QUESTION: Martin, as all members do, I really do thank you and appreciate you for your knowledge and insight. I am a business owner – Real Water and do approximately $10 million in annual sales right now. As a concerned citizen, I have also run for political office and was elected to the Nevada State Assembly in 2015. With Republican control, our legislature pushed through the largest tax increase in our State’s history in the name of more money for education (I led the opposition against the tax, but failed in preventing it). Of course, our latest school ratings came out and we are still ranked at the bottom – 50th. More government is NOT the solution!
I completely understand we are headed for a financial crash and burn. You have frequently stated that the only reason you are doing what you are doing is for your posterity. Other than personal preparation, extra food, don’t be in bonds, etc., what do you believe is the most beneficial thing we can do to help our country come out of the crash and burn with more freedom and limited government (like our Founders so emphatically intended) as opposed to the other potential of totalitarianism that you frequently warn us about? What is the most effective way to rally the troops so to say to help push our civilization in the proper direction?
To an elevated lifestyle,
ANSWER:The Government always thinks that throwing more money at something make it better. I have NEVER seen where that has EVER corrected any such trend. The problem lies in the total mismanagement. Governments are simply incapable of operating even a bubblegum machine. They completely fail to understand the economy, human nature, or society as a whole. The only way to actually correct such a problem is to privatize. That installs actual management and employees must actually perform. Government unions demand benefits and they negotiate with themselves. This is why the entire socialist agenda is collapsing.
I had a friend who was a postmaster. He had to tell an employee he would be checking on them a day before to ensure they were doing their job. The union made them provide notice so the employee would not actually be caught doing anything. This is how government unions have destroyed themselves and society. This is what we are headed into a crash and burn because governments do not respect the people and assume we are an endless supply of revenue.
All government agencies should be privatized and then the services they provide would actually work. Going to the New Jersey Division of Motor Vehicles was a case study in how not to run a government. The people were nasty, you would wait in line and they would be having a conversation with the next employee about what they would do after work and actually make you wait even 5 minutes while they did this right in front of your face. The attitude was WTF do you want now. Just absolutely nasty and hostile. No supervision and nobody even forces them to actually work. Always a horrible experience – not just one time. Ask a question and you NEVER got a straight or correct answer.
It is a structural management problem. There is no accountability and you can look at any government agency and you will see the same pattern. Increase the budget and there is NEVER any actually change. They cannot improve because there is a lack of management ability.
What does the Crash & Burn look like? It all depends upon how long we have to wait to achieve it. If we get the start of a Crash & Burn in 2021, then there is real hope of a soft-landing. If we are looking at stalling and refusing to change as taxes continue to rise, we will see that last wave of totalitarianism and then what comes AFTER 2032 is a very hard landing. That type of decline historically results in civil war and/or revolution.
All I can offer is what has happened before historically. My personal opinion would be just a guess and that is not what clients want to hear. So the sooner the better and the longer this is stalled the worse it gets.
This hostile attack against Trump is symbolic of the bureaucracy fighting to keep its power. They think if they can get Trump out of office, they will return it back to normal with a career politician. They are seriously wrong for the people voted for Trump because they are fed up with the system as is. This was not a personal popularity contest that Trump won. It is the rising tension of the people. There is not going back. This can only lead to a confrontation between the left and right. Choose where you want to like based upon the political orientation of that area. The area I live in was conservative which voted overwhelmingly for Trump. That is a bit safer than a left area for then they ultimate come after you and see you are the problem why things are not going their way.
Malaysia Looking to file Lawsuit Against Goldman Sachs?
Posted Jun 18, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
May was an important turning point in Southeast Asia. The corruption that has engulfed the previous Malaysian government centered around a sovereign wealth fund involving Goldman Sachs has rocked the entire Malaysian peninsula. The national debt, which was believed to have been $170 billion, appears to be more like $250 billion of 80% if the national GDP.
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was sworn in on May 10th. When his aides first entered the government offices, they were confronted with a shocking sight. There were garbage bags filled with shredded documents intermixed with left-over food half eaten thrown everywhere. It was clear, the previous government sought to destroy all the evidence of their corruption.
The new finance minister discovered computers that even the highest-ranking bureaucrats could not access. Computers were set up to prevent access by anyone other than one or two people. Evidence of massive corruption was what turned the election on May 9th, 2018.
