Saturday, November 28, 2015

Ebola will initially fade but be back in full force in 2016 going into 2020

Ebola Returning?

Marty In your report on diseases you had mentioned that Ebola will initially fade but be back in full force in 2016 going into 2020 with devastating results. Looks like you are right again. Please see report from CNN about Ebola coming back to Liberia. Would Ebola be restricted to Africa or are we going to see worldwide outbreak this time.

REPLY: It is amazing to me how outside of physics, the world remains ignorant of cycles which control absolutely everything right down to the cycle of life. Ebola like everything else conforms to cycles. It will not stay confined to Africa. The importation of refugees into Europe will also provide a carrier for disease. Politicians are totally ignorant of life in general. It was Gaëtan Dugas (February 20, 1953 – March 30, 1984) who was a Canadian employee flight attendant of Air Canada who brough AIDS from Africa to North America. It was the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who traced it all back to this one individual they called “patient zero”. Despite the fact this has been disputed, the point is that someone, if not Dugas, crossed borders transporting the disease with them.
Another tremendous risk is criminal prosecutions in the USA. Anyone charged with a crime takes precedent over anything else. There is no question that with all the cross-border connections taking place right now, it is impossible to contain any disease to one area.

Friday, November 27, 2015

The Sept 30th, 2015 Turning Point in the Economic Confidence Model



The Economic Confidence Model may have pinpointed the start of the demise of Western Civilization.

On September 28, 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama had a 90-minute face off at the UN in New York. Putin petitioned Obama for the US to join Russia in against ISIS and leave Assad in power. The Obama administration, would not alter its plan to overthrow Assad, which can only destabilize the region tremendously. Hence, it was on the precise day of the ECM, September 30, 2015, when Putin began bombing anti-Assad “rebels” and ISIS. This event appears to be indeed extremely important moving forward.

Year end support levels - Gold 1043, Euro 103.65

Gold & the Dollar Surge

A ton of emails are flooding in asking what to do with gold since it made new lows after yet another false rally. I appreciate all the people who have been hurt by the goldbugs. Just remember, what goes up MUST come down. Even if gold reached the $5,000 level, it may do so for one nanosecond. Whatever the high it will not rise to such a level and stay there. We are looking at the collapse of the world monetary system. This will be a transition trade only.

If gold closes below the 1043 level at year end, you can bet on new lows next year in 2016. We will most likely see a real surge in the dollar yet with the Euro collapsing. So pay attention also to the year-end closing for the Euro. If that is under 10365, the dollar surge is underway.

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Population Decline in Industrial Countries Requires Immigration?

The United Nations projects that over the next 50 years, the population in the industrialized world will (US-Europe-Japan) will DECLINE, not expand. The population is suffering from growing old and the youth are so burdened with taxes they are not getting married (marriages off by 50%) and are not having children. The decline in birth rates and the migration of people from the outer regions into the old core is typical.
The UN is now supporting immigration to keep the pension funds alive. They have stated that immigration now “require[s] comprehensive reassessments of many established policies and programmes, including those relating to international migration.”

Friday, November 20, 2015

Former French Colony of Mali Targeted

Mali 11-20-2015
Mali, a former French colony, has been targeted as the war on France emerges. Mali came under French colonial rule in 1892. In 1893, the French appointed a civilian governor of the territory they called Soudan Français (French Sudan). Finally, by 1905 the French controlled the region. In 1958, the region was renamed Sudanese Republic, which then obtained complete internal autonomy, yet it became part of the French community or old empire. Then the next year saw the Sudanese Republic and Senegal form the Federation of Mali, and by 1960, France agreed to their full independence. So we still have a French target in this incident.
The targets of ISIS are France, Russia, and the USA. They are clearly attempting to create a war against non-Islamic countries in what appears to engage the entire war with religion at the center.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Sovereign Debt Crisis - Capital moves to the private sector, not to confuse this with rising stocks in a speculative boom.

How Stocks Rise in an Economic Decline

Japan is in another recession but the Nikkei continues to go up!!
I assume this is mainly because of the carry trade??
Your thought, please.
 ANSWER: This is the New Age of Economics. When you enter a Sovereign Debt Crisis, people lose confidence in government. When that takes place, capital moves to the private sector. Stocks will rise as a hedge against government in such situations. Do not confuse this with rising stocks in a speculative boom. This is the phase of trying to get off the grid. Things act differently then. There is a different outcome than hyperinflation, which has taken place in a peripheral economy but never in a main economy from purely economics.

