The decline in the dollar which created the perception that German cars would so well built, they would appreciate

Will Inflation Return to the Eurozone?

Posted Aug 18, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

There are three distinct types of inflation – Demand, Asset & Currency. The major type of inflation that everyone assumes is DEMAND. This unfolds when there is actually an economic boom and people have confidence in the economy. Asset Inflation is when there is no real demand from the consumer but the asset values rise primarily from foreign investment. This is normally witnessed in real estate, stocks, and bonds. There is a subdivision of Asset Inflation that is concentrated to a single area such a food that is driven by a collapse in supply due to perhaps a drought or flooding. The third type is Currency Inflation. This is when the actual nominal value of assets do not change, but the currency fluctuation will attract or detract foreign investors because of the large fluctuation in the value of the currency on world markets.

During the 1970s, I always bought German cars. A Porsche in 1970 was about $12,000 and by 1980 it was $50,000. The rise was really created by the decline in the dollar which created the perception that German cars would so well built, they would appreciate. I would drive one for 2-years and sell it used for a profit. This was the net result of CURRENCY INFLATION. As the Euro declines, we will see inflation in the Eurozone rise sharply. The ECB will proclaim victory after 10 years, but this has nothing to do with Quantitative Easing

The Crisis is Turkey

Posted Aug 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey is finding his dreams of an all-powerful resurrection of the Ottoman Empire are falling apart. Qatar has come to the aid of Turkey offering $15 billion in a loan, but keep in mind that the entire issue with Syria began with Qatar proposing a pipeline through Syria to compete with natural gas with Russia. Therefore, it is in Qatar’s best interest to keep Turkey trying to invade Syria. The price will be the pipeline, which we seriously doubt will ever take place.

Erdogan has sent the Turkish economy into a downward spiral for some time. Its soaring inflation has exceeded 100% and rising debt-to-GDP of about 70% under President Recep Erdogan’s regime has been a growing problem. As central banks pumped money into the system over the past decade, nations like Turkey and other emerging market economies used the opportunity to raise more and more “cheap” debt to boost their productivity. Turkey has attracted capital from Europe seeking higher yields because of the negative interest rates policy of the ECB. Now we have a crisis in Turkey that is also the result of Draghi’s Quantitative Easing that drove capital to Turkey and FAILED to revived the European economy.

Erdogan’s dream of restoring the Ottoman Empire is no joke. It has been European money seeking higher yield that kept him in power. It is curious how those who seek dictatorial power are the ones who dream of restoring the power of empires long since dead. Erdogan has wanted to recreate the Ottoman Empire just as the dream of the reestablishment of the old Roman Empire as was the desire behind Napoleon and Hitler. The days of Empire Building are long gone and Erdogan has been living in the past. His goal was to expand his country’s military operations in Syria and this, he hoped, would be the first step as with Hitler’s invasion of Poland. However, the lira collapse and the expensive dollar are conspiring against him. On the one hand, Erdogan is attracted to dealing with Russia who is on the opposite side of the game board with Qatar. Erdogan has the free markets moving against him and he is more likely to turn to Russia than the West to retain personal power. Nevertheless, he turned to Qatar because he was desperate for money to retain personal power. If he loses the support of his military, then they will side with the people and Erdogan’s head may end up on a spike. Yet, the financial markets are working against Erdogan and as the crisis continues, Turkey can hardly afford military adventures.

Many rushed into Turkey and bought their bonds at 20%. Many Spanish banks had capital was invested in Turkish bonds to get the higher yield to the tune of on average 20%+. Based upon the phone calls, there are way too many institutions who invested into Turkey. They simply assumed that NO government defaults because the powers that be will always bail out the bondholders. This time the IMF is really powerless. They can make some noise and others will say the crisis is subsiding. However, this is just talking. There is nobody who can save Turkey at this point as long as Erdogan remains in power. Qatar will discover that Turkey is a bottomless pit. They will try to now ease the crisis with words because of the extensive foolishness of banks and pension funds who bought Turkey bonds to try to get yield.

The fall in the Turkish lira has also benefited the Syrian Army, which launched an offensive on the last large mercenary fortress in Idlib. Turkey was actually against the offensive because it feared that it would fall to Syria and that is against Erdogan’s dreams of taking more territory. What is not really looked at internationally is the plain fact that Turkey does not have its own arms industry. Erdogan needs arms to be imported and as the lira crisis materialized, his Turkish operation Olive branch and shield of the Euphrates in Syria become rapidly too expensive. Back in January 2018, the Siyasi Haber newspaper reported that an estimated $400 million was being spent on Operation Olive Branch alone. Erdogan has spent over $1 billion so far in his attempt to conquer that region of Syria.

