Tuesday, December 13, 2016

23k level- that is what we have to exceed to get the Phase Transition to 40k.


Dow For Wed December 14, 2016

djind-d-12-14-2016
djfor-d-12-14-2016djind-w-12-14-2016
We are pushing up against the next resistance level. We need to close above 19,970 to imply we will break through the 20k level. It does not yet appear to be ready to burst through the 21K level. Nevertheless, the next main target is still in the 23k level. That is what we have to exceed to get the Phase Transition to 40k.

THE CYCLE OF ASSASSINATION & WAR BOTTOMED IN 2014

War-Cycle-2014
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; you previously wrote that if Trump were elected he might be assassinated. Do you still see that as a potential?
ANSWER: Absolutely. There is an 11-year average cycle for attempts to assassinate the president. Here is the list below:
assassinations
The assassination cycle actually bottomed in 2014 with the Cycle of War. This means we are on an uptrend that may be the strongest uptrend in U.S. history. We have to understand that there will be an uptick in the anarchist philosophy that rose side-by-side with Marxism. There will be a VERY BIG risk that attempts on Trump will take place. It is possible they could even succeed and this would clearly fuel the civil unrest by pitting left against right in violent confrontations. This cycle may not peak until 2022-2024.

India’s Gold Confiscation & Turkey’s War on Currency

India’s Gold Confiscation & Turkey’s War on Currency


modi
QUESTION: Marty; You have been emphasizing not to buy gold bullion but US gold coins such as the $20. You have said that the last time they confiscated gold coin collections were exempt. With the drastic action in India, and the war on currency in Turkey, is this why you have said stocks and collectibles are a safer bet?
ANSWER:There are no safe bets. However, we are in the collapse of socialism. The left is always the most dangerous because they see themselves as victims. Narendra Damodardas Modi is proving to be a very dangerous radical who is extremely misguided. His demonetization of the currency was carried out without even asking the Reserve Bank. His BJP party advocates social conservatism and a foreign policy centered on nationalist principles. Generally, Modi has focused on a largely neoliberal economic policy prioritizing globalization and economic growth over social welfare. In sum, he is subjugating the people to his goal of globalization.
China and Russia saw their revolutions from the left led by the youth. India is trying to eradicate the underground economy. They first eliminated cash, which is preventing small businesses from paying employees. Unemployment will now soar. They are now attacking gold and this is all about creating a forced above ground economy so it can be regulated and taxed. People are reduced to using rice for money.
turkish-lira-1960-2015
Turkey is doing the same thing. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has begun his war on foreign currency because the Turkish lira is being devastated in international markets. His dream of recreating the Ottoman Empire will fail. He has lost the confidence of the people as well as the world. He is saying anyone who has $1 bills is a traitor. He is telling the population to convert their foreign currency to Turkish lira out of patriotism.

A rate hike in USA will send the rupee down and that will be feeding inflation

Lobbying Moves into High Gear Against Fed Rate Hike

reserve-bank-india-rbi
The lobbying is off and running is super-high gear to stop the Fed from raising rates once again. Governments all over the world have a very myopic view and focused only on the next quarter, or the next election. The Reserve Bank of India also fears that the US Fed’s impending interest rise would affect the external value of the rupee. Again the IMF behind the curtain is on its needs. Any depreciation of the rupee as a result of capital outflows would only worsen the balance of payments for India and expose the insane policies of Modi who did not even consult the RBI before demonetizing the currency.
Anyone with half a brain in economics knows that the worst thin you can do to create a depression is cause the velocity of money to decline. If people hoard and do not spend, the economy implodes. Modi is trying to end the cash economy, but he has ensured unemployment will now soar because small businesses cannot pay their people.Expect at least another 400,000 people to lose their jobs and people are forced to use rice as money.
Additionally, a rate hike in USA will send the rupee down and that will be feeding inflation due to rise in prices of imported commodities. Inflationary expectations are real keeping food prices high posing a threat to domestic price stability and external value of rupee. The RBI declined to lower rates looking at the prospects that the USA may raise rates so high rates are necessary to try to stem the outflow of capital.

Friday, December 9, 2016

US 30-Year Bonds — the Party Is Over




ubcbt-w-12-08-2016
On July 11, 2016, the 30-year bond peaked on the nearest futures at 177110. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 2.088%, and on that day, the Swiss government actually found some real suckers to buy 50-year bonds at negative yields out to 2076. The buyers will not be around to experience the official default, so why would they really care. This was the end of the bond bubble, and despite all the banter and opinions, this is a major, major, major peak in government. There is NOWHERE to go but down from here on out. If you own any bond fund, you better get out. This is a real game changer, and of course, every bond fund manager will tell you the stock market will crash so buy bonds.
fed-30yr-rate
The yield on the 30-year bonds peaked in 1981 with the precise high in the Economic Confidence Model. This was a perfect 35-year decline (the gap on the chart is when they stopped issuing 30-year bonds). The 2015 closing was 15340. We closed yesterday at 151060. What is the significance of this? A lower closing for 2016 after making a new intraday high will technically be the kiss of death.
ubcbt-y-12-08-2016
Here is the yearly chart of the 30-year using our recreation and extending the data series back to the beginning of the United States. We have important technical resistance at 159610 and 157205 for the closing of 2016.
ubcbt-y-for-12-08-2016
Then 2016 was our target for the high and you can see this was also a direction change. We should expect to now see the bonds fall over the course of the next two years going into 2018. This will most likely be accompanied by a rising dollar and stock market. We can see that the volatility will start to really become pronounced in 2018.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Freedom of Movement – Four Aspects Under Assault




