Sunday, November 30, 2014

Gold is now poised for new lows heading eventually into the Benchmark Targets

Swiss Reject the Gold & Immigration Referendums

In today’s Swiss gold referendum, roughly 78% voted against expanding central bank gold reserves to 20% of central bank assets from the current 7%, according to Swiss national broadcaster SRF. The polls proved correct and this was behind the sharp collapse in gold on Friday. Those who keep preaching a gold standard have lost all real support in the one country that could have taken such a view. Today’s vote is a blow to the movement to “Save Our Swiss Gold” that had the hopes of moving Switzerland back toward a gold standard which the country left in 1999. Gold is now poised for new lows heading eventually into the Benchmark Targets.
The Swiss voters also rejected the restriction on immigration as reported by the BBC. The majority of the Swiss again saw clearly that blocking wealth immigration would be the straw that breaks the back of the nation.
What the Swiss now need is a referendum to return the nation’s secrecy laws and reclaim its historical neutrality. Failing to accomplish that will leave the world trend in a dangerous convergence of authoritarianism.

A year-end closing for oil BELOW $75 in crude will have a very serious impact

Making Gasoline from Water? Yep!

A German company says it has developed an engineering installation capable of synthesizing petroleum-based fuels from water and carbon dioxide. The ‘power-to-liquid’ rig converts gases extracted from water into liquid hydrocarbon fuels. This is the opposite side of what happens with trying to use energy as a weapon. Raising the price or trying to curtail supply, forces others to find alternatives. A year-end closing for oil BELOW $75 in crude will have a very serious impact.
Russia gets most of its oil in difficult places. Its cost of production is around $65. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have much easier oil to extract and as such they fear that Russia may move in simply for the oil. The collapse in oil will have a very profound impact in the world economy. The top exporter is Saudi Arabia with Russia holding the second spot. Iran and Iraq come in 3rd and 4th. Declining oil prices renders all these governments economically in trouble. Their budgets have risen assuming higher oil prices forever, but when we forecast that oil would rise to $100 back when it was $10 in 1999, many assumed we were nuts and that the world could not handle such a price. That was necessary we warned to spark alternative fuels. Today we have electric cars.

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Chaos Theory – You Can Map Any Market to Reveal the Hidden Order


One of the interesting questions at IDFA was have I solved Chaos Theory? I am not sure that needs to be solved. The problem we have is confined to our mind and trying to translate concepts into words to facilitate expressing what we think is linear thought but is not. This is the Lorenz strange attractor that governs convection in liquids. This demonstrates that our weather appears to be unpredictable, yet this unpredictability is confined within parameters which is one hall-mark of non-linearity.
Within this strange attractor, trajectories appear to jump around, taking hair-pin turns, reversing and re-reversing without warning that to the novice may seem to be without rhyme or reason. Yet this unpredictability is constantly orbiting within the overall shape of the strange attractor that is actually the universe of this system mapping out all the possible states the system can be in at any given moment. Each point on this strange attractor is the state of the entire system at one given moment.
If you are in Western basic culture, you are taught the alphabet. Children can recite the alphabet with little problem when they sing it. Teachers for years taught the alphabet by creating a song. If the police pull you over to test if you had too much to drink, one test they will conduct is to have you recite the alphabet without singing the song. We have learned the sequence of the alphabet attacking it to the sensory input of sound.
Now recite the alphabet backwards without singing. What happens? You suddenly have to think hard. Most people cannot even complete that task in a single go. Many will perhaps try to visualize the alphabet as it appeared in some printed form and read it backwards from that image in their mind if they can visualize it.
This exercise demonstrates rather important points. First, in many respects we learn certain things in a linear fashion and store that sequence in a part of our memory reserved for memorization. Many of us will play the song in our head but try to recite the sequence without the jingle, but this becomes a conscious mental exercise. This clearly involves two mental tasks – memorization and sound. To overcome that problem of trying to reverse sequence a linear memorization, we resort to a visual representation of the alphabet to read it backwards. Resorting to a visual representation reveals our capacity to process data (knowledge) in a non-linear manner that is more akin to a supercomputer dynamically linking bits of information (knowledge) that can be accessed from various sensory access paths.
It turns out that non-linear systems which are massively unpredictable from moment to moment if we try to solve the next plot purely in a linear basis. Nevertheless, non-linear systems are still bounded. Map all the possible states the system can be in, and you find a shape, which forms the strange-attractor. All the system’s many states exist within the confines of the strange-attractor’s shape. Every possible trajectory, no matter how it may appear to be unconnected to the previous is always some complex orbit within this shape – this strange-attractor.
Fractal Markets
I have not solved some mystery, but simply enabled a better observation of what appears to be chaos on the surface, yet is structured order merely hidden below. Markets are fractal – not linear progression as 99% of analysis presumes. In every field of science from medicine to physics, we build upon the learning of generations that have gone before us with the single exception economics. With every crash and crisis, they form a committee who never asks even once – Has anyone tried this solution before? Did it work?
History repeats because we are indeed within a Strange-Attractor. We have mapped the possible outcomes and observed that we are condemned to repeat the past because we are indeed within this system. Until we learn how to live within the system rather than fight it, we will remain within this chaotic appearance of non-linear system that everyone tries to manipulate on a linear basis like lowering interest rates to “stimulate” the economy, which has NEVER worked even once.
We will be adding to the system your ability to map the shape of any given market filtered through our Chaos Models to uncover the hidden order that lies beneath the appearance of chaos on the surface. Markets, like weather, are NOT random chaos. They are ordered structures that we do not see because we are still singing the alphabet song. We need to visualize the alphabet to then recite it in reverse to break the linear sequence that we learned. Look at this alphabet. Picture it in your mind (1), close your eyes, and now read it backwards from that image. Interesting mind demonstration of pattern recognition and the ability to access data by sight, sound, taste, feel, and smell. Using two inputs rather than just one to access info is non-linear dynamic thinking.
  1. If you cannot visualize it don’t jump and end it all. We all have one favored input just like we favor writing left or right handing. Some people can visualize better while others taste or smell subtle differences other do not, and then there is sound. If you can visualize, your are better at recognizing chart patterns as one example.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

