Wednesday, March 16, 2016

4 elections away from chaos 1) BREXIT, 2) US Presidental Election, 3) Germany Election, and 4) French elections.

Posted Mar 17, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Anarchy
We are entering a period of major political change. This is being driven by the economy and this is what has driven our forecasting models. This is by no means a personal opinion or a desire on my part to see some sort of upheaval. The entire purpose of providing this type of forecasting is to PROVE that  when you mess with the economy, you create chaos that can lead to revolution domestically as well as international war.
The US press have adopted a new agenda. There were quiet phone calls being made that complained they created Trump by giving him too much attention. So what we say in headlines for Super Tuesday was this precise shift in the press away from Trump and to lead the story with Hillary. It will not be until June when we reach the California primary where it is a winner take all battled for 172 delegates.
Frauke Petry
In Germany, the right wing has captured the popular vote. The leader of Germany’s right wing Alternative for Germany Party (AfD) is Frauke Petry and she is celebrating huge gains in three regions. This is the beginning of the end for Chancellor Angela Merkel following the refugee crisis.
BREXIT On Schedule
BREXITIn Britain, the get out of the EU (BREXIT) is moving into high-gear. People are out and about handing out leaflets that basicly say if you want to be part of the EU, then cross the channel and join them.
BREXIT is right on schedule. Britain only joined in 1973. The interesting aspect has been that people are pointing to Switzerland as the example that you can be outside the EU and not just survive, but flourish.
Of course, not even the Swiss people are away that their political leaders had filed a petition to join. Why not. They surrendered all sovereignty to Brussels over banking, ending their secrecy laws that were imposed because Hitler had also made it a crime to have money outside of Germany like FATCA does to Americans. So ever so quietly, Switzerland’s National Council voted towithdraw an application to join the EU. 
So we are indeed just 4 elections away from complete chaos. (1) BREXIT, (2) US Presidental Election, (3) Germany Election, and (4) the French elections.

Monday, March 14, 2016

We may see a third party unfold by November

Posted Mar 14, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

The Republican Establishment is Destroying the Party of Reagan


REAGAN
Its the economy stupidMany emails have come in asking how in the world our computer predicted 2016 would be sheer political chaos years in advance. Our political models correlate to the economy as does war. This is not about being clairvoyant. This is about the simple facts. People demand change when their standard of living continually declines. Likewise, no war unfolds as long as everyone is fat and happy. The popular political cry was, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Ronald Reagan is probably the most respected Republican president since Abraham Lincoln. Reagan’s wife was his closest adviser. If they could not win Nancy’s approval, they would never get to Ron. It is perhaps timely that she has passed for she will not have to watch what the Republican elite have become. They effectively stand for everything that Reagan rejected just as David Cameron is the opposite of Maggie Thatcher. When I wrote to Reagan warning in 1985 that the formation of what became the G5 would lead to a crash by 1987, he order the Chief Economic Adviser Mr. Sprinkle to respond to me directly. Today, the Republican elite hired protesters in order to create the impression that a vote for Trump will bring violence, and it seems there is no floor to how low they will go to keep any non-politician from going to Washington.If I were Trump, I would immediately file suit against a protester and demand access to their bank accounts and follow the money trail from there and expose the culprits trying to create trouble. The Good Old Boys in DC like things the way they are. All we hear are promises to vote for someone for change and everyone cheers. But you cannot bullshit the people much longer.
The Democratic Party has always been a coalition of groups from women, minorities, and socialists but they all agree on one thing – where’s theirs? The Republicans are never a single coalition but a very diverse group. There are those who wish to force their religious beliefs on everyone else and then there are Libertarians who demand fiscal conservatism. Then there are the special interest groups who fund both sides so they are always in the game.
President-3rdParty
There is no time for personal opinion. We all have one, but we can only judge the future without biased self-interest. This is not about what I want to see happen; not what I personally would support. This has nothing to do with those things. This is about the facts and the trend.
The establishment is fighting with every possible dirty trick in the book. Rubio has flipped and is pulling his support for Trump if the candidate. This is outright war. The Republican elite are not about to accept the people’s decision. Screw the people. They will not support Trump and are hoping for a split for they want Hillary to win so all their friends, bankers, and families with government jobs can sleep easy at night and not have to worry that Trump may fire them all. So we may see a third party unfold by November. This is now on the wish list of the Republican elite. They will accept Hillary before any outsider who just might reform Washington. The media is now on board to stop Trump. This is an all-out political war and the loser is the people.

