Understanding Islam

Posted Oct 15, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Why do Islamic extremists hate us so much?

ANSWER: I have asked why is Russia our enemy when they are no longer communist, but nobody can answer that question. The response is usually, “They are Russian.” There is this same residual issue between Islam and Christianity in many circles that people cannot explain. The Turks effectively conquered Constantinople in 1453 and created the Ottoman Empire. Through different rulers, the objectives changed over the centuries. Sometimes the object was isolation and at other times it was conquest mode. This is true of the United States. The objectives change with administrations. Therefore, you cannot really label a people one way or the other.

The attempt to conquer Europe and the failure to take Vienna, which was was the seat of the Holy Roman Empire, in 1683 left a instinctive flavor in the mouths of Western leaders and forever made the Ottoman empire the enemy until they wiped it out in World War I. It took one Political Cycle of 224 years to complete the fall of the Ottoman empire, and the West therein laid the seeds for what we face today — the unintended consequences.

It was the West who installed power in the hands of various groups, including the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia. They were fighting an old enemy and did not comprehend the full scope of their nation building shifting the center of gravity in global Islam from the Turks to the Arabs. Both the Dutch and French attempted to prevent their Muslim subjects from deferring to the caliph of the Ottoman empire in their public prayers. It was the West who shifted the religious power from the Turks to the Arabs. That has resulted in the fragmentation of Islam where we have different groups with different interpretations and objectives.

This is really a consequence of those who run the military and their desire for nation building.

Kennedy, Nixon

Am I Biased for Trump?

Posted Oct 12, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT:  Mr.Armstrong,
I am wondering why you haven’t commented on the recent Trump scandal about the video with Billy Bush? Constantly seeing articles on how corrupt Hillary is but obviously you are biased towards Trump winning for not making a statement about his misogynist comments about women!
Sincerely,
PH

REPLY: There is a huge difference concerning statements from more than a decade ago and the countless financial frauds of Hillary. But Hillary is not the only “evil” person in Washington. A tape was given weeks in advance to Paul Ryan and elite Republicans and he never told Trump. This is part of the conspiracy between career politicians of both parties. I wrote: “Trump having a vulgar discussion about a number of women is indeed over the top and something you would expect from a locker-room banter.” That is far different from the rest on Capitol Hill who just line their pockets are you are their target. Yes, a tape that involved Billy Bush means he is being fired from the Today Show for banter more than a decade ago. However, other tapes show it was more the nature of Billy on a regular basis. This is what society has become.

Today. there is ZERO TOLERANCE for anything and the problem is that the human race is anything but perfect. Anyone who says they have never done or said anything wrong ever, is an absolute liar. The polls do show that even the majority of Republicans do not think tapes from more than a decade ago are relevant. Who hasn’t changed their mind from their youth or was Trump responding to a macho attitude of Billy Bush? Who knows? The Secret Service have revealed Hillary’s gutter mouth, violent temper, and she even called one you “Jew bastard”. What either one has said is not really the issue. Will this be about ending corruption or furthering it? Emails have surfaced showing Hillary gave preference to Bill’s friends trying to get a piece of the action in Haiti.  Nevertheless, if you want to vote for Hillary because of this incident, have a nice day. This is the Political Year From Hell. It will all be down hill from here into the future. Just send Hillary more money and whatever you would have left any kids in the future while your at hit. The next trade you lose, consider that a donation to the New York bankers as well. They have to eat too.

There is far more out there about the Clintons I do not rehash and I don’t bother to comment on. However, I also warned: “It will NEVER be the same after this election.”What you fail to grasp here is President Kennedy was notorious for having affairs. However, the Press did not cross that line between personal and criminal. Nixon was driven from office for having takes and trying to cover up, which is exactly what Hillary has done. 

By equating personal issues and banter with criminal activity means that nobody in their right mind would run for office who is even qualified.

