The Next Plague Due 2019 ?

Ebola Virus – The Next Plague Due 2019?

QUESTION: Hello Martin
Please inform if the spread of the Ebola virus is showing up your viewing of the current cycles.
B
ANSWER: This Cycle of War has been incredible for it is linked at the core with weather, economics, plagues, and natural disasters. You cannot look at war in isolation for its cause is rooted also within human nature.
The Romans were great secretaries and tended to record events of this nature. When we analyzed the history of plagues, we found a strong correlation to Pi (π). The span of just the major plagues recorded by the Romans was 474 years divided by 6 events produces 79 and dividing that by Pi 3.14 gives us 25.15 years. This is very close to the 8.6 frequency (3 x 8.6 = 25.8). Testing this frequency brought us to the Black Death/Plague of the 14^th Century, the Great Influenza of the mid-19^th Century that killed many on my own family, the influenza at World War I, the Malaria epidemic of 1940, and the next target being 2019.


Whether or not this is the next great plague or we are waiting for it, it is too difficult to say but we are in the red zone for the next one is due. If it is Ebola, it will subside at first and remain contained to its region with devastating results in Africa. But it will then start to spread internationally by 2016 and then reach the climax in just 3.14 years to 2019. So this may be early for the Ebola to be it. However, it seems to qualify with a 60%-90% mortality rate that is up there with the Black Death.
The outbreak is the largest and deadliest on record, with more than 670 deaths and more than 1,200 infections in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Fatality rates for Ebola have been as high as 90% in past outbreaks, according to the World Health Organization.
Health experts at the CDC have been working with African nations since the Ebola outbreak began in March. But officials are on alert now, after news that a man with Ebola was able to board a plane and arrive in Lagos, the capital of Nigeria. He later died. Two Americans providing humanitarian assistance in West Africa have become infected with Ebola. Family members of one of them, Kent Brantly, a doctor, had been living with him in Africa, but returned to the USA before he began showing symptoms.
Economically, the Black Death killed about 50% of the European population and created a shortage in labor. That came from Asia brought by the Tartars to Crimea (Ukraine). They catapulted the dead bodies into the forts of the Europeans who fled taking back with them. This resulted in altering the economy creating wages as landlords now competed for labor and serfdom came to an end in Western Europe (Russia continued into the 19^th century).
Plagues have drastically altered the course of our economic history. Such events over the centuries cannot be ignored. They have often inspired war and show a strong correlation with such events. From the American perspective, both World War I and II contributed greatly to the construction of American wealth. In both cases, while Europe was running around blowing each other’s brains out, American factories were busy at work producing the means to accomplish the event.

Currency Devaluation and impact on other assets

Argentina Defaults – Assets Rise?

31 July 2014

By Martin Armstrong

Argentina is moving into default and they could trigger bondholder claims between $25 to $30 billion. This is an amount equal to all its foreign-currency reserves. True,  if overdue interest on Argentina’s dollar-denominated debt due 2033 is not paid by July 30, then provisions in bonds known as cross-default clauses would allow the nation’s other debt holders to also demand their money back immediately.

So why has the Argentine stock market been blasting upward for the last 25 months? This is a classic capital response that is precisely the same that is argued for a hyperinflation. If a country defaults, its currency declines. However, domestically, tangible assets rise for everything advances under such a scenario. Those who think capital is wrong just do not understand capital flows. This is the eternal battle between PUBLIC and PRIVATE assets being displayed for all to see.



Here too we are seeing November as a very critical turning point. This is showing up in absolutely every market around the world. This is how money really moves. If you think this is dumb, well you better go back to school.



The entire devaluation of the dollar by FDR in 1933 produced the same result. As the currency declined assets rise. FDR’s Brains Trust disagreed. FDR listened to George Warren and noticed that Britain recovered when then defaulted on their debt in 1931. So pay attention. International law may mean nothing at the end of the day because Argentina will not be alone.