I have explained before, the collapse of Rome was NOT due to hyperinflation. It was FIRST due to the collapse in confidence when Valerian I was captured by the Persians, turned into a slave, and stuffed when he died as a trophy. When people no longer trust the state, the monetary system collapses. It is never HYPERINFLATION first — it’s the result of the collapse in confidence. That is what the goldbugs never get and it is why they lose so much money waiting for inflation to appear first. They simply do not understand how the real world functions, no less the monetary system. They hang their entire thesis on the German hyperinflation without understanding that it was a communist revolution that disavowed the national debt of the previous government by wiping out banks and savings as they invited the Russian communists to take Germany. If you had any tangible wealth, you hoarded it; you certainly did not have money on deposit in banks.
Japanese-Debasement 760-958AD
In the case of Japan, each emperor issued new coins and devalued the outstanding money supply to 10% of his new coinage. Eventually, people simply refused to accept Japanese coins, and as a result, bags of rice became money and Japanese emperors LOST the confidence of the people and could no longer issue coins for 600 years.

Origin of Dollar Sign

8 Reals
Apparently, there is some new conspiracy theory running around that claims that the dollar sign ($) is some sort of symbol for a secret banking cartel because “S” is not found in the word “dollar”. Sorry, it seems that these people are desperate to create some support for whatever it is they are trying to say. First of all, the word “dollar” comes from the German “thaler” because there was such resentment toward England that the colonists refused to use the word “pound” for money.
The British needed money badly, so they demanded any payment from the colonists was to be in silver and gold, but any payment to America was to be in copper. This resulted in AMERICA being starved of money to the point that they issued paper money. The standard coin used in America was the Spanish 8 reals, which became the dollar. A piece of eight was cutting this up like a pie. One eighth of a dollar or one silver real was one “bit”, so 2 bits was 25 cents, 4 bits was half a dollar, and 8 bits equaled a dollar.
$Therefore, the dollar sign “$” came from the Spanish 8 reals, not from some secret banking cartel destined to rule the world. There is no secret hidden image of meaning behind the symbol. It was merely taken from the Spanish coins that were in circulation throughout the American colonies since the British needed money and extracted everything from America, just as governments are doing again today.

Silver history in US

Are Goldbugs Howling at the Moon with $100,000 Prices?

COMMENT: Marty, the goldbugs are like jihadists, they are now proclaiming China will buy all gold and make it $50,000 to $100,000 an ounce. When wrong, just raise the targets to even more insane levels. They really hate your guts and the closer gold comes to making new lows the personal attacks on you escalate. It is clear that they are deranged and think if they can slander you they will save gold. They also said your “big money” can park in gold if it is $50,000 to $100,000 and ounce. That would be fiat if government dictated such a price. They are out of their minds with this obsession.
This is becoming a pathetic display of insanity like getting 73 virgins if you sacrifice your savings. They are claiming you have been wrong on the stock market that it is flat and that proves you are wrong on gold. I suppose they missed the call where you said it would peak in May, drop into August and base this year below 18500. They twist and lie about everything. I am coming to the conclusion they are just lunatics who bark at the Moon for they are no financial analyst and certainly do not understand the economy.
Keep up the good work
GMW-Dow Jones DJIND Monthly
REPLY: Well, the computer did a good job forecasting the U.S. share market. The goldbugs can howl at the moon all they want, but the markets are never wrong. The computer nailed the May high, called for a waterfall crash, and then picked the low. The facts are the facts, yet they are desperate to say otherwise in hopes of saving gold. The markets dictate the outcome — not their rantings.
Gold is a hedge against government and it will rally when the timing is right. We have stated that will be right and gave the benchmark dates. This is all about them being wrong, and like Marx, trying to deny that there is a business cycle.
From the global view, you can see why they have been wrong. They only look at the world in dollars. When we look at the Dow, the peak was 2000 in euros. That year produced the highest close. The 2007 rally in the U.S. share market was NOT the major high in terms of currencies. The 2009 low was the major low. In terms of currencies, we have only six years up. This warns that the Dow will rise further globally, meaning the dollar will move higher.
In terms of dollars, both the Dax (Germany) and CAC40 (France) share indexes reflect the same situation of the major high being 2000, not 2007 or currently. ftse-$
Looking at the British FTSE reveals a flat top, which suggests that this will breakout to new highs. This is likely going to be capital shifting inside Europe to the pound to abandon the euro.
It is nonsense to think that gold will go up to $50,000 to $100,000 or that China will back its currency with gold at such levels. The world abandoned silver after the Prussian War. The silver miners convinced U.S. politicians to buy their silver and force the world to accept whatever ratio they dictated. Well, they bankrupted the USA because the silver/gold ratio that they fixed at 16:1 was 30:1 outside of the USA. That did not end very nicely, yet they think arbitrarily raising the price of gold to $100,000 will solve the problem. China has absolutely ZERO intention of such insanity.
They can rant against me all they want, but it will not make them right. Gold will not rally before its time. We have given the targets at the conference. The manipulators have it easy. Just rally gold $50 and they run out and buy more. Then it is taken back down and they do it again in three months. I seriously question why they are praised for cheer-leading every rally.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015


