Friday, August 18, 2017

European Refugee Crisis will Engulf Europe by 2032



Migrants sit in a boat during a rescue operation by the Italian navy off the coast of Sicily on Nov. 28. Italy is looking to revamp the way it handles the hundreds of thousands of migrants who arrive annually.

The European Refugee Crisis is really completely out of control. The bulk of these people are by no means refugees. You see no women and children here in the boat – only young men. Now Spain is the new target and will overtake Greece as the second-biggest gateway for economic invader entering Europe by sea. The sudden surge in migration to Spain comes following a crackdown on human smuggling along the Libya-Italy sea route, which has been the main entry route to Europe. Africans are migrating to Europe because there is little to do at home.  Egypt will grow to 100 million people while Nigeria to soon reach 400 million. Europe will be swallowed up whole as it was when the Roman Empire was subjugated by the Barbarians who crossed the Rhine River.
When the Barbarians took over Europe, they at first issued coinage in the Roman tradition. But this began to rapidly diminish. Nevertheless, history is repeating. Europe is being swallowed up once again. By the time we see the other side of 2032, Europe will be a shadow of its former glory just as the main language of California will be Spanish not English. Things are definitely changing.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Moving Averages and Stochastic – Not Trading Tools but Good Confirming Tools



QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; What is your view of moving averages? Can they really be used for trading?
Thank you
KL
ANSWER: No. Moving averages and stochastics are nice confirming tools. They are incapable of forecasting a high or low. They also do not reflect magnitude of a move. They can be a useful confirming tool, but nothing to actually enter a trade on that is consistent.

Monday, August 14, 2017

The Revolution Cycle can be just 13 to 26 Weeks

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; What you are saying is there is no diplomacy that would work and that the only real player here is regime change and that is in the hands of the North Korean people. So what is your advice to Trump?
KE
ANSWER: Forget the trying to talk reason or my arsenal is bigger than yours. Yes. Diplomacy is dead in the water. The only way is for Trump to get on his knee and beg forgiveness. This seems to be what the Democrats want and then they will bash the Republicans in 2018 with it in the elections. So lets get realistic here.
Trump’s last statement was : “We will see what happens. We think that lots of good things can happen and we can also have a bad solution. ” There is nothing else he really can do. So why all this blaming Trump? We are dealing with a dictator who is playing straight out of the old Marxist Play Book of the Cold War.
Stasi East GermanyKim Jung-un’s power lies in his secret police force exactly as the Stasi in East Germany. There is one way you dominate a state. That is you follow the Julius Caesar strategy but instead of using it against state enemies, you turn it against your own people. You divide and conquer making people spies on their own neighbors so everyone is watching everyone else and reporting
venetian-mouthoftruth-copyThe Venetian Empire eventually crumbled by the same strategy of divide and conquer turning neighbors against neighbors. It was called the Mouth of Truth. Anyone could drop a slip upon anyone else and accuse them of whatever. They were immediately seized and assumed to be guilty.
Kim Jung-un maintains power in this classic manner. He has turned North Koreans against each other. Everyone is afraid to speak freely for being turned in.
I have written before that I went behind the Berlin Wall before it fell with a friend to visit his family trapped there. We took a walk and his cousin would always be looking around. She would speak truthfully only when nobody was in listening distance. As soon as anyone came near, she would immediate go into a skit of how great it was to live there and how wonderful the state was to take care of them.
smelling-jars

