Wednesday, September 30, 2015

A low suggests higher highs, whereas a high at this point in time will mean a profound longer-term correction.

Stock Markets Crashing Into the 2015.75

NIKICH-W 9-29-2015NIKFOR-W 9-29-2015
The fact that the stock markets are crashing into the 2015.75 turning point, rather than making a major high, indicates what we should expect to unfold in the future. In 1987, the low was on the day of the ECM, as was the case in 1994, whereas 1998.55 was the high in the Dow that day. So a low suggests higher highs, whereas a high at this point in time will mean a profound longer-term correction.
So far, so good. We may shake the tree and send money running into the waiting arms of government — so look out for the aftermath.
of government — so look out for the aftermath.



Bond volatility beginning to rise from October moving forward.

The Peak in Government? A Low in Interest Rates?

FEDFUN-M 9-28-2015
We have warned that capital is in a flight to quality, therefore creating the bubble in government paper. We also warned that the bond market on the long-term peaked in April/May and that we should expect a further rally in the short-end. This significant move has unfolded right before our eyes. The fact that the bonds have peaked in advance, yet we have the short-end rising into this period, reflects the stark reality that capital does not trust government long-term.
The Fed has been warning that they must raise rates to re-establish “normalcy” to the yield curve. No one in their right mind should be buying long-term paper at these rates. The capital has been heading into an even shorter investment cycle, and this presents a highly dangerous potential on the horizon.
FEDFOR-M 9-28-2015
What is the concern? With capital consolidating into short maturities, this means that any change in rates will have a far more immediate impact upon the sovereign debts of all nations. The typical dollar bears say, “Oh, well China sold a huge amount of bonds!” and they twist this into somehow being bearish for the dollar. China is following the trend: sell long-term and move short-term.
We can see that volatility beginning to rise from October moving forward. We are looking at a panic cycle that appears in the U.S. Fed funds by February, followed by another next August.
This is confirming the change in trend that we see with 2015.75. It is not a monumental crash in stocks, nor is it the end of the world with the blood moon. This is the peak in government. As time begins to move forward, you will look back at this turning point as rather significant. It may be more than an announcement that there is water on Mars. We have had so many things happen this week, right down to a meeting between Obama and Putin at the United Nations.
So grab a drink. You might need one as we start to move forward away from the change in trend — 2015.75.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Recent history of gold

Did Gold Survive the Depression?