This is that international value that comes into play how everyone vies assets in terms of their own sense of values expressed in their home currency. I will try to put books to together on how capital really moves under these various conditions. Just have to find someone interested in this subject and a good editor to put help bring this all together. I have so many projects and limited amount of time. But yes – this is something on my wish list to get accomplished.

Crude Oil- rally into 2017

Crude Oil & The Future

Posted on July 9, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

Reply

The USA is amazingly going to produce more oil that Saudi Arabia and Russia making it the largest producer in the world according to all the data so far with just Four years into the shale revolution.When that happens and by how much, is still debatable. The estimates that depend on uncertain factors ranging from progress in drilling technology to the availability of financing and the price of oil itself.
Is there a cost? I reported from direct sources in Pennsylvania that the number of earthquakes in the region of fracking have increased tremendously. The water supply has been contaminated and to prevent the issue from getting a lot of press and lawsuits, the drilling firms now supply water to all the homes delivered in by truck.
Squinting into a laptop perched on the back of his pickup, Austin Holland searches for a signal from a coffee-can-sized sensor buried under the grassy prairie.
Now in Oklahoma there too has been a large increase in earthquakes that have for the first time exceeded California. They are calling this an “unprecedented earthquake epidemic” in the state.It seems on the surface that pumping wastewater from oil and gas drilling back into the Earth has contaminated ground water and may also set off earthquakes.


Nevertheless, oil peaked intraday in 2009 but the highest yearly close came in 2011. It is poised to rally into 2017 and it appears this is lining up with our war models. We will be looming at this market and other in the near future. The patterns are interesting and the fundamentals may speak of increased supply in the USA, but the price may be driven by other events especially when we have people like Lindsey Graham willing to kill everyone’s children for his personal hatred of the US constitution and the world. South Carolina should be forced to pay retribution payment to all the families destroyed by Graham. He has used scare tactics every time swearing we will be attacked if we do not act. Put him in the front line please since he wants to invade Iraq again this July. Neither Graham nor McCain ever saw a country they would not invade.

Dow- a high in July could produce a low in October and v v. Dow -26K in October 2015

US Share Market – A Glimpse into the Weeks Ahead

Posted on July 8, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

The US Share Market has confused many and those who swear we are headed into a 1929 crash just cannot comprehend this is a global economy. We have to be concerned about July for there is the potential for a July high with a low in Oct/Nov. The volatility will begin to rise come September and reach its first high around December/January. The potential for the Dow to rise up to the Breakout Line from the 2009 low remains intact. That would be a target of almost 26,000 by October 1, 2015.

The Breakout Channel from the June 2012 low forms a nice guide channel in the cash S&P 500. We can see the shift where we were penetrating the bottom of the channel has now inverted so we penetrate the top now. The top of that channel for July resides at:

7/07 198030 – 7/14 198562  - 7/21  199095  -  7/28 199627  -  8/04 200159

This will provide both the resistance and support to pay attention to this month. The timing for turning points is also quite clear.

The key week looks to be 7/21 with a slight tendency to be briefly early the week of 7/14.

Watch the reversals and these will provide us with a good guide. A July low at that time could result in a reversal rally into the October time period whereas a high at that time could produce a low in October.

Communism/Socialism v Capitalism/Democracy

Posted on July 8, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; This battle between socialism and capitalism, is there any precedent from history that you can site for this clash of Titans?

Thanks;

DP

ANSWER: Oh yes. Marx was convinced about communism from the French who began the commune movement in the late 1700s with the French Revolution. However, Marx did research and took the side of Sparta against Athens using in part Aristotle’s complaint about the market economy in Athens was changing the social values. He called them the people who made money from money. Aristotle felt that the establishment of brokers who then would encourage farmers to grow more crops that could be sold overseas changed Athens. True, it made Athens the financial capital of the world. The famous Athenian decadrams were a two-tier coinage used for international trade in large transactions. They were too big for normal circulation. Kind of like a $100,000 bill.

Communism first appeared in the historical record back in Ancient Greece. This was the classic battle like our modern cold war. Athens was the capitalistic system that had its own internal battle between the Oligarchy and Democracy, which we have still today. Sparta was the communistic state so much so, they NEVER adopted coinage and these spits were maintained to PREVENT people from hoarding wealth – sound familiar with electronic money and cancelling currencies?

