Putin & Ukrainian Propaganda

 

Posted May 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The rumors keep flying that Putin has cancer and has a maximum of three years to live. The stories are claiming he is ‘losing his eyesight’ but all of this is unconfirmed coming reports in recent weeks have suggested the 69-year-old president’s health has been deteriorating quickly. Much of this propaganda from Ukraine has been talking about a coup and all sorts of stuff.

Our model does not show that Putin will run again in 2024. That year will be monumental for the US presidential election is then as well and even Zelensky, the WEF’s puppet, will stand for election. Why people are putting out this propaganda that somehow if Putin dies, Russia can be vanquished is total nonsense. The second tier behind Putin are far more nationalistic and will definitely use nuclear weapons whereas Putin is at least far more rational.

 

Putin did NOT invade Ukraine to conquer it.  Even when the US attacked Iraq, the first thing you do is take out the power, communications, and then the water supply. Putin has done none of that has is doing what he said, defending the Russians in the Donbas. Crimea was always Russian and it was allocated to Kyiv (Russian: Kiev) by Khruschev in 1954 because (1) he grew up in the Donbas, and (2) he was in charge of Ukraine post-World War II and rebuilt it. It was his home.

 

The Eastern region of Ukraine was historically always Russian. Ukraine was created by the USSR – it did not exist as a country before. This idea put out by the Ukrainians that keep trying to paint Putin as dead or just put down a coup is all propaganda. Yes, he is sick. But this nonsense that somehow replaces Putin and Ukraine wins is tempting far worse a fate than anyone can imagine. The next level will be far worse and our model turns up sharply with civil unrest and war in 2023, but the worse is yet to come post-2024.

Soros Promoting World War III – Let’s Go!

 

Posted May 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

 

The pieces are starting to come together in this grand plot to fulfill George Soros’ dream – One World Government. After Soros’ speech at Davos, there are a lot of people of all faiths flocking to a Catholic Church to light a candle and pray for the rapid death of this cantankerous ‘old codger’ who seems to want to take the world into World War III and perhaps like some Egyptian Pharoh, take as many people with him into the here-after. I wish I could say that Soros is just crazy. But I do not believe that is the case. He has harbored a dream of a One-World Government forever perhaps growing up in communism.

His theme is that “climate change is on the verge of becoming irreversible” and that we MUST defeat Putin is all supporting his One-World government with the United Nations at the head. History will remember Soros up there with Marx responsible for the deaths of up to 50% of the world’s population by 2040. He is spinning his propaganda that Putin and Xi must be removed from power and somehow the people will cheer and run into the arms of the United Nations where they can fall at the feet of George Soros and kiss his disgusting toes at this age.

Everything that Soros and the World Economic Forum have been doing is nothing but promoting war. Henry Kissinger said that Ukraine should surrender the Donbas to Russia. Indeed, that was the Minsk Agreement. Zelensky has refused to do so and would instead subject his citizens to endless war for territory full of Russian Ukrainians which they hate with a passion.

Zelensky won the election promising to (1) end corruption, and (2) end the civil war. His solution for the corrupt was just to take everything for himself. The amount of money he has stashed in offshore accounts is said to be at least $100 million and some report he is approaching $1 billion.

As for the war, he has refused to surrender the two provinces as the Minsk Agreement stated in 2014. He denies them the right to vote for their own future. The West refuses to acknowledge the vote of Crimes when in fact they are ethnic Russians and are hated by the Ukrainians. I can confirm that from the outset I head Crimea is Ukrainian or Crimea will be depopulated.

I have been sent videos taken from Ukrainian soldiers showing the torture they are submitting to Russians. I have refrained from posting them because they are so horrible. There are Russians being nailed to a cross and then set on fire alive. There are two soldiers who volunteered. One from Canada and one from France. Both have returned disguised telling about the war crimes they have watched the Ukrainians carrying out. Nobody wants to even admit that there are Ukrainian neo-Nazis.

Nobody wants to report the truth that Zelensky has even seized religion. The orthodox church no longer acknowledges the Patriarch of Moscow. This is a war of absolute hatred. The sheer level of war crimes unreported is off the charts. This is all being sanctioned to create World War III to ensure that the Russians look at the West with the same hatred that the West looks upon Russians to ensure World War III.