Instead of building his economy and benefiting the people of Turkey, Erdogan has been more interested in resurrecting the Ottoman Empire. It has been his mismanagement of the economy and his hostile attitude even to Greece that is behind the Turkish Lira Crisis. August has been our target for the crisis and so far the computer has been correct on that score. However, volatility will remain high going into October and then we see it will return as the new year begins. Qatar coming to the rescue should help support the lira for now. Those who are wise had better sell their Turkish bonds and step off of this trade. August should prove to be only a temporary low for the lira.

First to crack would be emerging markets and Turkey, 2nd Europe, 3rd Japan, last US

This is No Joke – Monetary Reform Will Be Forced Upon the World

Posted Aug 15, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I really understand why the government wanted your model so bad. You have been the only one to correctly forecast the entire world. The emerging markets are cracking and the euro is falling apart. What is next in your timetable?

ANSWER: We have been warning that the first to crack would be emerging markets and Turkey was the focal point. We are also beginning to witness the debt crisis in China due to loans in dollars as well. Many of these companies simply lacked the sophistication to understand currency risk or hedging strategies. The second in line would be Europe and the Euro is really in danger of bringing the entire world economy down. The third in line will be Japan, and then finally the crisis will hit the USA. We are just living in an era where people have believed the nonsense for far too long. Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand cannot be defeated.

This is SERIOUS. People have to understand that this is NOT my personal belief, opinion, or anything else based upon some predetermined conclusion. People attack me personally because they cannot defend a system that NOBODY in their right mind would have created from scratch. Our system is a patchwork of band-aids that are applied to each crisis and then never removed. Collectively, that have combined to create a complete nightmare. This has become such a mess, there is NOT a single person I know in government capable to even correcting this mess. The truth ALWAYS is exposed.

I am only one person. I do not have the support to manage a global crisis or step in to help every country. This will take a lot more than just me. The countries who want help are generally the peripheral not the majors for this is too political.

Is It Time for Judicial Reform?

Posted Aug 13, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Trump really needs to clean house when it comes to the judicial system. It is just totally out of control and they have long held themselves above the law. The outright deny human rights in American, civil rights, and ignore the Constitution when it suits them. Trump needs to do what they are doing in West Virginia when the entire Supreme Court is being impeached. One judge has been indicted and is standing trial in October. Corruption is just off the charts. In this case, it is a Federal Prosecutor charging a state judge. We REALLY need desperately an independent commission to which complaints can be filed about federal judges and judicial officers. The corruption and bribes are destroying the rule of law.

In my own case, I discovered that the judge was changed all the transcripts. I confronted him in open court and he did not deny “editing” the transcripts, but he claimed he did not recall changing anything “material” and at that moment under the law, he became a witness in my own case but refused to recuse himself. Legally, I should have been allowed to call him to the stand under oath and interrogate him as the materiality of all the changes I specified. There was $400 million stolen from the company authorized by the court. I have never been able to even put this to a trial. Whenever I filed an appeal, they lost it. The 2nd Circuit NEVER would allow me to exercise my Due Process Right under the Constitution to be heard on this issue.

The 2nd Circuit actually ordered the Southern District of New York judges to “revise” the practice of changing the transcripts in:

UNITED STATES v. ZICHETTELLO

208 F3d 72 (2d Cir 2000)

The judges NEVER did. You have no idea that the words you say even under oath will be recorded. They do not allow audio recordings in court because they would get caught changing the transcripts. To my shock, this case appears to have been removed from FindLaw and many other sites and appears to be yet a cover-up that is ongoing. Here is what the court of appeals wrote:

The Southern District of New York follows a practice that is unusual and perhaps unique. ….

5) SDNY Practice

The problem in the instant case has led lawyers on both sides to highlight a problematic practice in the Southern District of New York and has prompted one of them to ask this court to order that the practice be eliminated. See Leiwant Decl. at 2. According to lawyers for both the government and defense, as well as Bologna, the “standard practice” in the Southern District is for a court reporter to submit the transcript of jury instructions to the district court before releasing it to the parties. See id.; Pomerantz Affirm. ¶ 11; Bologna 4/99499 Aff. ¶ 3. The district court is free to alter the transcript, and any changes are incorporated in the “official” transcript without disclosing such changes to the parties. See Bologna 4/99499 Aff. ¶ 3. According to counsel, the Southern District is somewhat unique in this practice. See Leiwant Decl. at 2.