Those in the West have no concept of how evil a state can become. I have warned that revolutions come from the left because that is where dictators are born with the desire to rule people. The right fosters the drive to freedom and the desire to be left alone. The notorious Stasi secret police of East Germany is notorious for surveillance and dividing the people turning man against his brother until there is no single opposition against the state. When the wall came down, the extent of the secret police operations targeted against their own people was mind-blowing. What surfaced was their “smelling jars” collection. Yes, the Stasi used odor recognition to keep tabs on anyone they suspected. The Stasi often collected the samples covertly by breaking into homes to stealing a suspects’ used underwear. They then kept them in jars in case they turned up missing to hunt them down.
It is quite possible that Kim Jung-un has employed the same tactics that have existed throughout his dynasty. Quite frankly, diplomacy NEVER worked with the Soviet Union until the state could not economically function. Sanction can perhaps help that process is 100% enforced, but it is something that is inevitable and therein lies the danger.
The people of North Korea have to rise up against the Secret Police. The frustration of the people will explode at that moment and we will see a period of wholesale lawlessness. As familiar social and political institutions fell along with the Berlin Wall in East Germany, crime erupted almost overnight and the policing system in East Germany could not cope with the dramatic change causing the police to collapse.
A close look at the fall of East Germany is a guide to how North Korea will fall. History repeats BECAUSE human nature is the same throughout centuries regardless of culture or language. People will respond the same way no matter what.
There were local East German elections on May 7th, 1989 which were rigged but perhaps more obvious this time. Small demonstrations followed were quickly dispersed with Brut force by police and the Stasi, but this time the dissatisfaction did not simply subside as usual. It continued to foster for 186 days (26.5 weeks) until the Berlin Wall fell on November 9th, 1989.
During 1988, reformers inside the Hungarian government opened their border to the west and allowed Hungarians to leave for Austria. Then in 1989, Hungary began allowing East Germans on Hungarian soil to leave for Austria as well. Czechoslovakia blocked East Germans from fleeing to Hungary. The government in Prague was holding firm to communism. During August of 1989, East Germans began seeking refuge in the West German embassy in Prague. In August, there were thousands of them, camped out in the cramped confines of the embassy grounds. Czechoslovakian authorities tried to stop any more from coming into the city, but that effort failed.
Therefore, during August of 1989, as East Germans began storming West German embassies in Prague and Budapest in hopes of receiving asylum in West Germany, this made the West German television, which was watched by almost all East Germans. When the people saw the stampede, only then did the atmosphere within East Germany start to explode. Now large demonstrations began to take place in Leipzig during an international trade fair in September 1989. Again they were broken up with sheer force by the police and Stasi.
It was then in September 1989, that the Hungarian government simply opened its borders and East Germans began to pour out of the country by the tens of thousands. It was against this backdrop that the East German government prepared to celebrate the country’s fortieth anniversary on October 7th – a day that would truly be remembered in the Communist world.
It was  October 7th and 8th that became East Germany’s “revolution.” On these two days, the East German state collapsed. The Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, became a symbol of hope to many East Germans, and the events in Hungary with the storming of the West German Embassies in Prague and Budapest were now the catalyst for large-scale protests throughout the country. On the 7th, a huge spontaneous demonstration erupted with several thousand East Germans pouring into the center of Berlin that nobody had seen since the 1950’s.
The East German police had been prepared for weeks to expect “counter-revolutionary” actions by “enemies of the state” to protest on October 7th.  However, the police officers never saw such a crowd. They had no idea how to deal with any sort of mass protest where they were confronted with the hostility of thousands of very angry citizens. Both police and Stasi were involved in the operation where they did beat and arrested more than 1,000 people. The police stations and prisons were overwhelmed. The protesters were denied everything including foo and the use of toilets.
It was October 9th, 1989 that became the crucial turning point in this fostering revolution. In Leipzig, a traditional prayer service turned into a demonstration by 70,000 as reported in Spiegel on October 16th, 1989. The East German army and all security forces had been mobilized, but the crowd was massive. For the first time in East German history, the Stasi backed down and did not break up the protest probably due to its size. This marked the beginning of change in East Germany and the victory over the state succeeded in 155 days (22.1 weeks) 0.424 (about 43% of a year 1/2 of 8,6 cycle). Meanwhile, on November 4th, 1989, the Czechoslovakia border was opened for East Germans, even while it still stood as a barrier to the citizens of Czechoslovakia themselves. Just five days later, on November 9th, 1989, the Berlin Wall fell.
The lesson that we have to draw here is not diplomacy, but the North Korean people need to know they can rise up and win. Such revolutions take place very rapidly. Here we saw East Germany fall in just 26 weeks. The strongest weapon is information. The news has to focus on the people and what they stand to gain. Show how China is now the second largest economy and Chinese tourists have replaced Russians and Japanese everywhere around the world. Give the people hope, Kim gives them oppression. His Marxist handbook is outdated. The tilling the soil and slave of the state has come to an end globally.
