Monday, March 31, 2014

Thailand on Brink of Civil War on the 41 Year Cycle

 



Thailand-Revolution

The Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra faces impeachment within a matter of weeks.

However, her supporters are reported planning to challenge any move to dismiss her by arming militias. This is right on schedule with the 41 year cycle in Revolution for Thailand. The democratic process seems to be declining. The last Thai Revolution was October 14, 1973. The popular uprising of known as the “October 14 Event”; or “Day of Great Sorrow”, was a watershed event in Thailand’s history. The uprising resulted in the end of the ruling military dictatorship and altered the Thai political system. Notably, it highlighted the growing influence of Thai university students in politics.

Previously, there was the Siamese Revolution of 1932 that was really a Siamese Coup d’├ętat. The Revolution of 1932 was a crucial turning point in Thai history in the 20th century that was nearly bloodless transition on June 24, 1932. The political system of government in Siam was changed from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy similar to Britain. The revolution was brought about by a comparatively small group of military and civilians, who formed Siam’s first political party known as the Khana Ratsadon (Peoples’ Party). The revolution ended 150 years of absolutism under the Chakri Dynasty and almost 700 years of absolute rule of Kings over Thai history. The Revolution was a product of global historical change as well as social and political changes domestically. The revolution also resulted in the people of Siam being granted their first Constitution.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Gold - closing back below 1308.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend

Gold Bouncing off the 1390-1400 barrier




So far, gold has been unable to get through the first primary resistance 1390-1400 barrier. We pressed higher into this week making the high but then turned back down. Now the two levels forming are 1323 and 1425. A weekly closing back below 1308.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Major monthly resistance stands at 1555-1565 followed by 1617 for the next three months whereas support lies at 1315. a monthly closing below this area will signal new lows ahead. Only a monthly closing above 1617 will signal a breakout to the upside.

Thursday, March 13, 2014

China peaked in 2007 and is en route for its low in 2020 as is Russia


The number of people jumping with financial declines has been a universal trend. There were people jumping in Japan after the 1989 Crash. The jumpers in New York were mixed both from bankers to traders. There have even been women who jumped. This trend will continue longer than normal on this cycle and will most likely end in 2020.

The excessive bullishness we have seen from the gold promoters is identical to that of the stock promoters during the 1920s. When the market crash, they too tried to talk it up and conspiracy theories filled the air. So much so, one popular one was it had been a conspiracy to destroy the Republic Party by communists and socialists, keeping in mind there was the 1917 Russian Revolution and then the German Revolution of 1918. Marxism was becoming the new conspiracy behind everything That reached the ear of Herbert Hoover and in his memoirs he apologized for that rumor launched the Senate investigations that found nobody yet the investigation still gave birth to the SEC.

We are in a vortex of a very dark corner when it comes to economics, civil unrest, and war all converging at the same time. China peaked in 2007 and is en route for its low in 2020 as is Russia. This turns up the heat domestically where people lose money and want to seek retribution for their loss blaming others when it is their own emotions that get the best of them. The US as a whole will decline sharply after 2015.75 due to capital flows pouring in now that save it and people trying to get money out of banks and pension funds that need income or go bankrupt.

Nonetheless, the US banking sector also peaked in 2007 and its demise is waiting in 2020. The European banking sector is on life-support right now. When the electricity goes out, the breathing will cease. There is no saving Europe without major reform of Brussels who seems to have the scepter of power in their hand, and assume they need more to make it work while they ignore the rising unemployment among the youth that is staggering. The fact that half of the youth in France want to leave somehow is still not being noticed by the politicians or people who think the Euro’s rise is because it is a great hard currency backed by austerity – Ah, the US did that it was called the Great Depression.

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Capitalism (Freedom) has Never Truly Existed



