Russia to Cut off Germany from Gas Thanks to Zelensky - higher volatility in August

 

Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is very interesting how Volodymyr Zelensky is doing whatever he can, not merely to destroy all of Europe, but to push the world into World War III because of his and Ukraine’s inherent hatred of Russians. He has told Justin Trudeau that Ukrainians would never accept Canada’s decision to return a gas turbine intended for a Russian pipeline because it would encourage more sanctions violations. Meanwhile, Gazprom has come out and stated that it could no longer guarantee its “good functioning” pipeline to Germany due to crucial turbines that are being held up in Canada because of sanctions.

Gazprom has declared extraordinary circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to Germany, whereby the gas flow to Europe will stop flowing indefinitely. Reuters reported a letter dated July 14, 2022. Zelensky thinks cutting gas supplies to Germany will force NATO to invade Russia. Kyiv will be the first to go before Zelensky can make it to his private jet to run off to enjoy the hundreds of millions he is stashing offshore.

Perhaps Germany should now invade Ukraine. It seems to be the only way to save Europe.

Our computer has been targeting here late July and August and high volatility and August as a Panic Cycle in some markets. But just about everything is going nuts into 2023. A quarterly closing above $6.25 in natural gas, which it has NOT been able to achieve this far, will confirm this is going to get much worse. Therefore, a September closing ABOVE $6.25 will be a serious warning for 2023. We had a rare Double Directional Change this quarter, so it looks like we have the most brain-dead crop of world leaders ever in human history and Zelensky, who I warned was the man who would create World War III.

Even NYC lost over 5,000 small businesses thanks to COVID. There isn’t a single decision these people are capable of making. It has reached the point that people who I know personally, who would be qualified to lead, are simply not interested due to the WOKE culture. We are simply headed into a politically created nightmare.

We see sharply higher volatility in August and the SIGNIFICANT risk of war coming in the first quarter of 2023. This is NOT something that is my personal opinion. The only thing that can actually target periods well in advance is an unbiased computer. It was Socrates that targeted 2008 as a Panic Cycle published back in 1999, which can be verified on the Wayback Machine. That was not only the Great Crash that set in motion negative interest rates theories, but it was the historical high in the euro.

The Untold War in Syria and Deserted Pipelines

 

osted Jun 30, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

We’ve heard of the refugees and people fleeing Syria for a better life, but the media rarely reports how dire the situation has become. Reuters recently reported that 1.5% of the Syrian population is DEAD due to the ongoing war. Estimates state that around 83 people (18 who are innocent children) die every day in Syria. So why has everyone overlooked this decade-long deadly battle?

I mentioned in 2013 how former President Obama wanted to invade Syria. In 2009, Qatar proposed a pipeline that would have sent energy to Europe from Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan. Then Syrian ruler Assad, backed by Russia, began negotiating for a different pipeline with Iran that would run gas to Europe from Iraq and Syria. Russia saw an economic advantage to having the latter pipeline as the US was too closely linked to Qatar, and therefore, the Iranian pipeline became a priority for Russia.

Putin met with Obama in 2015 to ask him to support Assad against ISIS. Obama objected as that was not economically beneficial for the US and would give Russia almost a monopoly over European energy. Obama began suddenly lifting sanctions on Iran to break the forming alliance. Russia entered Syria on the exact day the ECM predicted, and the US began backing Assad’s opposition even though that meant funding the terrorist group ISIS.

There have been no developments on the Iran–Iraq–Syria pipeline (known as the friendship pipeline) since 2013. The Syrian people have been left to rot. There is so much virtue signaling for Ukraine, but numerous nations invaded Syria and left their economy and infrastructure in shambles. No politician cares about the people; nearly all decisions are made based on money. The US lost this battle as Russia remains an energy powerhouse with a stronghold on the entire energy sector. Thanks, Obama.

Is There Really More Oil in The Golan Heights than in Saudi Arabia? Who’s Genie Energy?

Posted May 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong I live in Israel and today I listened to your podcast with Macrovoices. At some point you mentioned that there is more oil in Golan heights than in Saudi Arabia -and this oil belongs to genie energy. Is it true? How can it be that nobody knew nothing about this in Israel? Are you sure 100 % about this information? I will be happy to know more about this.

best regards

EP

ANSWER: Yes. This is one of the best kept secrets. You can imagine that if this went into production, then the disputed Syrian land issue occupied by Israel would come to the forefront. This is why it gets no play but this is one reason Obama was working to overthrow the Syrian government. They would not have political people on the Strategic Advisory Board if they did not need political strings pulled.

