Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Truth lurking in the shadows behind the Magnitsky Act.

Browder – Russia – Trump – Safra

Hermitage_Capital_ManagementWilliam Felix Browder is all over the news trying to play into the whole Russian/Trump affair muddling the waters. Browder founded Hermitage Capital to invest exclusively in Russian companies. Edmond Safra, the notorious banker who was the center of what was called the Money Plane, put in $25m of seed capital for Hermitage Capital and Safra’s Republic National Bank of New York controlled it. This was the Russian deal I was being asked to join. When HSBC bought Republic National, Browder embarked on a series of share deals which has left him with complete ownership because the whole Hermitage Capital deal was at the center of a real political controversy many were trying to bury for at the center was the attempt to take over the. natural resources of Russia.
Money-Plane NY Mag 1996 CoverThe scheme set in motion the plot to get the president Boris Yeltsin to steal $7 billion from the IMF loans I have written about before. He did, and Safra steered the bank wire transaction through Bank of New York to a company in Geneva claiming to refurbish the Kremlin. As soon as the wire took place, Safra’s Republic Bank of New York ran to the U.S. Justice Department and informed them that a $7 billion wire just took place at Bank of New York from Russia and it was money laundering. The transcripts of the bankers pleading guilty and got only 6 months house arrest, shows when asked what was the laundering, they simply said it involved ransoms for Russian business men. Safra was in league with the U.S. government to move billions of dollars in US currency notes on skids to Russia by the plane load. Clearly, the U.S. government was involved in this scheme to that extent (see Money Plane).
So while Browder portray’s himself as the businessman who was a victim of Putin, to set the record straight, Browder’s grandfather was the leader of the American Communist Party and stood for election to the Presidency of the United States against Theodore Roosevelt. His Grandfather was a communist who was later imprisoned in the McCarthyite period. Browder claims he went to Russia in 1995 to regain his roots. However, he ended up among Russia’s highest profile investors linked to Safra who in turn was linked to Boris Berezovsky, who was close to Yelstin. Yeltsin was going to run for election in 2000 a second time. This is when the plot to takeover Russia was hatched. Yeltsin was threatened to be exposed by the Bank of New York money laundering and he was to resign, keep the money, and appoint Berezovsky president. Yeltsin realized he was set up so that is when he turned to Putin. Berezovsky fled to London, others fled to Israel, and Putin then probably had Safra killed. Since Safra controlled Hermitage Capital, it was seized. The claim of Browder that his Russian tax attorney Sergei Magnitsky was imprisoned and died before trial was trying to fight corruption in Russia is far from the truth. Putin seized all the assets of Hermitage Capital and Browder fought in Congress to get the Magnitsky Act passed. I always found it very strange that here the object was to influence the election of president of Russia by blackmail, and the Congress passes the Magnitsky Act as if it was human rights because of some attorney who dies in a prison in Russia. Something is seriously missing.
Both Browder and Putin disliked the imprisoned oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky who back in 2003 was considered the wealthiest man in Russia. Yukos was one of Russia’s major corporations for oil and petrochemical industries and was also one of the world’s largest non-governmental groups. It was founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003. Khodorkovsky had considered running for President crossing paths with Putin. However, he would also not join in with Safra and his Hermitage Capital seeking to corner the resources of Russia in gold, diamonds, and energy.
Back in October 2003, Khodorkovsky was arrested and charged with fraud and Putin froze shares of Yukos shortly thereafter on tax charges. Putin’s government took further actions against Yukos, leading to a collapse of the company’s share price. Yokos was sized and later declared bankrupt on August 1, 2006 by a Moscow court. In May 2005, he was found guilty and sentenced to nine years in prison. In December 2010, while he was still serving his sentence, Khodorkovsky and his business partner Platon Lebedev were further charged with and found guilty of embezzlement and money laundering; Khodorkovsky’s prison sentence was extended to 2014. After Hans-Dietrich Genscher lobbied for his release, President Vladimir Putin pardoned Khodorkovsky, releasing him from jail on 20 December 2013 and he moved to Switzerland. Browder claimed that Khodorkovsky was doing asset stripping and transfer pricing. Browder said: “We found him to be our toughest opponent. That is one of the reasons I am so sympathetic with President Putin.”
Browder turned against Putin and he was denied a visa to reenter Russia. The official Russian explanation for the decision to revoke Browder’s visa  was formally announced in a letter he received on November 25th reading: ‘The decision to deny entry into the Russian Federation for Mr William Felix Browder has been made by the competent authorities in accordance with Article 27, Item 1, of the Federal Law No 114FZ.’ This article says that entry can be denied to someone in the interest of ‘ensuring the security of the State, public order or public health’.
Hermitage Capital Management claimed it was pioneering American corporate governance and commercial probity in the boardrooms of Russia’s largest companies. That is by no means the story I was fed to invest $1 billion into Hermitage Capital. It was all about natural resources of Russia. Hermitage Capital grew raising money to $1bn in the first two years.
Sorry, I just do not believe the propaganda that surrounds trying to rewrite history. Khodorkovsky was considering running for politics and was financing political parties that opposed Putin. He clashed with Putin over the corruption in the Russian government. There is a whole other side to this story that nobody seems to be interested in exposing because it just might reveal American attempts to manipulate Russian politics that backfired and opened the door to Putin. The connections between Safra and the government to enable the Money Plane is possibly the reason I would allege is how Browder was able to get the Magnitsky Act passed trying to get his money back. If I were Trump, I would open this black box to discover the truth lurking in the shadows behind the Magnitsky Act.

