Wednesday, March 30, 2016

How a civilization crumbles- It is just taken over by the invaders just as the Mongols did to China.

The other side of 2015.75

QUESTION: Marty; I attended your WEC in Princeton. It was really amazing. The year before you had pre-conference training session. That might be a good idea to bring back for this year. On another note, Trump seems to be just self-destructing and Cruz has effectively said the Republican Party is over for he will not support the candidate unless it is himself. Ever since your turning point 2015.75, we seem to be entering a period of whatever can go wrong, just goes wrong. Everything from the migrant invasion of Europe, the rise in Trump illustrating the frustration with government, the potential split in the Republican Party, and the Fed apparently yielding to IMF lobbying not to forget Christine Lagarde taking an unprecedented second term. This is just the major list from 2015.75 your peak in government. What else is left? It looks like the Republicans will split and hand everything to Hillary and her bankers. Either people are absolutely blind and can see nothing for they are just the drones of society or many are starting to wake up. Is this just the total chaos and the shift from Public to Private you warned about between 2017 and 2020?
Thanks for the enlightenment
ANSWER: Yes this is just the short list. Whatever can go wrong is going wrong in a grand style. True, there are people who see nothing. They are the people who are slaughtered for they form the majority. You cannot tell them anything. They will never acknowledge anything until they lose everything. That comes in a blink-of-an-eye. The invasion into Syria by Russia on that precise day of September 30th, 2015, highlighted the crisis seems to be spreading from the Middle East. The groups who call people like Farage a racist are necessary for they are the very people who will destroy Western civilization. 
Even the ancient Egyptians pictured themselves as a red skinned race, neither black nor white. The intermarriage over centuries has virtually eradicated the old original blood line. The Greeks who became the Pharaohs of Egypt following Ptolemy I married within their family to maintain the Greek blood line and not mix it with the red skinned Egyptians. It was Ptolemy II Philadelphus who married his sister. They named the city of Philadelphia after what they misread as “brotherly love” in a Christian context whereas it literally meant the brother and sister were making love. So this is typically how a civilization crumbles. It is just taken over by the invaders just as the Mongols did to China.
As for the WEC, we are looking at Orlando just after the elections. We are planning to have more sessions for training. Workshops are what we would like to do and perhaps make this over 4 days to a week. We will probably have one day on Socrates as well and two days for the WEC forecasting. The introductory presentation will be provided on DVD so we do not have to do that again. So first time attendees will be able to view that before arrival. We will have one day for the institutions with portfolio forecasting. We will let everyone know when we have nailed down the venue and dates. This is what we are shooting for.

Hillary will destroy the economy with massive tax increases while protecting the banks

The Battle to Keep the Establishment in Power

That is the last time a Republican presidential convention opened without the nominee having been decided in the primaries was 1976 and the fight was between Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford. There were efforts by the establishment to stop two people they regarded as outsiders before – Barry Goldwater in 1964 and Ronald Reagan in 1976. It is looking much more difficult for Trump to nail down enough delegates to beat the Republicans at their own corrupt rules. We are more likely headed to a rigged convention and this is highly playing into the hands of the precise thing the Republicans better not do. They are sacrificing the nation for personal perks. It is not that Trump is the savior; hardly. But he would be at least a check against these people.
It seems more likely than not that they will rig the game one-way or another to stop Trump and ignore the fact why people are even voting for him because it is really a vote against the establishment. This appears likely to explode in total chaos for 2018 and as we look into the 2017-2020 time period, it appears that they will destroy the public confidence in government on a wholesale basis.
As it now stands, they will most likely hand the nomination to Cruz one way or another. Trump’s only chance would be to run to the Libertarian Party since there would be no time left to get on all the ballots as an independent. Cruz would lose against Hillary and Hillary will destroy the economy with massive tax increases while protecting the banks. It appears we are indeed sowing the seed of our own destruction. The Republicans know Social Security goes negative in 2017 so they want to blame Hillary. Meanwhile, Trump shoots himself in the foot all the time and he has the media in full blown assault against him. This is likely to really undermine the entire confidence in government especially since Cruz came out and said he would not support Trump, only himself.