Politically, you have the Pipe Line from Qatar being one major issue that was to compete with Russia in selling gas to Europe, which is why Putin is involved. He is not involved in Egypt, Israel, or even Afghanistan. This is the reason why Putin has an interest in Syria and the mainstream media of course championed Obama claiming he was defending children. Then we have Genie Oil and strategic oil reserves within occupied Syria. Just look at the people who are are heavy hitters on the Strategic Advisory Board of Genie Oil!  Not bad for a company nobody has heard of and the glaring issue is why do you need heavy hitters like this just to pump oil? Location! Location! Location! The mainstream media is not going to report on this issue. They even have Rupert Murdoch on their Strategic Advisory Board. This is hush hush in the mainstream media.

Strategic Advisory Board

The Strategic Advisory Board of Genie Oil and Gas advises management on strategic, financial, operational and public policy matters.

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Michael Steinhardt (SAB Chairman)
Noted Wall Street investor and Principal Manager, Steinhardt Management LLC. Founder Steinhardt, Fine, Berkowitz & Co., and noted philanthropist.

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Richard (Dick) Cheney
46th Vice President of the United States. Vice President Cheney also served as President and CEO of Halliburton Company and U.S. Secretary of Defense from 1989 to 1993.

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Marry Landrieu
United States Senator from Louisiana from 1996 to 2014. Senator Landrieu served as chair of theSenate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. In her capacity as chair, she sponsored and passed the U.S.-Israel Energy Cooperation Bill. The bill fosters partnerships focused on developing resources such as natural gas and alternative fuels, on the academic, business and governmental levels.

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Rupert Murdoch
Founder and Executive Chairman of News Corporation, one of the world’s largest diversified media companies. News Corporation’s holdings include Fox Entertainment, Dow Jones and Company, the New York Post, HarperCollins and significant media assets on six continents.

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Bill Richardson
Governor of New Mexico from 2003 to 2011. Mr. Richardson has served asU.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (1997-1998), Energy Secretary in the Clinton administration (1998-2001), Chairman of the 2004 Democratic National Convention, and as Chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.

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Jacob Rothschild, OM, GBE
Chairman of the J. Rothschild group of companies and of RIT Capital Partners plc. Chairman of Five Arrows Limited. Lord Rothschild is a noted philanthropist and Chairman of the Rothschild Foundation.

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Dr. Lawrence Summers
Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard University. Dr. Summers served as the 71st Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton and as Director of the National Economic Council for President Obama.

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R. James Woolsey
Director of Central Intelligence from 1993 to 1995 and as Under Secretary of the Navy from 1977 to 1979. Mr. Woolsey is co-founder of the United States Energy Security Council and is Chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Saudi Arabia - risks begin to build in June, October, and then next March

Trouble in Saudi Arabia

Posted May 11, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Political instability is rising in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi king has fired his long time Secretary of Energy and the head of the central bank has been replaced. The royal family is now fighting to sustain power.

The fall in the price of oil is having a political impact within the power structure of Saudi Arabia. Eventually, the rise in the dollar on world markets will force the peg to fail. As that develops, we should pay attention for this type of event may lead to a very serious political situation that could change the structure of government. The risks begin to build in June, October, and then next March.

From Norway to India the year 2020 will mark the end of petrol or diesel vehicles.

sted May 5, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Part of the global warming/climate change deals, many people do not realize that in Europe there will be no more gasoline and diesel cars on the streets come 2020. From Norway to India the year 2020 will mark the end of petrol or diesel vehicles. This is part of the long-term bear market in energy. Germany wants to bring at least million electric vehicles on the roads. However, this energy policy presents a crisis. They never realized that to prevent cars from using oil based energy, they have to get ready for a 25%-30%increase in power consumption. Shutting down nuclear power plants means you are transferring one pollution source for another.  Meanwhile, Germany was to shut down all nuclear power by 2022. Nobody seems to have figured out the coordination of these two trends.

Oil inventories reached an 86 year high this year and will now begin to decline

Posted Apr 5, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Everything has a cycle. The difference between the Triple Crown and Villanova is actually substantial. In the case of the Triple Crown, nobody won it in 31 years. You work out the cyclical pattern on the event. In the case of Villanova, the team is the basis of the cycle. Therefore, each sports team will have a different cycle. Villanova simply lined up and its time was due. The methodology between the two were entirely different. The key is what are you trying to develop a cycle on? Sports are different from the Triple Crown since there is a winner each year.