Marx drew his belief that Communism would prevail because Sparta defeated Athens in 404 BC. However, to be fair, Sparta was in league with its neighbors, especially Corinth whose own coinage competed with Athens in trade. So Sparta was the Communist state, but it was aided by other capitalistic cities to knock out the financial capital of the world so they could replace it. This division eventually led to opening the door to the northern Macedonians to take all of Greece under Philip II and his son Alexander the Great.

We can see the impact of this battle against Athens as its coinage was debased just as in Roman. The coinage going into the collapse 406-404 BC became bronze silver plated.

So yes. This battle has been fought many times in history. As I have said, you cannot forecast the future without understanding the past. It is truly a catalogue of solutions if you take the time to map it out without bias and prejudice.

You simply cannot have an admixture as we have today. This is why you see politicians doing everything possible to kill democracy for that falls whenever socialistic/communism rises. That collapses the economy sucking in everything like a black-hole and then the pendulum swings back and you get freedom once again with revolution against the oligarchy/monarchy – no taxation without representation. The EU Commission is doing the precise pattern as always – deny representation to serve the oligarchy. The USA is moving in the same direction.

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Computer Modeling Depends upon the Input – UN Global Warming Model DEAD Wrong for 18 Years!

Posted on July 7, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

It does not matter what we talk about be it markets of climate. If the data you are putting in garbage, you get garbage out. When it came to economic, I began a quest to gather data from ancient times to see even how the rise and fall of empires have developed. Those who created models on markets watched them fail time and time again because the data series was at best back to 1971.

The computer models design for the global warming are seriously flawed. They (1) fail to take into consideration the fluctuation of the energy output of the sun fluctuate significantly as illustrated above, (2) the polar ice caps expand and contract with the seasons, (3) the magnetic poles shift as well while on the sun they reverse every 11 years (which i went into detail in the Mayan Report), and (4) the polar ice caps actually MOVE! They will move away from Canada and into Russia at the current pace. When the poles flip, that is the chaotic move abruptly.

The pictures of polar bears on ice are very nice and compelling. But this has NOTHINGto do with man. These trends were in motion LONG before automobiles were invented. Honestly, this is political propaganda. In order for mankind to have created this trend, then there shouldNEVER have existed any previous cycle whatsoever. This is just witch-doctor science.

In the Mayan report, I explained the theory behind the ice age again was the discovery of frozen woolly mammoths. Suddenly, those discoveries shocked science even Issac Newton was moved in his theory confronted with the realization that the system was not linear but chaotic with sudden changes.

Here we have these climatologists arguing there is global warming that then creates massive funding to support this crazy unsupported theory. This is like economists who argue for socialism and intervention so they create employment for themselves. If they said it was just the business cycle, then who needs them?  Just follow the money. Both groups argue for whatever they need to create their own jobs – global warming and socialism.

The UN computer predictions have been completely laughable and are now the subject of wide-scale ridicule: They have never gotten anything right for 18 years running now. The model design is a total and complete joke. They measure one spot only and ignore the fact that the poles even move. Consequently, this global warming is propaganda. Around the world, when you actually measure total ice formation, there is now about 1 million sq km of more sea ice than there was 35 years ago! This establishes they are monitor one segment and if the poles move they claim its warming because the ice melted in that spot.
Using fixed weather stations when everything moves is plain stupid and a fraud.

This is the very same problem with economics. Faulty assumptions lead to erroneous conclusions. You cannot build static models assuming anything within a dynamic world.

2032: The 6th Wave – Shift Pubic to Private. Weather collapses into cold. Power shift to Asia.

 

Posted on July 6, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

The battle between opposite forces exists in everything. This is the classic left v right within every society. This manifests in where does the confidence of the people reside for the majority – within government or the private sector. We are in a 309.6 year Public Wave that ends in 2032.95. This force actually oscillates back and forth in 8.6 year intervals. But the overall wave structure is a public wave while the current 51.6 year wave is Private. This builds up into a major crisis and why I have been so concerned about the future.