Same conditions setting up today as was the case in 1927. See Dow Chart. Corporate debt is the only alternative

Posted Mar 30, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Janet Yellen signaled that the Fed is grappling with the problem I have been warning about; the dollar has become the de facto only real currency and the Fed is indeed becoming the world’s central bank. Yellen has admitted that the Fed is being lobbied by everyone to surrender its domestic policy objectives to international. This is precisely what took place in 1927. Yellen stated that the Fed should worry less about inflation domestically than about global growth risks. While pointing to the slowdown in China and depressed commodity prices, Europe is a real basket case. She used the words that the Fed must consider “caution is especially warranted” when it comes to raising interest rates. This has put most Fed watchers off to expecting any possible rate hike into retirement as they expect nothing before September. The BREXIT will most likely be rigged because it is exactly opposite of what they are telling the Brits that they will be isolated and the economy will collapse if the exit the EU. Nobody says Britain did fine before it joined only in 1973 or that it is the other-way-around; with BREXIT, Europe will fail. This heated issue in Britain is most likely the final nail in the coffin. Britain will collapse with the Euro and should have just handed its sovereignty to Brussels. Europe will never reform so it will be all go down together. The political risk in Europe is tremendous and Yellen cannot prevent that with simply interest rates.
It is ironic that it is also the same conditions setting up today as was the case in 1927. The Fed back then lowered US rates to try to deflect the capital inflows to help bailout Europe. The markets eventually backfired and capital shifted pouring into the USA doubling the US share market despite doubling interest rates to try to prevent the crisis they helped to create. This all led to the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis and those economic declines resulted in political chaos. In 1933 FDR came to power. But so did Hitler and Mao. That was all made possible because of the collapse in government debt. We are in the very same position today and the Fed is surrendering domestic policy objective for international concerns.

What is astonishing is just how brainwashed society has become. They cheer lower interest rates as if this will eventually work to stimulate the economy and markets. Interest rates decline with economic declines and rise with economic booms. The analysis on TV is just ass-backwards. When a stock is doing well, the price rises because there is a bidding war. Mr. Larry Summers, the father of negative interest rates, admits he cannot forecast anything. Yet he advocates manipulation without any understanding the consequence of his theories in pure stupidity and remains clueless as to history or how markets even move. We can see that the Fed raised rates from 3.5% in 1927 up to 6% in 1929 and the stock market doubled on capital inflows. The Fed cannot lower US rates to prevent a crisis in Europe or to reverse the Chinese economy no less bring a bid back to commodities when the economy is not expanding. As the stock market rises, Congress will criticize the Fed for making the rich richer, and the Fed will then be forced to return to domestic policy objectives raising rate to try to stop the rally. Yet the rally will begin to take off when the public at large begins to realize government is in trouble. This is part of the 4 elections coming with the Year from Political Hell.
The risks and the reality that the Fed has lost any real ability to manage the economy have become so real, it is slapping people in the face and still they cannot see it. The Fed has little conventional monetary policy ammunition to counteract a downturn at this time. Larry Summers’ negative interest rates are destroying the fabric of the global economy. Far too many pension funds are unfunded and many countries in Europe by law require they be managed conservatively and invest EXCLUSIVELY in government bonds. The risks of total meltdown beginning in 2017 are on the horizon.
Yellen has inherited a complete nightmare. This decision to delay the long-awaited liftoff from a zero interest rate illustrates that the world economy is totally screwed. There is a lot of speculation about why the Fed seems so reluctant to “normalize monetary policy”. However, besides the normal issues such as low inflation, weak wage gains, and strong job growth, the real issue nobody seems to look has been the fact that government are now crack addicts on life-support with negative rates. A hike will increase the Federal deficits of all countries globally. The smart institutional clients coming to our World Economic Conferences have shifted their portfolios selling government debt and moving to blue-chip corporate. Corporate debt is the only alternative to government debt in crisis and emerging market debt other bought thinking they have no risk since it is dollar denominated. When government debt goes bust, you get absolutely nothing and they can change the law at any given moment. They can re-denominate your debt holdings as well as extend the maturity and there is absolutely nothing any bondholder can possible do.

This is just simply how the West falls – the same as Rome.