Sunday, March 13, 2016


The end of NATO, European Union and maybe the end of the socialist order
The end of NATO, European Union and maybe the end of the socialist order

Posted Mar 11, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

DJIND-W
DJFOR-W


While the markets have cheered the public admission that the central banks have completely failed in their quantitative easing and they will now buy more for longer, the technical profile is not as buoyant as it might appear on the surface. We have at least begun to enter the resistance area, but we have still NOT ELECTED any Weekly Bullish Reversal which stands at 17750.50. We have also not broken above the standard downtrend line on the weekly level. We have a turning point due next week. The general view in the USA is that the Fed should now raise rates since the market has recovered. If the Fed does not separate from the ECB and begins to focus on the US domestic policy objectives, then the future will be far worse.

We have the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week. It looks like we also have a Direction Change the week of 03/28 with an important turning point. There is no question that in Europe the ECB is confirming that the Eurozone is doomed. They have been unable to blend the divergent economies. The ECB will use the authority to expand to buy corporate bonds as a way to buy the balance sheets of banks and place a bid in the market so the banks will be willing to lend if they know they can turn around and hand-off any position to the ECB. Unfortunately, without fiscal reform, there is little hope of saving Europe now. The Sovereign Debt Crisis continues to unfold with no end in sight before 2020. There is no market for the ECB to ever sell everything they have bought. This will all catch up to us with a bang in 2017 – the year from political hell.

I cannot personally remember any moment as dramatic as this post-Cuban Missile Crisis when we were on the brink of war. Right now, we are amazingly just two or three bad elections away from 
the end of NATO, the end of the European Union, and maybe the end of the socialist order as we have known it our entire lives. Negative interest rates amounts to simply a tax on any money on what was left over.

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Rome & the Birth of the United States

Posted Mar 10, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

order OF THE CINCINNATI
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Are you saying they never intended to create a democracy since the founding fathers created the Electoral Collage?
ANSWER: Correct. We have a “REPUBLIC” not a Democracy despite the fact they call this a democracy. You vote for “delegates” to represent you. The rules allow them to defeat any public choice and claim that is the law. At the time of the founding, the popular research that was emerging had to do with Rome. Above is an Order of the Cincinnati founded by George Washington who was inspired by the Roman dictator Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus (519–430 BC), the aristocrat and statesman whose served as consul in 460 BC and dictator in 458 BC and 439 BC which made him a model of integrity and virtue. Cincinnatus was regarded by the Romans as a hero. When Rome was invaded, he was called to serve Rome as dictator, which was an office for one year. He defended the nation and then resigned two weeks later after defeating the rival tribes of the Aequians, Sabines, and Volscians. His immediate resignation of power returning to his farm demonstrated his integrity and lack of personal ambition. Washington would not accept the office of President until he had resigned as military leader and returned to private life. The Founding Fathers were deeply impressed with the battle of Rome against its Tarquin king giving birth to a Republic. Unfortunately, all Republics devolve into oligarchies as we are now experiencing.
Ben Franklin on one occasion, was dining at a Paris restaurant and learned that Edward Gibbon, the British historian of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, was there as well. Franklin invited Gibbon to his table, but Gibbon actually refused remarking that since he was loyal to George III, he wouldn’t speak with a rebel like Franklin. In reply, Franklin said that if Gibbon ever wanted to write a history of Britain’s decline and fall, he would provide ample materials. This illustrates the contrast of the period.

Order of Cincinnatti
George Washington’s Order of the Cincinnati medal sold by Sotheby’s $5,305,000
Nevertheless, everything the Founding Fathers did was to accept the model of a Republic from Rome, not a Democracy from Athens. Keep in mind that we were making the transition from monarchy to a republic at that time. That transition was monumental. However, hopefully our next transition will be from a Republic to a Democracy where we do not have career politicians.

Monday, March 7, 2016

FATCA punishes any foreign entity that does not report what an American is doing overseas

Total U.S. Fees to Resign Citizenship Exceed $12 million


Posted Mar 8, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
US Passport
Under FATCA, it has become impossible for small business to expand internationally. FATCA punishes any foreign entity that does not report what an American is doing overseas. This single law is causing an implosion in the world economy and politicians are too stupid to figure out that they have really harmed the global economy.
The net consequence has been a massive swarm of Americans resigning their citizenship because they cannot live, or even conduct business, overseas without U.S. taxes. U.S. citizens and long-term residents now have to pay $2,350 as a fee to give up their passports or green cards. This was just $450 previously. The fees alone have now reached $12.6 million according to the latest statistics. Americans are taxed on WORLDWIDE income even if they never use any service whatsoever. So while they claim the “rich” do not pay their “fair share,” the question becomes what is a “fair share” if you are not even here? It appears the definition is government’s perspective of a “fair share” or what everyone earns irrespective of using anything.