Marxism is a Dead Idea But Capitalism (Freedom) has Never Truly Existed

InvisibleHand-DanielleThe Socialists argue that we actually have a free market economy called capitalism and that is the reason for the economic downturns. They assume we can create an economic flat-line they call socialism/communism. Anything that booms and busts they call capitalism. The real question is when have we EVER had free markets and Capitalism without someone trying to regulate and manipulate the opposite side – labor or capital?
During the very early emergence of society coming out of the dark ages when we were abandoning serfdom, for a brief shining moment after the Black Plague or Death of the 14th century, capitalism may have existed for less than a year. Other than that, both sides (labor & capital) have been trying to regulate and manipulate the other ever since so there really has never been a free market that socialists seem to hate so much.
Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was against the French Physiocrats who tried to reason that“wealth” was only agriculture and the blacksmith making products to sell to the farmer was a parasite living off of the wealth created by the farmer. Smith in his Wealth of Nations said that was wrong. Everyone combined through their individual productivity creates the wealth of the nation. Smith was proven correct with Japan rising to the second largest economy with a tiny landmass and hardly any natural resources. They became productive and wiped out the unions in the USA that were trying to rig the game no different from capital. Each side gains control for brief periods like democrats and republicans, yet neither can see that they need each other to exist.
The Black Death killed about 50% of the population in Europe that sparked a labor shortage which re-instituted wages. For a brief shinning moment real free markets existed. Labor rose in value naturally based upon demand. Then the manipulations all began.
The kings during the 14th century became greedy and began taxing wages or introduced the poll tax. As long as there was serfdom, people never paid taxes, only the “rich” landowners. This economic change of free labor (capitalism) produced the first tax rebellion in France and then England. The shortage in labor sent agricultural prices soaring. The landowners said this wasn’t fair that wages were rising and England passed legislation to reverse the free markets. In 1362, a petition was filed in the English House of Commons blaming the inflation on workers “who refuse to bear the burden of poverty patiently” to justify freezing wages.
TYLER

It was at this time that taxes rose causing hoarding of capital among labor and landowners reducing the VELOCITY of money. Ordinances now appeared prohibiting the exportation of precious metals as hoarding increased. Edward III issued the Statute of Labourers in 1351 that set a maximum rate of pay at pre-plague levels and required all able-bodied men to work. The Black Death created a very dynamic economic impact by increasing individual wealth, reducing the population creating a shortage of labor, and price inflation. This was the free markets at their best.
The change economically was felt throughout Europe. In Florence, there was the Revolt of the Ciompi in 1378 that was an insurrection involving the lower classes that seized the government and created the most dynamic democratic government that would ever exist in Florence. As government began taxing the people, rebellions became more commonplace.
We have NEVER actually experienced a period of pure free markets. Depending upon who was in control labor or capital, each side has sought to use the law to change the balance of power economically in their favor. Today, we have the excessive rise in taxes causing the producers to hoard their capital and not hire or expand businesses. This has led to unemployment in excess of 60% among the youth. It is not that one side is right and the other wrong. Both sides are wrong and cannot use the rule of law to try to create an economic advantage for themselves.
Therefore, it is hard to say what lies ahead but we are at a Rome Moment. Marxism will end for it includes everything that seeks to manipulate for the benefit of the so-called people that is really now government workers at the expense of the private sector. However, the living standards of the people in general have declined, not because of the “rich”, but because of the growing unproductive sector we call government.
The only possible way forward would be to eliminate taxes for thereby both sides would no longer have an economic advantage to control government. Politically, we need to end career politicians for this would put the people in a real position of overseeing the bureaucracy. Those terms should be no more than 1 year. Will this solve all the problems? NO! It will not even last forever for one side or the other will find a way to alter the power and seek to attack and exploit the other side with regulation and laws.
This is just the beginning. There is NEVER a permanent solution for there is a cycle at work as well. Capitalism (defined as real free market for both sides) has NEVER existed except for some very few brief periods until one side or the other begins to try to control the other for personal gain.