Courts do not have power to alter transcripts in camera and to conceal the alterations from the parties.11 Given the issues that arose in this case as a direct result of this practice, there appears to be little justification for continuing the practice in its present form. To be sure, a procedure that corrects obvious mistakes in transmission is useful, and the parties have little interest in closely monitoring such a procedure so long as the alterations are cosmetic. Monitoring by the parties, however, provides some assurance that only cosmetic changes will be made or, if not, that changes will correctly reflect what transpired in the particular proceeding. Moreover, there is little cost in informing the parties of cosmetic changes or at least of directing court reporters to give parties access to the original transcript when they request it.

Nevertheless, whether we have the power to order a change in such a practice is unclear.12 We review judgments, and our review of the convictions and sentences here may not be an appropriate vehicle for the fine tuning of this practice. However, we invite the judges of the Southern District to consider revision.

(1) US Zichettello (2) OpenJurist

You are supposed to have a right to a PUBLIC TRIAL. In my case, the judge threw the press out and closed the court when he took all the lawyers away. Again the Transcript was altered, but the court reported omitted the fact that the judge threw everyone out and simply never recorded those events. The transcript omitted the beginning even the standard phase “(In open court)”. Of course, I tried to appeal and once again the 2nd circuit REFUSED to ever docket that appeal. The level of corruption is just off the charts I suppose when $400 is being stolen.

The reporter from the Associated Press, Noelle Knox, even had the guts to walk right up to the bench and object to the press being thrown out. He had her escorted out of the courtroom. In her account, she even published “In a closed hearing” yet there was NO WAY to appeal when the 2nd Circuit would never docket appeals whenever I sought to challenge the court.

I am by no means UNIQUE. This is a standard practice going on in the Judicial System. If Trump wants to “drain the swamp” he has to start with the Judicial System

Russia & Its Development

Posted Aug 10, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Dear Mr. Armstrong,

With all respect to you and enlightenment you share with us, I would like to share some with you on Russ tribe, its origin, and its connection to Ukraine vs Russia. This topic is essential for it explains the legacy of Russ tribe and who can have a claim about it.

The gist here is that original Russ tribe was definitely of Germanic origin, being indigenous to Crimea and the Black Sea and Azov Sea Steppes. Yes, they were “locals” – in effect a part of Crimean Goths (called “Rosomonorum Gens Infida”). They were a syncretic culture combining Germanic and Alanic features. Their polity splits away from Goths and Crimea in the last quarter of 8th century. The split stems from the revolt of John the Goth and political and religious controversies in Gothic society. After the split, Russ tribe headed North into the lands of their tributaries, Slavs.

Sure, this period conveniently coincides with the beginning of Vikings’ Great Time, and those who forged our history used this pretext to make up “Calling for Normans Theory”. Beneficiaries to this Theory were a few Ugly Ones. The first and foremost, Catherine the Prussian, whose Prussian “historians” forged the Theory as an excuse for Prussian takeover of Russia. The second Big One is Greek Orthodox Church, who from the 11th century tried to cover the fact that Russ tribe was baptized long ago in its Crimean Time, but Christianity of the tribe initially was of Arian rite, not of “orthodox” Greek-style (due to this very reason churches in Kiev were re-consecrated in the 11th century when Greeks finally crushed Rus’ original Christianity). Note that “obsession” of the first khagans of so-called “Kiev Rus” about Crimea and Khozaria can be explained not with the thirst of “wild Varangians” for raids, blood, and gold, but with their claim to Crimean and Khozarian Christian dioceses, which they wanted to make their “Arian Domain”.

Another beneficiary to Normans Theory is Germanic “scientific” oecumene happy to believe without any valid proof that Sweden raiders could conquer half of Europe as easily as Danes and Norwegians could do with Northern part of the Continent…

For what it’s worth when in your Cycle of War Report you said that 2018 will be crucial for Ukraine, as was the year of  1709, I tested cycle of 309.6 years further on against our history. Amazingly, I spotted the points of really great importance for the development of consequent events, and bumped into the year of 781!!! The year of possible political split and exodus of Russ tribe from Crimea.

Thus, the origin of Russ tribe is rather associated with the South, not with the North, as they used to fool the people for centuries.