Some people totally confuse gold and money. During the Great Depression, we were on a gold standard. During a decline, ALL assets will decline against whatever is money, just as money declines during a boom. You need to separate MONEY from gold or you will never understand how the economy functions and you will buy gold when you should be selling. If you do not get this one right, forget it. You are not ready to invest.
If bronze or cattle were money, they would have risen against gold. It is MONEY vs. ASSETS — not gold. Today, gold is a commodity and it is tracking the commodity group as it is tracking silver. Gold moved opposite of silver between 1929 and 1932 only because it was then MONEY. So if you think a crash means that gold will rise, you are in for a very rude awakening.
You are doomed if you cling to the idea that gold will rise simply because stocks decline. Gold was DEVALUED in 1934 since gold was MONEY. What it could purchase for $20.67 then cost $35. The government confiscated gold and moved to a TWO-TIER monetary system with gold used exclusively for international settlements, not domestic.
Gold rose in purchasing power between 1929 and 1932 simply because it was MONEY at that time. The gold promoters do not understand that gold is no longer money, and therefore it will not rise in purchasing power in the event of a crash. The promoters do not talk about the event where government confiscated gold. They focus on the fact that gold rose in value from $20.67 to $35 without explaining that everything rose between 1934 and 1937, and then fell with the crash of 1937 when MONEY rose in value. Devalue whatever is MONEY and all assets rise, be it real estate, stocks, or commodities. This is what took place even during the German hyperinflation. It is ASSETS against MONEY, regardless of what it might be at that moment in time.
Gold 1970-1990 -M
Today, gold will decline with commodities against MONEY, and then it will rise when people lose confidence in government after realizing that there is a Sovereign Debt Crisis. You better get this one right. Inflation soared during the OPEC crisis, but we ended up with cost-push inflation rather than demand; gold declined from 1974 into 1976 by about 50% and MONEY rose in purchasing power. All the classic nonsense from fiat to the end of the dollar was banter as gold fell 50%. If we look at how gold has performed when it is not MONEY, we can start to sort out the bullshit from reality.
Gold declined with each economic downturn from the OPEC crisis, the 1980 high, and the post 1987 crash. The Dow also rallied into 1980, as did silver, real estate, and just about every other commodity. The correlation between gold and all other assets was opposite of the Great Depression.
Gold 1999-2015-M
Gold broke out and rallied from our 2007 peak in the Economic Confidence Model, and stormed higher into the bottom of that wave in 2011. Here we saw gold perform as the “safe haven” but the gold promoters brainwashed everyone with their fiat nonsense. Here is one comment from a seriously brainwashed victim who can only see the world through the eyes of gold and fascism: “And BTW, 50 years from now, this will be seen as a dollar bubble. This can be detected only in relationship to metals and commodities, but this has been masked by paper to the degree that you simply refuse to look at it.” He does not understand the role of money and pines for Marxism where money is always the same value and the business cycle does not exist. People like this dream of perfect utopia where we are all mindless drones walking around in a perfect fog. They refuse to understand that MONEY is just a unit or account and a medium of exchange that everyone must agree on. You can tell the world that metals are money, but when you are starving and trying to convince someone who does not believe in your religion to give you food in exchange for metals — good luck.
MONEY is solely what another will accept because they know someone else will accept it from them. You cannot dictate to the world what you think should be money. This is not a bubble where metals will replace the dollar. This is a bubble in government. Regardless of what becomes MONEY after this event, the dollar will not be the reserve currency and has nothing to do with paper. It has to do with politics. As Milton Friedman said, “If you put government in charge of the desert, within a few years there would be a shortage of sand.” It really does not matter for you are focusing on the wrong piece in the puzzle.
Did gold rally because of fiat? No. Gold rallied because the banking system was collapsing. These people kept buying gold, swearing QE1-3 was inflationary, and lost all the way down because they failed to comprehend that this is not a battle against fiat.
Gold declined with every dollar rally when it was NOT MONEY and just a commodity, yet it rallied when there was a risk of banks failing — not QE1-3. This clearly illustrates what the “safe haven” really is.
Those who preach of a return to the gold standard are one mark short of being declared insane. They live in the past and are incapable of understanding economic evolution. Bretton Woods failed because they fixed gold at $35 but increased the amount of issued dollars. A two-year-old could have figured out that such a system would collapse. ALL attempts at fixing money have failed, right down to the Swiss/euro peg. So what collapsed was the GOLD STANDARD, yet people WRONGLY think that returning to some gold standard will stop the volatility and create the perfect world of Marxism by eliminating the business cycle. The problem was not the gold standard: it was the politicians. Returning to a gold standard today will not solve anything without political reform.
Latin Monetary Union
Gold cannot and has not prevented any financial crisis by creating a fixed standard. Bretton Woods was not the only gold standard to collapse. Historically, any attempt to create a “standard” is the same as creating a peg. We live in a free market and that means everything rises and falls with the business cycle. Absolutely NOTHINGon a fixed standard can survive as everything fluctuates. Governments rise and fall because of the very same stupid mistakes.
During the 14th century, Florence had the very same type of two-tier system that was the foundation of Bretton Woods. Gold served for international settlement and silver was used domestically. Companies even had to keep two sets of books, and wages were paid in silver. The price of silver rose sharply against gold, leading to deflation and rising unemployment. The people rioted, stormed the palaces of the bankers, and set fire to them.
Gold WILL RISE along with stocks and commodities against whatever is money. The “safe have” will return ONLY when the public questions the survivability of banks and government — not fiat and inflation. If you disagree, then keep buying for the wrong reason just as the Japanese did for more than 20 years. This is the outcome we face, so stop the nonsense. Gold cannot possibly react as it did between 1929 and 1932 against everything else because it is not MONEY, nor the unit of account or the medium of exchange. So get over it. It will be time to buy gold for the right reason — not for fiat or this hatred of the dollar. That is like blaming your wife because you got into an accident driving to work. Get on point if you want to survive this game. This is the real world, not fiction. If you create a theory, it better work every time or it is just propaganda.
If you insist on unrealistic outcomes, as they say, a fool and his money are quickly parted. We are in the middle of a major crisis. ALL assets will rise against MONEY, provided we do not go all the way to a Mad Max event for then only food will have value.
Far too many people assume capital will only move to gold. That is not true for BIGMONEY cannot move to gold and never will. They cannot store it and it produces no income flow. Gold is for individuals, not BIG MONEY. The second misconception that one person wrote in is that wealth cannot simply vanish; it would go somewhere, hoarding or otherwise.” This is simply not true. Money is the unit of account that measures wealth and that rises in falls in value. Even gold is being measured in dollars (the unit of account). Wealth is simply a valuation at an instant in time. When the stock market or any asset crashes, the valuation evaporates. It is NOT a zero sum game, as in futures, for there is no contract with only one side; there must always be two sides – long v short. Wealth in every other form is simply a valuation that evaporates — it does not transfer to someone else.
Gold rises ONLY when there is uncertainty about government or the banking industry. It will not keep pace with inflation and its fate is tied to the commodity sector. Some people will send hate mail over that simply because they WANTto believe something else.
Julius Caesar understood that and said that people believe only want they want to believe. He was correct. There is no convincing a Democrat he should be a Republican or vice versa. You will believe gold is money and shut out everything to the contrary, or you will have an open mind and comprehend that money is whatever the majority accept at that point in time.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Close for the week below 16280 and daily closing in the Dow below 16160 will signal further selling pressure