Goldman Sachs’ role, I wrote back in 2015, has been highly criticized in the Malaysian media and political circles after it emerged that 1MDB sovereign wealth fund paid hundreds of millions of dollars to the bank for helping it raise $6.5billionin three bond deals in 2012 and 2013. Goldman Sachs earned around $590 million in fees pluscommissions and expenses from underwriting the bonds, according toReuters. The reported fees are highly excessive, nearing 10% when such fees are typically only 1% in bondunderwriting.
There is now talk about filing suit against Goldman Sachs for its role in this scandal. The likelihood of filing a lawsuit against them in New York City being successful is probably zero. They will have to deal with the most corrupt court perhaps in the world that is notorious for protecting its local banks – Southern District of New York and the Second Circuit. My recommendation is to petition the Supreme Court to bring the suit in Washington DC that they will NEVER receiver a fair trial in New York City and they should get on the phone to Donald Trump to start applying political pressure.
On the November election in California, enough signatures were gathered just over 400,000 to put a question on the ballot – should California be split into three states? The discontent in California is certainly regional. The proposal for three states would break California up into North, South, and just California.
Tim Draper has been the primary bankroller behind the division idea. He managed to collect at least 402,000 signatures to divide California into three parts. Northern California will be composed of the region from Oregon down to San Francisco. Southern California would include Fresno, Bakersfield, and San Diego. Then there will be California between these two regions which will be with its capital at Los Angeles. Effectively, three capital cities would emerge, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego. Anyone who has been to California knows that indeed there are three distinct cultures.
Silicon Valley is a region in the southern San Francisco Bay Area referring to the Santa Clara Valley, which serves as the global center for high technology, venture capital, innovation, and social media. This will be part of Northern California leaving behind the craziness of the Los Angeles politics that has far too often swamped the philosophies of Northern California.
This is once again part of the separatist movement that is rising everywhere around the world. It is all part of the same cycle of Civil Unrest.
Posted Jun 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong The pitch by various ancestry operations is to send in your DNA by spitting into a vile and they will tell you your ethnic background. Sounds nice, but they then keep it. Why? The greatest danger is that such info can be turned over to the government at any moment. Giving up your DNA is actually giving up your entire family. People have been arrested because their DNA has been traced thanks to some family member who the government has in their database.
But the risk of a crime is not really the big issue for most people. The real risk is that insurance companies can deny insurance based upon getting your DNA covertly and determining that you are at high risk of heart attack or stroke. Canadian lawmakers passed the Genetic Non-Discrimination Act on March 8, 2017. This law would make it illegal for employers or insurance companies in Canada to discriminate against people based on their genetic information.
Back in 2008, Congress passed the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act of 2008, which prohibits discrimination against Americans based on their genetic information in both health insurance (Title I) and employment (Title II). The danger presented is if you “voluntarily” give up your DNA, they can argue you “waived” all your rights. Then Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, The Affordable Care Act, the Americans with Disabilities Act all are supposed to protect you from discrimination based upon your DNA.
You should know that last year on August 22nd, 2017, the United States District Court of the District of Columbia ruled that the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), should reconsider the rule that states it is permissible for employer-sponsored wellness programs to offer inducements in exchange for employees’ health information. The cap for these inducements is 30% of the cost of health insurance for a single person.
They are claiming that the 30% cap is to maintain the voluntary nature of workplace wellness programs. They are only allowed to gather employees’ health information IF participation in the wellness program is voluntary. In AARP v. EEOC (EEOC & DNA), the American Association for Retired Persons challenged EEOC’s rule allowing the 30% inducement, arguing the cap is in no way voluntary as it is high and, therefore, coercive. The court decision stated that EEOC had not adequately explained why it concluded that the 30% cap was reasonable to maintain the voluntariness of wellness programs. The judge did not immediately call for EEOC to strike the rule but has directed the agency to reconsider the rule and develop a reasonable explanation for the connection between voluntariness and the 30% cap. That is DISCRIMINATION based upon your DNA and people need to be very careful because insurance companies are NOTORIOUSLY dishonest!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NEVER voluntarily give up your DNA to anyone!!!!!!!!!!! These companies change their policies all the time. They call it “updating” but that means when you turn over your DNA and they said they would not resell that info, here comes a policy statement that retroactively changes the terms you agree to way back when. We are used to this Ex Post Facto changes in policy from Facebook, Google, and countless others. It is a HUGE risk when it comes to personal info and especially DNA.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am curious given your passion has been history you have explored things nobody seems to have. What has impressed me is how you pull history together in such a logical way you make it come alive. My question is the origin of Germany. We were taught here in school that Germany traces its origins back to the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest in the year 9AD. What is your take on this subject if you care to answer.?
