Kazakhstan – NATO & The ECM into 2032

 

Posted Jan 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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There is a confrontation in the wind. Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister and special negotiator in the US-Russia talks in Geneva, bluntly states that NATO can no longer “push” Russia to a minor role in European and international politics. NATO must return to the borders of 1997. Russia is blaming the US for the uprising in Kazakhstan. If we look at the NATO borders, we can see how Russia is concerned.

In 1949, there were 12 founding members of NATO including Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Additional nations were added as follows: Greece and Turkey in 1952, Germany in 1955, Spain in 1982, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland in 1999, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia in 2004, Albania and Croatia in 2009 and Montenegro in 2017. Therefore, pushing the border back to 1997 means NATO must vacate Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, and Montenegro.

In Kazakhstan, at the beginning of the year, a sudden doubling in the prices of the LPG in Kazakhstan ignited riots within the nation that is renowned for its oil reserves and financial stability. Kazakhstan is one of the largest oil reserves on the planet. Still, riots started as a result of a hike in prices of LPG at the beginning of the year 2022. Protests expanded and soon turned into violence which in turn led to the destruction of government and private properties along with the loss of many lives. As a result, On January 5th, 2022 the Government of Kazakhstan resigned right on our target date of January 6th, 2022 but had no effect on the agitation. As a result, the Government resigned but the protest is still not under control. Chaos expanded and led to further unnecessary loss of lives and property. Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev asked for help from Russia as he was unable to handle the situation inside the country.

Kazakhstan is strategically important for its oil reserves. It’s critically as important to Russia and even more so than Belarus or Ukraine. Russia and Kazakhstan have the largest continuous land border on planet earth. Kazakhstan has had a very stable economy. Thus the doubling of energy has seriously destabilized the country and this is something the globalists may have cheered thinking they can usher in the Great Reset and end energy production there, but their grand plan will fail. The energy crisis has also ignited the old religious tensions that we subdued thanks to economics. But destabilize the economy and old wounds arise.

A significant fraction of the country’s 19 million residents are Christian Russians – one-quarter of the population of Kazakhstan is ethnic Russians. During the days of the Soviet Union, Russians migrated to various parts that included Kazakhstan as well as Eastern Ukraine. Russia has an obligation to protect Russian in Kazakhstan more so than Ukraine because they are a religious minority in a Muslim country which is significantly different from just land claims in Ukraine and NATO expansion.

There has been an underlying Kazakh nationalist movement centered on religion for they are virtually all Muslim. They oppose the Orthodox-Christian Russian minority and Russia for that matter. The general concern is that a civil war in Kazakhstan would result in an anti-Russian ethnic cleansing rooted in religion. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev who tried to appease the mob ordered the governors to return the price controls. Unlike Ukraine where Yanukovich could not even speak proper Ukrainian, here the president is Muslim.

In this case, a religious war in Kazakhstan would send refugees pouring into Russia which again is not the case in Ukraine. Kazakhstan just so happens to be also the heart of the Soviet space program and it develops its S-550 ABM system critical to its national security for Russia also extracts Uranium from Kazakhstan for its nuclear fuel.

 

 

This is strikingly different from the Ukrainian revolution which was over corruption. Here in Kazakhstan, there is an underlying religious tension mixed with national security. On January 6th, 2022, Britain warned Moscow that it was working with Western partners on high-impact sanctions targetting Russia’s financial sector should it invade Ukraine. But this was the precise fall of the Kazakhstan government. These dates are always amazing to me. To watch how events happen to the very day.

For example, the Economic Confidence Model also marked the very day of the high on July 20th, 1998 in the US share market from which the Long-Term Capital Management crash began in September. The 1987 turning point picked the very day of the crash and confirmed the low and the capital flow shift which resulted in selling US assets repatriating cash to Japan creating the Bubble on the peak of that wave in 1989.95.

However, sometimes these turning points have been the opposite whereas the geopolitical or economic event comes first and the markets respond secondly to those events in the aftermath.

