Once government subsidizes anything, the prices rise because they know government will pay the bill.

Bernie Doubles Warren’s Wealth Tax to Win Votes

Posted Sep 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The war on eradicating the rich is fully on. Bernie Sanders realizes that Elizabeth Warren is rising in the polls among liberal Democrats, and Bernie knows how politics works. “Vote for me and I will rob other people for you.” They are competing now on how high they could raise taxes for the rich. Warren’s proposed wealth tax would impose an annual 2% tax on all personal wealth above $50 million, so a family worth $100 million would owe 2% of $50 million or $1 million. The tax would rise to 3% for assets above $1 billion. Warren says her wealth tax would raise $275 billion per year, which she’d use to pay off student debt for millions, cover college costs for the majority of students, and finance universal child care. What she fails to explain is that this is NOT an income tax. This is on the portfolio value. So say you bought a stock for $100 and it soared to $1,000 and you find yourself in that class but you have no cash. You will then be forced to sell stock to pay the tax. But it does not end there. You must pay the same tax every year even it the portfolio was the same price. If you had that in government bonds, you would face the problem that with low interest rates, you cannot earn enough to even pay the tax.

Sanders has gone further, more than doubling Warren’s proposed tax rate on billionaires. The Sanders plan has a lower threshold for wealth, and higher tax rates. His plan has 8 different tax levels, starting with a 1% tax on wealth above $32 million. The rate would rise to 2% on wealth from $50 million to $250 million, with a top rate of 8% on wealth over $10 billion. Sanders says his plan would raise $435 billion per year, which he’d use to fund a single-payer health plan, more affordable housing, and universal child care.

How about we simply forgive student debt and call it a day? All of these proposals are about raising taxes and never looking at the subsidized problem in student loans and health care that was created in the first place. Once government subsidizes anything, the prices rise because they know government will pay the bill. They fund degrees that are worthless and universities are happy to take the money with no responsibility if the degree will ever land you a job. There is no free market competition whatsoever. Health care should simply be turned into a public utility. It will never be reformed in this manner by just paying whatever bills the government is handed.

January turning point on the Economic Confidence Model

Our Risk Assessment Meter is Now on Orange Alert

Posted Sep 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

There is a clear rising risk factor emerging from both politics and geopolitics as we move into the January turning point on the Economic Confidence Model. As the economy turns down and as we head into the 2020 presidential elections in the United States, we are facing rising risk factors on many fronts. The Democrats bashed Russia over the 2016 elections, blaming them for releasing Democratic emails that revealed the extent of their corruption. This has increased the tensions with Russia, rekindled the Cold War, and placed us at a far greater risk of war than at any time post-Vietnam.

There is pressure from the neo-cons to go to war with Iran. Iran has boasted that Saudi Arabia is willing fight to the death of every last American soldier.

There will be a steep economic decline for Europe in 2020

The 2020 Elections – Economics v Career Politicians.

Posted Sep 20, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Marty,
Been reading your blog for six years now and the clarity you have brought regarding cycles and predictability of human behavior is remarkable. My question is regarding the 2020 election. You have said economics drives politics and not the other way around. With the anticipated significant decline in the US economy in 2020, wouldn’t this normally make it more likely incumbents, including Mr. Trump will lose their seats based upon a declining economy? Or would the current voter trend of distrusting career politicians trump (no pun intended) the typical cycle of bad economic times ousting incumbents?
DJZ

ANSWER: Normally, a decline in the economy will often lead to a political change. In this case, our models DO NOT support the view that the US economy will be heading straight down into the elections of 2020. We see this as turning early in 2020.

However, this next wave will be a cost-push inflationary wave and we still see the economic decline in Europe and Asia continuing. There is dissent behind the curtain at the European Central Bank. There are those who have adopted our warnings and are voicing them in meetings that continually result in bond buying and negative interest rates. These policies are destructive to the economy and have failed to “stimulate” anything other than fiscal mismanagement among the political fiscal side of things.

There will be a steep economic decline for Europe in 2020, which will be its 13th year down from the 2007 high. There will be a continued flight of capital into the USA that will support the dollar and the underlying economy.

