Friday, May 29, 2015
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Sunday, May 24, 2015
November 21st, 2018, which will be the Pi target that on previous waves produced 911 & the very day of the Greek crisis in 2010
May 20th, 2015
May 20th, 2015
Monday, May 18, 2015
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
As long as the share markets DO NOT make highs with the ECM, then it still appears we can have that Phase Transition into 2017.
Yields Are Collapsing on Short-End
The amount of cash rushing around on the short-end is stunning. Yields are collapsing into negative territory and this is the same flight to quality we began to see at the peak in the crisis back in 2009. The big money is selling the 10 year or greater paper and everyone is rushing into the short-term. There is not enough paper around to satisfy the demands. Capital is unwilling to hold long-term even the 10 year maturities of governments including Germany. This is illustrating the crisis that is unfolding and there is a collapse in liquidity.
As long as the share markets DO NOT make highs with the ECM, then it still appears we can have that Phase Transition into 2017. It appears we are headed into that false move that requires the share markets to decline which then send cash running into government debt. What is unfolding right now is the severe decline in confidence in government is causing the big capital to sell the long-end and move to the very short-end. So we should continue to see this trend and the rates should continue to move negative in that paper.
Since we elected two Weekly Bearish Reversals at 15620 and 15630, the correction was confirmed. However, the next reversal was at 10522 and a Monthly Bearish lies at 15065. This is the critical area to watch for a weekly closing below this level will warn that the highs are clearly in place and we will see long-term rate start their rise. Smart capital sees the crisis. Look for the development here going into the last week of May. We should get a bounce thereafter, but government debt will decline after 2015.75 on a worldwide scale.
The share markets hopefully create the false move and that should send more capital rushing into government paper. There is not enough short-term paper around so we should then see capital forced to start moving up the maturity duration just to park money as share markets correct. Keep an eye on the Global Market Watch. That should help to pick the highs and lows specifically in different instruments.
It is typical how much of the European press is saying the Euro decline is over and a Greece default will not harm Europe. This seems to be the standard propaganda from government that comes out with every serious change in trend be it Japan in 1990 to the US 1929 Bubble where it was also immediately pronounced the fundamentals were all sound.
We warned that the first area of resistance was at the 115 level on the weekly models and that we did not expect a break of the 80 cent level just yet – that was more after 2015.75 than before. Yet we need a daily closing above 11360 to stabilize the Euro. A daily closing back BELOW the 11120 level will warn that a retest of the lows will follow.
The decline is still in motion. This is a reaction rally and the very best we can hope for is a retest of the 120 level. However, we must break through the top of the channel on this chart to make that happen. Otherwise, the 115 level may be the maximum on the upside. That channel stands at the 11427 level at this time and the 109 level under the market. Break the channel on the downside on a closing basis and the lows will be retested. The main support still lies at the 103 zone.