The obvious critic will say then the Cubs should win every 31 years. That is pretty shallow statement and it reflects more of a lack of understanding of cycles. Chicago won the majority of its games in 1880. It declined into 1966 winning the least amount of games completing a 86 year cycle (10 * 8.6). Then Chicago rallied for 18 years (2 * 8.6) and then declined for 16 years. It rallied against for 8 years and then fell for 4 years. Since they still won more in 2012 than they did in 1966, they remain in a trending-higher consolidation pattern which will ultimately surprise everyone and score a miracle victory.

Every team has its own cyclical pattern just like markets and politics.

BTW: Oil inventories reached an 86 year high this year and will now begin to decline.

Crude – Equities – Euro

Posted on January 21, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

We will post a 35-minute video update to the World Economic forum (see “Helpful Video” thread) that will cover key markets.

We have warned that January looked like a correction all around. Wall Street rallied after a hesitant start on Thursday as oil prices led the way after surging with a big gain. ECB President Mario Draghi raised hopes of further stimulus, which has done nothing anyhow. This is becoming like a person who gets married for the fifth time expecting ever-lasting love — the ultimate triumph of hope over experience.

Nevertheless, our models on oil were reaching critical major support for the year. The oscillators (stochastic) were also at extreme lows. Our Global Market Watch warned of a Waterfall the week of January 11. This global model will be available on the Trader version of Socrates. The Investor version is gear to long-term investors and the Global Market Watch will appear for the monthly to yearly levels, limited to the region of the subscription.

This is beyond artificial intelligence — this is a full-blown machine learning model since it does everything on its own. Socrates is monitoring patterns of everything globally while differentiating the slightest divergences among markets. I personally believe that this model will ultimately prove to be the end of human analysis since it does what it would take an army of analysts to do, and even then someone would still have to merge at the top all the analyses from individual markets. That seems to be beyond human ability.

The Global Market Watch on the Dow picked the May high last year and the key low at 15370 on the monthly model, but the last month is DYNAMIC so that comment will change as the final period unfolds. Once complete it no longer changes. So as of last week, the monthly level warned of new lows under 15842.

The weekly level went into crash mode the last week of December. So again, this has done a pretty good job from a pattern recognition perspective.

So far, all 10 major S&P 500 sectors rallied with a 3.2% rise in energy stocks. All but two Dow components were higher as well. This is starting to show something we have been warning about which remains on the horizon. As CONFIDENCE shifts from government to the private sector, we should begin to witness an alignment where all private assets begin to rise against government.

The European Central Bank kept its main rates on hold as Mario Draghi said the central bank would “review and possibly reconsider” its monetary policy as early as March. Many analysts had not expected a rate cut before June. They still have not figured out that lowering rates to try to stimulate borrowing wipes out savers and reduces their ability to cope with the deflation. This is like some medieval doctor bleeding a patient who he is killing because he keeps taking more blood out until he revives.

Therefore, the crude was overdone short-term and would only confirm a temp low with a daily closing above $32.20. Oil prices bounced, rising up more than 5 percent (just shy of $30 a barrel) after U.S. crude stockpiles did not rise. This mixed with Draghi’s comments lifted U.S. and European stock markets. Nothing but ANTICIPATION.

The Draghi-led rally is touted for the bounce in global stocks that had been set in motion by a relentless drop in oil prices. This is linked to the crisis in emerging market debt, rather than cheering a decline in oil’s cost of production in the reverse process of the OPEC actions of the 1970s. Of course, fears of a China-led slowdown in global growth are real for they will not be building the infrastructure they have, and that will not help emerging markets in any event, regardless of the direction of oil. Our Global Market Watch simply is not impressed with the long-term viability of the euro.

Oil - yearly closing say above $42 (in general) before you could say a bull market

Reversals: Resistance & Buy Signals

Posted on January 22, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Hi Martin,

I have been a loyal reader since your early writings from prison and
greatly appreciate all you do for society and the “common man” at least
those willing to learn. Thank You.

We (a couple of loyal followers comparing your analysis) are a little
confused on your recent Jan 19th coverage on oil. You state: We follow the 2016 low support targets of $25 and $16.

You state in running what-if scenarios to try to forecast where the
Yearly Bullish Reversal (buy signal) will be generated from either low
of $25 or $16 it ends up with $40-$41.50 This seems like it would be a sell signal instead of a buy signal??????? since $40-$41.50 clearly becomes the major resistance moving forward. Could you please clarify because we do not understand?

Thank You for your time.

Sincerely,

RP

ANSWER: The Reversal System is always calculating the counter number to the move. In other words, the system will generate the Bullish Reversal from a low and that must be elected to signal at least a temporary low.