Freedom of Religion & Several Alexander (222-235 AD)



Posted Mar 6, 2016 by Martin Armstrong


Elagabalus Stone of Emesa

Mixing Religion and politics has been a major problem throughout history. It has never worked when one religion attempts to force upon others their particular belief. The Freedom of Religion, a cornerstone of the American Constitution, was the product of reason and understanding history. Religion has been responsible for more bloodshed throughout history than anything else just as we see ISIS today or the English Civil War, Protestant Reformation, and the takeover of Rome by Christianity. Examples of such chaos when one religion attempts to force itself upon the majority extends back into Roman times. According to the Historia Augusta (Heliogab. 1.6), when the Emperor Elagabalus (218-222AD) came to power, he had been the high priest in the city of Emesa which is Homs today in Syria. He then imposed his religion upon Rome and the Senate.
The Emesa region is historic for its worship of a black meteorite for which Elagabalus was high priest, that was known as the Stone of Emesa. This was supposed to be the Stone from the Sun God, which actually played a central role in the region for nearly 2000 years of various religious beliefs. The exact origin of the black stone of Emesa remains rather obscure, and it most likely fell to the Earth at least during the 2nd Century AD and possibly before since there was evidence of a priesthood that extended well before the 3rd Century.
Sept-AU-FamilyThe destiny of this particular meteorite was closely intertwined with that of a dynasty of king-priests who had been nomads, Bedouins of the desert, before settling down in Emesa. It is possible that the stone fell somewhere else in the Middle East and was carried by the tribe before they settled in Emesa. However, the Roman Emperor Septimus Severus (193-211AD) married Julia Domna from Emesa. Severus was determined to create a dynasty and he depicted his family on his coinage regularly.This would eventually give rise to a hereditary claim to the throne of the Roman Empire by her side of the family centered in Emesa.
Over time, this religious cult worshiping this Black Stone of Emesa became extremely famous and popular throughout the region. By the early 3rd century, the high priest known as Elagabalus from the family of Julia Domna became a Roman Emperor and the Stone of Emesa ended up being the chief deity of the Roman Empire by sheer force. This Black Stone was known under the title “deus invictus Sol Elagabalus,” the undefeatable sun which rises every day.
Stone of Emesa Denarius
The Black Stone of Emesa was depicted on the coinage of Elagabulus (218 – 222AD) and upon his rise to the throne as an heir of Julia Domna, Elagabalus’ religious beliefs began to surface as a problem to say the least. The contemporary historian Cassius Dio suggests he murdered his adviser because he was forcing him to live “temperately and prudently” (Cassius Dio, Roman History LXXX.6) in order to try to get the Romans adjusted to the idea of having an oriental priest as emperor. His mother, Julia Maesa, according to Herodian, Roman History, went as far as to send a painting of Elagabalus in priestly robes to Rome and hung over a statue of the goddess Victoria in the Senate House. He was forcing his religion upon Rome, which did not sit very well to say the least. His homosexual behavior was also creating a scandal, which was much more acceptable in the East compared to Roman culture. The army did not take kindly to these homosexual tendencies. Revolts were breaking out even before he reached Rome.
Elagabalium renamed Temple of Jupiter 224AD