2032.95	p
1723.35	v
1413.75	p
1104.15	v
794.55	p
484.95	v
175.35	p

Here are the major turning points in these major waves of 309.6 year intervals. The seriousness of this series of dates illustrates the problem. This pinpoints the peak in the Roman Economy during the reign of Marcus Aurelius who died in 180 AD an the next target marks the end of the Roman Empire that formally falls in 476AD with the last real emperor. However, then the barbarians assume the throne for a brief period of time. They issued coins that appeared to be Roman in appearance. Effectively, at the end, the barbarians wanted to be Romans where as the Vandals just stripped even the copper from the roofs of temples in Rome.

Even global warming follows this model of 309.6 years for the energy output of the sun fluctuates in about 300 year cycles that have been determined from the study of ice core samples from the North Pole known as solar variation. Hence, we are in this final warming phase and then we will turn back to extreme cold weather rather rapidly the same as a market crash. At the start of a 309.6 year cycle, the weather collapses into cold. Here is a picture of Washington crossing the Delaware River by Philadelphia with huge chunks of ice. I have NEVER seen such ice in that river in my life-time. The sun is simply a thermodynamic system that beats like your heart – it is just physics. Cars did not come into any real use until the 1940s. We are moving into the high on this cycle in 2032 in many ways.

What comes after 2032.95 will be a major change in climate and politics. This is why I warn we can go toward freedom or toward authoritarianism and this shift will be rather abrupt. This will be like the fall of Rome and the financial capital of the world will shift from the USA to Asia. What we are left with at the end of the day will be critical. We learn from the past in hard-sciences (technology) but in social science, personal self-interest dominates our views and prejudices moving forward.
This trend of shifting confidence is like politics – no one party wins all the time. We swing back and forth like in a sports game. The Huffington Post reported about a study, conducted by EMC Research that was composed of three in-depth surveys in late 2013, one by telephone and two on the Internet. The historical trends on dissatisfaction and alienation were confirmed by this study as it shows the American public is becoming increasingly distrustful of the government over the past several decades.

US/ UK versus Europe. 2014= 2027

Then & Now – Always the Same

Posted on July 3, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

 

We are at the 1927 Phase of events that is important to understand. There has historically always been a difference in economics trends between Europe and America. This became self-evident back in 1720 that was the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles. One of the earliest forecasts that our computer made back in 1980 was that Britain would separate economically from Europe and align more with the United States. This was a shocking forecast that made no sense to me. Countries just do not invert economic trends so easily. Because of that forecast, I really had to develop the means to communicate with this machine and to inquire what was behind that forecast.

After teaching it language and the ability to communicate, Socrates began to teach me. This forecast was spectacular for this was the correlation models, not the laptop version that only analyze individual markets. When the global correlation models were developed, this is where the real AI came into existence. The computer had correlated all the European economies and markets the discovery of the North Sea Oil changed the dynamics of the entire layout. The introduction of energy shifted the British economy and was aligning it with America rather than continental Europe. This shift has been maintained and is part of the reason the British pound still exists against the euro.

Now we see still the long-range impact of that forecast made so long ago. To this day, the central banks are splitting and moving in separate directions. Interest rates will rise in Britain and the USA against going negative in Europe, This is precisely the same event that kicked off the Phase Transition into 1929. The central bankers had a secret meeting in 1927 and the USA lowered interest rates in an attempt to deflect the capital inflows into the USA from Europe. That confirmed Europe was in trouble and set the stage for the subsequent events including World War II that would not have taken place but for the economic crash in 1931 that even brought Adolf Hitler to power in 1933 along with Mao in China and FDR in the USA. It is ALWAYS economics.

The lowering of interest rates by the Fed in 1927 trying to make Europe appear more attractive confirmed Europe was in trouble and set in motion a shift in trend within the USA that was monumental. This marked the peak in the Florida real estate bubble. As that bubble burst, capital then shifted into the US stock market even with rising interest rates. Hence, the Dow rallied with rising interest rates – it did NOT decline. As the expectation of profits exceeded the rate of interest, the market rallied. As I have said, it is always the net return that counts.