18K on the Dow by mid-Dec. Dow at 23K-26K by Sept '15. Exceeding that area, Dow up to 40k-43k

The Dow – Starting a Cycle Inversion?

DJIND-D 11-19-2014
 The golden rule of trading is just this -
What goes sideways when it should move up or down, moves in the opposite direction even stronger.
Where we achieved the temp low in gold on the target week of 11/03, the Dow has moved sideways and is crawling along resistance. Given the G20 position of walking away from bank bailouts, leaving the Cyprus bail-in solution still open, smart money is starting to move off the grid in a very big way. We are tracking capital flows very closely right now. It appears this target on the Cycle of War has an impact.
Of course, then we have the really brain-dead behavior of world leaders acting as if this is high school – Don’t talk to Putin or shake his hand because he didn’t do what I told him to do! With such immature behavior on the part of this Gang of 20 pretending to be world leaders, I have never seen such stupidity. I was just asked are there any world leaders with whom I could have a serious discussion? My reply – no! I have yet to meet anyone since Maggie Thatcher who was smart enough to talk about real strategy without a teleprompter or aids explaining in an ear piece. This seems to be what the bureaucracy wants. While the cat is suffering from dementia, the mice can play.
DJFOR-W 11-19-2014
The Dow is crawling along daily resistance. Timing should have worked normally. A high in November should have been followed by a drop back into the week of 12/15. What will not go down, only goes up. If we close higher this week and see new highs next week, it looks like we are headed into the low 18,000 level on the Dow by mid December.
DJIND-W 11-19-2014
 We have the seasonal turning point of January. The key resistance is at the 18133 to 18200 level as the weeks move forward. This has been the top of the Primary Breakout Channel from the ECM turn back in 2011. This channel has performed perfectly containing everything up and down. If we start to break out above this channel and close above it on a weekly basis, this is the warning that we may see the Dow at the 23000-26000 by next September. Exceeding that area will warn of a possible real blast in a Phase Transition that can take the Dow up to 40,000-43,000.
Fundamentally, who knows. There are too many variables to nail it down to just even a few reasons. We have the Sovereign Debt Crisis, the potential for international war, and major civil unrest. YET this is just the beginning. Add in pensions, bank failures, G20, and a host of other reasons, and some people will respond to one type of event while others will select a different fundamental. This is what is wrong with those who try to predict the trend with fundamentals. They reduce it to one reason and it never can be just one. We are not robots. Everyone will respond appropriately based upon their view.
So pay attention. What will not go down when the cycles shift, inverts and rises even further. There is always a reason for what markets do – you just have to pay very close attention. This is why I have been warning a cycle inversion is coming. We may be in that process now starting from November 19th/20th.

Sunday, November 16, 2014

G20 Targets the Week of the Cycle of War


G20-Australia-Nov 15-16
The G20 Leaders’ Summit for 2014 is being held on November 15th and 16th in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. The principal meeting venue will be the Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre. There will be as many as 4,000 delegates and 3,000 media representatives in attendance.
It is curious that the comes right in line with the turn in the Cycle of War that is ideally targeting November 19th/20th this week. The Leaders’ Summit is the key important event in the G20 year calendar. While the summit is supposed to provide a valuable opportunity for leaders to discuss a wide range of global economic issues and to use their collective power to improve people’s lives as they market, the truth is just about anything but that. The first summit was in 1985 and it was all about trying to coordinate market manipulation by ganging together. For you see, they experienced that nobody could manipulate the dollar not even the Fed. Hence, the first meeting was known as the G5 (Group of 5 aka Gang of 5). Latter other countries wanted to join so it became the G8. Today it is known as the G20.
Of course, that G5 manipulation created total havoc in the world economy. Its goal was rather stupid. They assumed that is they could lower the value of the dollar, they would create export jobs. I went public about this and warned they would increase volatility that would culminate in a market crash as capital fled the USA. That happened precisely to the day of the ECM on October 19th, 1987.
I was then called in by the Brady Commission to help in the investigation of the cause of the Crash. There were the typical expectations that a huge short-player caused the event. It was the G5. They look at everything with a one-dimensional view. Although they gather together still every year, they no longer try to manipulate the markets.
In 1997, the memories grew short. Here we had the Asian Currency Crisis and at that time it was Robert Rubin trying to talk the dollar down once again for trade. I had to write once more to warn them what they were doing was insane.
Geithner TimThis time, Timothy Geithner had to respond saying of course they would not do that sort of thing. Indeed, they seemed to back off and listened for once. I was then summoned by Beijing. I flew to meet with the central bank of China to assist in the Asian Currency crisis. They stated bluntly that they believe in our analysis and that we were correct in showing that capital was starting to shift away from Asia because the birth of the Euro was coming on board in 1998. China has publicly announced that they are now using the analysis we pioneered – Capital Flow Analysis. The mad rush was trying to get into Europe before they feared it was too late.
So all the question coming in about the G20, this is the real behind-the-curtain truth of what goes on. It has turned into a club meeting where they might as well be wearing hats with ears. The Summit, leaders will release a communiqué which outlines the G20 policy discussions and commitments. But let’s get real here – they have been coordinating on how to track money and agree to give up everyone everywhere because they are ALL BROKE!
obama-nobel-Peace Prize
Putin has already said he will leave the summit early when work is done implying he will not socialize because of the actions of Obama. Well as far as the Biblical saying Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God (Matthew 5:9), guess Obama figures he was given the Nobel Peace Prize and that counts; so why try to earn something you already have?  The problem, I think they gave him the Nobel Prize for being the first black President, certainly for nothing he ever did. This man has done far more damage to world peace that any President since Truman.
So here we are. Strangely the Cycle of War targets this week. I have no idea what to expect. This cycle is both international war and domestic. They have converged for the first time since the 1700s. We are seeing the rise in tensions everywhere both internationally and domestically. Is the G20 the kick-starter?