The Dow & the Computer

Video Player

The Global Market Watch picked the high and the August 24th low in the US share market. It is warning we may have a temporary high here in 2015. If we penetrate the August 24th low, then we may indeed fall to the 13000-14000 area and do the slingshot move back to new highs.
The interesting aspect will be the correlation models, which we will go over at the conference. What is lining up this time is really incredible and forewarns we may be indeed see the wild times ahead in all markets.
Assume nothing is cheap if you want to survive this crazy period. Keep in mind that a daily closing in the Dow below 16160 will signal further selling pressure and a close for the week below 16280 will also warn that we could see this slingshot move.
The Global Market Watch is an entirely different model altogether from the Reversals and Cycles. This is our Artificial Intelligence system using pattern recognition far beyond any human capability dependent upon subjective analysis

End of the British Empire. After all, it is getting close to 443.76 years from Elizabeth I (51.6 * 8.6).

It’s Not Your Money
corbyn Jeremy
Jeremy Corbyn, the new head of the British Labour Party, is really a Communist. He is not championing a minimum wage, but a MAXIMUM WAGE. He is advocating that no individual should be allowed to earn more than whatever he feels is appropriate. These people view one simple fact: whatever money you earn is not yours, it belongs to the state. I was in Canada and there was some socialist woman on TV being interviewed and she said that openly. It is not your money, it belongs to the state. They merely decide how much you are allowed to keep. I was dumbfounded she actually said that in public whereas I hear that all the time behind closed doors. Nothing belongs to you is their actual true belief.
These Marxists want to suppress freedom and cannot see that we are all different and have a God given right to pursue our own dreams. Some people want to produce while others do not. All these people do is drool over what other people have and demand they have been cheated because they are entitled to the same.capitalism-vs-socialism
What Corbyn cannot understand is that this is no different from robbery. If you walk down the street and a man points a gun at you, demands your watch, all your cash, and justifies it by saying that he has nothing you have everything, then what is the difference between that and writing a law to accomplish the same thing? Where can we go to be free of people who just want to rob whatever we have because they are lazy or incompetent to ever have an original thought? This may be the final end of the British Empire. After all, it is getting close to 443.76 years from Elizabeth I (51.6 * 8.6). A very precarious event that may indeed signal the shift from the West is underway to China.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Greece has only been a single nation since 1821