Is Trump the knight in shining armor? Of course not. This election is by no means Republican v Democrat or even Trump v Hillary. This is the peak in government and the total collapse is unfolding right before our eyes. Trump cannot reverse that trend. He might slow it down a bit if he was even allowed to take office which I seriously doubt. They are conniving every possible scheme to ensure he does not win, and if he does, they will blame it on Russia and deny him the position. The Republican elite on against Trump.

This battle is really the PEOPLE v CAPITOL HILL. It is a shame it has to be Trump leading the charge. Hillary has raised $516.6M with almost 30% coming from Super Pacs. Trump has raised only $168.2M with only 1% from Super Pacs. About 99% of donations to Trump come from small people. Hillary has the bankers, lobbyists, and hedge funds. Don’t you even bother to ask why? The world behind the curtain is an all out war against Trump. Even the top three media outlets have instructed their employees to “destroy”Trump. This is also the end of the press. They have lost all credibility.

If you want to say I am biased, fine. But not for Trump as a personal candidate. I am biased against the system for it is corrupt, disgusting, and hopelessly beyond repair. This is what our computer is projecting and it has no personal bias. It simply says we have to crash and burn and then just maybe, if there is the slightest glimmer of hope, perhaps, we can rise from the ashes like the phoenix and redesign this mess all over again to leave our children something better than we inherited.

Otherwise, quite frankly, I have no personal desire to live in a world that is this far gone. I am glad I have seen the majority of my life pass me by. That is my personal selfish view. Like Star Trek, Scottie, please beam me up. I have seen way too much thank you

The 3 Units of Time Reaction Rule

Posted Oct 10, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Marty,

In your September 8 post you said “The Reversals have done a good job and this is actually an appropriate example of how to use them to stay out of trouble. Gold exceed the 1362 Month Bullish intraday moving up to 1377, but then failed to elect that number only to go crashing back down. On Friday, we had the 1311 Weekly Bearish. Gold fell to 1305 and then failed to elect that number only to rush back to the top of the channel.”

It seems the same is true on the quarterly level as well. Gold exceeded the quarterly bullish at 1347 then failed to elect on September 30. Now today it goes down hard. Fascinating to watch your reversals work. I have been confused over the last months as I anticipated a 3 month reaction that has stretched to several months. it makes sense now since this was a 3 quarter reaction. Is that what you mean by everything is fractal?

Thanks for the ongoing education. Sometimes hard to comprehend but worth the effort. Looking forward to the next video. Do you still see a Possible November high or has the pattern changed.

ANSWER: This is why we look at time on five major levels. Reactions are limited up to three units of time and that runs up to yearly. For example, even if we look at the Great Depression, you will see a fall in the Dow from 386 to the 42 area. That took place in 34 months of from September 1929 to July 1932. It is confined to the three-year rule. Because it fell so far, it could not continue.

The Nikkei turned into a bear market passing that three unit time interval. Then the minimum became five to six years, and the next is 10 to 13. Go beyond that and you are off into 23 to 26 years. So it is a factor of how far you move within a given time period.

Even in gold, we bottomed on the benchmark (a date that we gave years in advance) in December and then elected the first Quarterly Bullish at the end of 2015, signalling a bounce. Gold rallied but could not close above the Monthly Bullish, and then it crashed but could not exceed the Quarterly Bearish. If we close below our Yearly Bearish Reversal at year-end, it will get interesting indeed.

So we have the combination of a three-year drop into 2015 from the highest closing, but a three-quarter reaction rally.

Politicians - standard of perfection imposed by the press is just not realistic.