ANSWER: Yes, I am aware that Germany traces its origins back to the Battle of the Teutoburg Forestof 9 AD, but it is really political propaganda. It was not until 1871 when Germany became a nation-state. That is when most of the German states unified into the Prussian-dominated German Empire. Nonetheless, the famous battle in which Germanic tribes annihilated the advancing Roman army has been used for political agendas over the centuries. The battle is actually believed to have taken place near Kalkriese, northeast of Osnabrück, but the battlefield has not been confirmed. The Germans did ambush the Romans in a tight geographic area between a hill and a moor. It is well documented as a disaster even in Roman literature. Some 18,000 Roman troops were slaughtered by the Cheruscan Chieftain Arminius and his allies whose name was changed to Hermann to make him a local hero.
Arminius has been propagandized as Hermann the German and this battle has been interpreted as being the birth of Germany as a nation-state. All of the coins found at the location confirm the time period. The coins discovered at the location to the early years of the first century AD during the time of Emperor Augustus. There were also coins of late Republican time period that were still in circulation. However, we date a site by the latest coins discovered.
The defeat of three Roman legions under the command of Rome’s Germania governor and General Publius Quinctilius Varus by Arminius is a true account. It is also a fact that the Romans never again attempted to establish settlements in Germany following the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest. He was the son of Sextus Quinctilius Varus who was quaestor in 49 BC and defended Corfinium when Julius Caesar(100-44 BC) besieged the city during the civil war against Pompey. Sextus was forced to surrender the town, was pardoned by Caesar, but immediately betrayed him and fled to Africa, where Caesar’s deputy Curio was fighting against Pompey’s allies. Sextus did his best to win over Curio’s soldiers to abandon Caesar’s cause. Despite the fact that Curio was defeated in Africa, Caesar won the civil war. Sextus did not return to Rome since it was not Caesar’s policy to pardon a person twice. It is not known whether he was involved in the plot to assassinate Caesar. We do know that Sextus was involved at the battlefield of Philippi, where the new leaders of the Caesarian party, Marc Antony, and Octavian, defeated the last republicans oligarchs. Sextus then asked one of his freedmen to kill him.
How his son Publius Quinctilius Varus rose to power under Augustus is not known. Clearly, he was not held to account for the sins of his father. He clearly accepted the end of the Roman Republic, in contrast to his father. What is known from that period is that the Civil War did divide families as well. Publius, nonetheless, became a personal friend of Octavian/Augustus and associate of Tiberius. He was given Syria as his province in 7 BC during which time he issued this provincial coin. While serving as the governor of Syria, Varus guarded the borders against the menace of Parthia and violently suppressed revolts in Judaea and Samaria, when it was learned that they had been apportioned to Herod Archelaus in the will of Herod the Great. The military operations in these regions are sometimes known as “Varus’ War.” Varus, however, is best known for his role in events after he returned from Syria and took up a command in Germany in 6 AD. During 9 AD, he led three legions against the German tribes at the Teutoberg Forest. He was killed and the legions annihilated in one of the greatest military disasters of Roman history. There is a surviving gravestone in the Bonn museum which clearly confirms that there was indeed a Varus war supporting the Roman accounts. We do know that the event took place.
The background of the German hero, Arminius (Hermann), is not widely explained in German folklore. Arminius had actually received a Roman military education and had Roman citizenship. He even commanded an auxiliary German cavalry attached to the Roman army before deserting and switching his allegiance. We do not know why he took this step. Some believe that he merely entered the Roman military to learn the tactics to defeat them. Clearly, Arminius who has been portrayed as the heroic liberator who created the German nation was crafted by Martin Luther to support the liberation from the Roman Catholic Church. The story supported his political cause. During the mid-20th century, the National Socialists in Germany further enhanced this concept during the Third Reich raising Arminius as the .heroic liberator who created Germany. This myth has been used over the centuries whenever it was needed to support the rise of nationalism.
Exactly where the battle took place is not precisely known. The Kalkriese Museum was to begin a three-year excavation project to try and get some answers. This is where numismatic archaeological evidence is playing an important part in the current research. Coins help to date an event, but a battlefield would have more coins than usual. There is no absolute proof where the battle took place at this location. There have been no inscriptions of the 19th or 18th or 17th legions discovered.