 

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This conspiracy is more than most suspect. It has been Bill Browder who was advised on confiscating all the assets of private Russia Oligarchs to destroy the world economy. Putin was NOT friends with all the Oligarchs. Yeltsin turned to Putin because he was the only independent person. He was not part of the Berezovsky group of the Seven Oligarchs and he was not part of the hardline Communists. Both those groups were against Yeltsin. Putin was selected to go against the Oligarchs. It was 1886 when Berezovsky created the “Davos Pact” of Oligarchs to fund Yeltsin’s campaign. It was also 1996 when Browder and Edmond Safra created Hermitage Capital Management to invest in Russia. Browder appeared with Soros I believe just last week in Berlin. Browder has been protected by the Democrats at every level.

Henry Kissinger spoke correctly at Davos and said Zelensky should surrender the Russian regions to Russia. Zelensky is told not to do so otherwise there is no confrontation for World War III. If Zelensky were truly concerned about his own people, then why fight for territory that was always occupied by Russians? It makes no sense except to sacrifice is own people to promote World War III to accomplish this agenda.

Interest Rates & The Chaos Ahead- 2023

 

Posted May 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, Your forecast for the Panic Cycle here in Australian politics was correct and it beat all the polls as you did in BREXIT. Our new leader is a full-on board with the WEF climate agenda and will have all cars electric by 2030. As you say, in war you take out the power grid first. I guess this makes the power grid even more of a first-strike target.

I want to thank you for Socrates. It is great to have something that provides a non-emotional forecast. The forecasts you publish on so many things around the world are amazing and accurate.

So my question is this. You were correct that rates would rise, or Socrates was, and you said that there would be shortages with a commodity cycle mixed with war rising and civil unrest. So now that the central banks are in a state of panic, what do you expect with the panic cycle in 2023 in the Fed?

ANSWER: You are correct. Too many people attribute everything to just me as if I have a crystal ball. The forecasts are from the model. Nobody could be forecasting so many things for 40 years on a gut feeling and be correct. The odds of humanity are against that.

People tend to forecast what they want to happen. It is just an inherent human flaw. But it is also what drives markets. The majority of people are influenced by the direction of the trend. So a rising market makes people feel bullish and a declining market makes people more pessimistic. That is just a fact of life. So the ONLY hope for an accurate forecast MUST come from a non-emotional source. Staring into 2023 just looks like total chaos.

 

I do get the occasional email asking me how I cope with my own forecasts. I look at it this way. If I said here comes my fist, I’m going to punch you in the face. Do you just stand there and smile or do you dodge the punch, or defend against it? Isn’t it better to know something is coming to prepare?

It is more like an out-of-body experience for me personally because these forecasts are the computer and I have to stand here and watch as well as live through them. It is a different experience to forecast these events years in advance and live through them myself.

I am concerned that when you look around the globe, so many things have serious targets and panic cycles in 2023. Even in the war cycle, the computer has the highest aggregate bar for 2023. The central banks are unable to prevent inflation because this is a shortage crisis, not a speculative boom where raising interest rates will reduce the buying.

While the Central Bankers think this is clear sailing, they have entered uncharted waters. The risks of the markets discovering they cannot control the economy anymore will raise the crisis to extreme levels as we head into 2023.

Population & Social Security – Civil Unrest. 509% reduction in the population by 2040 in USA

 

Posted May 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Dear Martin and AE Team,
Thank you for everything you do and have done for us, the little people.
My question is this. As you/Socrates have predicted the fall of governments on a global scale, along with the collapse in confidence, of which I am the poster child for, I was a lifelong Democrat, but no longer, I have completely lost all confidence in our government. My concern is what do you or Socrates think is going to happen to Social Security. I will be turning 62 very soon and think that given everything that is going on, I should take what I can get NOW, because it doesn’t look like Social Security will be around after 2033. Does Socrates have any predictions on this. I would think there are a lot of other AE subscribers in the same predicament. Any opinion (not advice) on this would be gratefully appreciated.

Thank you very much,

TH

ANSWER #1: It is a difficult question. Inflation will erode what you get anyhow. But there will come a point in time when the whole thing goes belly-up. It was January 1935, when President Roosevelt sent his “Economic Security Bill” to Capitol Hill. On August 14th, 1935 (1935.619) President Roosevelt signed the bill into law at a ceremony in the White House Cabinet Room. The likelihood of SS coming to a complete end will be 2029.6. Just keep in mind that they will pay only what is owed and they will not take into account real inflation. Just ask those who were promised pensions from Venezuela. When they were finally paid, what would have covered a month’s living expenses would buy a cup of coffee.