Governments create crashes !

China Adopted our Capital Flow Models

Intl-Capital-Flows 2
COMMENT: The conference must have been exhausting, I know there is so much work and preparation that these events require. A lot to catch up on but firstly; I saw this headline yesterday and thought I would forward to you! If you ever needed assurance that China were following the model (which I know you don’t as knew anyway) here they openly declare following capital flows.
Thoroughly enjoyed [Conference] and actually find myself using it as reference material time and time again. Also, I liked the link into Merkel article and how Europe could reflect in the future.

PBOC to Monitor New Global, Domestic Economic Development
2014-04-03 09:36:58.190 GMT
By Bloomberg News
April 3 (Bloomberg) — People’s Bank of China will
“closely monitor” new global and domestic economic and
financial development, as well as changes in international
capital flows, according to a statement on monetary policy
committee meeting posted on PBOC website.
* China’s current economic operations are “within reasonable
range,” PBOC says
* PBOC says China to continue prudent monetary policy
* PBOC says China to keep “appropriate” liquidity
* PBOC says China to deepen financial reform
* PBOC reiterates promoting interest rate liberalization and
yuan exchange rate mechanism reform
* PBOC reiterates keeping yuan basically stable
* China’s consumer prices are “basically stable,” PBOC says
* China’s financial operations are stable, PBOC says
Link to statement:
REPLY: Virtually every major government is following our models. Yes, I met with China directly and they had a printed copy of everything I ever wrote and read it. This is why they also came out and stated “we need each other” to the USA. That is a reflection of understanding capital flows and China will be the next financial capital of the world because the West is still defending Marxism. Many representatives from major governments attend our conferences and some reveal who they are while others choose to say nothing. We have even had members of the Royal Family from the Middle East fly in this time. The CIA acknowledged we were the inventor of capital flow analysis. Here is the 1987 Crash from a capital flow analysis perspective.
I have spent untold amounts of money building this analysis back for thousands of years to see HOW everything functions over time and if it has ever changed. This demonstrates you cannot manage the economy domestically in isolation – we do need each other as China has come out an publicly stated and we are ALL connected. Imposing economic sanctions on Iran alters the flows of gold and imposing sanctions on Russia is causing the USA to export energy to Europe. Every single action has a series of reactions that ripple through the entire global economy.

Politicians know nothing about what they are doing. Why did the S&L Crisis unfold? Because Democrats came in and altered the tax codes to get more money as always and impacted the write off in real estate creating a one way market – SELL. Then they blamed S&Ls when they were regulated and told to invest in real estate. Every single economic collapse is set in motion by GOVERNMENT. Never has any investigation ever turned up a single private cause.
The Plaza accord starting the G5 (now G20) to manipulate the dollar down by 40% in order to reduce the US trade deficit, created the 1987 Crash and sent capital rushing back to Japan that they did not understand creating the 1989 Bubble. Now Europe is trying to outlaw short-selling thinking that will stop the collapse. That will accelerate the fall.

geithneirGeithner TimHere is my letter to Rubin in 1997 when he was starting the same stupid stuff trying to talk the yen up for trade. After I sent this letter, he shut up. Someone has to remind these clowns about reality. It was Geithner who had to reply. Nonetheless, the 1997 Currency Crisis unfolded.

The analytic community is in denial because they still try to make things personal and pretend that personal ability to reason is the key and we can alter the future. I have tried hard to demonstrate that the key is being unbiased and just let the economy show you the answer. We have spent vast amounts of money to collect databases from ancient times to date to see how capital flows dictate war and even the rise and fall of nations. Some have tried to mock the idea that there can be a cycle to war, yet they have never attempted any such analysis demonstrating their bias that precludes any advancement. Yet they persist in trying to criticize what they do not understand nor have ever attempted to test.
Marx and Keynes I classify as the great interventionists because they did not try to discover HOW the economy functions, but tried to change it to function the way they THOUGHT would be better. We cannot alter the entire world to do as we desire. That is just impossible. It is like Joseph in the Bible who warns the Pharaoh that there will be 7 years of plenty and 7 years of drought. If we understand and go with the flow, we will survive.
This is why economics is all wrong. It assumes the ability to change the economy from a domestic perspective exclusively. This is not a fish bowl where everything is controllable. Academics and politicians fail to grasp it is a global economy and that is beyond their manipulative power to control. Raising taxes reduces living standards and economic growth. But politicians love the power to say “vote for me and I will steal from the rich and give it to you to create “social justice”.” Sorry, but everyone is rewarded according to the God given gifts and what they produce. We are all not opera singers and just try to given everyone in a class the same grade and call that “social justice” and see what happens. Those who study will stop because they will get the same grade and someone who does nothing. Even the 10 Commandments states it is a sin to covet thy neighbor’s goods. Why? Obviously it leads to a collapse in the rule of law and the fragmentation of the economy.
As long as analysts are on ego trips, they will never discover HOW the world functions. Do you watch your opponent and pay attention to when he will throw the next punch or lecture him on how you think he should punch in the middle of a match? Let the markets speak for they hold all the answers. They are NEVER wrong. Theories people craft from random walks to what should be money only prevent people from learning the truth. The object is to go with the flow – do not try to change that flow for there is far more complexity involved than meets the eye.
Yes. China adopted our capital flow analysis. 