Posted Mar 30, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Those in power who have something to lose follow the same pattern of attacks. They are using the very same tactics against Trump & Farage portraying them as Racists because both are against immigration but really against the establishment. When I was in London, I bumped into the very same team from the USA that helped Clinton win the White House were there helping Tony Blair. This is a business, and they know how to pull it all together. They turn trying to protect your border and culture into racism. The implication is obvious. Everyone should intermarry regardless of sex, race, or religion. If a parent is against that statement for their child, then obviously they must be a racist.

1844 Phila Nativism Riot Againt Irish
Immigration has always been a historical issue that rises whenever the economy turns down. During the 1840s, it turned into violence on the streets. They were Irish who were Christian and white. It was just that they were taking jobs in an economic decline. Farage’s UKIP is being portrayed as racist and what is the alternative? Opening borders in this time and place has nothing to do with racism any more than it did in the 1840s. These are economic declining times and absolutely the WRONG instant to bring in any immigrants whatsoever regardless of race or religion.
Nevertheless, this is how Trump and Farage are being portrayed and the less intelligent to the less sophisticated buy this nonsense and repeat it. The end result is rather blunt. Historically, this is just simply how the West falls – the same as Rome. There were laws passed to prevent intermarriage. It was even outlawed for a man to marry one of his slaves. There has always been the attempt to prevent the dilution of a culture for that is how it typically ends anyway. Throughout history, people swarm into the core economy and then bring it down. The Muslim invasion of Europe shows that nearly 80% of the migrants are not even from Syria. This is simply how it all ends. The interesting aspect is that a Muslim friend of mine in Europe is even more against the migrants for they see them as the lower class and less educated who are indoctrinated with religious beliefs that are extreme. The Muslims I know in Europe and Russia are not extreme and live within a western society with harmony. If they are against the migration, it does not seem to really be a racist issue; just economic and that is what the propagandists are using because Trump and Farage are against the establishment – plain and simple.
So to those who want to say no, Trump and Farage supporters are racists, then they have no problem with your daughter marrying a different race migrant, changing their religion, and wearing a Hijab, niqab, or burka for the rest of their lives. If you have any problem with that, you must be a racist. Sorry – it’s politics as usual. (In my case, I told my daughter she better not bring home a prosecutor).

Friday, March 25, 2016

We will see the USA ultimately split into at least four separate nations that are divided but still “united” as states.

Posted Mar 24, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Press & Politicians Are The Problem

White House Dinner 1996
The elitist press are starting to realize that they are the problem. “Trump voters are a coalition of the dispossessed. They have suffered lost jobs, lost wages, lost dreams. The American system is not working for them, so naturally they are looking for something else. Moreover, many in the media, especially me, did not understand how they would express their alienation. We expected Trump to fizzle because we were not socially intermingled with his supporters and did not listen carefully enough. For me, it’s a lesson that I have to change the way I do my job if I’m going to report accurately on this country,” wrote David Brooks of the New York Times who had endorsed Obama.
This is why I call the people the “great unwashed” because politicians and journalists are disconnected from reality, and combined, they will absolutely bring about the collapse of the United States. We will, no doubt, see the USA ultimately split into at least four separate nations that are divided but still “united” as states. It has been set in motion by this elitist, socialistic bullshit, and the people are stupid enough to listen to whatever they preach as they line their pockets. I am not writing about this from afar. I have even attended the White House Correspondence Dinner where the president came and delivered a speech. So I have been inside, but I am also on the outside for I read the tea leaves of the economy; not what Harvard professors teach.
The elite press and the political class preach to us from their ivory towers, but would never dare mingle with the great unwashed. They are clueless as to how the American dream has collapsed into a nightmare, and negative interest rates are the last straw. From the perspective of someone like Larry Summers who says behind close doors, “If these bastards won’t spend everything they have, well damn it, we will force them by charging them a tax to save!”
Then we have the elitist class of analysts who regurgitate whatever the political elite want to hear. Since they are too busy kissing ass, they too never bother to look outside the window in their ivory towers.
The hoard of people they have conjured up to try to prevent people from turning up at Trump rallies demonstrates two things. First, these people stand for nothing and are using force and violence to try to intimidate others not to vote for Trump. That is a very serious statement and it warns that this country really is on the brink of civil war. Secondly, the “haves” get everything from government, demand high taxes, and rib those who have anything they want. They are against those who are disenfranchised and are turning to Trump because Hillary and Cruz offer the more of same and no change. The media will now use its manipulation to try to convince people not to vote for Trump so they can keep their bullshit political analysts and friends in power.
The last time we saw these types of polarized differences was in the decades that led to the Civil War. During that time, there was a banking crisis created by Andrew Jackson that led to the massive collapse of state banks and the sovereign debt defaults by states during the 1840s. When the Supreme Court upheld slaves as “property” to supposedly prevent violence by alienating the South, it proved to be the final straw that caused everything to erupt.
With negative interest rates, rising taxes, and a crisis in pensions, the American dream is finished. The elitist press have not quite figured that out yet. They are too busy attacking Trump to help their political friends. I have been at such dinners; I have watched it first hand. Sorry – it’s game over. Yes my name is published in the list of attendees at Table 143, the guest of Bill Kristol, Weekly Standard.