The problem that we have with Social Security is that the entire system is a Ponzi Scheme. It needs population growth to keep paying taxes to pay for the previous generation. As you know, I was called in to reform Social Security and turn it into a wealth fund that actually invested back in the Nineties. The Democrats would not vote for it claiming it was more secure investing in government binds exclusively, and if it was privatized they wanted to change the fund managers when they go back in power. The whole thing was a joke.

QUESTION #2: Mr. Armstrong, it is becoming obvious that _______ no longer publish your forecasts because they are like the Biden Administration and will only publish people taking your work as long as they claim gold will rise to $40,000. If I remember correctly, you said the postwar period of the baby boom was the peak in population growth and that a decline into 2028 would unfold but the low would be after 2032? How low is low?

Concerned Reader

KE

ANSWER: Those who are always desperate to claim everything will go down except for gold are spouting out their personal bias which prevents them from looking at the real trend. The eventual low in population may not arrive until 2040. As far as how low is low, that should be about a 50% reduction up there with the Black Plague.

We have war, but on top of that, we have climate change that is heading to colder – not warmer periods. That is when crops fail and that results in malnutrition and this disease rises. These mandatory COVID vaccines are probably the catalyst for a sharp rise in disease. Viruses mutate. That is their function in this world. The more you vaccinate unnecessarily, the more mutations will emerge from the viruses to survive. That means they will get worse there y defeating the vaccines. Those who were NOT vaccinated will stand a far better shot at surviving.

Just look at the antibiotics. The overuse of these drugs has led to superbugs evolving that are not incurable. The CDC has even stated that the overuse of antibiotics has led to superbugs. Interestingly, even the World Economic Forum (WEF) report published in 2014 warned that ‘The world will run out of effective antibiotics.” The WEF stated the link between the overuse of antibiotics was causing antibiotic resistance and superbugs in hospitals. This has increased the death rates of many people. They concluded that antibiotic-resistant bacteria posed the greatest risk to human health. Others have noted that bacteria are growing stronger and acquiring resistance to multiple drugs. (Spellberg, Bartlett, & Gilbert, 2013).

To me, it is hard to imagine that this demand for 100% vaccinations for COVID is a risk to humanity for the COVID-19 virus will mutate to defeat all possible vaccines as what is already taking place with antibiotics.

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The more volcanoes that are erupting (3 now in Alaska), the greater the chance of volcanic winter. If that unfolds on top of this food shortage created by the COVID Lockdowns and the crazy Climate Change people who want to terminate all fossil fuels right now, we are looking at a lethal combination of events that can certainly lead to a 509% reduction in the population by 2040.

There are plenty of people who are taking our forecasts and pretending they have derived this all on their own. Sorry. This comes from a computer that has been putting that forecast out for the last 20 years by correlating everything. You cannot simply look at war and claim that is your source. This is a combination of events – it is never a single cause and effect.

QUESTION #3: Marty, there were a number of major financial institutions there in Orlando and two central bankers I overheard in a conversation. They were all focused on not your international war cycle, but your cycle of civil unrest. I think the punch line was that was much more serious. Do you have any updates on that here midterm?

Thanks really for you and your team. They are standing by society in a time we need it. My hat is off to your entire staff.

HB

ANSWER #3: Yes, Civil Unrest is actually far more dangerous than international war. As I have warned many times, the Civil Unrest is what leads to revolutions. The International War lead to a reduction in population, and they can lead to civil unrest as was the case in Germany following WWI when they overthrew the monarchy. World civil unrest turned up sharply with the ECM turning point of 2020.05.

That said, the #1 question I do get right now from our global banking clients, investment firms, and international hedge funds has been about the civil unrest forecasts. They saw the uprising in Pakistan because of rising inflation. The polls here show that inflation is the #1 concern. There are more people concerned about the Johnny Depp trial than Roe v Wade. Even Walt Disney has suffered a major collapse in their trust following their attack on DeSantis. Sorry, but most parents do not want third graders being told they might be gay. This entire WOKE movement has undermined the confidence in corporations and government.

Our institutional clients are bracing themselves for a surge in civil unrest in the US, but especially in Europe including Great Britain. This entire insanity of trying to shut down fossil fuels BEFORE you have a viable alternative is not just sending energy prices to the Moon, but food prices are exploding and shortages are expanding. This is a combination that is behind our computer forecasts on the Civil Unrest models we have published for the last 40 years.

Our models on Civil Unrest go back to 600BC which is significantly different than the international war which goes back to 6000BC starting with recorded history covering Europe and Asia.