Clarification on Energy


Nuclear Fission is the splitting of the nucleus of an atom which releases enormous among of energy and radiation. This is what is used in nuclear bombs and energy.Fusion-R

Fusion if the opposite process which is the merging of nuclei. This is actually the same process taking place within the Sun and stars. The obstacle has been generating enough heat here on earth to accomplish this process. There are MANY companies involved in this process and if accomplished, then we would be looking at the end of fossil fuels and the cost would be infinitely smaller. This could be the next major innovation that spurs a leap forward in the economic progress of humankind.
Cold Fusion is the dream of creating this process at room temperature. Before we see this technology in use, we are probably looking at the next wave 2024-2028. Keep in mind, that if this technology is accomplished, it would profoundly change everything.

Low-Energy Nuclear Reactions & the Economic Confidence Model

Is there any conceptual common nonlinear resonance ground shared between the ECM and the underlying theory explaining LENR?
ANSWERLow Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR) are indeed very interesting. I have concluded that whatever process we observe in any area of science will be discovered in all layers. What many consider “cold fusion” may not be fusion at all. The Widom-Larsen theory does not require any new physics discovery of laws. Essentially, the Widom-Larsen theory states what is actually taking place is a multistep process. The Plasmon modes in hydrated metals (like surface electrons acting collectively as a herd or mob) are energized in various ways and are then absorbed by protons. This produces a very low energy neutron, which is the reverse of neutron decay, due to the weak nuclear force. Now these low-energy neutrons are absorbed rather easily. Consequently, this creates a cascade effect of unstable isotopes that go into beta decay. During the beta decay phase, gamma ray photons are ejected and collide, hitting the metal Plasmon. At that moment, they are shifted (like a phase transition) into mostly IR (heat) with a soft X-ray tail.
This would explain cold fusion, which is a hypothetical type of nuclear reaction at room temperature. This is the opposite of what takes place in the sun. There is currently no accepted theoretical model that would allow cold fusion to occur.
I can say that the Widom-Larsen theory would appear to follow the structural design of economic changes as well. The majority must be wrong; that becomes the catalyst where the smallest amount of pressure against an overextended market at tops or bottoms creates the reversal in trend and the biggest move of energy. This phase transition creates spike highs and waterfall events of cascade failure that results in major panic lows. Every investigation assumes some huge player has overpowered the market, but no one has ever been discovered since 1907. The source of energy comes from within. The punch can be anything. The system is set up at an extreme, so it can be akin to a herd of zebra –– one zebra sees a lion and begins to run, which causes the other zebras to start running, despite never seeing the lion. This is the release of energy (heat so to speak) from a resting body.