The new excavation authorized in 2017 hopes to discover some piece of a helmet with an inscription or a plaque with the name of a unit. There are also stamped artillery bolts that can often be used to also confirm legions and/or events. The Roman would use a slingshot to propel bullets. Typically, these bullets are marked allowing for the identification often of specific legions.
Coins are a very important part of documenting history. There are bronze coins of Augustus that have countermarks “VAR” which has often been attributed to Publius Quinctilius Varus. As pictured above, Varus had the authority to issue local provincial coins in Africa Proconsularis as well as in Syria. His name appears in the legend and in some cases also with his bust. Since he had the authority to issue local coins, he may have had the authority to countermark imperial coins that were worn in the West as well, yet no such local coin exit issued by him in either Gallia or the Rhine border region. Therefore, local coins issued in the name of Roman officials seem to be common in Eastern Provinces under Augustus most likely because of the difference in culture led them to retain their own monetary units.
Nonetheless, there are countermarks known in the Syrian province on local provincial coins when worn that have been attributed to Varus. These are noted in Greek Imperial Countermarksnumbers 658 and 659 that show “VAR”,”PVAR” and “QVAR” inscriptions. These appear to coincide with Varus’ term of office as governor of Syria. This has been used to infer that the “VAR” countermarks on bronze coins of Augusts found in the region of Germany are attributed to Varus. It was a common practice to counter-stamp bronze coins that were worn. In some instances, the coins are devalued. Here is actually a barbarous imitation of a Roman sestertius of Claudius (41-54AD) that is severely worn and the coin was a Sestertius with the countermark “DV” meaning it was devalued to a Dupondius – half the original value. Therefore, the “VAR” countermark is most likely certifying the value remained unchanged.
It was also a common practice for the legionaries to burying their money in the ground before a battle. These are hoards not of individuals, but the pay for the army. The dead would have been stripped of their armor and any coins would have been taken and the bodies were left to rot in the forest and provide food for the animals.
In early 2017 a hoard of more than 200 silver Roman coins, all dated prior to 9 C.E., were found in the Kalkriese area where the battle is suspected to have taken place. This was probably not the funds buried by the legion representing their pay. It is unlikely that Varus possessed any authority to actually strike coins as a moving military mint. That has been a common practice mostly of usurpers and during periods of civil war. In such cases, the actual dies have also been discovered. Here is a die of Gordian I (238AD) who survived only 21 days.
During 2016, University of Osnabrück archaeologists discovered eight Roman gold aurei east of Bramsche. This opened up the speculation that perhaps Bramsche might be the sight of the battle. The coins were of the early type struck prior to 9AD depicting Augustus on the obverse, with his grandsons Gaius and Lucius on the reverse. There were some other minor bronze denomination coins also found at this sight. Bramsche has been nicknamed field of gold by the local citizens who have found gold coins in this area before. Back in 1987, there was the discovery of 162 silver coins and three Roman slingshots bullets. None of the coins discovered at this site date after 9AD. However, other than the slingshot bullets, there has been no military objects found at Bramsche. Some argue that the gold coins were lost by officers attempting to flee the massacre.
Germanicus (15 BC – 19 AD) who was the grandson of Marc Antony and Son of Antonia, he was, therefore, the brother of future Emperor Claudius and the father of future Emperor Caligula, obtained his name for he led the legions to Germany after the defeat of Varus. Germanicus’ troops campaigned against the Germanic tribes for six years during the aftermath of the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest. According to contemporary accounts, Germanicus found the battlefield and buried the human remains which included skulls nailed to trees.
Now, the question is rather simple. Is the reinvention of a former Roman soldier Arminius transformed into Hermann and founder of Germany, which did not become a nation-state until 1871, a unique rewrite of history? The answer is absolutely no way. Here is a gold medallion of Constantine I the Great (305-337AD), the man who declared Christianity the official state relgion of the Roman Empire. Look closely and you will see that Constantine pictures himself with the Roman god Sol. To the pagans, this was a political propaganda piece. Sol Invictuswas becoming virtually the supreme god.
Constantine’s propaganda was all about defeating the reforms of Diocletian who established the Tetrarchy whereby emperors would retire and be replaced with their second in command. Therefore, picturing himself with Sol was a political statement suggesting that there should be only ONEemperor. Constantine supported Christianity using the same political agenda that there was one god so there should be only one emperor.
