Inflation to Rise into 2034?

 

Posted Oct 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation continued to surge, reaching 5.4% in September. Janet Yellen has never been right about anything and keeps calling this “transitory,” as if it will vanish in a few weeks. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, which is supposed to measure a basket of goods and services as well as energy and food costs, came in at 5.4% in September from a year earlier, well beyond expectations. However, our model was projecting a rise in inflation into 2021 which is 13 years up from the November 2008 low. It is interesting how the COVID restrictions with lockdowns came in on target with our computer’s forecast. Curious how events seem to fulfill the forecast when it is done by a computer rather than human judgment.

Nevertheless, as you can see from the chart, inflation has bounced on a month/month basis, but it has not yet reached the Downtrend Line. The long-term forecast beyond a mere decade projects the historical high will be due in 2034, which should exceed all previous highs. A month/month number above 1.05% will signal that inflation is breaking out, and we will indeed make all-time record highs going into 2034.

Is World War III on the Horizon?

Posted Jan 6, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:  Martin, I have been following your blog for several months and have begun to start reading older posts because it is all amazing work. When looking at your war cycle with Russia that started in 2014 and supposedly cycles roughly 25 years, I noticed that correlates nicely with your ECM on Russia peaking around 2039. Coincidence? Is it becoming pretty clear World War 3 between east and west seems just over the horizon past 2032?
Thanks,
CC

ANSWER: Socialism is dying and in the process we are witnessing the rise in even domestic violence. In the United States, this hatred of Trump inspired by the Democrats has unleashed the destruction of the United States as we have known it. The United States will most likely cease to exist after 2034 and the same result will impact Russia by 2038. The crisis we face is that governments have made so many worthless promises that cannot be funded. When that takes place historically, the political states collapse internally. However, before that happens, they will turn to international war as a means to retain power and distract the people from the real economic crisis which is befalling civilization.

Movable and Tangible assets rise- Cycle inversion ?

This is the REAL trend. After 2015.75, we will see capital still confused. The flight to quality will initially be to short-term paper of the USA, but that will give way as well. However, we have more than $25 trillion globally in bonds (short/long) and that is a huge reservoir of capital to shift. This idea that government debt is “quality” will give way to reality.  That means we will see tangible assets rise precisely as we see during a hyperinflation within a peripheral economy.

The daunting question is formulating when the cycle will flip from Public to Private. The major low intra-day is 2009. However, the lowest annual closing is 2002. Under most conditions, a 7 year rally would have produced a high in 2009, but that was overpowered by the ECM and the business cycle inverting that into a LOW. This is suggesting that we are in the inversion process.

A 26 year target from 2002 brings us to 2028. That is the next low on the 8.6 year wave. The Pi target will be 31.4 years  from 2002.85 giving us 2034.25 after the 2032 peak. As you can see, we are starting to line up with the lows in the ECM. This is part of the inversion process. Gold rallied AFTER 2007.15 and peaked with the low in the ECM 2011. Its rallies are lining up with the lows.

It is sad to say, but this process was unfolding going into the Fall of Rome. Here we have a picture of 1929. This was the culmination of a Private Wave in which we are in right now. The 1929 target was the equivalent of 2032. Note that at the end, equity did better than bonds.

We are entering this phase. The bulk of analysts keep saying the stock market will crash and burn. The gold bugs say buy gold. The conspiracy people see some new currency emerging like bit coin that is even less familiar to people than gold. Yet none seem to grasp that if we are headed into the worse part of this economic storm, how is some new currency going to emerge? Sorry, it is back to old-school. Getting off the grid with a diversification between movable and tangible assets.

That means capital will flow to the dollar since the USA cannot be easily invaded as can even Japan and Europe when politicians seek to find external enemies. This will most likely be the last and final 3rd rally due to war that sends the dollar to record highs. This implies tangible fixed assets have a chance of surviving in the USA requiring less of a mix for movable compared to Asia and Europe.