Carving up the Middle East

QUESTION: Why did ISIS target France rather than Germany? Someone said it was France who created Syria. Is that really true?
ANSWER: Germany is not actually a target in this chess game. It is one reason we selected Berlin for our conferences even compared to London since we had Panic Cycles in November. Germany has less than 62,000 in its army and being in the army in Germany was perhaps worse than a tax collector. The joke was the German army does not shoot. Germany is not in the view of ISIS as is France, Britain, and USA. Germany may be the biggest economy in Europe, but the people blamed their own military for the nation’s suffering as did Japan.
Partition-Middle EastIndeed, the Middle East, as we know it today, emerged from decisions made by the Allies during and after the World War I. It was Britain and France who took it upon themselves to transform what had been provinces of the old Ottoman Empire into the modern states we have come to know, This has created an international tinderbox that remains at the core of the current conflicts and politics in the Middle East.
The partitioning of the Middle East into the Arab provinces of the Ottoman Empire was set under the terms of a secret Sykes-Picot Agreement of April-May 1916. The agreement gave Mesopotamia (Iraq), the Gulf and the regions bordering Palestine to Britain, and Syria and most of the eastern part of the region to France.
War-Middle East

The Cairo Conference was a meeting of Britain’s Middle East experts which began formally on the morning of Saturday, March 12, 1921. The conference approved a plan for giving control over two large pieces of the former Turkish territories that Britain controlled to princes in the Hashemite family. It was agreed that Prince Feisal, with whom T.E. Lawrence had worked during and after World War I, would become king of a new country created from the Turkish Province of Mesopotamia; it would be called Iraq. His brother, Prince Abdullah, would rule a country made up of Palestine west of the Jordan River: Transjordan (now Jordan).
Britain’s interest in the provinces focused on safeguarding the trade route to India, to ensure cheap and accessible oil for the Britain’s requirements. Therefore, maintaining the balance of power in the Mediterranean was essential to its economic advantage.
France hoped to maintain its centuries-old ties with the Syrian Catholics. In so doing, France looked to establish a strategic and economic base in the eastern Mediterranean. It was not oil then, but maintaining a cheap supply of cotton and silk and prevent Arab nationalism from destabilizing France’s North African empire. Therefore, it was France who held Syria in the partition process. That is coming back to haunt them to this day.

Monday, November 16, 2015

Reforming the Federal Reserve

Posted on November 16, 2015 by 
QUESTION: In your Nov. 15 blog you said about the Fed “ I do not think in its present form it should be owned by banks collecting 6%. I would advocate a public float as is the case in Switzerland. Can you explain what that means, and how that works. Thank you
I sincerely hope you continue your blog. I have been trying to get a handle on how the markets work. It really requires a lot of thought until one can feel comfortable.
There is a ring of truth to what you say.
Thank you.
ANSWER: The Fed is far more independent than many portray. Its decisions to raise or lower interest rates are not at the direction of bankers, but its understanding that it must steer a realistic path. Yellen has inherited a nightmare. Raised were lowered and the Fed became trapped, They stopped buying 30 year bonds and moved to mortgage securities. It cannot sell anything it now holds. Yellen realized that the pension funds will go belly up and keeps saying the rates must rise to be “normalized”.

The Fed is far too much influenced by politics. We cannot afford a central bank controlled by politicians. Likewise, bankers should not control the Fed if they no longer retain loans on their books and sell them becoming transactional bankers.

The only solution would be that the Fed is floated publicly so anyone can buy shares. The influence of politicians and bankers must come to an end. Banks should NOT be qualified for any bailout on their trading – PERIOD. If they do not retain loans, they are not entitle to use elastic money. Floating the Fed makes it a private corporation that must report its balance sheet like everyone else. Congress MUST be forbidden to order the Fed to do anything. That has been the problem all along. Stimulation should be returned to buying corporate paper, not hand banks cash and hope they lend it out. Enough is enough.