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Iran & The Fate of the Middle East


 The Iranian Rial

The Iranian Rial has come under tremendous pressure. Internally, the currency is depreciating in purchasing power at an astonishing rate. Internationally (illustrated here), the Rial has fallen generally to the 123.50 level from the 79 to the dollar level back in 2003. Internally, the Rial has just suffered one of the most cataclysmic crashes in the recent history of the foreign exchange markets since there is no viable access to the international markets. On the black-market, It has plummeted 72% since the beginning of 2011. The geopolitical implications for the U.S. and the world are enormous for if Syria goes, Iran will be the last rogue state hostile to the U.S. and the West in the Middle East. However, we must keep in mind that the driving force behind the Iranian Revolution that overthrew the Shah was religion. The Shah left Iran January 16th, 1979. The revolutionary movement was the Religious Right as it always poses the greatest danger to society in any religion. History is littered with the movement of religious right wing movements that seek to seize political power to force their beliefs upon everyone. Remember Oliver Cromwell? He killed the king, then put his own portrait on the coinage as the new religious right Puritan Protector of the people. Of course he outlawed Christmas, sports, plays, and made it a felony to kiss your wife in public.

It was the extreme right that saw the death of Nero in 68AD as an opportunity to revolt against Rome since there was no Julio-Claudian successor. What the Jews did not count on was the usurpation of power by generals. Vespasian had to destroy the Temple to demonstrate his power to head the Roman Empire. Let one state leave and the empire would have crumbled. The Pilgrims who came to America were the extremists within the Puritan movement. Even the term “April Fool” referred to the religious right who refused to accept the current calendar because the Pope revised it. They continued to celebrate the start of the New Year as April rather than January. Religion has played a endless role in revolutions. Recall Constantine claiming to see a cross in the sky to inspire his troops to fight fellow Christians and to destabilize the convictions of the opposing army. Here, the Iranian Revolution of 1979 was the religious right extremists who believe that the state should not be separate from religion. Hence they seek the destruction of not just Israel, but the overthrow of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt just for starters. It is this undercurrent which is not wiped out, but is starting to teeter against the most powerful tool of all for political change – economics.