Thursday, March 24, 2016

A closing below 17124 would be an outright sell signal.

Market Closing for the Week Today

Posted Mar 24, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
GCNYNF-W 3-24-2016

Today will be the close for the week and this will be an important indicator. A closing in gold below 1237.50 will warn of weakness. We have important technical resistance at the 1245 level and a closing back below that breakout line will also warn that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Gold bounced off of the Weekly Bullish Reversal and came within 30 cents. That is not a very good indication that a continued rally should be expected. Typically, those who trade emotionally end up buying the high in anticipation of further advancement.

DJIND-W 3-24-2016

When we look at the Dow Jones, here too we failed to exceed the Weekly Bullish at 17750 after reaching only 17648. Last week’s closing was 17602 and a lower closing today will warn that the advance is starting to fizzle out. We have not been able to exceed the down trend line technically. A closing below 17124 would be an outright sell signal.


Looking at the euro, the peak came in the week of the 17th at 11342. We do not think we can reach that 11600 level. In the case of the euro, the market has been unable to exceed the breakout line which currently stands at 11400. The oscillators are turning down as well. A closing below 11214 will be bearish, and a closing below 11087 will be a serious sell signal. Thereafter, a breach of the 10700 level will be devastating.
CRUDE-W 3-24-2016

In Crude, the breakout line stands at 4347. Here too, we stopped just shy of it. We already elected a Weekly Bearish last Friday. The next key area to watch will be the 3400 level.
Overall, we are looking to May to provide the next turning point. So pay attention. If we start to elect bearish reversals on the weekly level, we may indeed see a decline unfold.

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

There has never been a single “republic” that has ever proven to work

I am a capitalist and what we have today is the least efficient form of capitalism. Actually it is quite a destructive and dangerous form of capitalism when the concentration of power reaches this level. I think that in all these years that I thought we were talking about different things, maybe we were not. You call big government what I call plutocrats controlling government. You were blaming governments, I was blaming plutocrats that we let become soo big and powerful that can buy any government…
Yet maybe we are not that far off.
… In any case… one question that I would love to ask you… how do you think we are going to fix the problem with the power structure? What I call the power structure is not the legitimate power structure, but the mix of oligarchs and corrupt government working as one cancerogenous entity. I do not see any reasonable way to fix it…?
Best regards
ANSWER: I think what you have to understand is our structure of government being a “republic” rather than a democracy, invites oligarchy. There has never been a single “republic” that has ever proven to work. The admixture or money and power always becomes lethal. This is why I blame government, not the oligarchs. They could not buy politicians if they were non (1) career, and (2) all powerful. Taxes and regulation become the incentive for the oligarchs to buy government. 
  1. If we eliminate taxes and 
  2. career politicians, we will solve not ALL, but most of the problem. 
  3. We then must eliminate “socialism” which at its core is predicated upon the foundation of Marxism which advocated government power by insisting that it was all powerful and COULD alter society by regulation. This serves as a fundamental pillar for taxation.