Hillary Wages Gender War in Addition to Class and Race Wars

POSTED OCT 9,2016 BY MARTIN ARMSTRONG

Many readers keep writing in to ask what is my personal opinion with all the latest row centering on Trump and women. The Washington Post in digging up old tapes of Trump and destroying the entire election process. Who has not said something stupid 20 years before? Nobody will run for office if this is what they must go through. This is why really qualified people would NEVER run for office. You have to be a loser with no real job skill other than how to bullshit people with a straight face to run for any office. Pathologicallying can be described as the habituation of lying. It is when an individual consistently lies for no personal gain, or in the case of politicians, to always pretend to be something they are not. The lies are commonly transparent and often seem rather pointless assuming people are stupid. There are many consequences of being a pathological liar and they involve political candidates. Why would any one run for office? The press will dig up whatever they can and use ex-girlfriends or ex-boyfriends to discredit you with just slander having nothing to do with your qualifications. Life is a learning process. We are not born perfect. You have to make mistakes in order to learn. This standard of perfection imposed by the press is just not realistic. People have often asked why I would not run for some office. I am not interested in such nasty confrontations. I joke and say when the position of dictator arises, fine. Otherwise, forget it. Your entire life must be put on display. This is totally insane.

This advertisement called Mirrors is clearly taken out of context. But what I am finding offensive is Hillary is revealing that she is a hard-core feminist who really does detest men behind the curtain. One of her college girlfriends congratulated her on being first lady and said she always knew that was where she was going, just sorry you had to “take this guy” with you.

Hillary’s whole attack now is all about women. What’s next? She will stroll down the street in her underwear joining the Slut Walks? Please! Spare us those images, thank you. She is not addressing anything Bill has done and is really avoiding all the real issues in this race. The more Hillary attacks Trump who somehow is disliking women reveals her own distaste for men. She obviously will not represent men fairly, for this is becoming all about women. The headline should be: 1960’s Bra Burning Feminist Takes the White House.”

Obviously the solution is we divide the country first into quarters and split between men and women and then left and right. Then we further divide each quarter into 4 races. That way, everyone can get along within their own private enclave. My bet, they would still wage war on neighboring groups. Guess there is just no hope for humanity.

Hillary’s motto must be divide & conquer. Guess I will start using the Hillary toilet paper a reader sent in.

China - should see the first political shake up by 2021/2022.

Financial Capitol of the World & Its Migration

Posted Sep 30, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:
I am a great admirer of your Socrates model, but there’s one thing in your personal pronouncements that seem to contain a contradiction. On the one hand you are predicting a decline of the U.S.A. and other western economies, mainly caused by excessive government interference in the economy. However, on the other hand you are predicting a rise in the prominence of China occurring simultaneously with the decline in the Western economies, yet the Chinese economy is still dominated by State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. Can you please explain this apparent contradiction?
Also, you (perhaps justifiably) continually put the boot into Western governments for their excessive involvement in their economies and yet you rarely, if ever, criticise the Chinese government’s heavy involvement in the Chinese economy. Why the double standard? Is Socrates is actually predicting a near-term decline in Chinese government involvement in their economy? And is there an allied Socrates prediction for increased democracy in China in the near-term?
Thanks for your great service,
Andrew.

ANSWER: You are missing the timing and overlap. It is true that the Chinese government is still trying to manage its transition to a free economy. Ultimately, that will happen. However, the difference between the former communist regions such as Europe, Russia, and China, in comparison to Western Europe, such as North America, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, is significant whereas the former region has people who do not depend on government and the latter still expects government to be there to take care of us until we die. A collapse in government in the former communist regions will not be as devastating to the common people and it would be in the Western developed world. China and Russia learned that Marxism failed. It is simply our turn in the West to experience the same as they did with the collapse of socialism.

After 2032, the financial capital of the world will simply migrate to China. It always migrates. You are assuming that the government of China will survive in its current form. They too will change and alter. In the West, governments are not interested in reform. They are only interested in holding on to power. This is simply how empires, nations, and city-states have always historically failed.
China is moving through its reform stage that began in 1989.95. We should see the first political shake up by 2021/2022. That is simply how long it will take from the beginning in 1989.95. They are simply at a different point in their own cyclical history

Funds that have been rushing to lend into Africa should be sold now.