The last attempted revolution in Iran was in 2009 as the world economy plummeted. That attempt was successfully suppressed with an iron fist. There is now an undercurrent that is rising once again but this time it includes the merchants who have lost a fortune in the face of the collapse of the currency. Here is a chart of quotes purported to be the black market in Iran. There is a growing youth movement in Iran that wants to join the tide of globalization – Arab Spring. The older religious right elements are fighting hard just as we see the religious right in the United States trying to use the rule of law to further their own agenda as every religious right movement has always done throughout history. Since 1979, when the Shah was deposed, a succession of religious extremists have dominated Iran. We are looking at the end of that cycle is also lining up for 2032. The real encouragement will come with the fall of Syria. This will give reinforcement to their resolution to press for freedom and that a regime change becomes possible. After all, unemployment has exceeded 25% equal to that which took place in the United States during the Great Depression that also caused political change. We should expect nothing less in Iranian society. The oil embargo imposed upon Iran has done an amazing job in fueling the fires of political change. They were already burning yet this has fanned the flames in a very decisive manner. What we see in Syria may eventually emerge in Iran once elements of the army begin to look at the collapse of their own pay. Russia and China have slowed the process to some extent giving hope to the political powers that they will survive. Nevertheless, conducting international trade through the back door is expensive, and prices are rocketing. The key will be the military. Even during the financial crisis of Rome during the 3rd Century AD when the denarius collapsed in purchasing power, the key to rise from the ashes of economic collapse was the political destabilization that emerges from the military. For example, in 249AD the Roman troops were quite dissatisfied with the rapidly decaying economic conditions concerning the rising costs or living, debasement of the currency, rising taxation as the demands increased as currency declined in value, and economic stagflation that emerged as prices rose in value but economic growth declined. Emperor Philip I was confronted by a usurper Trajan Decius and he marched out to meet him. They met at Verona in September 249AD. However, the Philip’s troops turned and killed him as well as his son, thus avoiding a battle because they saw no point when their pay was declining. Decius was seen as a viable alternative to economic stagflation. After this event in 249AD, the political collapse of the Roman government was illustrated by the succession of 43 emperors/usurpers by 285AD in just 36 years. Economics is by far the most powerful weapon ever devised to destroy any empire, nation, or city state. This is what took down Communism, the Middle East, and it will destroy Western government thanks to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. That same 36 year time span comes into play precisely with the next peak on our Economic Confidence Model – 2015.75. The Iranian banks have been locked out of the SWIFT international settlements system, which prohibits payment to reach them for oil in international trade. Of course then there is the Standard Chartered immediate money laundering scandal.  The New York banking regulator has accused Standard Chartered of scheming with Iran to launder as much as $250bn (£161bn). According to the New York court filings, Standard Chartered “schemed with the government of Iran and hid from regulators roughly 60,000 secret transactions, involving at least $250bn, and reaping SCB hundreds of millions of dollars in fees. SCB’s actions left the US financial system vulnerable to terrorists, weapons dealers, drug kingpins and corrupt regimes, and deprived law enforcement investigators of crucial information used to track all manner of criminal activity”. Banks have routinely laundered money for big clients and it is known as “wire-stripping” which takes place when a bank alters bank codes to hide the origin of a transaction. This is usually done by changing the code that identifies the beneficiary’s bank. Of course US Federal Prosecutors embellish everything they ever do for they have a personal incentive to overstate cases. The more bullshit they can add to gain press, the higher profile they personally achieve that enables them to shop around for one of those high paying jobs, run for mayor (Rudy Giuliani), run for governor (Eliot Spitzer, Christopher James “Chris” Christie). Then there is the problem of prosecutors being really just political pawns making alleged crimes really political assassinations. There was the dismissal of U.S. Attorneys Controversy initiated by the unprecedented midterm dismissal of seven US Attorneys on December 7, 2006 by the President George W. Bush administration’s Department of Justice that was really taking directions from Dick Cheney. The dismissals reeked or political manipulation where the Department of Justice and the White House were using the U.S. Attorney positions for political advantage. Allegations were that the attorneys targeted were either to impede investigations of Republican politicians or for their failure to initiate investigations that would damage Democratic politicians. The U.S. attorneys were replaced with interim appointees, under provisions in the 2005 USA PATRIOT Act reauthorization that gave this new power to the President as well. These 19 guys and a camel have totally eliminated the Federal Constitution for there is nothing that cannot now be swept aside. If a Federal prosecutor enters your house and rapes your wife, you do not even have a right to have him arrested. Any charges against a federal agent are purely discretionary at the pleasure of government. Nevertheless, the implications for the financial markets will be enormous if a vacuum emerges in the Middle East with the collapse of Iran and Syria. Some are touting that the U.S. will reap a peace dividend equal to the fall of the Soviet Union in 1992. This is not likely and it assumes both Russia and China will sit on their hands. The more likely scenario is that the jockeying for control over the Middle East will then rekindle the cold war. The United States cannot simply walk in and talk whatever it wants in that region. Russia, even more so that China, will make a power-play for that region for it will provide the checkmate move over Europe that Russia has dreamed of since Lenin. Our sources in that area of the world have confirmed that posture is already developing. The Iranian regime has taken the stand that “speculators” are the reason for the Rial’s collapse. This is of course nonsense and is no different than Obama blaming the rich for government’s failure to manage the economy. In the case of Iran, obviously it has been the scantions cutting off Iran from the SWIFT codes blocking its ability to sell oil even on the black market. Food supplies are growing scarcer by the day and the sanction are impacting this as well. There are now even reports surfacing dealing with a shortage of fuel. The police have been called upon to deal with rising street protests. Unlike the Arab Spring driven by the youth, we are starting to see the Middle Class rise up as well. Keep in mind that it was the collapse of the Roman Economy during the 3rdCentury that really led to the widespread acceptance of Christianity. They did not convert people out of the goodness of their heart, passions for their fellow-man, but for the blunt reason that they prayed to their gods, received no help, and turned simply to Christianity. Therefore, keep in mind that evcen religion has been altered historically by economics. Indeed, the rebellion in Syria began in this manner. The Russia Revolution also began over economics. The United States Revolution as the French Revolution were economic driven. Rebellions throughout history unfold according to the underlying economic conditions. If the economy under communism had been sound, there would have been no uprising in 1989. Even China began with a decline in the economy that made communism salable. In Libya we saw them drag Colonel Gaddafi and shot him in the head all economic driven. Monitor the economy, and you will understand the fate of that nation. It is why politicians ALWAYS try to blame external powers or engage in class warfare to divert blame upon themselves. The whole rise of Hitler began with getting the bankers who conveniently were Jews and by-the-way, just get them all and solve the problem. Edward I (1239–1307) also attacked the Jews expelling them under the pretense of religious grounds, but he default on his loans to them and confiscated their property. The Spanish did the same sending the Jews fleeing to Amsterdam making that the new center of the Financial World.
As goes the Rial – so goes Iran.
Those who think that the collapse of Iran will lead to a huge peace dividend and cause the U.S. dollar to rocket off the charts simply presume Russia is powerless. There will be no halving of our defense spending to $400 billion or less combined with the rise in tax revenues would cause the budget deficit to collapse and interest rates will stay at zero forever are just not thinking very rationally. There will be no “peace dividend” and there will be no recovery in U.S. GDP growth causing it to jump to 4%. The idea that the commodities and precious metals will decline as the world enters into a new age of Pax Americana causing the Dow to then soar to 20,000 as the Euro collapses to parity is a dangerous dream of the uneducated. We are by no means approaching a new Golden Age in civilization as a whole. People are still confused about how capital moves. They do not understand that at times its confidence resides with government creating a PUBLIC confidence wave. That is when power rises and consolidates. As that cycle reaches its peak, the abuse of human power always enters the process. The abuse of government sends capital fleeing into the PRIVATE sector. This is why the Dow is rising, not because the market is anticipating a new Golden Age. That is just nonsense.
Here are the Forecasting Arrays for the Rial. Note that we have a Panic Cycle Year in 2013. It is interesting how the computer determines such events that are clearly geopolitical based solely upon the movement of the markets. They clearly reflect the changing trends in the attitudes of the people.


