Thursday, August 7, 2014

War & Commodities


QUESTION: Hello,
I am a fan of your research and forward it to my friends when I can. Reading your site has provoked a question..If the war cycle proves true which it very well could, and we see a downturn in Q3 2015, then will commodities such as crude and gold likely spike upward, or will they be pulled down deflationary like in ’08 in your projections?
Thanks for the great work we all appreciate it.
Thank you,
AJ
War Nickels
ANSWER: One reason gold and commodities are declining during the upside of the ECM is indicative of the cycle inversion in the wings. During war, base commodities rise in value. During World War I, there was the huge commodity boom. During World War II, governments imposed wage and price controls so prices did not rise as a matter of law. We even saw nickel being replaced by silver in the 5 cent pieces during the war.
Therefore, base commodities would rise like copper and nickel, and normally we should see gold and silver rise as well. This time, since there is no gold standard and silver is not being used for coinage, we stand a chance that there will be no wage and price controls in this respect. Our greatest danger will be the tax man.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Capital Flows – Domestic v International

Posted on  by 

Cap-Flows
QUESTION: Martin,
The problem with cap money flows is that they can turn quickly.
For instance, does socrates  take in to acct the drought in the west?
If so it must know that the cattlemen are preparing for major water
deliveries. This is happening all the way the the hills of the SF bay area.
Good luck with that.
It is Irish luck John
SanFran1906EarthQuake
ANSWER: Actually yes. The Federal Reserve was first set up focused on the domestic capital flows for they caused the Panic of 1907 following the San Francisco 1906 Earthquake. The insurance companies were in the East and the claims in the West. This resulted in a capital shortage in the East and bank failures. That is WHY the Fed was created in 1913 with 12 branches and each branch had independent authority for interest rates to attract and deflect capital. It was not until FED usurped that power and vested it in Washington DC with one interest rates fits all. That to this day has not altered the domestic capital flows. We correlated the regions and have written about the Tex-New York arbitrage. When NY booms Texas is in the hole, and the greatest boom was the oil boom in Texas during the Great Depression in New York.
 What you are glossing over is that there are cycles in weather just as there are in war. They too are incorporated into the model and it is always nature first that causes reactions by mankind. Why does war unfold when our model targets 2014? Simple. The economy declines FIRST and this sets in motion rising tensions and discontent.l It is NOT war then the economy, it is the economy and then war. That means weather is also involved for as I have stated – EVERYTHING IS CONNECTED. Personal opinion and interpretations mean nothing at the end of the day. Capitalism only began because of the shortage in labor caused by the Black Death and that spread to Europe because of War in the Crimea. There was the Great Influenza after World War I that killed tens of millions of people.
ft-1998

It took me some time to understand how the computer could even predict the rise and fall of nations. This is NOT ME with some lucky opinion. The computer predicted every conflict with amazing accuracy based upon rapid shifts in capital flows. I came to understand the mechanism only after advising the Universal Bank of Lebanon. They discovered a ledger with the prices of the Lebanese pound recorded since the mid 19th century. They asked if we could construct a model on their currency back in the 1980s. We did. The computer came out and said 8 days until the currency collapsed. I personally thought it was crazy. But the client was paying me to report what the model said – NOT MY PERSONAL OPINION.

I was embarrassed to say 8 days. I had no choice. I did so NOT knowing the fundamentals at work at all. I expected them to say you and your computer are nuts. Instead, they asked what would be the best currency to move into? I told them the Swiss franc.They were calm in asking advice. Only after the fact did I understand why for they were seeing capital flows shift ahead of civil war, which the computer pinpointed to the day. If you know you will start a civil war, what do you do? You move your capital to safe ground. That is HOW the computer picked up events. It does not need to know the fundamental or who is doing what – it tracks the movements and people react in anticipation.
In 1985, under the leadership of Geagea and Hobeika, they split entirely from the Phalangists and other groups to form an independent militia which was the dominant force in most Maronite areas. The Command Council then elected Hobeika to be LF President, and he appointed Geagea to be LF Chief of Staff. In January 1986, Geagea and Hobeika’s relationship broke down over Hobeika’s support for the pro-Syrian Tripartite Accord, and an internal civil war began. The Geagea-Hobeika Conflict resulted in 800 to 1000 casualties before Geagea secured himself as LF leader and Hobeika fled. Hobeika formed the Lebanese Forces – Executive Command which remained allied with Syria until the end of the war.
By 1998, I was an expert. I came to understand capital flows and was able to articulate the events on the horizon in the capital flows regarding Russia that would result in the collapse. That became the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management. This war cycle is doing the same thing. It is possible ONLY because of the collapse in liquidity, the hunting of taxes that is shrinking the world economy, and the excessive socialism that is collapsing government as its pensions and debt become unsupportable.
After 911, the government used this information from our model observations to search to see who moved money in advance and who bought market positions the day before. I had communications on this to explain how it worked. After all, the CIA wanted our model after it pinpointed the Russian collapse in 1998. They suddenly saw not forecasting markets, but geopolitical events. That was important info to them.
So yes. Capital Flows shift and they are picked up equally rapidly on our models. Sorry – they are just far better indicators than personal opinions. You can think some fundamental operates in total isolation. But farmers would not be in a drought in the first place if it was not cyclical. This is the entire problem. Looking at everything as just personal Irish luck prevents you from opening your mind to entertain that just perhaps we are NOT the masters of our entire economy. We may be just a fly on an elephants ass with no concept that it is even an elephant. As long as you attribute everything to dumb luck, then you should fund me at a casino and see if that luck holds up. Sorry – there is far more order hidden behind the superficial chaos you think is random.