The Hunt for Taxes is Unleashed in Africa

Posted Sep 24, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Nigeria has begun the hunt for taxes as they target 700,000 firms as the country is desperate to look for more revenue as its income from oil has collapsed. Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy and it has entered its first recession in more than 20 years as overspending produces only higher taxes, not economic reform. The current President is Muhammadu Buhari, since 29 May 2015. Politics began to change in Nigeria also going into 2015.75 turning point for government worldwide. The 2015 election marked the first time in the history of Nigeria that an incumbent president actually ever lost to an opposition candidate in a general election. So the ECM is truly a global model and not based solely upon a single country or trend.

Africa was the fastest-growing continental economy on the planet going into 2015. However, the one thing that was growing faster than the economy was of all is debt in every category from personal and corporate in the private sector to government. In 2015 Africa’s debt reach an untenable level and not the hunt for taxes has begun. In 2014 countries such as Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire (less than five years after a previous government-debt default), and Zambia all placed bonds worth as much as $1 billion into the market and these issues were oversubscribed because of the collapsing interest rates in developed countries. Kenya’s record-breaking sale of $2 billion in debt back in 2014 was also oversubscribed four times over.

Currently, Nigeria is struggling to fund a record $18.6 billion 2016 budget (6.06 trillion naira) that, following Keynesianism, is expected to stimulate growth by tripling capital expenditure. These measures are failing of a worldwide basis. Nevertheless, government are all following the same play book despite the fact it never works.

According to the IMF, back in 2009 the entire of sub-Saharan Africa raised almost $5 billion issuing bond, which included both private and sovereign issues. By 2013, that debt issue had grown to $14 billion and it exploded to about $20 billion by 2014. Africa’s total debt-to-GDP ratio dropped sharply to 30% going into the economic crash 2008-2009 only because of defaults and debt forgiveness. However, in some countries, this debt-to-GDP is exploding back up towards 70% or higher.

Rock stars had helped convince the international community to write off more than $100 billion of African government borrowings back before 2010. This time, the debts are back and have been exploding. It just seems as this debt-forgiveness never works for it hides the crisis and fuels them to do the same once again. it’s getting tougher for countries to pay them off.
Mozambique was indeed one of the biggest beneficiaries of debt forgiveness when its debt was written off by 86% of GDP back in 2005 to just 9%. The debt simply has grown all the way back to 61% of GDP. One has to wonder how stupid people are to lend government money.
Ghana’s debt was 82% of GDP back in 2005. Their debt was forgiven by 50%. It too has seen its debt climb all the way back up to 73% of GDP. However, back in 2003 terms, its debt was $7.5 billion. Today, the debt is now $25 billion.



Funds that have been rushing to lend into Africa should be sold now. Their investment rush into Africa reminds me after the 2005 debt forgiveness efforts of George Bush trying to figure our the fool me once line. How many times will these fund manager buy public debt that always ends up that they have to forgive it?

If theproperty cycle become extensive and people migrate just walking away

Germany About to Raise Property Taxes Significantly                 

Posted Sep 24, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

The greatest problem with real estate is you cannot pick up and leave. The Federal Council in Germany is planning to re-evaluate the approximately 35 million homes in Germany. It is now expected that the result is likely to be a significant increase in the property tax. Administrative expenses for the state fund-raising action is very significant and more than 50% of municipalities were in financial trouble BEFORE the refugee crisis.

This is the final stage of property - before capital begins to shift to equities. The significant difference appears before a major crisis or Dark Age event. The property becomes the target of taxation and as taxes become insane, property values decline. The end game is people just leave. This is how what use to be vibrant places to live become ghettos. If the cycle become extensive and people migrate just walking away, you go through the phase such as Detroit and move on to situations like Rome. They have no choice but to abandon the property.If the cycle become extensive and people migrate just walking away.