Constantine Saint or just another Political Fraud?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read your take on Constantine that he was just another politician who told his troops he saw a vision in the sky. He then had his troops put crosses on their shields because he faced an army twice his size and that his opponent was Christian who built the first Christian Church in Rome. I suppose this is what you mean by the Establishment Academics manufacture history. Is there any other evidence that brought you to that conclusion?
AE Follis 325-328 Christian Symbol
ANSWER:  There was only one coin ever issued just one time by Constantine with any Christian symbol. This was issued briefly in 327-328AD and is quite rare. All his other coins are standard Pagan type issues even years after his victory at the Battle of the Milvian Bridge that took place between the Roman Emperors Constantine I and Maxentius on October 28th, 312. Constantine entered Rome on October 29th. He staged a grand entrance into the city. He did everything possible to pretend it was a popular jubilation. He ordered Maxentius’ body to be fished out of the Tiber River where he had drowned and decapitated the corpse parading he head on a pike through the streets of Rome  for all to see.
Licinius-I-(Fcing AU)
Shortly after his victory, in February 313, Constantine met with Licinius in Milan, where they developed the Edict of Milan. The edict stated that Christians should be allowed to follow the faith without oppression. While this removed penalties for professing Christianity and returned all confiscated Church property, the edict ALSO protected from religious persecution ALL religions. This was the birth of freedom of religion allowing anyone to worship whichever deity they chose - not the state decree of Christianity.
Before the victory over Maxentius, another similar edict had been issued in 311 by
who was the senior emperor under the Tetrarchy that began the process granting Christians the right to practice their religion. Therefore, Constantine did not initiate anything in that regard.
Constantine certainly did not patronize Christianity alone. After gaining victory in the Battle of the Milvian Bridge in 312AD, he constructed in 315AD a triumphal arch that still stands by the Colosseum. —the Arch of Constantine. The arch is decorated with images of the goddess Victoria. At the time of its dedication, sacrifices to gods like Apollo, Diana, and Hercules were made. Absent from the Arch are any depictions of Christian symbolism whatsoever.
Later in 321, we end up with Christmas being December 25th for Constantine instructed that Christians and non-Christians should be united in observing the venerable day of the sun, referring to the sun-worship that Aurelian had established as an official cult. This became Christmas since nobody knew the birth date of Christ. This was a political move by Constantine. Nevertheless, despite his alleged conversion to Christianity, Constantine’s coinage continued to carry the symbols of the sun – not Christian. Other than this single coin issued 327-328, there are no other Christian symbols on coinage of Constantine.
Constantine’s new capital of the Roman Empire by Constantine the Great, after whom it was named, and dedicated on 11 May 330. Even when Constantine dedicated the new capital of Constantinople, which became the seat of Byzantine Christianity for a millennium, he did so wearing the Apollonian sun-rayed Diadem; no Christian symbols were present at this dedication. He issued special coins to commemorate the opening. However, again there is an absence of Christian symbols.
Constantine’s monetary policy clearly used religion as a cover no different from taxing just the rich or global warming are used today to hide the real thirst for money. The money supply of Constantine increased in direct proportion with measures of his confiscation of the wealth of Pagan temples. Beginning in 331AD until about 336AD, all gold, silver and bronze statues from pagan temples were declared as imperial property and, as such, as monetary assets. Two imperial commissioners for each province had the task of getting hold of the statues and having them melded for immediate minting into coinage to fund all his expenses. There were few exception such as a number of bronze statues that were used as public monuments for the beautification of the new capital in Constantinople.
The persecution of pagans in the late Roman Empire began late during the reign of Constantine the Great, when he ordered the pillaging and the tearing down of some temples. The first anti-Pagan laws by the Christian state only started with Constantine’s son Constantius II, who was a more unyielding opponent of paganism. It was Constantius II who actually ordered the closing of all pagan temples and forbade Pagan sacrifices under pain of death. He also removed the traditional Altar of Victory from the Senate, not his father. It was under the latter Constantius II’s reign when ordinary Christians started vandalizing many of the ancient Pagan temples, tombs and monuments.
Constantine’s mother, Helena, was a real devoted Christian. She traveled the Holy land and built churches everywhere something took place. She built the churches in Bethlehem and the church that enclosed Calvary and Christ’s Tomb.

ScepterNonetheless, Constantine strangely issued coinage with Sol – the sun-god, well after his victories. He also did not bother to get baptized until on his death-bed. Some have argued he did not get Baptized until he died for that would remove all sins in his life. Clever – but risky. There is no empirical evidence that he confronted a Pagan army. Curiously enough, the many Christians following Maxentius did not embrace Constantine. Proof of this fact is that the conquering emperor would seize the scepter of his opponent. The ONLY scepter to have survived from a Roman Emperor is that of Maxentius. The Christians hid that scepter to deprive Constantine of his moral victory. Why? Who knows. Some have argued because they did not believe Constantine and his claimed vision. They saw him as a fraud. Perhaps. Whatever the issue, the scepter is the only one to survive out of the entire Roman Imperial era. (Note: the Earth is depicted as a globe – not flat).

The first Christian Church remains right there today in the Roman Forum built by Maxentius – not Constantine. These inconsistencies call into question the claims he saw a vision. It was the only way he could defeat Maxentius by disrupting his Christian Army to show them they were not Pagans. He then confiscated all the wealth of the Pagan temples to fund his new city – Constantinople. The proposition that there was one God served him politically arguing there should be just one Emperor as well.
I understand Constantine to many was considered a Saint. The single act of making Christianity the state religion had its economic benefits. That cannot be set aside because of religion. Constantine did not face a Pagan army. That is simply fact.