If we look at Ukraine, we see that on January 4th, 2013,  the daily Komsomolskaya Pravda Ukraine, reported that Yanukovich mentioned three priorities in his country’s foreign relations: the country’s presidency of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe; the signing of an Association Agreement with the EU; and the development of “close partnership” with the Customs Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, as well as with other organisations that he did not name. This raised the hopes of the people. I reported in December 2013 how corruption of the police in Ukraine was staring to come to a head. It was being exposed how they even killing people with no accountability.
The week of August 19th, 2013 in Ukraine, appears to be the turning point. Based upon sources, this was not merely when American National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden was granted a one-year temporary political asylum in Russia and leaving Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport on August 1st, 2013, but this was the catalyst for a change in mind of Yanukovych to back away from the Association Agreement with the EU, which was being hotly negotiated in January 2012 and was initialed on March 30th, 2012 in Brussels.
Anti-government protest in Ukraine
Mass protests erupted in November 2013 when Yanukovych announced that he would not proceed with long-anticipated association and trade agreements with the European Union (EU) on November 21st.  On the 24th, a protest with about 100,000 people erupted on Sunday in Kiev in support of joining Europe rather than Russia. I reported back then:
“Ukraine has a lot of political pressure coming from Russia and Europe. Russia is said to have threatened to turn off the natural gas to the Ukraine if it joined the EU and Europe is promising to supply it gas even though it would be getting that energy from Russia. To say the least, the events in Ukraine are politically very important as we move beyond 2014.”
The day after I reported that our sources were reporting that Russia objected to the signing of the Association Agreement  was officially admitted on November 26th, 2013. The Ukrainian Government admitted that Russia had asked it to delay signing the EU association agreement and that it “wanted better terms for the EU deal.”
Now, by November 30th, general public support grew for pro-EU anti-government protesters as images of them bloodied by police crackdown spread online and in the media. Then on December 1st, about 300,000 people protested in Kiev’s Independence Square known as Maidan. One December 17th, Putin announced plans to buy $15bn in Ukrainian government bonds and a cut in cost of Russia’s natural gas for Ukraine to try to help the government.
Yanakovich outlawed the formation of any crowds. Again, on the 16th anti-protest laws are passed and quickly condemned as “draconian” and the on the 22nd, two protesters died after being hit with live ammunition. A third died following a fall during confrontation with police. Then as the pressure kept building from the people, on January 28th, Mykola Azarov resigned as Ukraine’s prime minister and the parliament repealed the anti-protest laws that caused the demonstrations to escalate in the first place.
On January 29th, a bill was passed, promising amnesty for arrested protesters if seized government buildings are relinquished. Then on January 21st the opposition activist Dmytro Bulatov was found outside Kiev after being imprisoned and tortured for eight days, apparently at the hands of a pro-Russian group. This merely intensified the protests and on February 16th, the opposition activists ended their occupation of Kiev City Hall in exchange of 234 jailed protesters.
Yet more street clashes continued leaving at least 18 dead and around a hundred injured and then on February 18th, major violence began when protesters attacking police lines after the parliament stalls in passing constitutional reform to limit presidential powers. Protesters took back the government buildings. Then on the 20th, Kiev saw its worst day of violence for almost 70 years. At least 88 people were killed within 48 hours. Footage showed government snipers shooting at protesters from rooftops, yet nobody would ever be prosecuted.
Ukraine-Livi
Protest leaders, the political opposition and Yanukovich agreed to form a new government and hold early elections by May 25th on February 21st. Yanukovich’s powers were reduced sharply and the parliament voted to free Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister, from prison, which it had refused to do as a demad by the EU in signing the Agreement. Yanukovich flees Kiev after protesters take control of the capital. Finally, on February 22nd, the Ukraine politicians vote to remove Yanukovich and Tymoshenko was freed from prison speaking to those gathered in Kiev.
On February  23rd, pro-Russian protesters begin to rally in Crimea against the new Kiev administration. The next day, the Ukrainian interim government drew up a warrant for Yanukovich’s arrest.
While Ukraine left the Soviet Union on Sat., Aug. 24, 1991 (1991.6465753), here we find from start to finish was 26 months from the first step to open up with the EU. Here the pretend analysts all claimed that Ukraine was a CIA plot demeaning the people of Ukraine for their uprising. Yes, the US was in there as was the EU trying to hand pick their own leaders. But the uprising was that of the people. That is the only thing that changes the real balance of power.
In this case, from the first protest on November 24th to the removal of Yanukovich, it was 91 days or 13 weeks. Once again, the Revolution Cycle can take place in as little as 13 weeks or twice as long to 26 weeks. The point is – things can happen fast if the people become inspired.