Philadelphia is trying to introduce a 3 cent tax per ounce of soda. The excuse is that “sugar” is bad for you so they have only the best interests in mind for society. They expect to get almost $100 million annually. The city is dead broke and has a 22.5% tax on parking and 8.5% tax on hotels. They have chased everyone out because anyone even having a conference there they was income tax for money earned in the city. This latest “soda tax” means a 2-liter bottle of soda typically costs $1.50, but the tax would amount to $2.04, more than the cost of the actual bottle. The cost of a 12-pack of soda would nearly double to more than $8. This is the same thing with all this global warming. They use this as the excuse to tax you for your own good. The money does nothing but line the pockets of politicians. In the case of Philadelphia, they will shop in the suburbs to avoid the tax. To appease the oligarchs, the Feds created carbon-credits which can then be sold to others who do pollute. Its all just about the money.
Julian-IIWe simply have to admit that regulation does not work when used in such a way that has covert revenue agendas. Other types of regulation such as outlawing prostitution is pointless when all you do is create a tax-free underground industry that leads to exploitation and kidnapping of girls. Making drugs illegal funds crime just as prohibition funded the Mafia. Passing a law against murder does not prevent murder. There are things which are simply inherent within human nature. There will be crazy people and have been throughout history. Putting in background check to sell guns is a deterrent, but it will not stop a crazy person from being crazy. If they wanted to kill someone a knife will suffice. Outlawing gay marriage will not stop the same sex from living together. The whole problem was simply that we imposed all sorts of regulations attached to “marriage” so someone from inheriting property to being allowed at the bedside of a dying person. At the border for taxes, they do not carry if you are married. If you travel with someone else, the $10,000 limit applies to the two of you. It becomes the convoluted regulation that is hell bent on collecting money somehow that then disturbs others viewpoint of what is “marriage” when if we detach the regulation attached to “marriage” then it really does not matter.
So what we have to understand is that eliminating career politicians will eliminate much of the corruption. Eliminate the power to regulate pretended circumstances and you eliminate the need to buy government in some manner. It has long been said that God created the Ten Commandments, and man has created 1 billion laws trying to say the same thing. Murder is murder regardless if it is a policeman killing a citizen shooting them in the back as they are running or whatever. The Roman Emperor Julian II (360-363AD) may have been one of the most honorable men in history. He declared that no one was above the law, including himself. Any law enacted had to apply to everyone including himself.

Monday, March 21, 2016

Why Models Fails – Increased Use or Faulty Design?

1-When Genius Failed
It seems successful trading/investing/forecasting systems work only when used by a few. When these same systems get adopted by more and more users their effectiveness diminishes to a point where they no longer work. Do you agree with this, and if yes do you think as your forecasts become more well known and applied they too would lose their effectiveness?
ANSWER: No. Systems fail because of a lack of historical data testing. For example,Black-Scholes failed creating the Long-Term Capital Management crisis in 1998 because the data used for developing the model was only back to 1971.
Models that only function within the “noise” level will work for a period and then totally fail. If you do not even test something on the Great Depression, how can you expect that model to even survive such an event? It is IMPOSSIBLE to change the long-term trend. Everything is connected. To really make gold suppressed, you have to do that to all commodities, create deflation when the central banks are trying desperately to create inflation without success, and it goes on and on.
These excuses are clearly by people who look for excuses to justify their “theory” behind some trend. The markets move collectively. There are no single trends for the market will arbitrage it into its proper place within the general scheme. So models that become less efficient were improperly designed from the outset. We are all behind the collective movement and that includes the average person who does not even trade or invest. The rest focus of unemployment, GDP, trade, whatever, and respond to what? To the trend of the whole.