movement-free
We tend to assume that the freedom of movement is confined solely to migration and travel. There are four aspects to the freedom of movement, and migration or travel is only one. Yes, we warned that the Schengen Agreement would come to an end and the European refugee crisis has enabled that decline. We warned that this agreement, signed in 1985, was reaching the end and would begin to be “overthrown … come 2016.867 or November 12, 2016,” which was pi – 31.415 years from the signing.
There are four facets to the freedom of movement, which people far too often do not look at or understand their vital role in furthering the development of civilization. What truly made Rome a great enduring Empire was more than just might. Roman imperial history cannot ignore the freedom of movement in all four aspects: 1.) translation of texts, practices, and ideas; 2.) communication or the movement of written documents (i.e. today’s internet, phone calls, and texting); 3.) migration (i.e. officials, merchants, students, etc.); and 4.) the free movement of goods and services. The interrelationships among the four aspects of the freedom of movement are critical to the advancement of civilization.
redit-forecaster-banned
1.) The freedom of movement that enabled the translation of concepts and ideas has often been curtailed. For example, Lenin’s book “What is to be Done?” was first published in Germany during 1902, but it was outlawed for publication and distribution in Russia. For my own movie, “The Forecaster,” the distribution rights were bought in the United States and Switzerland, and then they refused to show it. In London, the film was not blocked, but the night of the debut the Evening Standard ran a story about a local headhunter named Martin Armstrong who said the bankers were worth every penny — but they used my picture. The freedom of translation is denied all the time and governments employ such tactics out of their self-interests.
Today, this would include books, movies, and also the internet. Turkey, for example, blocked Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube throughout Turkey on Friday, November 4, 2016. They also blocked the messaging services WhatsApp, Skype, and Instagram. The United States monitors everything through the NSA. Europe has also been looking at restricting the internet (eu-restrict-internet).
2.) The aspect of communication in the freedom of movement involves written documents, phone calls, and texting. The two major inventions that made the Roman empire soar were road and mail service. Yes, the Romans were really the inventors of the pony express. Letters have been discovered at Vindolanda in Britain at Hadrian’s Wall. Discoveries include formal letters of military issue, a letter from Octavius about supplies, the oldest letter from a woman, and even an invite to a birthday party back in Rome. Such letters could be delivered in just seven days.
Restricting this aspect of free movement changes the role of the state as well as relations between individuals and states. The implications of the assault on the free movement of communications are expanding under the pretense that they need to track what people are doing for taxes. This direct assault is altering relations in ways of organizing and thinking among individuals while hampering the expansion of global commerce.
3.) The third aspect of the freedom of movement is migrating one’s actual person. The saying, “All roads lead to Rome” was indicative of Rome’s vast road network that facilitated this free movement of people and trade. This restriction is expanding once again insofar as restrictions on carrying anything of value due to taxes. There are already visa requirements for many states that are typically used when there are concerns of migration.
4.) Finally, the fourth aspect of the freedom of movement is goods and services. The Roman Empire facilitated free trade, which was the foundation of the Roman economy. True, Donald Trump soared to the White House on the back of middle class America who were forgotten when they lost their jobs to foreign imports. Yes, you can put up barriers and tariffs to protect local jobs in every political state. However, this is a losing battle and it only looks at labor in the same manner as Karl Marx who took the position that nothing has value except for the labor to produce it. Keeping overvalued jobs may bring cheers from displaced workers, but it also imposes higher costs to the consumer.
Why are jobs leaving the country? It is not due exclusively to cheaper labor. That is total nonsense. It is the huge cost of regulation and taxes. The higher government raises taxes, the more overvalued the cost of labor. When I helped restructure companies looking to set up plants inside Europe, I had to weigh all costs. I placed manufacturing jobs in Britain because 1.) they had the skilled labor force, and 2.) they had 40% less in taxation from the corporate aspect compared to Germany and certainly France. It they needed the best tax deal without the skilled labor for manufacturing, I placed those companies in Ireland. It was not the cost of labor that was the deciding factor, but the taxation.
The United States is the most unstable country when it comes to taxes. You cannot set out a business plan for 25 years because the tax rates may change every four years. Companies leave the U.S., not because of the price of labor, but to have a safe and secure place to do business without the rules changing. Therefore, restricting the free movement of goods and services denies the ability of the economy to grow and adapt. Shall we ban computers because they can do your taxes faster and cheaper than an accountant? How many accountants were denied a job because of TurboTax?
If government restricts the freedom of movement with respect to people, trade, ideas, communication, and good and services, the world economy cannot possibly survive and this places us at risk of a frightening Dark Age all because governments fear losing power and are desperate to hunt money for confiscation. The first thing we must do to save all four aspects of the freedom of movement is to sharply reduce government’s invasion into every possible aspect of our lives.