There have been many events both economically and geopolitically which have aligned with the Economic Confidence Model. There are people who just hate it and try desperately to dismiss this model out of hand because it confirms that any attempt to manipulate the economy by socialists will always fail.

Anyone who attempts to argue against the existence of any business cycle is typically someone who supports the government against the people in true Marxist fashion. Even Paul Volcker’s rare book from 1977 entitled The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle bluntly confirmed that Keynesian economics failed because it was supposed to eliminate recessions and depressions.

The peak in 1998 started the Long Term Capital Management Crisis and the first time the Federal Reserve stepped in to bail out a Hedge Fund to save the banks. Even the 911 famous attack on the World Trade Center took place on a specific turning point in 2001.695 to the very day. Not all wars begin precisely on this model, it may reflect when the combination of trends forms to create the decision to go to war which may predate the event by months or years. It is difficult to determine that instant of a decision, but clearly, war unfolds as the result of some trend set in motion previously.

The 2007 turning point picked the very day of the high in the real estate market and began the Great Crash that unleashed perpetual quantitative easing. The very day that Greece applied to the IMF beginning the European debt crisis took place on a precise day in the ECM – April 16, 2020. This was the very same position one which the 911 attack took place which resulted in not only the invasion of Iraq, but it altered our way of life forever having to be X-rayed to get on a plane.

While the peak of the wave 2015.75 marked the peak in government and the start of the Big Bang which is the Sovereign Debt Crisis we are now in following 2014 when the ECB moved to negative interest rates, that was certainly reflected by the peak in bond markets and the ultimate destruction of European sovereign debt which is why they now desperately need this Great Reset.

This target 2015.75 also marked the very day of Russia troops arriving in Syria which began the refugee crisis into Europe. Merkel’s unilateral decision to allow in the refugees set in motion the rising separatist movements in Europe. TheWashington Times wrote on September 10, 2015,“Angela Merkel welcomes refugees to Germany despite rising anti-immigrant movement.” Her decision illustrated that a single leader could alter the course of Europe denying everyone else the right to even vote on her policy.

Then the following year 2016 brought BREXIT and the election of Donald Trump which most people still fail to understand why he was elected. Trump beat all career politicians fulfilling what our model projected back in 1985 that the 2016 election would be the first time a potential third party would take the White House.

Nigel Farage was our keynote speaker at the WEC in Rome in 2019 and said we were the only one to forecast BREXIT would win. But we had also forecast at the start of this wave in 1985.65 that the first opportunity for a 3rd Party type candidate would win the White House was our Pi target from there which was 2017.05 the very day Donald Trump became president.

We also warned that the 2015.75 turning point would be the beginning of the great shift from PUBLIC to PRIVATE and that we would see real estate decline in real terms in the urban centers and rise in the suburban centers just as that pattern has appeared many times throughout history and even market the decline and fall of the Roman Empire.

Then the bottom of this ECM wave was more than the Trump Impeachment trial began on the turning point and a constitutional crisis in Russia that will allow Putin to stay in office indefinitely. It was the beginning of the COVID Pandemic scam. That marked the start of the COVID Crash into the March 2020 low.

Going back in time we find that the turning point in 1934.05 marked the confiscation of gold whereas the 1985 turning point marked the birth of the G5 and the organized attempt to manipulate the dollar lower. We have the last three waves of that 51.6-year sequences mark the new adoption of socialism following Karl Marx in the USA. This was the beginning of the “progressive” movement which led to the birth of the income tax by 1913.

January 6th, 2022 will go down in history as another important turning point. This is not just about Kazakhstan, this appears to be shaping up as the start of a major confrontation.

 

With respect to Ukraine, on March 1, 2014 (2014.164), the Russian government approved the invasion of Ukraine. That came on the Cycle of War Model which has been rather consistent. However, Russia then came to the aid of Syria precisely on the date of the Economic Confidence Model – 2015.75.

In addition, the ECM plotted from the Cuban Missile Crisis also targeted 2014.39 as the beginning of a new period of direct confrontation. That too pointed to 2014 and the period for the shift in geopolitical trend.