Monday, July 24, 2017

Europe refugees - 2021

 Schulz Warning if Italy is Not Given Aid by the EU The Refugee Crisis Will Explode Again

SPD chancellor candidate Martin Schulz has come out and warned that if Italy is not given support, then it will send the refugees to Germany which it can no longer afford to accept any more. Schulz is warning that the refugee crisis in Germany will explode, if Italy is not provided support from the European Union. Schulz is saying that since 2015, over one million refugees had infiltrated Germany and it is just beyond control. The question becomes whether this will get much worse and distrupt the German elections in the come September.
If the EU does not stop the refugee invasion, they are going to suffer a tremendous economic decline beyond imagination going into 2021.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Yeltsin turned to Putin for help and then handed him the Presidency.

Trump Jr & the Russian Meeting

A lot of people have picked up on the mention of the Magnitsky Act is Donald Trump, Jr. statement of a meeting with a Russian woman. Trump Jr., said the meeting was “the most inane nonsense I ever heard. And I was actually agitated by it.” I seriously doubt that the woman explained the full background as to what took place in that affair and it is not likely that she even fully understood what took place behind the curtain. This Magnitsky Act was passed by Congress to “punish” anyone who was involved in sending him to prison where he dies before getting a trial. This is the company that was started by Safra in which they were soliciting me to join in Russia and I declined. This was the plot to takeover Russia by blackmailing Yeltsin  to step down. When Yeltsin realize he was being set up by NY bankers to grab the natural resources of Russia, he turned to Putin for help and then handed him the Presidency.
Just as the undercover tape on CNN exposed that everybody tries to influence political elections of friends and foes, the attempt to takeover Russia by the NY Bankers was at the center of my issue and is why there could never be a trial. They did not know how much I knew and they knew I had very good contacts all the way up even in Russia. Even Maggie Thatcher had asked me what I knew about a secret underground facility Russia was constructing that satellites could not see back in the Nineties. As I said, the fundamental principle in law is you never ask a question you do not know the answer to. Who knows what will come out. That was their problem with me.
And here’s a statement by Donald Trump Jr published on 11 July 2017:
To everyone, in order to be totally transparent, I am releasing the entire email chain of my emails with Rob Goldstone about the meeting on June 9, 2016. The first email on June 3, 2016 was from Rob, who was relating a request from Emin, a person I knew from 2013 Ms. Universe Pageant near Moscow. Emin and his father have a very highly respected company in Moscow. The information they suggested they had about Hillary Clinton I thought was Political Opposition Research. I first wanted to just have phone call but when that didn’t work out, they said the woman would be in new York and asked if I would meet. I decided to take the meeting. The woman, as she has said publicly, was not a government official. And, as we have said, she had no information to provide and wanted to talk about adoption policy and the Magnitsky Act. To put this in context, this occurred before the current Russian fever was in vogue. As Rob Goldstone said just today in the press, the entire meeting was “the most inane nonsense I ever heard. And I was actually agitated by it.”