Alexis Tsipras hailed a victory for his left-wing Syriza party after winning a second general election in less than 9 months. However, the many Greeks I have met with say they expect nothing to change. Before the vote, I reported that the Greeks I spoke with said that they did not expect anything to change because the previous government never did as they said.
Tsipras said Greeks face a difficult road to recovery from the financial crisis that will only come through hard work. Yet Tsipras is too busy trying to be part of the political establishment of Europe instead of saving his own country. He was elected to end austerity, but he has embraced it instead. With his Syriza victory, he actually won just over 35%, which was slightly less than his previous election results. By no means does he represent the majority of Greeks. He will rule only by forming a coalition with the nationalist Independent Greeks, and he remains in opposition with the New Democracy Party who gained 28%. The far-right Golden Dawn came in third with only 7%, which was a gain over the last election.
Greece 1829 10 Lepta
Greece has only been a single nation since 1821 when the people declared their independence, but they did not achieve it until 1829. At first, the West was in favor of letting the Ottoman Empire retain some power and occupation of Greece. Yet many non-Greeks volunteered to fight for their cause of independence, which included Lord Byron. Consequently, it was on October 20, 1827 when the combined forces of the British, French and Russian naval force moved together and destroyed the Ottoman and Egyptian armada. Russia’s minister of foreign affairs, Ioannis Kapodistrias, was a Greek and returned home to become the first president of the new Republic. The capital was the island of Aigina (1828–1829) and the second was Nafplio (1828–1834) on the Peloponnese. After his assassination, the European powers helped turn Greece into a monarchy with the first King named Otto coming from Bavaria, and the second, George I, from Denmark. King Otto is responsible for moving the capital to Athens in 1834.
Greece was historically composed of city-states. We can very well see a return to that political structure since there appears to be no resolution to address the oppression of the Greek people. This is the likelihood of a crisis in debt brewing within Europe.

Dow below 16280 this week then slingshot- first crash then bounce

Bubble Bubble Where is the Bubble

DJIND-W 9-23-2015

It is fascinating that when I warn of anything using the word “CRASH” newspapers immediate report it as I am forecasting a crash in the stock market. This demonstrates that there is no consideration that government can also crash and burn – the perfect example of 100% confidence. Yes, if this week simply closes on the Dow below 16280, then we can be looking at that slingshot move I have warned about where in one year, we have a crash and a swing to the upside to new highs. These type of events are the ultimate mind game, but that is how they destroy the majority. As for those who write asking which investment will be safe – the answer is NONE.
SV1919-YWhile those who distort the events of the Great Depression to sell gold or whatever, keep in mind that commodities peaked in 1919 and bottomed WITH stocks in 1932. Real Estate peaked in 1927 followed by bonds when the Fed cut rates to try to help Europe, then everything reversed and stocks soared in 1929 and then crashed and burned into 1932 bottoming with commodities.
There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing– ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. So why the charlatans are trying to sell you newsletter with promises of if you just bought this letter you will make 20,000%, keep in mind this is a period of survival we are entering – not wild speculation. If you do not understand the nature of the beast, the beast will have you for lunch.
DJFOR-W 9-23-2015

So what we have to grasp here is that this is a well organized collapse. Each sector will collapse and in turn set in motion the next. If we get this week-end closing below 16280, then we may be headed for a retest of the August low going into October.
This will be the most difficult period ahead to actually forecast so pay attention. We are entering a period of chaos that BEGINS with 2015.75, it does not end there with some crash. THIS IS BEGINNING not the END.
Remember, if the stocks decline into 2015.75, that should push more and more capital into government bonds completing the BUBBLE. This is by no means a BUBBLE in stocks, commodities, or the dollar. This is a peak in GOVERNMENT. This is not even a Kondratieff Wave based upon commodities. This is the 309.6 year cycle in government and unfortunately, the other side of 2015.75 is not looking very pretty. This not about just the collapse of Europe. This is the collapse of Western forms of government that aids the shift in the financial capital of world to China by 2032. These shifts in global economic trends are measured in hundreds of years and unfortunately, we have a front row seat. It’s Just Time.