Gold may not reach its final peak until 2025


Beware 2025


As an avid reader of your blog I have the following question:
I follow the rationale for the coming capital concentration (and bubbles) in US stocks and then gold into 2016/7.  Once the bubble for gold bursts where do you see the capital flowing?  Is that when you foresee an even greater credit deflation meltdown than what occurred in Autumn 2008?
Best Wishes,
AR
1-ECM 2032
ANSWER: We are most likely going to see a financial crisis that engulf the pensions and the sovereign debt crisis. The preliminary target seems to be really off in 2025. However, 2020 will be the first big crack.

We seem to be headed for the electronic currency as the first fix. But we will see this migrate to the replacement of the reserve currency, which I believe will be a basket of the major currencies administered by some agency, I sure hope will not be the IMF. However, I would bet against my luck on that one.
Gold may not reach its final peak until 2025. This will be a reflection not so much for gold as an investment, but as simply a reflection of the entire financial system.

Germany - the next pin ?



Sanction Against Russia Set the Stage for the Next Real Big Crash



ECM-Wave-2011-2020
This entire war of sanction against Russia will contribute greatly to the economic decline next year from 2015.75. Even the US economic growth is slow and unemployment is more than twice as high as it was when the Great Depression began when it was just 5% back then compared to 10%+ currently. With China, emerging markets, Europe, and Russia all in a desperate declining phase economically, the USA is the last pin holding up the world economy. This pin will be pulled next year and from there into 2020, things can only get much worse.
The sanctions against Russia will push economic growth in Germany to zero. The Ukraine crisis is seems to have been felt even in the first quarter. In the coming years, Germany could still experience significantly larger problems economically from the sanctions. German Economics Minister Gabriel has apparently stopped a business of Rheinmetall with Russia. The company will now lose 100 million euros.
Against the USA, Russia is now looking at imposing capital controls with American dollar transactions. That will only hurt the Russian economy even more.
The Americans have an extensive product range of hard drinks. If the Russians now start to discover impurities that could give the Russian industry a boost. In the U.S., the Americans have banned the best cigars from their market due to the Cuba sanctions. (Photo: myamericandream)
Meanwhile, the Russian authorities continue their counterattack against Western Imports. The Americans have an extensive product range of hard drinks. If the Russians now start to discover impurities that could give the Russian industry a boost. McDonald’s consumer protection authority now wants to stop the importation of precious whiskeys from the USA. In the U.S., the Americans have banned the best cigars from their market due to the Cuba sanctions. The sanctions cost government nothing, they shift the burden to the private sector and always cost jobs on both sides.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

The Next Plague Due 2019 ?

Ebola Virus – The Next Plague Due 2019?


Ebola
QUESTION: Hello Martin
Please inform if the spread of the Ebola virus is showing up your viewing of the current cycles.
B
ANSWER: This Cycle of War has been incredible for it is linked at the core with weather, economics, plagues, and natural disasters. You cannot look at war in isolation for its cause is rooted also within human nature.
The Romans were great secretaries and tended to record events of this nature. When we analyzed the history of plagues, we found a strong correlation to Pi (Ï€). The span of just the major plagues recorded by the Romans was 474 years divided by 6 events produces 79 and dividing that by Pi 3.14 gives us 25.15 years. This is very close to the 8.6 frequency (3 x 8.6 = 25.8). Testing this frequency brought us to the Black Death/Plague of the 14th Century, the Great Influenza of the mid-19th Century that killed many on my own family, the influenza at World War I, the Malaria epidemic of 1940, and the next target being 2019.
EBOLA VIRUS