That was met with Obama imposing sanctions on Russia which was absurd. The idea that putting on sanctions will force the people to overthrow their government has never worked because the people know the enemy is not their own government but external. That boosted Putin’s polls.

Following January 6, 2022, which is the Ukrainian ECM, the next target to pay attention will be March 14th, 2022, the April 10th target that may be aligned with the French elections, and then we have October 5/6, 2022 which is 8.6 years from the 2014 turning point on the War Cycle and the Cuban Missile Model.

We are entering a very primal phase where society will be tested to the brink as this period of authoritarianism rises into 2032. The inflation also began in target with the turning point of 2020.05 as has been the rise in civil unrest. Governments are collapsing and they can no longer keep the monetary system going as they once did. This is why they are becoming authoritarian using COVID to scare people into compliance. Civil Unrest will rise because no amount of protesting will divert governments from this Great Reset. Thus, we will be faced with a global revolution post-2032 and a completely new form of government will be on the table. It is up to us to make sure that is for freedom and to not rob our posterity of the freedom we once knew when growing up.

Economic Confidence Model – When One Nation Peaks Another Bottoms

Posted Jul 10, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Martin,

I know that the basic ECM cycle’s 4.3 year decline subdivides into a 1.075 year decline, 1.075 year rise, and 2.15 year decline. However, if I remember correctly, the 2.15 year decline also includes the Pi cycle turn 3.14 years from the top.

If I remember correctly for this ECM cycle, the 2.15 year decline began 2017.9, should turn up about July 12, top with the Pi cycle 2018.89, and finally bottom 2020.05.

I have always wondered, (1) what is the basis of determining this turn up into the Pi cycle, and (2) is this turn up ever significant, or simply a setup for the major event, the November 22 (2018.89) Pi cycle?

Of course, please feel free to correct any of errors in my interpretation of your ECM.

Thanks,
-DB

ANSWER: Keep in mind that this is the global business cycle and not based an individual country. Therefore, we have peaks in one country and bottoms in another on the same turning point. For example, the 1994.25 turning point was the peak in the economies of Southeast Asia. Even when things do not line up precisely to the day with the ECM, the trend changes regardless. The turning point was March 1994 and here we turned in February. The correction at the end of 1998 was the Long-Term Capital Management collapse that was instigated by the loss in emerging markets, namely Russian bonds. I warned them that emerging markets peaked in 1994 and the capital flows shifted. They would not listen, invested in Russia because they assumed they bought the IMF, and when it all blew up they blamed me.

I have published this list of panics that I had discovered while doing research in the Firestone Library at Princeton University. Note that the first one listed was 1683, which was the Turkish invasion to conquer Veinna (the capital of the Holy Roman Empire at that time). It ended Austria as a financial center. Note 1720, which was the South Sea Bubble in Britain and the Mississippi Bubble in France. The list that led me to the discovery of the Economic Confidence Model was international. Therefore, the business cycle I discovered was INTERNATIONAL, and by that very nature it means that when one nation peaks, another bottoms.

The ultimate revolution against monarchy that gave birth to the United States and the French Revolution, began with juries standing up against government abuse.

Did Something Happen of the ECM Turning Point

Posted Oct 28, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Did something happen on the October 28th, 2016 turning point? Just maybe what clicked yesterday was the tipping point against government. The Bundys, who were the armed antigovernment protesters led by Ammon and Ryan Bundy, were acquitted precisely going into the 28th of federal conspiracy and weapons charges. Since the Federal government’s abuse of “conspiracy” where they do not actually have to prove you committed a crime just wanted to, their conviction rate has soared to over 98%. To be acquitted of these charges is a mind-blowing event when it is virtually impossible to win in court when juries just assume the government walks on water.

The protest at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge over the government’s claim to land ended in bloodshed and the police shot and killed unarmed man getting out of his car and then were shooting at women and children in their car. The attitude of some police has degenerated to the point we are the enemy to be hunted and killed for their pleasure. The FBI effectively just murdered one individual. The FBI special agent in charge, Greg Bretzing, said, “They had ample opportunity to leave the refuge peacefully.” He continued, “And as the FBI and our partners have clearly demonstrated, actions are not without consequences.” Well the jury has acquitted those who stood up against this government’s outrageous abuse. Where the blacks are going wrong with Black Lives Matter, they are isolating themselves. They should create a movement that ALL LIVES MATTER and then there will be greater strength in numbers across all races, religions, and genders.