Constantinople became the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire replacing Rome as the heart of imperial power, it maintained influence and stability in the face of the decline of the West.
In 324 AD, Constantine I the Great defeated rival Emperor Licinius at the battle of Adrianople, laying claim to sole mastery over the entire Roman Empire. He recog nized the need for a new capital to replace Rome, which could no longer serve as the center of defense for the widely spread frontiers on the Rhine and Danube and in the East. A new location had to be found, one easily fortified and centrally situated. In addition, Constantine planned not only to expand Diocletian’s Sweeping reforms but also envi sioned an entirely new world for mankind and planned to overcome the dangerous influences of Rome; which had destroyed other emperors, by establishing a new model for the Empire. At the same time, Rome stood for the paganism of centuries, and Constantine’s faith demanded a new setting, where Christianity could flourish.
Bithynia and Nicomedia and other places in Asia had appeal, but none could be defended adequately, and some even presented themselves as targets for Persian attack. Constantine decided on Byzantium, a small city on the edge of the Golden Horn, on the Strait of the Bosporus, a bridge between East and West. Legendary accounts state that Constantine arrived there in November of 324 to march off the measurements for the extended building program, his yardstick being the “Hand of God.” Using the Lance of LONGINUS, the relic that was reported to have pierced the side of Christ while he was on the cross, the emperor started walking from Byzantium; when he stopped two miles later, he gave orders to start construction. Constantinople had seven hills and 14 quarters, as did Rome, and like that city it could not be built in a day. Six years of work followed its founding, and it was not until May 11, 330, that Con stantine could declare the construction completed, and of ficially renamed the city, although changes and modifications never ceased.
Byzantium had been a small community set on a prom ontory between the Golden Horn and the Sea of Marmara. In 194, the town had become embroiled in the war be tween the imperial claimants Septimius Severus and Pescennius Niger After a long and bitter siege, Severus took the walls, and the town fell and suffered the humiliations of defeat. Constantine chose the site, in part because the rocks along its southern shore crushed vessels attempting to land outside the harbor, and the currents of the Bos porus made navigation difficult and sinkings frequent. About 3 ½ miles at its widest, the circumference of the city was some 15 miles. Constantine erected his new edifices around the original structures, eventually called the Augusteum, in honor of his mother Helena.
As the most prominent part of the jutting land mass and the most easily defended, the Augusteum became the spoke in a circle of urban growth that housed the most important offices of state. Nearby were the imperial palaces, the hip podrome and several of the great forums. The emperors and their families resided in the palaces, accompanied by government bureaucrats and ministers, the Scrinaris. Also, the Consistorium met there, and close by the Senate convened. The hippodrome served as the entertainment center for all residents. Smaller than the Circus Maximus, on which it was based, the hippodrome offered great games, chariot races and lavish spectacles, and seated over 60,000.
In the finest Roman tradition, several forums were erected to allow public assemblies and shopping areas, and no expense was spared in bringing the finest artisans and intel lectuals to the city. As in Rome, columns adorned the skyline. In the Forum of Constantine the Emperor was made eternal, with his own head mounted on top of a statue of Apollo at the peak of a column. In the Forum Tauri (from the reign of Theodosius I), one of the emperor’s columns towered above the landscape. Other monuments in the city included those dedicated to Arcadius, Aelia Eudoxia and Marcian, as well as those of Justinian, of a later era. Near the Forum Tauri was the city’s seat of learning, the Capitolium. There young studants from the various provinces studied under the foremost rhetoricians, grammarians, philosophers and academicians of the time. In 425, Theodosius II certified the University of Constantinople, which rivaled those of Antioch, Alexandria and, of course, Athens.
Three periods of growth took place within its borders. The first, from 324 to 330 AD, was when Constantine’s Wall established the perimeters from the Propontis to the Golden Horn. The second was from 330 to about 413 AD; when the population expanded beyond the walls and into the adjoining eastern districts. The last period of growth was from 413 AD to a time well beyond the fall of the Roman Empire in the West, when the walls established newer and wider borders.
Access could be gained through the ports, harbors or gates. The Golden Horn entrances included posts along the seawall and in the harbor of Prosphorion. Two main harbors served Propontis, the Theodosius and the Julian. Chains could be used to seal off the mouths of these harbors. As for the walls, the grand portal of Constantine’s Wall was the Golden Gate. Built by Theodosius I, the gate commemorated his victory over Maximus the usurper in 388 AD. A second Golden Gate loomed at the southern end of the Anthemian Walls (eventually renamed in honor of Theodosius). In the wider series of fortifications, the gates could be used either by the civilian population or the mil itary, depending upon classification. There were five entrances for the army and numerous ones for everyone else.
Entering the Golden Gate, a traveler would proceed north along the Middle Way, the road cutting through the city all the way to the Church of Saint Sophia. It crossed the Lycus River near the harbor of Theodosius and passed through most of the forums and many of the other build ings of importance, including the hippodrome and the Great Palace and the Palace of Hormisdas, constructed during Constantine’s reign to house a Persian prince.
As the center of the Eastern Roman Empire, Constantinople had a population to rival Rome’s anywhere from 500,000 to 800,000 people. Aqueducts supplied the water needs, and Egypt’s fields provided the food. When the number of inhabitants began to outgrow the original boundaries of the city, towns such as Chrysopolis and Chalcedon could assume some of the population burdens. But a more permanent solution had to be found. At the same time, Constantinople needed even more defensive strength in the 4th and 5th centuries A D, as barbarians pillaged in the West and turned on the eastern borders.
Thus, in the first years of the reign of young Theodosius II, his Praetorian Prefect Anthemius took upon himself (c. 408-414 AD) the task of creating the strong fortifications still standing today. Anthemius placed the new wall approximately one mile to the west, along a wider line. Towers and gates, both civil and military, and fortified positions dotted this new structure.
Cyrus, a popular Praetorian prefect and prefect of the city (439 AD), extended the northern wall. No longer relying upon the Blachernae Palace for an anchor, it was linked to the seawall, defending the approaches to the city along the entire coastline. In the middle of the 5th century, a violent earthquake (not uncommon) shook the walls, and a Praetorian prefect by the name of Constantine ordered repairs to be made immediately. Another, smaller outer wall was added. The capacity to withstand attack became essential during the chaotic era of the 4th century. The Huns remained as a constant threat to Constantinople, as did other barbarian tribes. But the city served as a constant bulwark throughout the Late Roman Empire.
Constantine had built his city as a point from which Christianity could spread to the entire world. Thus the city became a center of churches, reflecting the changes within the Roman Empire. The greatest religious structure was Saint Sophia’s Church. Finished around 360 AD, it represented the ideal of Great Wisdom. The church stood until the time of Justinian (ruled 527-565 AD), when the Nika Revolt destroyed it. Its successor was greater than the original. Other magnificent churches included (through the ages) the Holy Apostles, St. Euphemia, Theotokos, St. Irene, St. Thomas, St. Laurentius, St. Diamed, and Theotokos Hodegetria, among others.
A bastion of spiritual authority, Constantinople played a significant role in the evolution of Christian doctrine. From its thrones the Emperors and Empresses directed the implementation of Christianity as the religion of the state. And in bitter theological feuds with such heresies as Arianism, Donatism and Novatianism, the patriarch of Constantinople vied for influence with the Emperors, as Antioch, Alexandria and Rome formed joint and competing alliances.
Theodosius I summoned the Council of Constantinople in 381 AD to reaffirm the Nicene Creed. Theodosius II listened to both sides of a dispute over the nature of Christ but succumbed to the bribes and threats of Cyril of Alexandria over the Nestorians.
Constantinople remained the capital of the Eastern Empire until the fall of the West circa 476 AD, and served as the home of the Byzantine rulers until 1453 AD. In that year, it was finally captured by the Turks.