Friday, March 18, 2016

Technical - Dow

Posted Mar 18, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
1-Six Dimensions
QUESTION: Marty, you have said since the S&P500 and the NASDAQ took out last year’s low and the Dow did not, it does not necessarily imply the Dow must do so since it is international compared to the others being domestic. You said that crude had to close below $35 at year end or it would bounce. That too has unfolded. You also said the euro “should” rally back to retest the 116 level before resuming a decline. You have taught us inter-connectivity and to approach a market from the yearly level on down. You have shown us turning points, and period of high volatility and your reversals are astonishing, very to the point and black and white. Do you think it takes a non-linear thinker to grasp how all this functions? Some people seem dense and no matter what you say they will always disagree. So is it the non-linear ability that makes a good trader? The difference between your caveman and a real analyst?
ANSWER: Perhaps. The primitive analysis is unable to see outside one dimension. I suppose there are people who can only see a straight line. That one-dimensional observation limitation typically condemns them to government employment or just followers. True, no matter what you show them, they will not be able to grasp the substance of what you are saying. So it is pointless to try to argue with such people for you cannot win. It is like a diehard Democrat or Republican. No matter what you show them, they are unable to see beyond their own bias typically repeating the brainwashing of that affiliation.
Honestly, I cannot recall how many times I have stated the markets are bothinterconnected and fractal. The Daily level is the “noise”, while the “trend” emerges only starting with the weekly level insofar as reactions. The long-term trend shifts only from the monthly level on up. You do not even get interesting until you start to elect Weekly Reversals.
DJIND-W 3-17-2016
Yes, the Dow is like the trophy real estate. The Japanese once bought Rockefeller Center. The Chinese today buy the most expensive properties in US real estate whereas the Canadians are the number one buyer insofar as the quantity of properties. In stocks, this is the difference between the Dow compared to S&P500 and the NASDAQ. You can have a high-flying stock on NASDAQ and the Chinese would never buy it because nobody ever heard of the company in mainstream. So the Dow NOT penetrating last year’s low is in line with the difference between international capital flows and domestic. The very first Weekly Bullish Reversal does not come into play until the 17750 zone. This wide gap illustrates how far a market can rally WITHOUT actually change the trend in motion.
DJIND-D 3-17-2016 Reversals