You cannot reverse a recession/depression by lowering interest rates

Navigating the Business Cycle = Prosperity

The key to the future is understanding (1) the past and (2) how everything functions. Sure there is a risk of a Dark Age after 2032. Hopefully, we can learn from the past to push things in the right direction at least for once. For whatever reason, the people who like to run government are the least qualified. They seem to be people who just like to order others around.
Since they have typically never had a job in the real world, they remain clueless about how to really deal with society no less the economy. This last crisis is the classic example. We have people in power who do not understand the past no less how things really function. As a result, someone comes up with this idea of lower interest rates to stimulate demand and NEVER even once do they review history and asked – Hey; did this every work before?

I find it truly amazing that I can even write about how lowering interest rates failed to stimulate the economy for almost 10 years in Europe, and yet people want to argue that somehow I am wrong. They never review the past and offer only opinion often taught in school as if that makes it absolute doctrine. Interest rates NATURALLY drop in a recession/depression because demand declines as people lose confidence in the future.
You cannot reverse a recession/depression by lowering interest rates. Until people BELIEVE they can make a profit in the future, they will never borrow as long as the horizon appears dark as dismal.
This solution from the 2007-2009 crisis of lowering interest rates has undermined the Pension funds. This has set the stage for the collapse in government as pensions being to fail first in the state/province level of government and municipalities.
I’m sorry. This is not Nobel Prize winning theories here. All you have to do is just open your eyes, shut your ears to propaganda, and look at the history. Just ask what happens and let the charts show you without political bias.
Throughout history, the solution to every crisis sets the stage for the next crisis. This is what happens when we have unqualified people running the joint.
The key to making money to secure your future is to shed all bias and just let the markets dictate the outcome.

Monday, July 17, 2017

Stochastic is never a forecasting tool. Volatility is interlinked with TIME

Understanding Time & the Kondratieff Wave

QUESTION: Dear Martin,
I am an reader of your blog and attendee of some of your conferences. I am quite impressed about the timing of your forecasting arrays. In particular,  May 1 you published the arrays for DJIA (attached) where you showed two clusters of volatility: the weeks of 15 May and 26 June. I was really stupefied when I witnessed two vicious drops in XIV (an ETF replicating the inverse of 60 days expected implied volatility of S&P 500) precisely in the weeks you indicated. The best model academia has come up with for modelling volatility is a Stochastic Volatility Model with Jumps, where returns of the underlying (index) are random, their volatility is random (mean reverting though) and infrequent jumps also occur randomly. In fewer words forecasting volatility is just impossible for academics, but not for you.
Do you see any more clusters coming in the summer? Are you going to give access to forecasting arrays through ask-Socrates soon?
Best regards.

ANSWER: Academics try to create models about things they do not comprehend.  Volatility comes in different flavors and stochastic is an interesting confirming tool, but never a forecasting tool. Volatility is interlinked with TIME, but it is simply deeply hidden within this complex fourth dimension. 
You cannot forecast volatility in any of its flavors without interfacing TIME in every other aspect of this dimension. Creating flat models like a stochastic take one aspect of a market and then attempts to extrapolate the future based upon this single tool only to fail. We have a stochastic model you can plot and the interesting thing is it is never consistent since sometimes it’s peaking in advance to a turn and at other times after the turn. They never forecast a flash crash or anything on that nature. This Fourth Dimension is extremely complex. Far beyond any one dimensional model can map.