The Legal & Bureaucractic Reforms of Constantine

The Legal & Bureaucractic Reforms of Constantine

Diocletian had started the many processes of centralization, and Constantine first embraced them and then expanded on them. First he subjected the bureaucracy to a massive overhaul. All ministries were under the command of the MAGISTER OFFICIORUM (master of offices), who supervised the rapidly centralized government. Although this trend had been toward a greater imperial authority, under Constantine’s direction the bureaus grew even weightier, more demanding but mor efficient.
Officers of the civil service rose in rank to wield influence and titles. Finances were administered by the COMES sacrarum largitionum (Count of the Sacred Largesse) and the comes privatae largitionis (Count of the Privy Purse) (see COMES). In legal matters Constantine relied upon the Jurists and his quaester sacri palati (chief legal advisor). All of these reforms found body and substance in the altered CONSILIUM PRINCIPIS, now called the CONSISTORIUM. This council of permanent magistrates and ministers framed the legislative enactments of the imperial will and brought all of the provinces under control. The regions of the Empire were still under the authority of prefectures, but the prefects themselves were more answerable to the imperial house, and the functions of these offices were altered.
Following the battle at Milvian Bridge, Constantine destroyed the CASTRA PRAETORIA, the centuries-old barracks of the PRAETORIAN GUARD. The Praetorians were disbanded and their prefects stripped of military duties. They retained their political and legal powers, however, overseeing the DIOCESE of the prefecture. In the place of the Guard, the DOMESTICI of Diocletian, along with the PALATINI, emerged as the military powers.
Now Constantine recognized the need to make a parallel military structure that would mirror the improved governmental body. He thus organized the army into two main classes, the COMITATENSES and the LIMITANEI. The comitatenses was the emperor’s mobile army. The limitanei stood in the ways of war and in the art of leading others. A ruthless character was tempered by the Christian doctrine. A complex personality, Constantine stood as the corner stone of a new age.

Change in Status of Cities
London at this time was one of the western emperor’s most active mints, but it was destined to be permanently closed down about 325 AD, soon after the victory over Licinius had made Constantine master of the entire empire and given him control of the great minting establishments of the East.
The northern Italian cities of Ticinum and Milan were the nerve centers of Constantine’s government in the half decade. The frequent presence of the emperor and his court resulted in the production at Ticinum of some attractive and unusual types in gold, both solidi and multiple denominations (medallions). The latter would have been specially minted as imperial gifts to high officials and dignitaries on state occasions The Ticinum mint was finally closed about 326 AD and its staff transferred to Byzantium, now renamed Constantinople. Their task was to create the empire’s largest minting establishment, to be operating in time for the official dedication ceremonies of the new capital in 330 AD.
Nicomedia had been the principal residence of Diocletian, and Constantine spent a considerable amount of time there in the period following his victory over Licinius in 324 AD. However, with the formal dedication in 330 AD of Constantinople as the eastern imperial capital, Nicomedia lost much of its former prestige.