Why do I see this verdict on the very day of the Economic Confidence Model important and not just a passing moment? The ultimate revolution against monarchy that gave birth to the United States and the French Revolution, began with juries standing up against government abuse. It just may be that history is repeating here as well.

The most famous trial where a jury stood up refusing to find the defendant guilty in the face of a corrupt government, was that of William Penn, the founder of Pennsylvania. In 1670, William Penn held a worship service on a quiet street, which was attended by a peaceful group of fellow Quakers. Penn and another Quaker, William Mead, were arrested on a charge of disturbing the king’s peace and summoned to stand trial.

As the two men entered the courtroom and the bailiff ordered them to place their hats back on, which they had removed. Then the judge held them in contempt of court for being in the courtroom with their hats on. Penn demanded to know upon what crime he was being charged for preaching. The judge refused to supply any information whatsoever as to his crime and instead referred vaguely to the common law. When Penn protested that he was entitled to a specific indictment, he was removed from the presence of the judge and jury denied the right to defend himself. Penn could neither confront the witnesses who accused him of preaching to the Quakers nor ask them questions about their charges against him.

Finally, after the testimony the court concluded, the judge instructed the jury to find the defendants guilty as charged, dictating what verdict he expected. Penn tried to protest, but was silenced and again sent out of the courtroom. The jury, for its part, proved sympathetic to the two defendants and refused the judge’s command to find the defendants guilty just as we have seen in the Bundy case. The judge at this point became enraged and sent the jury back to reconsider their verdict. When they returned with the same verdict, the judge criticized the jury’s leader, Bushnell, and demanded “a verdict that the court will accept, and you shall be locked up without meat, drink, fire, and tobacco…We will have a verdict by the help of God or you will starve for it.”

Thereafter, the jury was sent back three more times, but returned with the same verdict. Finally, the jury refused to reconsider. The judge then fined each member of the jury forty marks and ordered them imprisoned until the fine was paid. Penn and Mead went to prison anyway, held in contempt for obeying the bailiff’s order that they put on their hats. Later, the members of the jury won a writ of habeas corpus and were released from prison. Penn and Mead left England after their release from prison, having a taste of justice, and sailed to America. (Earl Warren, “A Republic, If You Can Keep It”, p. 113-115)

The Case of William Penn was a major turning point. Just perhaps, yesterday’s verdict will be viewed as a tipping point in our struggle for freedom from a growing abusive and intrusive government that has lost its way and drunk with power.

As we now head into the next turning point next November, we will have the French and German elections. If both incumbents lose, we may be looking at the final break-up of the EU.

The Sept 30th, 2015 Turning Point in the Economic Confidence Model

 

Posted on November 27, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

The Economic Confidence Model may have pinpointed the start of the demise of Western Civilization.

On September 28, 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama had a 90-minute face off at the UN in New York. Putin petitioned Obama for the US to join Russia in against ISIS and leave Assad in power. The Obama administration, would not alter its plan to overthrow Assad, which can only destabilize the region tremendously. Hence, it was on the precise day of the ECM, September 30, 2015, when Putin began bombing anti-Assad “rebels” and ISIS. This event appears to be indeed extremely important moving forward.

Palestinian Flag Raised at UN on ECM 9/30/2015

Posted on October 1, 2015 by Martin Armstrong  

 

The number of significant events that have unfolded precisely on 9/30/2015 (2015.75) is shocking. At the United Nations, they raised the Palestinian flag for the first time. This is truly a monumental political sea change involving the Middle East. Why are these turning points so precise? This has been a deep mystery to me personally. This is why I have stated that this was never my theory of how the world works; it was my discovery. With this turning point focused in government and our political economy rather than a specific market in the private sector, we really need to invest a lot more time to research this phenomenon.