Elagabulus brought the Stone of Emesa to Rome and built a temple there by the Palatine Hill he called the Elagabalium which was founded on the site of an earlier shrine to Orcus, a native Italic god of the underworld and a punisher of broken oaths. A portion of a capital from the Elagabalium was found in the Forum Romanum within the vicinity of the Palatine (R. Turcan, The Cults of the Roman Empire, 10th ed. [2008], p. 181, pl. 21). This capital confirms the appearance of the cult image and includes images of Minerva and Juno, providing important clues to the claims of Herodian (5.6) and Dio (80.12) that the emperor transported the Palladium to the Palatine in order to wed her to El-Gabal and later included a second spouse by bringing the cult statue of Juno Caelestis, the Punic Tanit, from Carthage. By doing so, Elagabalus was recreating at Rome the Emesene triad consisting of El-Gabal, Atargatis (Minerva), and Astarte (Juno Caelestis), thereby superseding the traditional Capitoline triad of Jupiter, Juno, and Minerva, the goddess of wisdom and the daughter of Jupter.
The legends of gods with always full of imagination. It was claimed that Jupiter impregnated the titaness Metis, but then recalled a prophecy that his own child would overthrow him. Fearing that their child would grow stronger and displace him to rule the Heavens, Jupiter swallowed Metis whole. The titaness forged weapons and armor for her child while within the Jupiter. Constant pounding and ringing by Minerva inside his head gave him a headache. To relieve the pain, Vulcan used a hammer to split Jupiter’s head and from the cleft emerged Minerva emerged fully grown and bearing her mother’s weapons and armor; quite a birth one would say. So Elagabalus was displacing this Triad of Jupter, Juno, and Minerva with his eastern El-gabal (replacing Jupiter), Caelestis (replacing Juno), and Atargatis (replacing Minerva). Clearly, Elagabalus sought to  subordinate Jupiter to El-Gabal, and to promote the latter god’s rites, he then demanded the Senate to honor El-Gabal before all other gods when performing their traditional sacrifices. The Elagabalium was to be the new center of this worship in Rome. His reign was notorious for religious fanaticism, for cruelty, bloodshed and excesses of every description, and there was general satisfaction when, on March 6th, 222AD, Elagabalus and his mother Julia Soaemias were murdered in the praetorian camp. Their bodies were dragged through the streets of Rome and thrown into the Tiber. He was one of the most hated emperors because he tried to impose his religion upon all of Rome by force.
Uranius_Antoninus Stone of Emesa
The Stone of Emesa was respected and sent back to Emesa. It appears in history once again on the coinage of another high priest who attempts the same path to the throne. When the Christians came to power, they destroy many objects. The Stone of Emesa was smashed. Smaller fragments survived in the region and were still worshiped.
Severus Alexander AE Sesterius Temple of Jupiter - R
Elagabalus was succeeded by his cousin Severus Alexander (222-235AD). He wasted no time undoing the religious machinations of Elagabalus. To advertise that religion was restored, he issued coins depicting the dedication of Elagabalus to Jupiter. He issued coins depicting the restoration of the Temple of Jupiter in silver denarii and the bronze sesterius pictured above as well as medallions. Severus Alexander was so open-minded, he wanted to allow the Christians to establish their temple in Rome as well. He was persuaded against that by the majority who did not accept the idea of just one God. They had gone through hell with Elagabalus and were not about to tolerate another Eastern cult.
Colosseum Severus Alexander
Severus Alexander Gold Aureus ColosseumSeverus Alexander (222-235AD) also issued coins announcing the restoration of the Colosseum was complete. On the day of the Vulcanalia, August 2nd, 217AD, a fire devastated most of the Colosseum and of the surrounding area. The Colosseum burned for several days and there was nothing left but its skeleton structure. The repairs began under Emperor Macrinus (217-218AD) and took about 30 years to complete since it was virtually reconstructed. When Several Alexander came to power in 222AD, the Colosseum was again inaugurated and dedicated to the gods. Coins were issued in gold, silver and bronze to announce the dedication.
Severus Alexander NYMPHAEUM - R2
Trophies of MariusThe third major structure announced on the coinage of Severaus Alexander was the Nymphaeum located in Piazza Vittorio Emanuele at a fork between the Via Tiburtina and the Via Labicana in Rome. Because the Romans invented concrete, a substantial portion of this monument remains. The construction in 226AD was brick-faced concrete. The fountain is reconstructed as a two-storied façade with a wide central niche and arched openings on each side. The overall appearance remains one of a triumphal arch. Statues indeed occupied the niches. Two such sculptures known as the “Trophies of Marius” which was removed by Pope Sixtus V in 1590 and still survives atop the staircase leading up to the Piazza Campidoglio. They were recycled from an earlier triumphal monument built by Domitian. The Nymphaeum was connected to the end of the aqueduct into Rome which was built inside an imperial villa at the time of Emperor Alexander Severus (222 – 235 AD).
Nymphaeum

Saturday, March 5, 2016

California earthquake due



Posted Mar 5, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Earthquakes

We are entering a period of an increased risk in earthquakes appearing in California. This begins here in March 2016.