Friday, November 25, 2016

The Reversal System defines four sub-levels within each major time level

Fractal nature of trading

DeutscheBank-1
QUESTION: Marty; you said at the cocktail party that there are four level of time within each major level of time from daily to yearly. You said that trading results depend upon how you use the model for it is not a one dimensional model so people trying to compare trading results are usually lost. I have seen people who try to bash you and it becomes so obvious that they are mad because they have been wrong and just blame you. I looked at your track record from Deutsche Bank when you managed the hedge fund for them. You had the lowest drawdown of anyone probably in history. There is proof you have done what others cannot do. Can you explain a bit more how you see into the world connections and markets?
Thank you for a wonderful conference. You also put on such a first class even with unlimited food and drinks. They are better than any wedding or bat mitzvah I have ever been invited to. You have to spend hundreds of dollars per head per day. Your staff were very professional and your daughter ran the show. She can stand up before the crowd with no fear just like you. Hope you are grooming her to replace you.
LF
four-levels
MatrixANSWER: Yes absolutely everything is connected. Once you see it, it might be a bit like Neo in the Matrix and you cannot go backwards. You certainly cannot be a hedge fund manager unless you think dynamically and see the connections. If you cannot do that, do not try to manage money.
You must understand that markets are fractal. So each level daily to yearly is the first step in carving up time. Time is totally arbitrary. I can start a week on Tuesday or make it 8 days instead of 7. Each slice of time will reveal the trend. We can produce a Yearly Bearish Reversal every day of the week by recalculating a year to end that day. There is so much we can do but it requires tremendous computer power.
Reversals
The Reversal System defines four sub-levels within each major time level. So it depends on how you wish to use them. You can use them all and you will get one result with greater trading activity. The lower chart just use the long-term. This reduces the trading activity and produces a different net return of 4780 compared to 34850.
Now, you can take these results and add in the Weekly Reversals, then Monthly, Quarterly, and Yearly. We will be adding these option to the Trader Pro version. This way you can tailor the model to your particular desire. It is by no means quantifiable as a single one-dimension tool.
Then the model can be used for speculation or hedging. A hedging model is either long or short. It does not add to positions as the trend unfolds. The Reversals are definitive numbers, but they are separate and distinct from TIME. Reversals do not tell us WHEN they will be elected. That is where the cycles come into play. In the case of gold, we had the Monthly Bullish Reversal 1362 and ONLY exceeding that would it change the direction of gold. I wrote on February 11th, 2016: “The Monthly Bullish stands up at 1362. That is what we need to elect to suggest that a change in trend is possible. Otherwise, be cautious. We are looking at all markets pushing to their extremes. This is the prelude to the chaos coming in 2017.”
If you are going to change trend, that takes place ONLY at the Monthly level. This is why I have stated countless times you must define where you are right and and where you are wrong. I did that – 1362. You cannot get more black and white than that. I warned that the Quarterly Bullish Reversal was 1347. On August 2nd, I wrote on the Private Blog:
“We still need to get a monthly closing above 1362 to suggest that the 2015 low would potentially hold. We would also need to close September above 1347 and year-end above the 2015 high technically. These targets must be met to imply gold will hold.”
gcnynf-d-9-30-2016
Reversals TimingGold crashed to avoid also the Quarterly Bullish Reversal at 1347 on September 30th. Meanwhile, the angle of the market points to new record lows. I have been warning that we face a major dollar rally. Only such a rally will break the back of the world economy. A lower dollar will bailout the Emerging Markets where a high dollar will create sovereign defaults around the globe.
Opinions are something we all have. But TIMING comes first and then the NUMBERS. This is very black and white. The people who are so desperate to also prove me wrong rage against my opinion. That’s fine. I really do not care because they are absolute fools. They attack me like everyone else and fail to comprehend this is not about my opinion. Neither the Reversals nor the Cycles are based upon my subjective opinion. The model was correct it forecasting both Trump and BREXIT. That was not my personal opinion or desire.
SHIP
As long as idiots try to attack me personally, they are revealing that they are linear thinkers, more suited to work for government, and are incapable of seeing the world around them as interconnected and dynamic. They are the same type of people who fought against the idea that the world was round because how could you stand upside down on a ball? They lacked to understanding of gravity and burned Bruno alive at the stake for daring to say that the earth revolved around the sun.
In this instance, they do not comprehend the global economy and how we are all connected. Leonardo da Vinci also said: “Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else.” 
As along as they continue to rail against me, don’t worry, we will always have fools to trade against. We need them on the other side. I have no desire of convincing them otherwise. As long as they attack me, it proves they are not capable of learning how to see the world in which they live.