Turning to the political problem of career politicians v Trump, the Democrats seem to lack any candidate of substance. Elizabeth Warren’s advisors are the European team and they support Thomas Piketty who is a modern-day Marxist.

Even looking at AOC, she won, NOT because of her crazy ideas, but because, like Trump, she was not a career politician. Scherie Murray explains why she is challenging Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Our model on the 2020 election for the 14th district of New York shows this has had a run of 14 Democratic victories in a row since 1992 when the Democrat Carolyn Maloney first won. That means we could lose our most entertaining member of Congress this time around.

It will all depend on the closings for 2019

Reversals – Energy – A Different Dimension

Posted Sep 18, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Marty… I’ve been reading your blog for several years now.

I’ve been trying to understand the basics about your reversal system is with no luck.
Yet I’ve been trading stocks with only simple trend lines for years using basic tech A.

PS I still don’t even understand how the Federal Reserve works either… they don’t teach you that stuff in high school!

Yes, I’ve watched every video or post on reversals on your site and not getting it. I know I’m not that smart but I’m not that dumb either!

Can you pretty please post a very clear layman’s chart using a stock or a commodity with prices like gold to show us dummies so we “GET IT”

Thanks Marty….

A dumb Canuck

ANSWER: Look, the reversals are a black box and I keep it that way along with the Schema Frequencies. This is a physics solution to how the world ticks. It is not a simple moving average, stochastics, or one-dimensional formula. It is highly complex and many people have tried to reverse engineer it but have failed. They may think they have come close but they cannot account for the next number.

Traditionally, economists argue there is a business cycle, but nobody can forecast the cycle. Therefore, with tools of interest rates, taxes, and money supply, governments can manipulate the business cycle. The problem is that even Larry Summers admitted that he cannot forecast the economy. This stems from the problem of their failure to understand cyclical movement,to begin with. The Schema Frequencies resolve the complexity of cyclical movement.

The Energy indicator is against based upon physics and it exposes the true opposing forces at work irrespective of the superficial price levels. The key to this is looking for the divergence when prices are rising and Energy is declining. This is a warning signal that such a rally is NOT sustainable. Likewise, when prices are falling but Energy begins to rise, once more there is a divergence warning that the decline is losing energy and a low is near. Just look at this daily chart on gold. You can see the divergence as Energy peaked well in advance.

These indicators are not your standard variety of analysis. They are entirely beyond the one-dimensional analysis world for the markets are not only all connected globally, but the entire system is fractal. So we have a fractal relationship within each market and then a fractal relationship on a global perspective.

The models do all the calculations that are humanly impossible to carry out before a market even closes. It allows us to stand back and see the overview which then reveals the trends. Many have tried to prevent our forecasts. They have tried to ignore what this computer has been doing in hopes that I will die and that will be the end of it. I see this as a means to an end — to help society manage the business cycle without destroying our human rights and our freedom. I have to protect this because there are those who would use it behind the curtain for personal gain against the world.

Sometimes in life, we stumble upon something like the discovery of penicillin. It has saved lives. People just accept that and do not need to know the formula behind it

Prolonged economic recession in Europe since 2007 as we approach a 13-year decline in 2020

Gold Becoming Part of Money Laundering Laws

Posted Sep 17, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The hunt for money is moving into high gear in Germany. Prior to 2017, it was possible to buy gold anonymously in quantities up to €15,000. In 2017, this limit was reduced to €10,000. Now, Merkel has drastically reduced this limit to just €2,000 beginning in 2020. Any transaction greater than that amount requires the buyer to prove their identity and give their data to the gold trader.

While Merkel has allowed the refugees to pour into Germany, denying there are terrorists hidden among them, she has justified this reduction in anonymous gold purchases by arguing against money laundering to stop terrorism. This means that terrorist would be buying gold inside Germany, which on the other hand she denies letting them in to start with.

Merkel is not satisfied with imposing just a price limitation. She also wants to introduce the 50-gram rule, which would apply regardless of price. For physical gold buyers, this means they will not be able to buy a 50-gram ingot (1.60754 troy ounces) without the gold trader taking personal data and saving it for five years. This certainly applies if you tried to buy just two one ounces coins.

