Friday, June 7, 2013

It’s Always A Confidence Game

 


QUESTION: I don’t understand the page 11 comments about German Hyperinflation and that it took place because capital was being hoarded and there was no lending?????
Can you clarify how price hyperinflation occurs if no one is spending or lending.
RESPONSE:
Because people were hoarding real money so there was none to be deposited in banks and thus there was a shortage of internationally accepted money. The Wiemar Republic was a communist revolutionary government that did not have the ability to borrow for who would lend anything to a government that was rejecting capitalism? Therefore, it was the complete lack of CONFIDENCE in the government that (1) caused the hoarding, and (2) caused the complete lack of credit preventing any bond issues. Consequently, the government could ONLY print money.
But the KEY that is overlooked is CONFIDENCE. All we hear is how the US will go into hyperinflation because of the Fed’s monetization. That is gibberish. Ask the average American if they trust government and the answer is still YES! Hyperinflation requires the wholesale collapse in the CONFIDENCE of government. That is not likely. We must crash and burn before that will happen. It is not what YOU believe, it is what the MAJORITY believe and they are NOT on board yet with the full collapse in CONFIDENCE in government.

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Interest rates and stock markets

A Normal Market

Dow-Bonds
In the normal world of capital flows, bonds decline when stocks rise. The talking heads that claim lower interest rates are bullish for stocks once again try to reduce everything to a single cause and effect that applies to a single frame in a long movie. Here we can see that bonds declined when stocks rallied into 1929 as interest rates ROSE not declined!!!!!!! The explanations that the Dow is rising because of Fed Monetization and the bonds are rising because of a mismatch in quality, sorry, but that just does not cut it. It is capital inflows into the dollar both bonds and stocks as the dollar is being thrust into the single world currency thanks to the brain-dead decisions of Europe.
Fed1920
The capital inflows to the US were creating a cash shortage in Europe during the 1920s. The Fed in 1927 tried to lower rates to deflect capital inflows back to Europe. This led to hindsight blame being hurled at the Fed claiming the lowering of rates created the Bubble. FALSE!!!! The attempted manipulation of the capital flows CONFIRMED there was a problem in Europe, which eventually manifested in the wholesale defaults in 1931 where even Britain was forced into a moratorium on debt payments.
CapitalFlow1919-1940CapitalFlow-Japan87-89(2)
The capital flows were pouring into the USA for World War I and then invested in the USA helping to create the Bubble in 1929 precisely what we saw in Japan for 1989. At Princeton Economics, we invented capital flow analysis. Simply put – follow the money!
The whole idea of raising and lowering interest rates is again domestic myopic attempts to manipulate the markets. It never works. It is more than a single one dimensional relationship. It also includes the currency. If the currency is rising with stocks, you get international capital inflows for it will be profitable for the foreign investors. If the stocks are rising and the currency is falling, that is purely a domestic movement absent international capital inflows as the stocks will rise in proportion to the fall in the currency. We just saw this in the Nikkei in Japan – yen down stocks up.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Gold & Timing



Bull markets I have stated many times are 7, 11, 13 or 21.
Gold has three very interesting bottoms. The 1999 is the intraday low. 2000 is the lowest yearly closing. Then 2001 produces the lowest quarter closing. This is an interesting set up that is rare to say the least. So effectively, both the 11 and 13 cycles come into play since the low was not a single event. So we got the 13 year since 2012 was the highest closing but we got the intraday in 2011 as 11 up from the lowest closing. Had both the intraday and the close been unified in 1999, then the ideal would have been 2010 with a max of 2012.
Likewise, on the way down we should have had a 19 month correction but the move up to create the highest annual closing in 2012 extended the cycle. Everything happens for a reason and this may prove to be the currency crisis.
GCCASH 1982 Decline - Y

This decline will be no different than anything before. The bulk of the drop always takes place within the first 2-3 years. So just as gold crashed from $875 in 1980 to $293 by 1982, the 5 year bear market prevailed but low was $280 compared to $293. The 19 year low was only $254.
Even if gold declines into 2015, the bulk of the drop will most likely take place during this year as was the case 1980-1982. A lower low in 2015 may be marginal. That depends upon the low we see this time. If it is in the 1150 area, then the worse case should be 875-907.
We still see the phase transition for 2017 time frame and that is normally up to a 2 year event so 2015-2017 does not change anything long-term. The rest will be in the report.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Europe – The Greatest Threat to World Economy


