2023- War cycle

 Biden’s Hatred of Russia Predates Putin

Posted Jul 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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I do not understand why our world leaders are so intent on creating war. Here in 1997, Biden wants to admit the Balkans into NATO at any cost to create an internal violent reaction inside Russia. This is two years BEFORE Putin. It appears to be what I have said all along. In 1997, Yeltsin had been reelected. He was pushing for democracy and economic freedom. The fact that he was battling the old-line Communists seems to have made no difference to Biden. It never mattered who was in charge of Russia. The narrative was that Russia was the enemy and nothing else would matter. If Russia was NOT the enemy, then NATO was no longer relevant.

Today, we have nothing but hatred building up on both sides, Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has come out and declared that  he is waiting on an order from the Russian president to blast Western countries into “smithereens.” Once upon a time, we use to fear nuclear war. Today, we seem to be praying for it. There are no peacemakers anymore – only seating hatred. Anyone who takes against war is called a Putin Supporter. But this shows all along the hatred of Russia existed long before Putin.

Carl Gersham, the long-time director of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), came out in 2013 before the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution and wrote in the Washington Post that: “Ukraine is the biggest prize.” He advocated targeting Ukraine to break its ties to Russia and then “Putin may find himself on the losing end not just in the near abroad but within Russia itself.” The idea of regime change was one of the tools of the CIA. It is no longer a covert tool. It is now fully in the open. War is no longer abstract. It is now inevitable and our computer will be correct once more.

Since the 2011 World Economic Conference where I put out the forecast from our computer that the war cycle would turn up in 2014, that was precisely on target with the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution which started the whole nightmare.

Global Water Scarcity on Schedule - 2050

 

Posted Jul 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

A new study by the University of Colorado Boulder published on “One Earth” cites water scarcity as the top threat to food security in the next 20 years. “Multiple events occurring at the same time compound the problem,” the study noted, citing droughts, floods, heat waves, pest outbreaks, diseases, and financial and political conflicts. Over 50% of those experiencing food insecurity live in conflict regions, and increasing political instability and civil unrest will cause this figure to rise. Various agencies such as the World Bank and United Nations have cited that food insecurity reached record levels in 2021 and has increased in 2022. However, one aspect that is not often discussed is water.

Humans can survive longer without food than water. Without water, there are no crops or cattle. Other studies point to increasing global demand for water as well. A 2019 study, “Reassessing the projections of the World Water Development Report,” found that water demand increased 600% over the past century.

“Global water demand for all uses, presently about 4,600 km3 per year, will increase by 20% to 30% by 2050, up to 5,500 to 6,000 km3 per year. Global water demand for agriculture will increase by 60% by 2025. By 2050 the global population will increase to between 9.4 to 10.2 billion people, an increment of 22% to 32%.”

Agricultural needs represent 70% of water demand. The poorest nations often have less access to clean water, and these are the same areas where the population is expected to rise. The aforementioned study also states that food demand will increase by 60% by 2050.

Our model projected entering another “grand minimum,” which overtook the sun beginning in 2020 and will last through the 2050s. This will result in diminished magnetism, infrequent sunspot production, and less ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching Earth. We are facing a global cooling period on the planet that may span 31 to 43 years. It is interesting that these studies are pointing to 2050 as the point where water will become extremely scarce as it aligns with our models’ projection for the weather as we will then enter a new sunspot cycle.

Russia to Cut off Germany from Gas Thanks to Zelensky - higher volatility in August

 

Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is very interesting how Volodymyr Zelensky is doing whatever he can, not merely to destroy all of Europe, but to push the world into World War III because of his and Ukraine’s inherent hatred of Russians. He has told Justin Trudeau that Ukrainians would never accept Canada’s decision to return a gas turbine intended for a Russian pipeline because it would encourage more sanctions violations. Meanwhile, Gazprom has come out and stated that it could no longer guarantee its “good functioning” pipeline to Germany due to crucial turbines that are being held up in Canada because of sanctions.

Gazprom has declared extraordinary circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to Germany, whereby the gas flow to Europe will stop flowing indefinitely. Reuters reported a letter dated July 14, 2022. Zelensky thinks cutting gas supplies to Germany will force NATO to invade Russia. Kyiv will be the first to go before Zelensky can make it to his private jet to run off to enjoy the hundreds of millions he is stashing offshore.