We will probably have workshops at this year’s WEC and perhaps do this over a 4 day event in total so the pros are not suffering from boredom and can attend only the professional sessions of analysis. To me the system is logical and simple, but I am a trader from my youth. Here is just the Daily Reversals without using them in reverse or merging with TIME. We are still porting this over for the Trader version and testing. Most of the verbiage has been corrected and the last 3 months of work there will be moved over to the Preview and Investor sites next week. But here you can see just using the Daily Reversals captures the “noise”. If we then turn to the Weekly level, we elected the first four Bearish from the May high we were forecasting and that signaled a serious correction confirming what the timing models forecast. The Dow fell and stopped at 15370 whereas the previous year’s low was 15340. The Weekly Bearish resided at 15362 and the technical support we reported was 15176.26. We also warned that August had to close below  BELOW 15555 to spark a sharp continued decline. We are able to define the lines in the sand. Using the Reversals in the negative you would simply cover shorts at such a level and reenter if these areas are broken. They all held. The Daily Bullish were being elected within 7 days. Therefore, there was no reason to have a short position any longer. You should have covered against the previous year’s low and re-enter either penetrating 15176 intraday or a weekly close below 15362. Let the market to its thing.
DJFOR-W 3-17-2016
Now we approach the 17750 level which is the FIRST Weekly Bullish. So you step out of any long-position and re-enter a long position if that level is exceeded on a weekly closing basis, but we still have to be careful that 18100 is exceeded or step out again (see quarterly). This week is a turning point for they are the lowest and the highest bars in the top row of the Array. We have a Panic Cycle coming into play next week and another turning point the week of 03/28 with a Directional Change the week after. So timing is warning we are starting to push the limits. The prudent thing is step out and let the market make the call. We have the time and price. Just let the market tell you. This is where using the reversals in a NEGATIVE manner comes into play.
DJFOR-Y 3-17-2016
To grasp the strategy, we start with the yearly level in this Fractal dimension. We see that 2017 is a key target. We also know that reactions are 2 to 3 time units. We also know that the strongest way markets make moves is through a slingshot. So, if we fail to get through resistance and cannot close on a weekly level above 17750, there is nothing to get excited about. We can still flip to the downside and penetrate that low going into 2017 completing a 2 year reaction and then flip to the upside into 2020.
DJFOR-Q 3-17-2016
We then turn to the quarterly level. We had a Directional Change for the first quarter of 2016 so a bullish reaction for the first quarter was nothing unusual. Here we have a Quarterly Bullish at 18106. So here we can see that is some distance to cover for the March closing when that comes into play. Assuming we did test that level in the remainder of March, we look to the What-If Models to ask what would the Quarterly Bearish be if we reached that level and failed? That returns 17575. So you can see that the bearish reversals are rising rapidly and that is also warning that we either breakout or breakdown. Since we are running out of time, it is more likely-than-not that we will head lower rather than higher.
DJFOR-M 3-17-2016
Now we turn to the monthly level in the Fractal game. Here we can see a Directional Change and turning point has been March followed by May and then we have August with a Panic Cycle. Interesting pattern of Directional Changes spread out into January. The big turning point on the Empirical (fixed) quarterly level is the 1st Quarter 2017 with some spillover into the 2nd Quarter.
Confidence-wideFundamentally, this is the year from political hell. The Republicans will no doubt change the rules of the convention to try to stop Trump. They will figure this will blow-over. But they are dead wrong. To stop Trump they will expose that the American people have no real right to vote at all. It is always the “elite” who determine who is president. Europe is finding out that the Troika are not elected people – Lagarde, Draghi, and the head of the Commission. There is no means to vote these people out of power. American are about to discover they vote only for DELEGATES and not actually candidates. The rules they made to prevent Ron Paul’s name from even be introduced at the last Republican Convention are coming back to bite them in the ass. They meanONLY Trump’s name could be introduced. So they will change the rules to stop him showing they change the rules so they can do as they like. There is no rule of law here. American are about to discover they have been bullshitted to all these years. So we are looking at a collapse in CONFIDENCE that has existed in government since World War II. The game is over and this is what we must grasp lies on the horizon for 2017 – the Year from Political Hell. The markets are trying to warn us here. So pay attention.
It does get very frustrating when you constantly get criticized by people who do not understand the markets or how they move so they lash out at you. There are people who are ALWAYS going to be negative because this is personal to them and just as they treat Trump, they will bad mouth me to try to PREVENT people from learning or using the model. This is their goal. The more negative they get, they more of their agenda they expose. Such people make me ask why the hell do I care? Just retire since I do not need the grief or the money. At the very least I will bar such people from subscribing to anything. They make me feel like I should just go find that beach and just wait for the mushroom cloud to appear and it will be like having your home fumigated. Only then come out when it has been wiped cleaned. They are the worst of humanity; the real bottom feeders. They contribute nothing to society and are only in the game for themselves. So they try to prevent others from learning what they are incapable of seeing. If they cannot figure this model out, then nobody else should.
Then I realize just judge the source. Such nasty people are incapable of learning because they constantly want to blame others for their own stupidity. The solution is bar them from subscribing to any service or attending any conference. They are the very type of people who stop any advancement in society for anything they do not instantly understand must be garbage and a piece of shit. They are really the people who destroy civilization for they are the cancer that compels us to repeat history over and over again. It does not matter if they are incapable of comprehending a model or anything else in society. They will tear something down to prevent any advancement which leaves them behind. They are incapable of ever becoming a professional trader for as soon as you declare yourself all knowledgeable, you cannot learn from your experience and you are incapable of helping society ever advance.  The key to trading is to be flexible and go with the flow. If you cannot do that, you cannot trade. The market speak to us. The model I designed allows us to quantify what they are saying. It is very black and white. This is notOPINION or what I think should happen. I have nothing to do with that forecast. So they can bash me all they want, it is they who are the ignorant fool incapable of every learning anything.
GAPProfessionals do not want the nonsense. Keep it black and white. You have turning points and Reversals. You elect one, you should move to the next. The turning points tell you how long you have in time.
Here is the reversal set up for the 1987 and 1989 major highs in the S&P500. In the case of 1987, it was a Friday and we elected both the Weekly Bearish Reversals.
We have two Weekly Bearish at 286.10. We closed that week at 282.30. That was the weekend of a World Economic Conference. I stood on that stage trying to find some technical support before the next reversal at 181.00 I could find nothing.The arrays gave us a turning point in 2 days. That was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model.
Everyone was asking me what would happen. All I could say is look. We have a gap of about 10,000 basis points and the timing is 2 days. That is what this says. Do I think it is crazy? Of course. But I said, hey, that’s what it is telling us. The the day of the low I put out an urgent report saying the objective were met and we would then make new highs.
The “gap” for the 1989 turn in the USA was nothing. The crisis would be in Tokyo. We simply dropped from the 345 level to 323.
The model shows you the TIME and PRICE. You simply have to look at this layer by layer. I warned gold was NOT as weak as it appeared because it held the 1045 level for the year-end closing.  Crude held the $35. These things do not happen randomly. The market speak to us if you are not so bull-head to listen and learn for once instead of being always negative. The negative people will get what they deserve – total wipe out.