Whether or not this is the next great plague or we are waiting for it, it is too difficult to say but we are in the red zone for the next one is due. If it is Ebola, it will subside at first and remain contained to its region with devastating results in Africa. But it will then start to spread internationally by 2016 and then reach the climax in just 3.14 years to 2019. So this may be early for the Ebola to be it. However, it seems to qualify with a 60%-90% mortality rate that is up there with the Black Death.
The outbreak is the largest and deadliest on record, with more than 670 deaths and more than 1,200 infections in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Fatality rates for Ebola have been as high as 90% in past outbreaks, according to the World Health Organization.
Health experts at the CDC have been working with African nations since the Ebola outbreak began in March. But officials are on alert now, after news that a man with Ebola was able to board a plane and arrive in Lagos, the capital of Nigeria. He later died. Two Americans providing humanitarian assistance in West Africa have become infected with Ebola. Family members of one of them, Kent Brantly, a doctor, had been living with him in Africa, but returned to the USA before he began showing symptoms.
Economically, the Black Death killed about 50% of the European population and created a shortage in labor. That came from Asia brought by the Tartars to Crimea (Ukraine). They catapulted the dead bodies into the forts of the Europeans who fled taking back with them. This resulted in altering the economy creating wages as landlords now competed for labor and serfdom came to an end in Western Europe (Russia continued into the 19th century).
Plagues have drastically altered the course of our economic history. Such events over the centuries cannot be ignored. They have often inspired war and show a strong correlation with such events. From the American perspective, both World War I and II contributed greatly to the construction of American wealth. In both cases, while Europe was running around blowing each other’s brains out, American factories were busy at work producing the means to accomplish the event.

Currency Devaluation and impact on other assets

Argentina Defaults – Assets Rise?


ARGSTK-M 7-20-2014

Argentina is moving into default and they could trigger bondholder claims between $25 to $30 billion. This is an amount equal to all its foreign-currency reserves. True,  if overdue interest on Argentina’s dollar-denominated debt due 2033 is not paid by July 30, then provisions in bonds known as cross-default clauses would allow the nation’s other debt holders to also demand their money back immediately.

So why has the Argentine stock market been blasting upward for the last 25 months? This is a classic capital response that is precisely the same that is argued for a hyperinflation. If a country defaults, its currency declines. However, domestically, tangible assets rise for everything advances under such a scenario. Those who think capital is wrong just do not understand capital flows. This is the eternal battle between PUBLIC and PRIVATE assets being displayed for all to see.

ARGFOR-M 7-20-2014

Here too we are seeing November as a very critical turning point. This is showing up in absolutely every market around the world. This is how money really moves. If you think this is dumb, well you better go back to school.

Dow-GreatDepression

The entire devaluation of the dollar by FDR in 1933 produced the same result. As the currency declined assets rise. FDR’s Brains Trust disagreed. FDR listened to George Warren and noticed that Britain recovered when then defaulted on their debt in 1931. So pay attention. International law may mean nothing at the end of the day because Argentina will not be alone.

This is that international value that comes into play how everyone vies assets in terms of their own sense of values expressed in their home currency. I will try to put books to together on how capital really moves under these various conditions. Just have to find someone interested in this subject and a good editor to put help bring this all together. I have so many projects and limited amount of time. But yes – this is something on my wish list to get accomplished.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Crude Oil- rally into 2017

Crude Oil & The Future



CRUDE-Y 7-9-2014
The USA is amazingly going to produce more oil that Saudi Arabia and Russia making it the largest producer in the world according to all the data so far with just Four years into the shale revolution.When that happens and by how much, is still debatable. The estimates that depend on uncertain factors ranging from progress in drilling technology to the availability of financing and the price of oil itself.
Is there a cost? I reported from direct sources in Pennsylvania that the number of earthquakes in the region of fracking have increased tremendously. The water supply has been contaminated and to prevent the issue from getting a lot of press and lawsuits, the drilling firms now supply water to all the homes delivered in by truck.
Squinting into a laptop perched on the back of his pickup, Austin Holland searches for a signal from a coffee-can-sized sensor buried under the grassy prairie.
Now in Oklahoma there too has been a large increase in earthquakes that have for the first time exceeded California. They are calling this an “unprecedented earthquake epidemic” in the state.It seems on the surface that pumping wastewater from oil and gas drilling back into the Earth has contaminated ground water and may also set off earthquakes.
McCain-Graham

Nevertheless, oil peaked intraday in 2009 but the highest yearly close came in 2011. It is poised to rally into 2017 and it appears this is lining up with our war models. We will be looming at this market and other in the near future. The patterns are interesting and the fundamentals may speak of increased supply in the USA, but the price may be driven by other events especially when we have people like Lindsey Graham willing to kill everyone’s children for his personal hatred of the US constitution and the world. South Carolina should be forced to pay retribution payment to all the families destroyed by Graham. He has used scare tactics every time swearing we will be attacked if we do not act. Put him in the front line please since he wants to invade Iraq again this July. Neither Graham nor McCain ever saw a country they would not invade.