These politicians always look at things that never see themselves as the problem. So every solution must center around manipulating the people, never reforming government. They speak only of the private sector and carry a very big stick. They cannot see that this “bail-in” leads to the same result as the German Revolution insofar as people, albeit the smart ones, will move their money and start to hoard their wealth keeping only minimum amounts in the bank. This will start the gradual rise in interest rates as more and more capital moves away from PUBLIC investment and shifts toward PRIVATE. This is the dominant trend that has taken place throughout history. Everything has two opposites and we must swing back and forth between the two.

Europeans are now better-of buying assets, especially shares that are at least transportable. Real Estate could be taxed – just look at the USA and Greece where they taxed swimming pools. The smart ones will take delivery of their shares and not even leave them at a brokerage house. The fools will not believe it and are too interested in non-political things so they do not pay attention. That is historically why fools are always separated from their money quickly.

Saturday, May 4, 2013

Does "money printing" actually help ?

What Do Central Bankers Really Look AT

QUESTION: Can you please comment on the following. I hear incessant talk about the market being supported by Bernanke. The Fed gets the credit for the market going up. (And when it goes down for not doing enough). How much truth is there in this mantra? How much is the Fed actually affecting stock prices by what they’re doing? It is very confusing to hear day after day CNBC commentators point to the fed as the cause for seemingly everything good and bad in the markets and economy.
ANSWER: Absolute nonsense! The Fed is worried about the rise in the stock market for they are as confused as the talking heads. The talking head’s problem is this constant myopic view of the domestic economy as if everything begins and ends here. We are working urgently to get a new book on the globalization of the economy out ASAP that illustrates this problem that plagues not just the TV comments, but the economics taught in schools. The reason why increasing money supply by the Fed FAILED to produce inflation is the complete failure to comprehend the global economy. It is the global capital flows involving debt and capital investment that drives all world share markets and currency values. The Fed does NOT even control the money supply! International capital does!!!!