Merkel has formally justified this change in the laws on gold as a step in the fight against money laundering and terrorist financing. The government studies show that out of 77,252 cases registered in 2018 that suspected terrorism financing, only 175 cases involved precious metals.

Terrorism has been a real windfall for governments since 9/11. They have increased their powers globally and probably send thank you cards to the terrorists for handing them the excuse to create total financial surveillance that they use in the hunt for taxes.

The Merkel government has been making a concerted effort to introduce a total surveillance state and track the finances of its citizens. There is chaos in Europe with negative and punitive interest rates, high bank charges, and a declining euro. All of this is mixed with a prolonged economic recession in Europe since 2007 as we approach a 13-year decline in 2020. More and more Europeans are looking for ways to safely and anonymously invest their savings, which have been under direct assault by the government. This has been leading to the hoarding of US dollars and now the change in legislation on gold is only going to increase the switch to dollars

Currency swings can make a bad investment look good

Understanding Canadian Real Estate

Posted Sep 17, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; I am trying to understand your comments that the Canadian real estate has peaked in real terms. Does this mean it will still rise as the currency declines as a hedge against the government in your shift from public to private confidence?

HG

ANSWER: Canada will benefit from the capital inflows to North America which will not be as intense as those into the USA because of your government’s punitive actions against foreign investors and its sheer stupidity in understand international trends.

What I mean in “real terms” relates to the Canadian investor in terms of purchasing power. Here is an illustration of our Canadian Real Estate Index in both Canadian dollars and in Chinese yuan. You can see that from the Chinese perspective, Canadian real estate is still rising as a hedge against their currency. This means that the crazy laws being imposed against foreign investors and Justin Trudeau’s latest campaign promise to impose a 1% national 1% tax on foreigners owning property in Canada which he says will be applied to speculation and vacancy on applicable residential properties owned by “non-resident, non-Canadians.” Once he imposes the tax, you can bet it will rise rapidly from 1% because there is a complete misunderstanding of what is driving the real estate markets.

Here is the Canadian Real Estate Index in terms of Euro. Again, we are witnessing breakouts that are stronger in foreign currency than in Canadian. As we head into the Monetary Crisis Cycle, capital flight from Asia and Europe will continue and this will distort the profits they think they are making in real estate not understanding that they are playing the currencies.

Nevertheless, the is all part of the shift from Public to Private assets. While the “real terms” perspective of “value” may not be making new highs in purchasing power, this is still part of the shift from public assets. Some people will buy equities, others will go into real estate, and still others gold or other precious metals. The end game is to divest yourself of public assets and stay away from “fixed rate” investments where you are the creditor. Borrowers should be fixing their loans.

I worked with auto manufacturers in Japan and Germany. Their biggest problem was misunderstanding currency. A  911S Porsche in 1970 sold for $8,675 (31,579DM). In 1980, the same year the German automaker pulled its Turbo edition 911 in the United States, a new fifth-generation 911 cost $27,700 (46,507DM). The appreciation in dollars was 219% compared to an increase in Deuschemarks of only 47%. This created the image that German cars were better than American because they held their value. It was currency – not quality.

The majority of people just look at the price and do not understand that the currency swings can make a bad investment look good. You must always look at this from an international perspective.

The Right to Vote Extends to Dead People?

Posted Sep 16, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I assume you have seen the news how Florida has 53,000 dead people voting. Do you have a solution to the voter fraud?

JS

ANSWER: It is very simple. Voting should be done online, and voters should use their Social Security number which is required for just about everything these days. You cannot get on a plane without proving who you are. Why does the same not apply to voting?

If we voted online more people would vote, and you could easily check if the person is still alive or not. For the poor who have no computer, they could go to the local center or library and login there. They still have a Social Security number.

Aliens who live in the USA with green cards have a Social Security number. My view is if you are here legally and paying taxes, then you are subject to US laws and should be entitled to vote. If you are an alien and rob a store, you still enjoy the Constitutional rights. Those rights should apply to voting since it would be taxation without representation.

That eliminates dead people and illegal aliens.