In this case, the current Yearly Bullish stands at $82. This break to new lows should bring in a lower number in the $49-$42 area. This would be interesting symmetry since the Yearly Bearish elected was $41.25.

That would be the major resistance. I have explained before that in 1998 the dollar/yen rallied to test the Yearly Bullish at $147. We were running out of time, so I sold against that number and then placed a stop just above. We did not get through that Yearly Bullish Reversal.

This would be no different. It is showing us that a reversal in trend would require a yearly closing say above $42 (in general) before you could say a bull market would emerge.

Oil - support $25, buy only after $42

Crude – What Lies Beneath $30 & Where Will Resistance Stand Here After

Posted on January 19, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Right now, the fear has been that Iran will start dumping oil now that the sanctions have been lifted. Thus, crude has been falling out of bed in a nightmare scenario. The fact that Crude was below $35 and then rallied to close above it for the 2015 year-end closing was a warning that the long-term may not be as bearish as it appears at first glance. Crude still elected a year-end sell signal at $41. So that meant lower lows. But our other two numbers were $35 and $25. Breaking $30 certainly focuses our attention on the $25 level as support on a system basis. Technically, the $25 area is also showing up as support during January.

Cyclically, this collapse in price has been on target since our timing projections have been January, March, and June here in early 2016. We have warned that 2016 was the target for at least the intraday low.

When we start to look at what the computer is projecting in time, indeed 2016 is a Directional Change. It appears choppy until about 2018. From there out into 2022 to 2023/2024, which will be the next top in the Economic Confidence Model, we see a sharp rise in volatility. This is lining up with two primary factors – WAR and a MONETARY CRISIS.

So for now, we should focus on the $24-$25 area as the next psychological support zone. Our two key areas of target support for 2016 are $25 and $16. Looking forward, we employed our WHAT IF models to try to forecast where the Yearly Bullish Reversal (buy signal) will be generated from a low at either position in 2016. Interesting enough, in both scenarios, we end up with $40-$41.50. This will clearly become the major resistance moving forward. It does not appear that crude will ever make new intraday highs. It must fight against a dollar rally which appears to be still on the horizon and a shift to electric cars.

Crude - slingshot vs. the Phase Transition

Crude Bullish or Bearish?

Posted on January 9, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

We had THREE Yearly Bearish Reversals in crude: the first was $41, the next $35 and $32, but then
there was also $25. We achieved the first one but not $35. This warns of lower lows here in 2016, but it does not imply $12. Typically, when you trade BELOW a Yearly Bearish like $35 and rally to close above it, it is NOT a buy signal since you are still electing the $41. However, it does warn that a complete collapse is not likely.

This is most likely reflecting what is coming after 2017. This, in part, is also intermingled with the slingshot vs. the Phase Transition. The former would EXTEND the cycle and suggest that 2017-2020 would be the chaotic period; a Phase Transition would imply a conclusion by 2017. That is the difference. Neither one is yet confirmed as we have been stating. Therefore, it is curious that this seems to be lining up with crude.

We have technical support during 2016 in crude at the $30.75 level. Our model shows resistance at $40 and support at $25. Therefore, it does not appear that we would see crude collapse to the $10-$15 level that some have been calling for. This is most likely why crude rallied to close above the $35 number. It merely avoided a devastating sell signal where at least $25 would have been guaranteed.

Year end prices -oil, gold, euro

CLARIFICATION

Posted on December 24, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

First of all. someone is claiming I put out some recommendation on DUST. I have NEVER recommended such an ETF and this appears to be a deliberate attempt to mislead people. You can search this blog, but I have never made any recommendation involving any specific ETF. The motive behind this scam is curious to say the least.

Secondly, a closing ABOVE $35.15 for year end in oil will signal that we may not see oil collapse and that it is entirely possible that the cycle of war will kick-in going into 2017.

Additionally, a closing for gold on the nearest futures ABOVE 1044.50 will also warn that it may not be as weak at first glance given it did bottom on the first Benchmark.

A simple year-end closing below 116.40 in the Euro for year-end confirms a broader correction is in motion with the earliest potential low in 2018 with the potential to extend into 2021.

There is some very interesting posturing going on in the world markets at this time. We cannot rule out that the entire trend BEGINS to go nuts in 2017 rather than concludes at that time frame. This we are looking at more treading water moving sideways into 2017 and then everything goes nuts with major political changes, then we are looking at a much more disruptive pattern that will blow the roofs of all the temples of politics. That means we simply go nuts starting in 2017 and extending into 2021.

The closing of 2015 in so many markets will set the tone for what is about to unfold. Either way, we are looking at a major change in trend for government is losing control of the economy.