Friday, April 26, 2013

Martin Armstrong- My story-
Over my career, I believed I was perhaps too restless in search of something I could not find nor describe so I tended to try different things from banking to brokerage to hedge fund management. Those combined experiences have opened my eyes. Then having offices on every continent and over 240 employees, as Milton Friedman put it – I had a front row seat to observe a world few even knew existed. I began in computer engineering and saw RCA, which was at the top of its game, sell its computer division to IBM & Univac because it judged the computer as its experience with radio. I began to observe how big corporations made decisions and planted the seeds of their own destruction.
RCA Camden,_New_Jersey_assembly_line_5-tube_radio_chassis
RCA (Radio Corporation of America) was one of the high flying stocks even during the Great Depression. No matter how bad it was, people wanted to buy a radio to hear how bad it was. RCA thought the computer began at the top of a cycle and would collapse like the radio becoming a crystal set for kids in a 5c & 10c store. They were wrong. Sold their future and became a tiny subdivision of GE. Oh. How the might have fallen!
I moved into the metals. I became one of the largest market makers in the CASH business for 1980. I wrote the laws for the State of NJ making gold not subject to tax in 1975 only to have the state later say it was & I may have misunderstood what the Senate asked me to do, The feds after 1980 came in and declared me to be a bank so they could seize all our records and investigate 3,000 customers to see if they paid their taxes.
I was probably the largest in gold industry as a market maker since I was the one the IRS targeted, not for my taxes, but for clients. I was a major shareholder of a bank and was on the board participating in decisions as to who got loans or not. We sold that bank to the NY boys.
I have been touted as starting the overnight markets because to make markets AFTER COMEX closed, which was unheard of in the 1970s, I used my international contacts, made markets after the close while competitors and others swore I was just speculating. In truth, I was selling in Hong Kong, yet I had to make physical delivery in London the next morning. This was scrap gold I bought from all the dealers that took 6 weeks to refine. I had to “borrow” physical gold in London to make delivery, then the next day do the trade on COMEX and swapped that position with the dealer in London. I got little sleep and then showed people how to do it. I became a partner in one of the oldest brokerage houses – one of the founding members of the LME in London and sold that to the Australians.
I have been called into virtually every crisis since the collapse of Franklin National Bank in the mid-70s. That got me well behind-the-curtain. Because of my computer skills, I could see how writing a program in the 1970s would track the world. When I was retiring from making markets, the analysis we provided was spun off as Princeton Economics. We were more than a decade ahead of everyone – the first to even create computer models for markets. Because of my background in Physics, competitors tried to mimic us hiring what became known as “quants” to try to also apply physics. When I warned of the 1987 Crash, the White House disagreed because we were the ONLY people with a model that was could forecast a rise in volatility. We recently published the 1985 chart handout for the World Economic Conference held in Princeton, New Jersey showing the amazing volatility projections for the decades that have now materialized.
We predated both Goldman Sacks & Solomon Brothers. I have seen the futures “trading” community take over Wall Street and not only flipped it on its head, but made proprietary trading the primary objective. They repealed Glass Steagal so they could trade with other people’s money and set the stage for the collapse of Western Civilization because they have created products that blow up consistently and it is all about just making money now.
These stories of “paper gold” and other nonsense are so far from reality, they can only be diversions to set people up to be perpetual buyers in order to sell and make money. They succeed in making people accept the losses and want more convincing them that they are not wrong so double up and you will see! Just go with the flow. This is about surviving the economic collapse these people have created by misinforming government and greasing their hands. Don’t worry. The world is collapsing anyway because politicians will not act until it crashes and burns. This has nothing to do with “paper” gold and pretending they are not really wrong and gold has not risen BECAUSE of all the “paper” shorts. That is brain-dead reasoning, twisting the very facts about a free market, borders on communism, and fails to appreciate that it is the “shorts” who buy during declines when nobody else has the guts to do so,
Jumper
The investigations into WHO was short by the Senate during the Great Depression is WHY the stocks fell by 90% since nobody wanted to go short for fear that they would be hauled before the Senate and accused of treason. No shorts = collapse with no buying. The bullshit is good – but it is still bullshit. The assumption is only people who buy are “real” and they will always have the money to constantly buy more and the CONFIDENCE to always hold. This is just gibberish. Watch gold collapse and you will see CONFIDENCE evaporates so you may still believe, but will you put your money where your mouth is or just desperately try to convince others to buy to support your failing position? Only the fools die dead broke. People who listened to such stories when that same pitch was made by stock brokers – buy and hold – led to numerous suicides. This is a market. It is how it trades. That’s it. Learn and go with the flow or jump now because you will end up broke.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Martin Armstrong

1970 – When Gold Fell BELOW $35


There are gold promoters who made outrageously false advertisements on TV that are just astonishing. They primary theme is somehow gold rises because of monetization and the Fed. They tout the US national debt is $17 trillion and paper money will fall to dust. When you do simple correlations, you see that the claims are just false. The theme that Paper currency is fiat and the national debt alone is reason to buy gold, the numbers do not add up. The debt has exploded by 800% during the decade that followed the 1980 high at $875 on January 21st, 1980. In fact, the national debt hit almost $1 trillion in 1981 (997.9bil) and by 1999 it reached $5.656 trillion when gold fell to $254. This idea that buy gold because the debt is rising, when it did that for 19 years as gold declined. That is NOT the reason to have gold, it is a hedge against the collapse of government but core economies historically NEVER implode from hyperinflation. They always commit suicide as we are witnessing today. They hunt down people and confiscate their assets.
The other thing they sell is the “logic” would have it that gold cannot possibly decline because of fiat currency or the cost of production, and a host of other issues. Well, in 1970, gold fell BELOW $35 fixed rate at Bretton Woods. That was supposed to be impossible. It took place. The unthinkable ALWAYS must take place to really shake the tree so a new bull run can take place.The unthinkable always happens before big moves.