With deep respect and kind regards,

From Russia

REPLY: I fully agree. The claim that the Rus were Vikings has debatable support in history and it was used for political purposes. According to the Primary Chronicle, it was the Vikings who invaded in the later 9th century who invited by the Slavs. To be fair, Oleg of Novgorod was a Varangian prince who was argued that he ruled all or part of the Rus’ people during the late 9th and early 10th centuries. He was supposed to be the supreme ruler of the Rus’ from 882 to 912. However, the dating remains a controversy because it is inconsistent with other sources that mention other people ruling the Rus’ as late as the 940s. Even the relationship of Oleg with the Rurikid ruling family of the Rus’ remains questionable. Furthermore, his successor Igor of Kiev is also a matter of much controversy among historians.

The claim of ethnic connections has always been an excuse for invasion. Hitler began his invasion under the pretense he was defending ethnic Germans being prejudiced. The occupation of the Sudetenland, the border regions in the north and west of Czechoslovakia, was the first time Hitler flexed his military muscles in Europe. The region was conceded to Germany by the Czech government in an attempt to avoid war after the Germans made demands for it to be handed over. Hitler’s claim was to unite the German-speaking people of this region with Germany. This has always been a common theme in war. Nonetheless, the conversion of Russia to Greek Orthodox is a little more complicated. In 1439, at the Council of Florence, some Orthodox hierarchs from Byzantium as well as Metropolitan Isidore, who represented the Russian Church, signed a union with the Roman Church, whereby the Eastern Church would recognize the primacy of the Pope. However, the Moscow Prince Vasili II rejected the act of the Council of Florence brought to Moscow by Isidore in March 1441.

The real final division came with the niece of the last Byzantine Emperor Constantine XI, Sophia Paleologa (1440/49-1503), who eventually went to Russia and married Ivan III (The Great) (1462-1505) when Constantinople fell to the Turks in 1453. Many scholars fled to Rome and there they opened schools. It was no coincidence that Christopher Columbus used the teachings of the Greeks to argue that the world was round.

The marriage between Sophia and Ivan III was proposed by Pope Paul II in 1469. This was intended to strengthen the influence of the Roman Catholic Church in Russia and the unification of the Orthodox and Catholic as was attempted in the Council of Florence. Most likely, Ivan III’s motives for pursuing this union was probably connected with the status and rights of the Greek princess over Constantinople. He was marrying into a historical line of royalty that dated back centuries. Sophia brought her court with her and it was probably the Greek line that actually justified more than ever maintaining the Orthodox religion separate and distinct from Rome.

The early history of Russia can be divided into three 224 year cycles of Cimmerian Rule, followed by cycles of Scythian Rule, then cycles of Sarmatian Rule, with the invasion of the Goths in the 3rd Century followed by the 4th Century invasion of the Huns in 370AD. Upon the death of Attila in 453AD, it was the Avars who took control, although they were closely related to the Huns. Russia fell to the Mongols led by the grandson of Genghis Khan who destroyed the capital Kiev in 1240AD. Moscow began to rise as a city in the 14th century. The Mongols were fierce warriors. Genghis Khan had tried to conquer China, but broke off his invasion in 1218 and turned toward the West. He died in 1227AD, and it was his grandson who turned back to conquer China in 1279. His dynasty fell in 1368, and so was the fate of the Mongolian Empire.

The Russian Monetary System began also with cattle (skot) during the Kievan period. Skins of small animals and precious metals were used as fixed-value exchange rate based upon barter goods. Up until the end of the 12th century, cattle was the unit of account but commerce took place with the skins of small animals. Actually, furs became the common method of payment for they were valued in terms of cattle, but were much easier for transport and divisibility for small transactions. This made small furs much more suitable for money and they were also an important item of export. Written sources began to speak of such units of payment as kuna (marten’s fur, from kunitsa, a marten), belka or veksha (squirrel), veveritsa (ermine) and nogata (fur with legs, from Arabic nagd, a good or full-value coin), and also of pieces of fur (resana), muzzle furs (mordka) and paw furs (lapka).

The word for silver was “serebro” which became more and more common to denote money as trade with the Byzantine world increased. The Old Russian words kuna and nogata, come from the old “fur money” or “leather money,” thereby retaining their meaning as metal money began to emerge. The names continued in use even though the money began to change to metals given the trade with the Byzantine world. The Rus relied upon foreign produced money. Both Byzantine silver coins and the silver dirhems of the Arab Caliphate are found in Ukraine and parts of Russia confirming trade existed.