Marxism is a Dead Idea But Capitalism (Freedom) has Never Truly Existed

InvisibleHand-DanielleThe Socialists argue that we actually have a free market economy called capitalism and that is the reason for the economic downturns. They assume we can create an economic flat-line they call socialism/communism. Anything that booms and busts they call capitalism. The real question is when have we EVER had free markets and Capitalism without someone trying to regulate and manipulate the opposite side – labor or capital?
During the very early emergence of society coming out of the dark ages when we were abandoning serfdom, for a brief shining moment after the Black Plague or Death of the 14th century, capitalism may have existed for less than a year. Other than that, both sides (labor & capital) have been trying to regulate and manipulate the other ever since so there really has never been a free market that socialists seem to hate so much.
Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was against the French Physiocrats who tried to reason that“wealth” was only agriculture and the blacksmith making products to sell to the farmer was a parasite living off of the wealth created by the farmer. Smith in his Wealth of Nations said that was wrong. Everyone combined through their individual productivity creates the wealth of the nation. Smith was proven correct with Japan rising to the second largest economy with a tiny landmass and hardly any natural resources. They became productive and wiped out the unions in the USA that were trying to rig the game no different from capital. Each side gains control for brief periods like democrats and republicans, yet neither can see that they need each other to exist.
The Black Death killed about 50% of the population in Europe that sparked a labor shortage which re-instituted wages. For a brief shinning moment real free markets existed. Labor rose in value naturally based upon demand. Then the manipulations all began.
The kings during the 14th century became greedy and began taxing wages or introduced the poll tax. As long as there was serfdom, people never paid taxes, only the “rich” landowners. This economic change of free labor (capitalism) produced the first tax rebellion in France and then England. The shortage in labor sent agricultural prices soaring. The landowners said this wasn’t fair that wages were rising and England passed legislation to reverse the free markets. In 1362, a petition was filed in the English House of Commons blaming the inflation on workers “who refuse to bear the burden of poverty patiently” to justify freezing wages.
TYLER

It was at this time that taxes rose causing hoarding of capital among labor and landowners reducing the VELOCITY of money. Ordinances now appeared prohibiting the exportation of precious metals as hoarding increased. Edward III issued the Statute of Labourers in 1351 that set a maximum rate of pay at pre-plague levels and required all able-bodied men to work. The Black Death created a very dynamic economic impact by increasing individual wealth, reducing the population creating a shortage of labor, and price inflation. This was the free markets at their best.
The change economically was felt throughout Europe. In Florence, there was the Revolt of the Ciompi in 1378 that was an insurrection involving the lower classes that seized the government and created the most dynamic democratic government that would ever exist in Florence. As government began taxing the people, rebellions became more commonplace.
We have NEVER actually experienced a period of pure free markets. Depending upon who was in control labor or capital, each side has sought to use the law to change the balance of power economically in their favor. Today, we have the excessive rise in taxes causing the producers to hoard their capital and not hire or expand businesses. This has led to unemployment in excess of 60% among the youth. It is not that one side is right and the other wrong. Both sides are wrong and cannot use the rule of law to try to create an economic advantage for themselves.
Therefore, it is hard to say what lies ahead but we are at a Rome Moment. Marxism will end for it includes everything that seeks to manipulate for the benefit of the so-called people that is really now government workers at the expense of the private sector. However, the living standards of the people in general have declined, not because of the “rich”, but because of the growing unproductive sector we call government.
The only possible way forward would be to eliminate taxes for thereby both sides would no longer have an economic advantage to control government. Politically, we need to end career politicians for this would put the people in a real position of overseeing the bureaucracy. Those terms should be no more than 1 year. Will this solve all the problems? NO! It will not even last forever for one side or the other will find a way to alter the power and seek to attack and exploit the other side with regulation and laws.
This is just the beginning. There is NEVER a permanent solution for there is a cycle at work as well. Capitalism (defined as real free market for both sides) has NEVER existed except for some very few brief periods until one side or the other begins to try to control the other for personal gain.

Monday, March 10, 2014

Jim Rogers Interview

Influential Investor Jim Rogers Talks Commodities And Japanese Stocks (Q&A)

on March 10 2014 6:23 AM


Q: What are some stock markets you’re interested in?
A: First, the plenary session in Beijing in November – the Chinese say it’s one of the three most important things in the past 35 years of Chinese history. So I’m doing what they’re doing. I’m started to look for investments in the area where they’re going to put money. If the Chinese government is going to put a lot of money into something, I should, too. They have a lot more money than I do. They’re smarter than I am.
I started buying Russia in recent months. Yesterday [March 5] and the day before, I bought more. I haven’t bought too much, but have been looking for things to buy in Russia. I bought shares in the Moscow Stock Exchange. I bought Aeroflot. I own airlines around the world. And I’m looking to buy more in Japan, if given the chance.
I like to buy things that are depressed. Agriculture is very depressed. The American stock market is hitting all-time highs. I don’t find that particularly attractive.
Q: Why Japan?
A: First of all, the market is down 70 percent or so from its all-time high. But Mr. Abe has said he’s going to print unlimited amounts of money. Those were his words. So he’s going to ruin Japan. Twenty years from now, we’re going to look back and say: that was the death knell for Japan.
But in the meantime, if you print unlimited amounts of money it’s got to go somewhere. The market is down dramatically in 24 years. And Abe also passed a law giving tax incentives for ordinary Japanese to invest in the stock market. I’ve seen that happen many times in history, and it always gets people to invest.
For those reasons, I’m investing in Japan. I repeat: this is all going to be a disaster in the end. Printing unlimited amounts of money is terrible. Running up staggering debt is terrible. But that’s what Mr. Abe is doing. He’s going to ruin Japan. But he might make the stock market go higher.
Q: Any last thoughts?
A: Agriculture is very exciting for many reasons. We’re running out of farmers worldwide. More people in America study public relations, not agriculture. The average age of farmers in America is 58. In Japan, it’s 66. So if you want to get rich, become a farmer, not a stock broker.
Stock brokers will be driving taxis in the next few years. The farmers are going to be driving Lamborghinis. Sugar prices, for example, are down 75 percent from all-time highs. Learn about agriculture, don’t learn about finance.