No Taxation Without Representation

The Future Rests in the Hands of the Youth

QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong,
I’m aware of your blog for almost a year and try to daily follow your posts. I’m from the Netherlands and also over here government and other officials try to make the people believe that we’re recovering from the economic crisis. There is no mention given about a coming debt crisis.
I as 23 year old student worrying about my future. Classmates and friends experience hard times to find jobs and start a family. In these times it is almost impossible to find a job paying a non slavery salary. Let alone the recent requirements to get a mortgage.
My question to you: how to deal with these developments in these turbulent times? What can i, as student with minimal savings, do to ‘survive’ the coming sovereign debt crisis and to life a fulfilling live?
Just go on with your posts! You’re opening a lot of eyes worldwide.
Best regards,
ANSWER: I have met with students in Paris and throughout Europe. The politicians cannot understand that they are destroying your future. All they can see is their need to retain power, but the high levels of taxes are so burdensome that they are preventing the creation of new jobs. The zero to negative interest rates has resulted in the elderly still working because they cannot afford to retire.
We are reaching the end of this noose around our neck that was placed there by Marx. It is interesting how in the USA they call me a “conservative”, yet in France, they call me a “liberal” because I am against authoritative socialism. The labels change, but the message remains the same.
Why did Marxism collapse? Because government cannot create anything new for that requires the freedom to act and imagine which is exclusively an individual trait. Government creates nothing. They are the great destroyer. Companies grow and become bureaucratic. In the process, they terminate the creative genius upon which all companies are found. A creative person is a NON-CONFORMIST. Consequently, they do not suffer regulation and bureaucratic systems. So in come the lawyers and the accountants who then eject the creativity from the board, exactly as Apple got rid of Steve Jobs. Once the creative person is gone, the company begins its slow death. At first, they buy startups and pay huge money to gain creativity. In the end, bureaucracy kills the corporation for the very same reason government destroys the economy and shrinks it, no matter what they pretend.
The is just one aspect that Marx could not see for there is no difference between a corrupt bureaucratic CEO running a company and a corrupt bureaucratic politician. Hence, socialism cannot survive for it lowers the living standard of the whole.
It is nice that we have social programs, but that came at a huge cost. Families were once tight groups for your children were your retirement since they took care of their parents in old age. Today, children no longer save to take care of their parents — that’s government’s job. Consequently, Eastern Europe and Asia (excluding Japan) are far better situated to cope with the future for they do not rely upon government. The distrust of government in former communist areas is many times as much of what you will find in Europe or North America, and indeed the majority rather than a minority. This will greatly insulate those regions from the worst decline compared to Europe and North America.
What you need to do is take back government. You cannot create a solution with the same line of thinking that created the current mess. The future belongs to the youth. Understand the devil you are dancing with. It is time to become politically active and challenge the establishment for that is the only way to save the future.
Many people do not appreciate what Thomas Jefferson defined as part of the entire No Taxation Without Representation issue. True, this began by the fact that taxes were not a right of the king and could only be authorized with the CONSENT of the people, which was given by their REPRESENTATIVES in Parliament.  The “representation” was originally by the people for these representatives were NOT career politicians. We have lost ALL representation for politicians have become the career bureaucrats and thus exempt themselves from most of the laws they inflict upon the rest of us. So once again the system has evolved into career politicians whereby we have lost all real representation transforming us into the property of the state to be herded like cattle and taxed to sustain the bureaucrats. This was PRECISELY what led to the fall of Rome. As the bureaucrats (army) were not paid, they would nominal a new emperor and anyone who opposed saw their cities sacked and their inhabitants killed. This would be like Chicago invading New York because the employees of Illinois were broke.
While we may not yet be at that stage in the game since money is intangible for now, thanks to Marx, we are targeting the rich. Of course There was Maximinus I (235-238AD)whose reign lasted about 3.14 years. He simply declared ALL wealth within the Roman Empire belonged to the state (him) and paid rewards for anyone who gave information about someone hiding wealth precisely as governments do today – Germany & France paying bribes to Swiss Bankers to destroy their own country, US International Revenue Service paying rewards for reporting anyone not paying their taxes to such informants all precisely as Maximinis I operated.
Today, Jefferson-Sigwe once again have taxation without representation for those in office never represent the people but only government interest. But Jefferson added another dimension. Jefferson saw a national debt as two evils. First there was the fiscal problem of debt and interest. However, there was also a philosophical problem that everyone seems to overlook and this is the origin of the crisis faced by the Youth.
Jefferson explained in a lettered dated September 6th, 1789 he wrote to James Madison stating that “the earth belongs ,,, to the living” and therefore “the dead have neither powers nor rights over it” whereby one’s parents had no authority to impose decisions upon their children and posterity who had no part in making them and that “every constitution,” “every law,” and every public debt should expire within a generation of its enactment. “If it be enforced longer,” he argued, “it is an act of force, and of right.” (PTJm 15:392, 396)
Therefore, I fully agree with Jefferson. You are burdened and your future has been predetermined for you are being taxed without any choice in the matter. You have been stripped of all your rights and your future has been stolen by socialists who wanted to live well by robbing you of your freedom and capacity to determine your own future. For this, you must become politically active. Taxation is evil, and we no longer need taxation since money is no longer a commodity. Money is purely representational dependent upon faith and confidence. Government should not be allowed to borrow, for money should be created for its expense limited to a percent of GDP that cannot be increased except in time of war if ATTACKED – not like a 100 years war to justify taxation.