Even those claiming to be using the K-Wave cannot make real forecasts. The basis of Kondratieff’s argument came from his empirical study of the economy’s performance of the USA, England, France, and Germany between 1790 and 1920. Kondratieff took the wholesale price levels, interest rates, production and consumption of coal, pig iron, and lead for each economy. He then sought to smooth the data using an averaging mathematical approach of nine years to eliminate the trend as well as shorter waves. Kondratieff thus arrived at his long-wave theory suggesting that the economic process was a process of continuous waves of boom and bust. Under Marxism, seizing control of all private assets was supposed to eliminate this boom and bust cycle. Kondratieff suggested that changes in technology, wars and revolutions, and the emerging of new countries as well as the surges in the production of gold was the cause of this business cycle. (see his 1935 English Translation not someone else’s commentary on his work)

Anyone claiming to be using the work of Kondratieff to forecast the business cycle is most likely creating a smoke-screen since we can even see from the chart, that his original wave varied greatly both in time duration 47 to 63 years, as well as intensity. Moreover, Kondratieff himself explained the cause was shifts in production, war, and great booms and busts in the discovery of gold. So the K-Wave offers no reliable method to forecast the economy, yet it stands as a testament to the existence of a complex business cycle.

Kondratieff was by no means the first to discover the business cycle. There were many others trying to investigate the complexity of the business cycle.

Nevertheless, Kondratieff explained that the cause was complex and not a single thing. Any attempt to create a one-dimensional model will fall flat on the drown.

The pro-version should be available by September. I am pushing the staff as hard as I can.

Friday, July 14, 2017

If Phase Transition then target in TIME becomes 2020 followed by 2022

The Dow & the Future

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong,
I am fascinated by what you have accomplished in this model. You mentioned in your post about the Orlando conference a sling shot and phase transition, and I am trying to comprehend what that would look like exactly. Is that to say the DJIA won't complete its advance from 2015.75 to 2018 but that the cycle inversion underlying this market and the ECM will extend the high into 2020? When will the special report on these issues be released?
Thank you for the invaluable education,

ANSWER: Yes. We can see from the Global Market Watch that the current year if it closed right here would imply a temporary high. That can change since it is based upon a dynamic view assuming each day that passes were the last trading day of the year. Nevertheless, it warns that we must stay on point.
There are two separate objectives – TIME and PRICE. With regard to PRICE, our three targets given back in 2011 were 18500, 23000, and 40,000. The minimum TIME objective was 2016/2017. Our next target in TIME becomes 2020 followed by 2022. This appears to be setting up for a major vertical move. This is why we will be reviewing how to trade a vertical market.
The markets are far more precise than anyone could have ever imagined. It is unfortunate that the analytical field is plagued by people pretending to be prophets or gurus like the old snake-oil medicine salesmen of the 19th century. Nobody can forecast anything from as personal opinion perspective on a consistent basis. Sure, everyone can make a single forecasting call based upon a gut feeling. But they cannot accomplish that on any consistent basis. This is all about a journey into a world of hidden order – the chaos theory. It is not being a prophet, guru or physic. Such titles reduce the analyst to a snake-oil salesman

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Germany Begins to Censor the Internet

Merkel’s attempt to silence any internet site that disagrees with her government seems to be the resurrection of the idea of East Germany where she grew up. Freedom of speech was outlawed. When I went behind the Berlin Wall, people would speak freely only when nobody else was close enough to listen. Today they have listening devices that can be pointed at you for 100 yards away.
Signs of this is what unfortunately we are facing. As government mismanagement comes to a boil, they become increasingly desperate to retain power. This is yet another sign of the times that what we are facing is the collapse of government. If everything was fine, they would not care what you have to say. The mere fact that we are looking at this crisis in government is why we suddenly see outright censorship now appearing on the internet.