US dollar will rise exponentially after 2015.75


Deflation Still in Europe
The Euro is still pressing higher against the dollar on deflation. The geopolitical risks have not yet kicked in and may not until after June. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to leave monetary policy unchanged demonstrates it is not worried about inflation nor do they realize the broader impact of a strong euro on any recovery in Europe and its driving force behind deflation with rising unemployment at the core.
IBEUFOR-M 20140310

The Major Resistance still stands at 14700 level and ONLY a monthly closing above that zone would signal an extended trend. The rise in the Euro is indicative of an economic decline as we saw with the Yen in Japan and the US dollar back in the early 1930s. It was the rising dollar back then that led to Roosevelt’s confiscation of gold and the devaluation of the dollar. So the trend in the euro is not yet complete. The higher it rises the greater the economic decline.
1900$X-M 1931 Sovereign Debt
The rise in the Euro is indicative of the broad economic decline that will cause a rise in civil unrest after 2015.75. This trend was the kiss-of-death for the dollar back in the 1930s. The higher the dollar rose, the worse the economy imploded. We are seeing the very same trend in Europe at this time. This will seriously impact even the Swiss economy driving the prices of exports higher and preparing for the major high we see next year on a 26 year cycle in Swiss real estate. Like Singapore – it is just getting too rich on a global scale for capital.
The US dollar will rise exponentially after 2015.75 with the US economic decline and the ECM aside from the geopolitical risks. When the US economy turns down, then we will see the rise in the dollar really take off as normal.

France – Leading the Way to the Demise of the West – The First to Fall

Posted on  by 
Paris-Sunset-1
Is the sun setting on France? France is the next major country to collapse in the Sovereign Debt Crisis. About 50% of the youth just want to get out. The French Elite are the most Marxist in the world – after all, the entire idea of “Communism” came from France and the the French elite sold the idea to Marx.
FrenchRiots-2013

CBN has produced an excellent TV show showing the French Crisis. I highly recommend you watch this for its explains the extreme danger of the IMF that is controlled by these very people who just do not understand you cannot take everything from those that product. The French Unions are notorious. It is their way or they react violently and commonly will kidnap the heads of companies.
This is the key to watch in Europe. France will be the next key player to collapse and when it does, capital will begin to look around. 
Japan will follow and then the burden will fall upon the USA.
We will look at the Sovereign Debt Crisis that is brewing behind the scenes at the March 21st Conference.