My advice – talk to the people not Kim.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Panic Cycles are either a big move in one direct, or they are outside reversals. direction change cements that as the high.

Panic Cycles are Different From Volatility

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You model called for a Panic Cycle on the 8th and Directional Change in the Dow. Then a rise in volatility starting the 9th, So the difference is the Panic Cycle was an outside reversal and then the direction change cemented that as the high. The volatility then kicks in which the break. I have that all correct? This is just amazing how you pick the day of the high every time. But you can pick these wild days and then forecast volatility as well. This is far beyond anything out there.
Definitely see you in Orlando.
PD
ANSWER: Yes, that is correct. Panic Cycles are either a big move in one direct, or they are outside reversals that exceed and penetrate the previous low. That is distinguished from the three main types of volatility.

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Brain will engage in reflexive feed-forward computations

AI – Beyond Complexity – 11 Dimensions within our Own Mind

QUESTION:
Hi Martin,
First, thanks for this article (on Facebook shutting down AI)
It is the first non-sensacionalist and serious post I read on this topic.
Although, I found it somehow contradictory.
Your main statement is that all the history is cyclical.
But in this post you say “Therefore, we can create a computer that remembers the past like a dog and projects into the future without actually conceptualizing what the future might truly mean as is the case with a dog.”
Why this fact would make AI weaker?
Isn’t it your future forecasting obtained from “the data from the past you collected”?
Thanks so much in advance,
Regards from Spain
F
ANSWER: The computer can determine the cycle from all the collective data interlaced from around the world. It can forecast turning points decades in advance. But that does not mean it comprehends what the future really is as to a human being. It may seem to be a subtle distinction, but it is the difference between a computer and a conscious being that also knows it has a shelf-life and will grow old and die. I am working hard to deliver Socrates because I have a shelf-life. It is the only way to allow such research to continue beyond my life-span. I do this for posterity for it has taught me so much. It will most likely only be recognized by mainstream after my death and then they will try to discredit it by crafting stories about me personally attacking the creator because they cannot dispute the research Socrates reveals. That is simply how human nature operates historically. Someone one day will quote this very line I just wrote. That is inevitable. Welcome to humanity.
The concept of the future is hard to express in words but I can say to you  let’s go to dinner next Tuesday. You can conceptualize the future and say yes or you will be busy can we make it Wednesday? That is a dynamic conception laced with many aspects in our mind. A dog has no concept of tomorrow. A computer can project turning points into the future from the past, but it does not have a concept of the future. It is simply just math – very black and white void of emotion.
There is another hidden order of dynamic multi-dimensional structure we do not understand yet with the human mind. The formal link between neural network structure and how the brain actually functions in processing information does not truly exist and anyone claiming to have some neural net to predict the future is just nonsense. Those claiming to have created AI programs using a neural net to forecast markets is more-likely-than-not just a consumer fraud or simply another model destined to fail. We do not yet understand neural networks in our own brain so we cannot duplicate it in programming.
On top of that, neuroscientists have used a classic branch of math in a totally new way to peer into the structure of our brains. What they’ve discovered is hard for us to even visualize that the brain is full of multi-dimensional geometrical structures operating in as many as 11 dimensions.
We live in a 3-D world perspective. We are not yet capable of understanding how there can be 11 dimensions all interacting. What is the structure? How does this even function? The results of this new study is the next frontier in trying to understand the fabric of the human brain, which somehow is the machine used by our mind that is our consciousness distinguished from the brain itself.
The human brain, by the way, is the most complex structure we know of no less an amazing super-computer. And someone wants to claim they have an AI computer neural net to forecast markets? Good luck with that one. How can you create a neural net we do not yet understand to forecast something that is so complex, it defies description? If we do not yet understand how such a neural net functions in our own brain, how can you write as computer program to mimic such a neural net? How can some neural net suddenly evolve and become conscious if we do not even understand the structure at the core level?
This latest brain model was produced by a team of researchers from the Blue Brain Project, a Swiss research initiative devoted to building a supercomputer-powered reconstruction of the human brain. They used algebraic topology, a branch of mathematics used to describe the properties of objects and spaces regardless of how they change shape. They found that groups of neurons connect into ‘cliques’, and that the number of neurons in a clique would lead to its size as a high-dimensional geometric object (a mathematical dimensional concept, not a space-time one).
“We found a world that we had never imagined,” said the lead researcher, neuroscientist Henry Markram from the EPFL institute in Switzerland. “There are tens of millions of these objects even in a small speck of the brain, up through seven dimensions. In some networks, we even found structures with up to 11 dimensions.”