We can see that looking at the timing, it was exactly 26 months from the central bank meeting to the people in the US stock market during that phase transition.December 13th, 2013 began the announcement that the Federal Reserve would begin its $10 billion tapering of QE3. If we applied the same timing of 26 months, that would bring us to February 2016.

July 2013 was interesting for this is when Croatia becomes the 28th member of the European Union while Vítor Gaspar, Minister of Finance of Portugal, resigns due to lack of support and willingness to strengthen austerity measures, prompting a political crisis. The European Central Bank and the European Commission release a joint report on the banking system in Spain, indicating that system is solvent and will not require “further program disbursements. Greece secures an additional 6.2 billion euros from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund despite warnings that the Greek government is moving too slow to reform the government.

On July 21, 2013, Voters in Japan go to the polls for an election with the governing coalition led by Shinzo Abe winning control of the upper house. The economic decline in China begins to be noticed as Wells Fargo of the United States becomes the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, replacing the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China amid an economic slowdown in China. China begins a major effort to boost its economic growth with business tax breaks and export liberalization, amid an increasing industrial slowdown.

In the USA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 close at record highs on July 12th, 2013, with the NASDAQ hitting its highest level in ten years. On July 18th, with $18.5 billion in debts, the city of Detroit, Michigan files for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, becoming the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. Meanwhile, this is also when former United States spy agency contractor Edward Snowden applies for political asylum in Russia.

From sources, July 2013 is when people began to look at a shift in the tapering.The FMOC meeting noted that the economy was strengthening in July 2013 contrary to Asia and Europe. With hindsight, July 2013 may mark that pivot point from which 26 month will take us to 2015.75

When Will the Monetary System Crack?

 

Posted on July 2, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

Reply

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong: Thank you so much for coming in front of the curtain. Your views are absolutely enlightening. You provide colour to events from experience and I have sat in meetings at the …….. bank shocked at the lack of understanding that emerges from the board of directors. You are correct. They are the people who are simply bureaucrats lacking any experience in the field they pretend to direct. I can see from our own movement of capital on behalf of clients that they are indeed just trying to get off the “grid” as you eloquently put it. They seem to be focused on real estate, but there are some starting to notice the American stock market even here in London. I can also see what you are talking about with capital flows and the dollar rally that seems inevitable from the European perspective even though I am not allowed to speak to the press working in a bank.
My question is just this. Will the monetary system crash in 2020 or will it be on the next cycle in 2024?
Thank you again from those in the field who can only read and not speak. You do it for us. Good on ya
EP
PS It is interesting to watch people trying to plagiarise you claiming to see war cycles and trends without any depth of what lies behind it.

ANSWER: I am dealing with this question in the coming Gold Report. However, suffice it to say the crisis years are 1932 – 1963 – 1995 – 2026 based upon the Pi cycle. There is also the Monetary Crisis Cycle that I will deal with in the report. Of course, 1932 was not just the low in the US share market and the incident of the Bonus Army, it was the Presidential election that shifted power to the Democrats. FDR swore the night before the election in a radio address that it was absurd that he would confiscate gold. This rumor was being spread and the defense against it was the typical conspiracy theory argument. FDR nonetheless devalued the dollar subsequently and confiscated gold making 1932 the real effective peak.
The next target 1963 was when silver was pressing higher and 1964 was the end of silver coinage with the redemption of the Silver Certificates and the birth of even $1 Federal Reserve notes. In the 1963 series of currency, we see the appearance of the Federal Reserve note and the end of Silver Certificates.


This brings us to 1995. Here we have the low in the dollar and the high in the Japanese yen on the first thrust. This was the move that really broke the back of Japan. The subsequent decline in the dollar was the capital contraction in Japan as people liquidated foreign investments due to the fall in value in yen terms. Consequently, the land of the rising sun began to set in 1995.


