World War III & a Pipeline

Posted on December 4, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

To understand what is really Behind the Curtain regarding the Middle East, ISIS, Turkey, and the USA strategic attempt to reduce Russia, we must start back in 2009 when Qatar proposed a pipeline plan to Assad to send its natural gas to Europe via Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan. Assad refused it and this has been the entire pretend reason why the Obama Administration wanted to invade Syria. The reason for the refusal was to protect the interests of Assad’s long-time ally, Russia, which is Europe’s biggest natural gas supplier based upon all the data.

It was just one year after Qatar’s proposal, that Assad began negotiations for another pipeline plan with Iran, which would carry Iranian gas to Europe across Iraq and Syria. Russia endorsed this project since it would clearly have more control over gas flow rather that the US linked Qatar. This agreement would strategically place control of the gas flow to Europe in Russia’s hands. Consequently, the Iranian pipeline became a priority for Russia. Since Damascus and Moscow working together to block the Qatar pipeline and create the alternative Iranian pipeline, this created the seeds for World War III.

Clearly, Obama has targeted Russia from the outset. There was a meeting between Obama and Putin at the United Nations where Putin tried to get Obama on side with Syria against ISIS. Obama rejected the proposal. So when Russian forces entered Syria om the ECM Turning point to the day, this was a ominous event. Russia was not only backing the Assad regime, it was also backing the Iranian pipeline.

Russia’s economy is mostly based on its energy exports. Putin occasionally threaten European countries with cutting off the energy supply and this has been the potential that has set in motion all this chaos. While Russia has the largest gas reserves in the world, the second is actually Iran. Even Turkey is also importing some of its energy from Russia, and some from Iran. It has been buying oil at a discount from ISIS.

Therefore, with the construction of the Iranian pipeline via Iraq and Syria is completed, Europe’s dependence on Russia would continue. This was also why Obama was lifting sanction on Iran in an effort to break that alliance. Obama has been attempting to isolate Russia to prevent its control of the main energy market into Europe. This is why Russia is backing Syria, Iran and Iraq as well. Russia’s presence in Syria is aimed obviously at something more than merely supporting Assad. Russia is acting within its economic self-interest to maintain controlling its energy pipelines which also went through Ukraine. You have to understand what is going on behind the curtain to grasp the seriousness developing in Syria.

The USA is way out of line. This attack on Syria is benefiting ISIS and then Turkey is buying cheap oil from ISIS funding the very rise of terrorism. The French journalistNicolas Hénin who was a hostage of ISIS, has come out and stated that bombing Syria is benefiting ISIS. On this count, Putin is absolutely correct and the military policies of the Obama Administration are without any coherent objectives since removing Assad will hand Syria to ISIS.

The FED v ECB

Posted on December 2, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: If the Fed is so smart and understands the problem with low/negative interest rates, then why didn’t it hike rates in September?  Better yet, why didn’t they raise rates YEARS ago?  The Fed has kept rates near zero for seven years but now suddenly realizes that this is a problem?

I am surprised that you think so highly of them.  The Fed consists of a bunch of academics with no real-world experience, no different than the ECB.

REPLY: Your bias and prejudice blind you. The ECB is run by Mario Draghi who is ex-Goldman Sachs. Mario Draghi faces a currency that is collapsing and a power structure that is fundamentally flawed. This is entirely different from the problems facing the Fed. Europe is in deep recession that is intensely deflationary. That is not the case yet in the USA.

Yellen has inherited a nightmare. It was Ben Bernanke who made the mess we are in today. He lowered rates, bought in long-term bonds the Fed cannot now sell and must wait for them to simply mature. Yellen is trapped for she cannot reverse QE and sell the bonds Bernanke bought and she is facing a meltdown in pension funds because rates are too low for too long. Yellen has no escape. You are also blind to how politics functions and all you are doing is listening to the bullshit that is spun by pretend analysts who know nothing about what really goes on behind the curtain.

The mere fact that the IMF came out publicly to ask the Fed not to raise rates in June was a political maneuver to counteract Yellen. Things of this nature are discussed behind the curtain – never in front. The IMF turned to the press to STOP Yellen because she would have raised rates back in June. It was  Ben Bernanke who listened to the bankers and created insanity.

It is clear that Ben Bernanke lacked any experience as an academic to run the Fed. He became a professor at Harvard after graduating. If you have no real world experience, you will never understand reality. Book smart does not cut it in finance.