Those who seek power often rewrite history to argue what they are doing is really being heroic like some former person in history. They change names, facts, and even timelines to justify their actions. It has been a practice that prevails throughout history.
QUESTION: Hi Martin Was curious if you could address what Socrates has popped up on the last report….of a “Knee Jerk Low” this quarter. Is this a possibility that we should be on guard for? A very thankful follower of your work!! C
ANSWER: The terminology I have developed is unique and it comes from actually studying market behavior. I have explained that reaction is limited to the time period of three or less. Move beyond 3 years and you are changing trend. The Knee-Jerk events can be highs or lows. They refect choppy markets. They are confined to one unit of time. Here is Singapore share index. Note that there were three back-to-back Knee-Jerk reactions. This is what the Global Market Watch is forecasting. Not necessarily a change in trend, just a choppy move normally in the opposite direction.
The weather is still unusually cold in the north. In Newfoundland, they woke up to a foot of snow. In Iceland, they just had the coldest day in 100 years. It has long been understood that to create an Ice Age, the artic actually should be ice-free. The Arctic Ocean is the smallest and shallowest of the world’s five major oceans. We have been warning that our models projected that the energy output of the sun would drop into the end of this Economic Confidence Model wave 2032. This has now been confirmed as the energy output has turned down sharply since 2015.
Here is the picture that started the whole Global Warming propaganda. Yet while they pretend that if the Arctic Ocean melted the sea levels would rise and flood placed even like Miami. However, the Arctic Ocean has been free of ice historically many times. The passage through the ice has historically come and gone. The first to actually sail through the water was the Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen’s ship which traveled East to West between 1903 and 1906. This idea that the Arctic Ocean is always frozen over is simply not correct.
There are two routes known as the northern and southern routes of the Northwest Passage which have been open during occasional years in the past. According to records from Environment Canada, the southern route was “open” (no more than 60% ice covered) occasionally as far back as the 1970s, and the northern route was open in the summer of 1998. The northern route has since roughly 2007 has begun to open again. The northern route was open in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 (which was a record-low ice year), 2012, 2015, and now, into 2016 as well. While the alarmists are yelling, they also do not understand the history or the dynamics of an ice age.
The real experts on the oceans and how they function were at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. It was in 1956 when they published A theory of ice ages by Maurice Ewing and William Donn. They were the most influential oceanographers to date, yet the Global Warming people have completely ignored their work and bastardized it for political gain. The core of what they unveiled was that if the Arctic Ocean would get warmer and the ice melted, this would signal an Ice Age, not the sinking of coastal cities. A warmer Arctic Ocean would mean that water would flow more freely between it and the Atlantic, dissipating the cold making the Atlantic colder. There is the key to an Ice Age. If all the ice melted in the Arctic Ocean leaving open water that was then warmer by mixing with the Atlantic, then a warmer Arctic Ocean surrounded by colder land around it would produce evaporation and that water would then return back to the land as snow. More snow that falls in Greenland and Northern Canada is what makes glaciers grow deeper. When the Arctic Ocean is covered in ice, then there is NO EVAPORATION and thus we do not move into an Ice Age.
We do know that the Vikings made to Canada sailing in wooden ships over an open sea. The ancient chronicles of the Vikings told a story of a Viking warrior who was banished from his home for killing another man. He sailed with hundreds of followers to an icy island in the sea. As the stories went, his son set out a few years later and traveled to an even more distant place he knew as “Vinland” which historians today believe was the East coasts of Canada. There have been discoveries at a verified Norse historical site in the New World which was the 1000-year-old seaside settlement L’Anse aux Meadows on the northernmost tip of Newfoundland.
We have actually a contest for the title of who discovered America first. Roman artifacts have been discovered also in Canada. This clearly establishes that the ancient Roman sailed across the Atlantic long before Columbus or the Vikings. This discovery in Canada has created a storm for it rewrites history. The unquestionable discovery of a Roman swordin Canada is rather stark evidence that history is different from what academics believed. The Romans even sent diplomats to the Emperor of China. Roman coins have been discovered in a castle in Japan.
What we do know is this. The theories of Global Warming are linear and simply portray that all the ice will metal and coastal cities will sink. They have completely failed to deal with history or the theory of how the ocean system even works. Melt the ice and you will produce colder storms and more snow that will build the glacers and create an Ice Age – not warm beach fronts.