Perhaps Germany should now invade Ukraine. It seems to be the only way to save Europe.

Our computer has been targeting here late July and August and high volatility and August as a Panic Cycle in some markets. But just about everything is going nuts into 2023. A quarterly closing above $6.25 in natural gas, which it has NOT been able to achieve this far, will confirm this is going to get much worse. Therefore, a September closing ABOVE $6.25 will be a serious warning for 2023. We had a rare Double Directional Change this quarter, so it looks like we have the most brain-dead crop of world leaders ever in human history and Zelensky, who I warned was the man who would create World War III.

Even NYC lost over 5,000 small businesses thanks to COVID. There isn’t a single decision these people are capable of making. It has reached the point that people who I know personally, who would be qualified to lead, are simply not interested due to the WOKE culture. We are simply headed into a politically created nightmare.

We see sharply higher volatility in August and the SIGNIFICANT risk of war coming in the first quarter of 2023. This is NOT something that is my personal opinion. The only thing that can actually target periods well in advance is an unbiased computer. It was Socrates that targeted 2008 as a Panic Cycle published back in 1999, which can be verified on the Wayback Machine. That was not only the Great Crash that set in motion negative interest rates theories, but it was the historical high in the euro.

The Assassination Cycle

 

As civil unrest grows, many question whether world leaders are at risk of assassination. Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was murdered while delivering a speech, but contempt toward world leaders is growing across the globe. In the US, there is an 11-year cyclical average of presidential assassination attempts. I warned that the Cycle of War bottomed in 2014 and has been on a strong uptrend ever since. This would lead us to a potential presidential assassination attempt, right on target, in 2022. The cycle is likely to peak between 2022 and 2024, both marking election years.

The Disease Cycle 2027-28

 

Posted Jul 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, You have forecasted that your disease model turned up here in 2022. COVID was exploited, but it was no worse than the flu. Then there is monkeypox. But the latest is the much more lethal Marburg virus in Africa. Is this going to be the real one?

DC

ANSWER: The model did not target a specific virus. There are serious outbreaks throughout history but they are not always the same virus or bacteria. The history of this particular virus only goes back to 1967. This particular virus has a base cycle of 5-year intervals. The major outbreak was 2004-2005 which lasted into 2008. Ideally, our model projected that would reappear in 2013 and it showed up in 2012 a little ahead of schedule.

A major outbreak should come in the 2027-2028 time period. But keep in mind that this has not turned into a pandemic and has been confined to Africa. It is spread through bodily fluids so which usually involves sex or touching an open sore. So I would not be concerned that this will spread to your neighborhood without human intervention. The most devastating disease cycle will be from 2027 into 2050.2027

The Future – Post 2032 – A New Beginning? - Population models suggest up to a 50% reduction perhaps as soon as 2040.

 

Posted Jul 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Will you explain what Socrates foresees for after 2032 at this year’s WEC in November? I’m more concerned about my grandkids. A lot of people seem to be plagiarizing you these days. But all they have to offer is an opinion and we all have opinions. Socrates has been the only thing that has ever been consistently correct.

TH

ANSWER: I have warned that the Economic Confidence Model and how markets even trade themselves is always fractal. We are completing the end of the BIG ONE. I think a lot of people are starting to see this too. The End of the World is by no means the END. It is just the point in history where it all begins again. We can see that Biden is probably the instrument of death, or should I say those who write his executive orders and cheat sheets. They are obsessed with climate change and are deliberately trying to destroy our capacity to produce and use fossil fuels. 

The hatred and division in our society is just insane. We have celebrities canceling the 4th of July over abortion. The very law that the Supreme Court ruled on limited abortion to 15 weeks. They seem to think they have the right to kill a child up to birth. Bette Midler started a controversy on Twitter by posting: “They don’t call us ‘women’ anymore; they call us ‘birthing people’ or ‘menstruators,’ and even ‘people with vaginas!’ Don’t let them erase you! Every human on earth owes you.” The world has gone insane, and all these labels only divide society, creating one group against another. This is the total destruction of society and these people are so stupid, that they cannot see what they are doing because of their own deranged views.