It is clear that there was a change from “fur money” to silver and the oldest Russian unit of value was the “grivna”, which was based on the Arab coinage system. We begin to find only from the 10th century onwards that local coinage began to be struck and once this took place, then coins became the actual unit of payment in markets. This enabled the expansion of the economy and really the rise of Russia out of the barter age. The “grivna” became both a unit of account an money by weight. Its value equaled to that of 96 gold dinars (s[o]lotniki) or 144 silver dirhems (s[e]rebreniki)

Australia is making it that anyone convicted of any crime whatsoever that they can call a “criminal”will have the burden to explain how they got all the money in their life.

Australia Adopts Presumption of Guilt Denying Any Presumption of Innocence Rejecting All Principles of a Free Society

Posted Aug 8, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Australia is really rejecting all the basic tenets of civilization and is moving ever closer and closer to simply an authoritarian government. Australia is rejecting the foundation of a FREE SOCIETY by rejecting the presumption of innocence and assuming you are just guilty while shifting the burden to you to prove you are innocent. Australia has rejected the fundamental principle of a FREE SOCIETYand is now crossing into the zone of an authoritarian regime that is unfit for consideration of capital investment. This is a BLUNT statement, but it is one that indeed is shocking to have to even write.

Australia is making it that anyone convicted of any crime whatsoever that they can call a “criminal”will have the burden to explain how they got all the money in their life. In reality, Australia has restored the very greed of the state that led to the abuse of the rule of law that even led to the both the English Civil War and the American Revolution. The English system was stark. If you were charged with a felony, of which there were over 200 such crimes that did not need to be violent, then you were sentenced to death and the king confiscated all your property. Your family was thrown out of the street. This is where torture entered the legal system. If you confessed, then you were granted a swift death and the King took all your property. Even entering a plea of not guilty would result in the confiscation of all your property. People would stand there and refuse to enter a plea. The king would then torture you. Many people endured the torture to save their families.

This is the policy now adopted by Australia. Under a national scheme, the government gets to confiscate ALL your assets if you are convicted of a crime. Of course, this now creates the incentive to deny people the right to any fair trial and the average conviction rate of 90% will now surely rise to match that of the United States which stands at around 99%. Unfortunately, a Senate committee unanimously recommended the “unexplained wealth” legislation be passed despite concerns being raised by the Law Council and Civil Liberties Australia.

It is shocking that Australia would even contemplate such legislation that would force people convicted of crimes to prove that their wealth was derived from legitimate sources. The way this will be enforced is clear. You can be convicted of drunk driving and then have to prove all your assets are derived from legitimate sources. There will be NO requirement to establish any nexus between the crime being charges and the possession of assets.

Banks will be forced to hand over any information they have on the unexplained wealth of a convicted person in Australia. The Police Federation has been lobbying for this type of legislation so they can fill their coffers and pay their pensions

Those in power are often the people who have little experience in the real world and could not make it there so they gravitate toward government

InfoWars Banned for Hate Speech?

Posted Aug 7, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The new European regulations are actually having an impact globally. Alex Jones’ InfoWars has been banned by Apple’s decision to remove five podcasts by Jones and his Infowars website. Other companies have rushed to join including Facebook, YouTube, and Spotify. The general reason is Jones’s podcasts are viewed as “hate content” which allows them to heavy fines in Europe. While I have appeared one time on his InfoWars, I do not create conspiracy scenarios nor do I agree with many. I look deeper than just the surface. I have stated bluntly that the forecasts made at Davos and the Bilderberg Meetings are ALWAYS wrong! Even the BBC asked why do economists get it so wrong? I have stated countless times that if there really was some giant conspiracy that controlled the world, they would NEVER call me in, to begin with. The far more scary reality is the powers that be are clueless and are ruling by the seat of their pants.

It just seems as if those in power are often the people who have little experience in the real world and could not make it there so they gravitate toward government and power. Sure, you can pretend to connect dots. However, you have to actually peek behind the curtain and then you are faced with a frightening reality – nobody is in charge and there is no long-term grand plan. I cannot see some new world order of one government EVER happening without war. You cannot get the Democrats and Republicans to agree in Congress. You really expect all world governments to ever agree to a SINGLE POWER?

Even the refugee crisis is nuts. In Britain, they call it racist to disagree. But Muslim is not a race. The reality of this is rather simple. You offer free handouts, healthcare, and paid vacations just to show up, and it is HUMAN NATURE to take advantage. This knows no race, gender, or creed limitation.

I have worked around the world. Politicians are the same everywhere. They will act ONLY out of their own self-interest. Adam Smith’s invisible hand remains supreme