transform Iran into a modern global power. He offended the religious conservatives by granting women suffrage.

I fully appreciate his claim to the throne is disputed and he was only the second of the House of Pahlavi and thus the conservatives dispute his heritage to the throne. That is not my concern. Like Trump, our model forecast the 2016 election back in 1985. Trump appeared and read the people’s discontent and beat 17 Republicans to their shock. It was not Trump the person, it was just being there at the right time. If it was not Trump, it would have been someone else. The cycle was turning – plain and simple.

There is a 26-year cycle that is quite dominant throughout Iranian history. There have been many revolutions that have often centered even on religion. The Sassanid Shâhs (Great Kings), 223/4-651 AD is a classic example. The Sassanids replaced the Hellenophile Parthian dynasty, with the program of deliberately reviving the Zoroastrian Achaemenid Persian Empire, aspiring to recover all the former provinces of the Achaemenids (Egypt, Syria, Anatolia). Zoroaster was the predecessor to Christianity and the source of the story of the Three Wise Men.

Zoroaster was a prophet whose teachings were the religious foundation of ancient Iranian-speaking peoples. This became the religion of Zoroastrianism, which is often considered to be the first world religion. It is still practiced by a tiny population. There are approximately 11,000 Zoroastrians who live in the United States, 6,000 in Canada, 5,000 in England, 2,700 in Australia and 2,200 in the Middle East. Mumbai, formerly known as Bombay, was actually the world capital of Zoroastrianism. The  Sasanian Revolution was all about restoring the old religion. The 1979 Islamic Revolution was similar in overthrowing the Shah to re-estatlish an Islamic State.

From that birth of the Sasanian Kingdom in 223/224BC, the 26-year cycle brings us precisely to 2017/2018 (cycle #69 from that revolution). Hence, I am looking at this less from a political standpoint of supporting either side in Iran, where we have a lot of readers I know, but from a purely cyclical viewpoint.

I have no interest in promoting any religion for that to me is a personal choice.

Why Iran is a Major Threat

Posted Nov 14, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Yemeni Civil War is an ongoing conflict that began in 2015 between two factions. Each is claiming to constitute the Yemeni government. This is really a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Houthi forces control the capital Sana’a who are allied with forces loyal to the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh backed by Saudi Arabia. They are opposed by Yemen’s Shiite rebels who are loyal to the religious government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, based in Aden, supported by Iran.

To grasp what this is all about, one must understand Islam. Saudi Arabia in Sunni that boils down to a separation of church and state. They are fighting the Shiite forces of Iran, which believe that religion should control the state. Therefore, the ballistic missile fired by Yemen’s Shiite rebels toward the Saudi capital was manufactured by Iran as if this should be any surprise given that Iran is their backer.

This conflict in the Middle East is religious based. This is similar to the threat of Russia back in the Cold War days when Nikita Khrushchev ruled Russia and the ideology that Marxism would conquer Capitalism was the entire issue. Here we have Iran which is similarly a threat to the world political structure because this is where religion should rule the state. Christianity went through that where the state was ruled by religion and to circumvent religion, kings appointed their political allies as priests, bishops, and cardinal. That led to the Investiture Controversy which was the major conflict between the Pope Gregory VII and the Holy Roman Emperor Henry IV during the 11th century.

Emperor Henry declared Pope Gregory was no longer pope and the Romans should choose a new pope because of political disputes. When Pope Gregory heard of this he excommunicated Henry IV, declared he was no longer emperor and absolved his subjects from the oaths they had sworn to him. This was the battle of kings to control the Church for political gain.

Even if we look at England and Henry VII’s break with the Catholic Church, one need only just look before the headline. Henry’s Queen was  Catherine of Aragon (1485–1536) who was the aunt of the Holy Roman Emperor Charles V (1500–1558) and was originally Charles I of Spain. Charles V had imprisoned the Pope Clement VII (1478– 1534) following the Sack of Rome in May 1527. Correct, the Holy Roman Emperor invaded Rome to take control of the Church and imprisoned the Pope. There was no way Charles V would allow Henry VIII to annul the marriage with his aunt. Once again we have evidence of kings controlling religion for political purposes.

What is unfolding in the Middle East is similar to the war between Protestants and Catholics, which was really for political and economic power. The corruption in the Church was not the design of the Pope when it had been the kings who appointed people in their domain to run the Church – not the Pope. Nothing could illustrate this point more than the case of Saint Thomas Becket (c. 1119–1170), who was a personal drinking buddy of the King. When he appointed him as Arch Bishop of Canterbury, he suddenly found religion. He then stood up to the King and he was slain right at the Altar.

This is a similar nature where here it is the religious Shite seeking to take control of the Middle East and overthrow kings. The recent Saudi Arabia incident of shooting down the Iranian missile on November 4th, 2017 near Riyadh’s international airport, illustrates just how confrontational this really is. Why Obama cut any sort of a deal with Iran given their political beliefs, is truly beyond contemplation