There is an ebb and flow to civilization. We all come together because it benefits all of us, and then it falls apart when one group begins to exploit another. This is the basic rhythm of civilization. As taxes are low and the economy booms in the city, the youth are attracted to the city and leave their parents on the farms or suburbs and head off to make their fortune in the world. Rome became the largest city in history, reaching a population in excess of 1 million by its peak in 180 AD. It had crossed that 1 million mark in 133 AD during the reign of Hadrian (117-138AD).

With the death of Marcus Aurelius (161-180 AD) in 180 AD, the decline and fall began just 51.6 years after it exceeded one million people. The crazy emperor Commodus (177-192 AD) followed his father. Like the Democrats today who attack anyone who supported Trump and are still running against Trump in 2022, Commodus did the same, and anyone who had supported his father he attacked. Today, Liz Cheney, who is as evil as her father in my opinion, is today’s Commodus. She is the destroyer of civilization, for her personal hatred of Trump is dividing the nation and will ensure that people like her will end the United States as we have known it. Cheney will unleash civil war if she really thinks that she can prevent Trump from running imprisoning over 300 people already for entering the Capitol on January 6. Not even their hated Putin even did that to protesters. This will lead to civil war.

Edward Gibbon wrote in his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” about the son of Marcus Aurelius and how he set in motion the collapse of Rome. He wrote of Commodus (177-192AD):

“distinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse”

(Book 1, Chapter 4).

We see the same hatred spewing from Cheney’s mouth and with the Democrats. Nobody seems to understand what makes civilization work. They are dividing civilization for personal hatred and gain and in the process fulfilling the cycle that will end civilization as we know it.

Rome was the largest city in ancient times. It eventually collapsed to a population of just 15,000 during the middle ages. The city of London, England, was the first city to reach a population again of one million and it took nearly 6 waves of 309.6 years. London reached the 1 million mark in 1810 during the reign of George III (1760-1820) and in comparison, New York City finally reached that level in 1875 thanks to all the people fleeing Europe. We once again are approaching the peak in civilization and what will come after 2032 will be once more the disintegration of civilization.

Rome fell and broke up into small enclaves that ushered in the feudal system. People became serfs for the common protection of a landlord and his castle. We still retain the word “landlord” to this very day. We will see a new world where countries will no longer exist as we know them and they will all divide and separate into localized jurisdictions lacking the strength of central power.

There will be battles over separation. About 86 years from the peak of Rome, it was divided into three segments. Then there were battles to reunite the empire. Then Constantine divided the empire by moving the capital to Constantinople, which is today Istanbul. Even when Russia fell, it divided regions along the lines of the original countries that were conquered.

Globalization will come to an end and we’re already witnessing this with the Biden sanctions on Russia that have caused inflation and divided the world economy in two. We will witness a return to make the manufacture of various goods locally for each division as well as growing their own food. Energy may revert back to wood and oil for there will be no major power grids as they become localized.

Our population models suggest up to a 50% reduction perhaps as soon as 2040. The population is already shrinking and aging in all the major industrialized nations. Just as in ancient Rome, the first Emperor Augustus issued Family Laws because as an economy expands, the birthrate declines. We see many young girls professing they do not want children. This too is part of the cycle, but they will die alone for children historically were the foundation of civilization as they were charged with taking care of their parents. This is what socialism has done — destroyed the family unit.

I often am asked, how can we prevent the trend. Unfortunately, we cannot. It is far greater than anyone can correct. People like Jessica Chastain are all about them. Without children, her luxurious lifestyle will crumble and she will face the stark reality of how civilization has survived with children taking care of their parents. Even in China, the one-child rule significantly altered its future. While that has now been repealed, the damage long-term is profound.

This will be a NEW BEGINNING for civilization. We will get to rewrite the form of government of the future. This will be a 309.6-year Private Wave, which will be volatile, but our current form of Republics that pretend they are democracies are coming to an end. These are the most corrupt forms of government known in history. They will no longer exist. We will see an admixture of dictatorships/monarchies and democracies.