Cycles- Ratio of Advance to Declines tend to arrive at Pi in a bull market

Research – Shocking there is Order in the Chaos

COMMENT: Martin,
I trust you are doing well this weekend.
I have been looking at the eight cycles of mini rallies and mini corrections we have had in the S&P 500 for the past year or so (eight cycles from 2012-11-16 through 2014-02-05).  I tallied up the total days (305) and was calculating the average days per rally (25.8) and the average days per decline (12.4).  I know, pretty boring so far.
However, I then decided to calculate the ratio of each decline period to the preceding rally period to find the average decline ratio:  0.56875.  I know, still pretty boring.
Finally, I decided to do the same thing to calculate the advance ratio, dividing each rally period by the preceding decline period.
Ding! ding! ding! ding! ding!
The answer:  3.14.
And on that note, have a good evening, and a happy Lord’s day tomorrow.
-DB
Linear-Dynamic
ANSWER: 
The Ratio of Advance to Declines tend to arrive at Pi in a bull market and it will shift to the Decline v Advance in a bear market. There is incredible hidden order within everything and Pi seems to be the perfect cycle. The 25.8 is 3 x 8.6 and the 12.3 is 13 or half the volatility cycle. Welcome to the world of Dynamic Thinking. Most people can only see a straight line reducing everything to a single cause and effect – this happens because of that. Such thinking is rather simple-minded – boring, and suitable for government employment.
Do not worry, they tend not to discover anything important. Only when you open your mind can you see the hidden order to the chaos in everything that surrounds us. The closed-minded try to attribute everything to the gods of conspiracy who manipulate the world. One day it is the Fed, then the banker, the Rothschilds, and so on. They are like the Ancient Greeks with their may deities. We tend to wrongly call them pagans. But the Greeks did not see these deities as an actual god as being a creator. Instead, they went to the temple of Poseidon with gifts to say they were about the travel, please do not mess with me. They built temples to their conspirators hoping they would leave them alone. We just spin stories mixing fact with fiction.
Einsteing-Maxims
Our mind functions on a dynamic basis, yet we try to reason in a linear cause and effect manner. Never stop exploring. Always imagine what if ? Indeed, there is a whole new world out there – our problem is the vast majority are trapped in this linear world not much different from the majority who use to think the world was flat. One day soon – their eyes will open and suddenly say – OMG. This is the structural design. How could I have never seen it before!

Saturday, March 8, 2014

China’s Exports Collapse by 18.1%

 



SHNGHI-M 1-25-2014

I have warned that China’s exports were an illusion and that there was a huge carry trade borrowing dollars in Hong Kong at 1% and depositing the money in China getting 6%. But trade tracks money, not goods, so the illusion that China was still expanding was a good one – but still just an illusion.

China’s exports have plummeted “unexpectedly” in February among the tradition forecasters that use the numbers and believe in them. Compared to last year, according to official figures, exports fell by 18.1% from last year. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a gain of 6.8% for the second largest economy in the world. This demonstrates just how out of touch the mainstream economic community really is these days.

In China, many factories were closed. Imports in February rose by 10.1%, also more than expected. Then there has been the first important corporate bankruptcy in China. It is feared that more companies could follow as managing skills in how to survive a economic decline in China is seriously lacking.

Our projection for the low in China’s economy REMAINS the target year 2020. This is why the last bastion for capital remains the US dollar and the greatest recipient of capital is still the US share market. The widening scope of the rally has led the S&P 500 to take the lead away from the Dow Jones Industrials showing the trend is filtering outside of the big institutional money.

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Martin Armstrong's Cyprus Proposal

The right government structure

STRONGEST recommendation to Ukraine

My STRONGEST recommendation to Ukraine is to install a ONE-TERM Presidency for ONE-YEAR and out of government PERMANENTLY. Nobody who works in the bureaucracy previously can EVER hold political power. The government MUST be the people keeping check over the executive. The Judiciary must be private lawyers, not government, who are there for also short-terms and not for life. No judge can rule on anything to which he is familiar with or connected. No judge should sit alone but every case should be heard by three judges.
This is just the beginning. Do this and Ukraine can set the standard for the rest of the world. Do this, and open up citizenship to entrepreneurs and you will create a nation that will explode reducing unemployment and raise the standard of living.
TRUST is everything. There has to be a REAL democracy – not another fake republic that will only be another brief interlude between corruption.

STRONGEST recommendation to Ukraine

kyiv-ukraine-winter
My STRONGEST recommendation to Ukraine is to install a ONE-TERM Presidency for ONE-YEAR and out of government PERMANENTLY. Nobody who works in the bureaucracy previously can EVER hold political power. The government MUST be the people keeping check over the executive. The Judiciary must be private lawyers, not government, who are there for also short-terms and not for life. No judge can rule on anything to which he is familiar with or connected. No judge should sit alone but every case should be heard by three judges.
This is just the beginning. Do this and Ukraine can set the standard for the rest of the world. Do this, and open up citizenship to entrepreneurs and you will create a nation that will explode reducing unemployment and raise the standard of living.
TRUST is everything. There has to be a REAL democracy – not another fake republic that will only be another brief interlude between corruption.

US Share Market - . July- high, Oct / Nov 2014- Volatility.


CSP500-M 3-5-2014
We seem to have achieved the February low and the S&P 500 is starting to take the lead from the Dow. This is reflecting the broadening of the markets as more capital is starting to move into the market for economic and geopolitical reasons. February saw an outside reversal to the upside and we may be looking at a high in July. We are showing high volatility in October-November.