And BTW, this is not a one-man-band. Our staff is around the world. We have Staff in China, Europe, Middles East, and SE Asia. They deserve the recognition. They are committed to what we do try to provide answers and forecasts for the largest international audience of anyone.

The Coming LIQUIDITY Crisis -decline in supply because of the regulations and war. Consequently, prices will rise even in a recession because it is a shortage of supply, not a decline in demand.

 

Posted May 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Marty, You were named hedge fund manager of the year in 1998 for producing the highest return during the Long Term Capital Management collapse over the Russian bond crisis. At the WEC in Orlando, you said in 2019 that we were facing a liquidity crisis that would be similar to that event. Well, the Federal Reserve has now warned of deteriorating liquidity conditions across key financial markets amid rising risks from the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening, and high inflation in their semi-annual report. It appears that the forecast of a liquidity crisis distinguishing this crisis from 2007 to 2009 is unfolding. Would you elaborate on this current crisis headed into 2023?

JF

PS, a short interim virtual WEC may be warranted. Just mentioning. People take what you say, call it their own, and pretend you never existed.

ANSWER: What distinguished that ’98 Liquidity Crisis was that the “Club” of bankers and hedge fund guys were all on the same trade as they always did. The capital flows began to sift in 1994 as SE Asia peaked. The bear market that unfolded went largely unnoticed until the Asian Currency Crisis where the “club” then attacked the currency pegs. But the capital had begun to move back in anticipation of the coming Euro.

The 99.9% of fund managers lost their shirts on that capital shift because they were too busy bribing politicians and people in the IMF to look at the markets. They completely misjudged the world economy thinking like Marx and Keynes that they could control it. The shift in capital and attacking the SE Asian currencies led to the idea that all emerging markets were risky. With the Euro coming, the herd of little investors shifts their capital away from the funds heavily trading emerging markets. They were not “traders” but people who were engaged in trying to rig the game.

What they failed to understand was that the world economy is a financial sea of capital. When there is a high tide and capital is flowing in, they expect it will never end. The tide changes and you then move to low tide and the capital retreats outward. This was the first part of the liquidity crisis that would look at Russia as they did SE Asia emerging markets.

Consequently, when it is low tide, capital is retreating on a global level and that is when the liquidity crisis emerges. Thus, were the serious investors and pension funds behind to lose money in SE Asia, and they began unloading emerging markets elsewhere as well. Because all the hedge funds and bankers who try to rig the markets because they are not traders because they were all on the same trade of Russian debt when they tried to sell, there was NO BID. They began selling every position elsewhere which included the Japanese yen. It was a LIQUIDITY CRISIS so they needed to raise money to cover their losses and if Russian bonds were unsalable, all they could do was sell everything else. Thus, a LIQUIDITY crisis defies fundamentals because they are selling this ONLY because they need the money elsewhere. So the fundamental analysis provides no security for everything is connected in the global see of capital.

Edmon Safra of Republic National Bank put on a fancy dinner for the IMF. I was invited and it was all about trying to convince me that they had the IMF in their pocket and that would rescue the day. The pitch was Russia had all these nukes so no way would the IMF allow Russia to just collapse. This created a serious yet difficult situation for the Russian government. What was going on was that Russia had been running a huge budget deficit to pay for public services. They had borrowed $40 billion by issuing three-month ruble Treasury bills. This is what the “club” was bought for they were paying 30% interest to attract buyers. Bribing the IMF to prevent a default, they were all on this trade expecting free money. I refused to join and warned them that my computer projected this was going to collapse. They did not want to hear that. They were CONVINCED paying bribes would create that GUARANTEED TRADE.

The liquidity crisis this time is COMPLICATED. This time we do not have the traditional speculative boom which has produced inflation. This time we have shortages and there is NO WAY a central bank can prevent this type of inflation by raising interest rates. If anything, it will only propel the shortages so we have the ironic situation that economic decline is unfolding into 2023, but the shortages will get worse causing even higher inflation ahead.

Hence, capital is retreating out of confusion creating a period of low tide. But the standard impact is DEFLATION but that means demand is declining relative to supply. Now we have a decline in supply because of the regulations and war. Consequently, prices will rise even in a recession because it is a shortage of supply, not a decline in demand. It is this lack of understanding that is creating the liquidity crisis.

As far as people taking my explanations, it is impossible to reach such conclusions unless you lived there and participated in those events.