Timing appears to be more leaning to 2023 during the first quarter.

 Will Taiwan be Next?

Posted Mar 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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QUESTION: Marty, I see your point. Do you think China will go after Taiwan now as the world is distracted by Ukraine?

PA

ANSWER: Eventually yes. The timing appears to be more leaning to 2023 during the first quarter. I will deal with that in the coming report on War. The computer is clearly showing this is going to escalate – not subside. The West has demonized Russia and that is what is necessary to support a war effort. They have to get the people to HATE the target.

That much they have done. They succeeded in getting people to hate Putin and then they attribute that hate to all the Russian people. The resentment over Vietnam has still provided the basic elements for the same against China. Even calling COVID the CCP virus adds to that component necessary for war. Hate crimes against Asians in New York have become a thing since COVID. You must always demonize your opponent to create support for the objective. Next, we will see the expulsion of diplomats between the US and Russia. That will also contribute to the escalation of this event into 2023.

Taiwan & the Risks

 

Posted Jul 6, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I take it you see China retaking Taiwan in the years ahead. I read your latest report. With your expertise, how do you see that unfolding?

Thank you for your guidance

KJ

ANSWER: China would most likely use its DF-16 – a short-range ballistic missile which Taiwan would have extreme difficulting in preventing them from getting through their defense net. They would target all military installations and possibly take out Taiwan’s airports and that would probably be followed by surface troops landing on their shores. China has its H-6 bombers and J-16 fighter jets, which would wipe out its naval force.

China would then launch several rounds of intensive cruise missile attacks, such as the YJ-91 and CJ-10. These would be launched from both land and sea. This would further target all military bases, ammunition depots, communications infrastructure, and key road junctions. If the PLA did not surrender, since the US and Japan will NOT come to their aid,  then they would use artillery strikes from surface ships and land-based rocket forces to annihilate the PLA’s resistance. I suspect they could take Taiwan in less than 2 weeks. They have been conducting major military exercises.

I do not believe that China is interested in wiping out the infrastructure or the means for economic commerce in computers. The question would be that the West will probably then look to create a competitive chip production to prevent reliance on Asia for computer technology.

Even if China were to invade Taiwan, the US is not likely to send in ground troops.

 

China & US War in 3 Months?

Posted Aug 10, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

The former Labor Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd has come out in a piece he wrote in Foreign Affairs – Beware the Guns of August—in Asia. Rudd is claiming that the US and China may go to war in three months ahead of the US elections. This is clearly the left trying to claim that Trump will start a war just to win the White House. This seems to be simply part of this entire global quest to usher in socialism and end capitalism. The left simply wants total power. Just look at Melbourne, Australia. This one beautiful city I visited often ios now a prison camp using COVID to strip people of all human rights. The police may now enter anyone’s home without a warrant and they imposed a Curfew 8:00 pm.

This entire issue of rising tensions will not lead to war under Trump. Even if China were to invade Taiwan, the US is not likely to send in ground troops. China is flexing its muscles because the West is committing politic-economic suicide with COVID. China knows the agenda and it is being driven by Bill Gates. Activists have been pushing US institutions to sell all investments in China because they are not yielding to the Climate Change Agenda. This is breaking the economic link the does prevent war.

In addition, China is moving to expand its own domestic consumer economy. It has adopted a different pather than Europe which clings to socialism and Germany is still a mercantilistic economy. China will become the new Financial Capital of the World because it is adopting a domestic view while the Democrats in the USA are trying to follow Europe and subjugate the productive capacity of the nation under Marxist class warfare.

While there is no question that war is coming. However, not simply because Trump needs to win the election. Yes, China has been staging assault practices to invade Taiwan. They have suppressed Hong Kong which was a vital economic link for its economy. The subjugation of Hong Kong shows that China’s economy has matured enough that it no longer needs to funnel business through Hong Kong. Many businesses borrowed in Hong Kong and took the cash directly back to China.

The confrontation cycle between China and Taiwan turned up in 2018 and we should expect this to really escalate into 2023. Nevertheless, underlying models do not look good economically for Taiwan. This entire COVID nonsense has seen as much as a 90% drop in profits for some of the biggest companies in Taiwan.

There is clearly a risk that 2020 could prove to be the major high and a decline into 2024 may unfold. This was a high volatility yearly target and we have witnessed an outside reversal to the upside. This may be the conclusion of this long-standing confrontation. With COVID raging in the West, there will be no economic basis to defend Taiwan from Europe or the USA. China knows the West cannot afford a war after destroying its economy. If I were China, I would wait for these further lockdowns to wipe out the various economics and that will reduce the threat of any retaliation. This will be like Rome expanding after the Greeks fought among themselves dividing their empire.

Titus Quinctius Flamininus (c. 228–174BC) was a Roman politician and general who was instrumental in the Roman conquest of Greece. That came 309.6 years from the birth of the Roman Republic. The fall of Greece to Rome came about 224 years from the peak of Greece prior to its conquest by Macedonia. Europe peaked really with the French Revolution. That came 224 years before the peak in government confidence which was 2015.75. From there onward, we have has not just BREXIT, but the election of Trump and the collapse in the basic civility within politics.

China, Taiwan

China v USA

Posted May 30, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Obviously, China is not Hitler or Napoleon with dreams of conquering the world. The days of empire building are gone. China has always been the one who is invaded from the Mongols and Japanese to the Europeans. Do you see China becoming more dominant in empire building retaking Taiwan?

JN

ANSWER: I am working a report on this subject. You are correct that China historically has not been the aggressor. They were conquered by the Mongols and were invaded by Japan. They never set out on a world domination plan like Hitler or Napoleon because that culture was not prevalent in Asia compared to Europe where each country at one point was the dominant political state in Europe. Russia, on the other hand, believed that it was their position to spread communism to the world.

That said, both Hong Kong and Taiwan were part of China historically. From their perspective, it is not a conquest compared to reunification as Germany viewed the return of East Germany.

What has protected Hong Kong is the economy. That is why China was willing to allow it to retain a lot of its freedom. Now that the world economy is under assault, the protection of both Hong Kong and Taiwan is not as secure as it once was. Alienate China and they have no incentive to just observe.

This is not the war of old. Standing by and not engaging against Hitler and hoping he would stop each time was the wrong decision BECAUSE Hitler was motivated by revenge and conquering Europe. That incentive is no longer present today among the superpowers. Nobody wants to occupy the other. As long as everyone got along economically, that was the bottom-line benefactor to prevent war. Today, war would be strikingly different. It would not be one of conquest, but of annihilating an enemy. Stop the world economy and you encourage war today.