This brings us most likely to the Pi cycle target after 2024.35. That is when 911 took place to the day and when Greece began with the realization that there was trouble in the sovereign debt world of Europe.
This previous 8.6 year wave that peaked in 2007.15 was just the beginning with the realization of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The current wave that peaks in 2015.75 should start the debt crisis with more government being forced into insolvency. This is what the IMF proposal is all about and the Fed looking to impose an exit tax on the most liquid market in the world – US debt. The next wave 2024.35 will be the pulling apart of the world monetary system and the peak of this wave in 2032.95 is most likely where the tangible assets rise as a store of value in a world of uncertainty with respect to the medium of exchange.

The bottom of the 3rd wave (2011.45) in our immediate 51.6 year wave was the start of the shift in capital to private investment on a visible level against domestic views and statistics. This is when I warned the stock market would breakout and move to new highs, which was reported by Barrons. Curiously, this was the same position in time on the wave of the Decline and Fall of Athens 455-404BC. The bottom of that 3rd wave was the uprising orchestrated by the Oligarchy against Pericles in 430BC and he died the next year.
The arrogance of Athens and the Oligarchy is the exact same problem we have with government today and the abuse of the NSA. All governments are doing the exact same thing precisely on the same timeline as the fall of Athens. They are trying to eliminate the right of the people to vote and we are experiencing not merely their arrogance, but their opposition to any democratic processes the same as Cleon did in prosecuting Pericles for being honest. If this plays out in the same fashion, the US will lose its standing as the financial capital of the world as did Athens, and the real danger is with the war cycle turning up, it is the arrogance in the West among our politicians that can invite the invasion as it did in the case of Athens.
History repeats because human nature repeats and never changes. Just as the Oligarchy was determined to take back control of Athens banning democracy, we see the very same thing taking place today – hello the Troika is a controlling body of representatives of the ECB, IMF, and the EU Commission that is unelected by the people – Oligarchy of career politicians. The role of the Troika is to negotiate with member countries of the Eurozone where the state budget has run into difficulties. That is correct – the IMF and Christine Legarde holds an unelected political position without any election process of the people. This is the same as any Oligarchy.

TROIKA (Triunvirate)

• European Commission President (elected by heads of state not people)
• European Commission Vice-President , Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs (Official) Olli Rehn Finland Finland
• European Commission designated negotiator; Matthias Mors Germany
• European Central Bank President of the ECB; (Official) Mario Draghi Italy
• European Central Bank Head of Department at the ECB, named negotiators Klaus Masuch Germany
• IMF Managing Director; Christine Lagarde France
• IMF designated negotiator: Poul Thomsen Denmark

Diversification by Central Banks into US equities- September 2014 risk of slowdown ?

Confusing Share Market

Posted on June 30, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

In the short-term, we still have the risk of a modest correction. There is typically the false move before the breakout. There is little question that there has been low volume over the past couple of years with light on up days and higher volume on down days.  This has been the constant attempts to short the market that causes the grinding rally. The retail speculators who are the typical buy high sell low crowd are still absent. This seems to be caused by the perpetual bearishness among the retail “advisers” and the typical mainstream press.

Yes, there has been the company repurchases, but even this has not sparked a lot of piggy-backing one expects in a bull market. Then there is the foreign central banks that have been active buyers pushing the market higher just trying to diversify. Therein lies a WARNING. Why are central banks buying stocks? (1) To diversify away from sovereign debt that they know is a huge problem, and (2) the diversification away from just dollar bonds given the lack of any alternative currency. Even Russia is smart shifting issuing their debt in dollars to euros. Why? The dollar has a risk of new highs while issuing debt in Euros has a better chance of depreciation.

Then we have the rising risks with Japan. There is a strong correlation between USD/JPY and S&P futures. What is this about? Again, diversification if war appears on the horizon with Russia and China. The risks of capital flows into the US equities remains high, but more so after September this year.

The Fed wants the stock market to rise so they can raise interest rates. They need higher rates in order to have room to lower them when necessary. We most certainly live in interesting times.