We live in three spatial dimensions plus one time dimension, which we have yet to fully understand as well. Here, the 11 dimensions are how the neuron cliques are connected. Networks are viewed in a structure in terms of groups of nodes that are all connected, which is known as cliques. The number of neurons in a clique determines its size or dimension. The human brain is estimated to have 86 billion neurons, which is a stunning number in itself. These then have multiple connections from each cell webbing in every possible direction. This structure forms a vast cellular network that somehow makes us capable of thought and consciousness that we do not understand.
The Blue Brain Project team focused on the neocortex, which is thought to be the most recently evolved part of our brains, and the one involved in some of our higher-order functions like cognition and sensory perception. Algebraic topology provides mathematical tools for discerning details of the neural network both in a close-up view at the level of individual neurons, and a grander scale of the brain structure as a whole. Connecting these two levels, the researchers could discern high-dimensional geometric structures in the brain, formed by collections of tightly connected neurons (cliques) and the empty spaces (cavities) between them.
What they discovered was amazing structural dynamic complexity, which is really what I discovered taking place with the interconnections globally within the world economy. “It is as if the brain reacts to a stimulus by building [and] then razing a tower of multi-dimensional blocks, starting with rods (1D), then planks (2D), then cubes (3D), and then more complex geometries with 4D, 5D, etc,” according to mathematician Ran Levi from Aberdeen University in Scotland.
What I find so fascinating is that the very same structure emerges at a higher level whereby all humans interact globally in the same manner dynamically shifting and reorganizing structures. What they have discovered I see in the development of Socrates but at a higher level suggesting this is indeed fractal in nature.
Socrates is now beyond 150,000 possible daily patterns in the Global Market Watch. This is just stunning. It is like building a sand castle on the beach creating an elaborate structure which is washed away by the sea in the morning. Both in our mind and within Socrates, we have human thought and action capable of creating dynamic structures to solve or react to some event and then vanish awaiting the next problem to rebuild a completely new structure. This multi-dimensional ability to respond to stimuli is just amazing. I see this is capital flows on a grand scale – ever shifting creating new trends and structure. Tracking this dynamic interlaced structure of the entire world is the same with these 11 dimensions in our biological brain.
How do we dream in concepts that are very imaginative abstracts of reality? We can imagine in a dream concepts and objects that could not exist in the real world like the drawing above that could not exist in reality. We know that the rear portion of our brain gets pretty active during REM sleep, when most dreaming occurs. Some believe that it’s just the brain winding down for the night and that dreams are random and meaningless firings of the brain that we don’t have when we’re awake. There is  simply no answer to the question: Why do we dream? I can personally attest to it is not random nor is it just meaningless firings of the brain that we don’t have when we’re awake. There have been complex problems I have thought about with no answer when awake. Yet it is “on my mind” still when I sleep. Suddenly I have woke up in the middle of the night saying “eureka” that’s the answer. This has happened way too many times to support a theory of meaningless randomness.
Take this picture of a girl in the water. Your mind will fill in the blanks as to what you think she looks like. Your mind will create an image that pleases you yet you have not seen her (her picture is at the bottom). Why does the mind fill in the gaps? To the right is another famous drawing. How old is the woman that you see? Is it the mother-in-law or the pretty girl. Which did your mind see first? The mother-in-law with the big nose looking down or the young girl wearing a necklace turned away?
Here is another famous drawing. What animal do you see? The duck with its beak slightly open or the rabbit with its ears pointing to the left? Our mind is capable of creating images from fragments.
To add to all this stunning complexity, we can access data we have stored in our brain for decades from all the five senses. You may hear a song and that will access some event in our past where you perhaps had dinner with someone you fell in love with at least temporarily. Then again, you may return to the place you had that event and suddenly remember that dinner. You might have had some food that night and suddenly you will remember that same event. We can access a memory from any of our senses for our brain is recording everything even if we do not realize it.

There is significant evidence demonstrating that we possess “core object recognition” which is the ability to rapidly recognize objects despite substantial appearance variation. Our brain will engage in reflexive feed-forward computations which will produce a powerful neuronal representation in the inferior temporal cortex. Precisely how our brain creates an algorithm that produces this solution remains a mystery. Nevertheless, we have evidence ranging from individual neurons that build into neuronal populations creating a behavior evolving into computational models. We seem to dynamically create computational models, each based on building blocks of small, canonical sub-networks with a common functional goal. Our sand castles that dissolve and then regroup to solve the next problem.

So sorry, I do not buy that consciousness will suddenly emerge and a computer will be endowed with an evil soul out to rule the world. In my opinion, the complexity is far too extensive for us to understand how our own mind works yet in order to build some neural network that will turn against us. My suggesting is that Elon Musk and crew should stop worrying about AI and start to try to comprehend what we are all about first.