Bernanke bought in 30 year bonds to help reduce the competition with mortgages and to inject cash into the system from a very book perspective looking at the economy in theory, not in reality.. The bankers then complained they needed excess reserve facility to earn money if they had no more bonds. Creating this facility defeated the very purpose of QE and ensured that there would be no inflation for the banks did not lend the money out. The money created did not stimulate for two reasons. First, the Chinese sold their long-term debt holdings and reduced their maturity. Then the excess reserves allowed banks to park money rather than lend it. Dropping rates to virtually zero and paying the banks 0.25% defeated everything intended to restart liquidity and inflation.

Hence, the Fed is in danger of losing its sovereignty allowing itself to delay its domestic policy objectives for international concerns. Your bias and prejudice prevent you from even seeing what the crisis is all about..

 BTW – that highway bill has emerged from a House-Senate conference committee that will pay for the roads by reducing the 6 percent annual dividend paid to the banks on Fed stock. The Fed should now eliminate the excess reserve facility and stop the welfare for the banks paying them for money the Fed does not even use.

China’s Renminbi Reserve Status

Posted on December 2, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to give the renminbi (yuan) a political victory by including the Chinese currency in the list of reserve currencies, few in the West even understand what this means. Including the renminbi in the SDR economically means nothing for it will not dethrone the dollar any more than the other currencies in the SDR, The only way to dethrone the dollar is to provide a deep currency where big money can park.’

However, the black market in China known as the shadow banking system has indeed been shut down. This has been done to cut off capital out flow. Making the renminbi part of the SDR by September 2016, means the outflow of capital can resume. China’s effort to support its markets has followed the same general path as Japan whereby the government discourages short selling. Restricting free investment may have the opposite impact and China must float its currency to survive.

Ebola will initially fade but be back in full force in 2016 going into 2020

Ebola Returning?

Posted on November 28, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT:
Marty In your report on diseases you had mentioned that Ebola will initially fade but be back in full force in 2016 going into 2020 with devastating results. Looks like you are right again. Please see report from CNN about Ebola coming back to Liberia. http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/21/africa/liberia-ebola-return/index.html Would Ebola be restricted to Africa or are we going to see worldwide outbreak this time.
Thanks
SJ

REPLY: It is amazing to me how outside of physics, the world remains ignorant of cycles which control absolutely everything right down to the cycle of life. Ebola like everything else conforms to cycles. It will not stay confined to Africa. The importation of refugees into Europe will also provide a carrier for disease. Politicians are totally ignorant of life in general. It was Gaëtan Dugas (February 20, 1953 – March 30, 1984) who was a Canadian employee flight attendant of Air Canada who brough AIDS from Africa to North America. It was the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who traced it all back to this one individual they called “patient zero”. Despite the fact this has been disputed, the point is that someone, if not Dugas, crossed borders transporting the disease with them.
Another tremendous risk is criminal prosecutions in the USA. Anyone charged with a crime takes precedent over anything else. There is no question that with all the cross-border connections taking place right now, it is impossible to contain any disease to one area.

The Sept 30th, 2015 Turning Point in the Economic Confidence Model

 

Posted on November 27, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

The Economic Confidence Model may have pinpointed the start of the demise of Western Civilization.

On September 28, 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama had a 90-minute face off at the UN in New York. Putin petitioned Obama for the US to join Russia in against ISIS and leave Assad in power. The Obama administration, would not alter its plan to overthrow Assad, which can only destabilize the region tremendously. Hence, it was on the precise day of the ECM, September 30, 2015, when Putin began bombing anti-Assad “rebels” and ISIS. This event appears to be indeed extremely important moving forward.

Year end support levels - Gold 1043, Euro 103.65

Gold & the Dollar Surge

 

Posted on November 27, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

 

A ton of emails are flooding in asking what to do with gold since it made new lows after yet another false rally. I appreciate all the people who have been hurt by the goldbugs. Just remember, what goes up MUST come down. Even if gold reached the $5,000 level, it may do so for one nanosecond. Whatever the high it will not rise to such a level and stay there. We are looking at the collapse of the world monetary system. This will be a transition trade only.

If gold closes below the 1043 level at year end, you can bet on new lows next year in 2016. We will most likely see a real surge in the dollar yet with the Euro collapsing. So pay attention also to the year-end closing for the Euro. If that is under 10365, the dollar surge is underway.

Population Decline in Industrial Countries Requires Immigration?

Posted on November 26, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

The United Nations projects that over the next 50 years, the population in the industrialized world will (US-Europe-Japan) will DECLINE, not expand. The population is suffering from growing old and the youth are so burdened with taxes they are not getting married (marriages off by 50%) and are not having children. The decline in birth rates and the migration of people from the outer regions into the old core is typical.

The UN is now supporting immigration to keep the pension funds alive. They have stated that immigration now “require[s] comprehensive reassessments of many established policies and programmes, including those relating to international migration.”