Fed v Congress v Bankers

QUESTION: Don’t you think it is wrong that the private banks own the institution that administers them.
ANSWER: You have to understand what was intended. It was originally a bailout entity for banks so they had to fund it. That made sense initially, Then with time and circumstances, the Fed has morphed into something that is now some quasi-political-governmental-agency that nobody would have created from the outset.
I do not think the Fed should be owned by the Treasury since then politicians will control it for political purposes. I can hear it now: “Vote for me and I will give free interest on credit cards!” I do not think in its present form it should be owned by banks collecting 6%. I would advocate a public float as is the case in Switzerland.
My point is the politicians keep changing the Fed and relieve themselves of ALL fiscal responsibility for economic booms and busts and blame the Fed, which is wrong, since they are the primary cause of aggravating the business cycle.
I do not advocate conspiracy theories against the Fed or criticism of exclusively the Fed ignoring the role of Congress. To solve the problem we MUST look at the whole. You need a central bank to clear. Bank failures were because of relationship banking where they borrow short-term and lend long-term. Elastic money made sense under the idea you did not have to liquidate loans to repay depositors in a panic. The elastic money would expand during a panic and then contract when over.
Now that banks are doing transactional banking and not holding long-term loans on their books, then they no longer need elastic money or bailouts and should collapse when they screw up. They should be held for CRIMINAL prosecution if they are trading with other people’s money. You cannot have it both ways. If the Fed is to stimulate, then they should buy corporate paper, not government, and then the money is directly injected into the economy whereas currently the banks still refuse to lend money long-term.
The Fed is caught between politicians and bankers. That is not a very nice place to be these days. We will have to REFORM this position after the crash, but eliminating the Fed will create chaos and it will not solve the problem as long as Congress has any power to create debt and the big banks moved to transactional banking abandoning relationship banking.

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Who Owns the Fed?


The Federal Reserve is not owned by foreign banks, the Queen of England, the Rothschilds, or whomever. The shareholders are American banks. However, the Fed does pay 6% dividends to the private banks that own the shares. The Political Research Associates is a far more reliable source than the people who use bogus books with an agenda.
We could transfer the shareholding to the Treasury, but that would only tempt the Executive who would raise or lower rates for political purposes. We could float the Fed and make their shares public on the NYSE, which would require full disclosure. That is one possible solution.
It is true that foreign share holders bought into Alexander Hamilton’s first bank, but that was not the Federal Reserve. They were investing in an emerging market. This also culminated in the first American banking crisis and bailout – Panic of 1791.
Right now, a 6% fixed dividend is a great investment. It is way out of line with negative rates today.
Here is a list of the top shareholders in the New York Federal Reserve:
  • Chase Manhatten Bank
  • Citibank
  • Morgan Guaranty Trust Company
  • Fleet Bank
  • Bankers Trust
  • Bank of New York
  • Marine Midland Bank, and
  • Summit Bank

Ancient International Tourism

Posted on by   


QUESTION: Is it true that tourism existed in ancient times? I was in Italy and the guide said this was an ancient tradition.

ANSWER: International Tourism was actually formally born because Augustus (27BC-14AD) had wiped the Mediterranean clean of pirates making travel possible other than trade. The roads and highways were safe for travel and there was a viable hotel (inn) industry which emerged as well as tour guides. People have always been fascinated by the ancient world’s wonders which were old to them as well like Egypt. Romans were the tourists exploring of Italy, Greece, Asia Minor (now Turkey), and Egypt. This is most likely the earliest tourist industry to be international. Local tourism exists even before the Romans.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Dow - Key support lies down at 16500.

The Dow

DJIND-W 11-13-2015

The Dow is pulling back on schedule. We do not see a breakout to the upside. This should tread water for a bit waiting for everything to align. A closing today below 17785 will signal that this is not ready to breakout and a retest of support is likely. Key support lies down at 16500.

DJFOR-W 11-13-2015

ECB vs FED. Latin Monetary Union

Market Manipulation Confusion


QUESTION: You say that long-term manipulations are impossible while short-term manipulations have been the focus of the bankers. Do you mean to say that not even governments can manipulate the economy perpetually? Are central banks buying US equities to manipulate the US stock market higher? It would seem that the Fed would then be accused of creating a bubble. What is going on?
Thank you.

ANSWER: Ever since Marx, the Age of “New Economics” as Volcker put it came to an end with the collapse of Bretton Woods and the Crash of 1974. Of course governments have tried to manipulate society and the economy. All governments operate out of their self-interest and they impose punishment as their weapon. They have falsified the statistics, revised them routinely especially CPI because they learned that everything was indexed to CPI so if you reduce the CPI you cut benefits without having to confront the people. After 1980, they removed real estate and replace it with rents using the argument that the former was investment not cost of living.


The entire game of manipulating society is to maintain their power. They historically will do whatever they need to do to achieve that goal. They routinely manipulate the truth using the press. Nobody will report that the Clintons not merely removed ALL restraints against the banks from Intrastate Banking to Glass-Steagall, but they also made student loans non-dischargable in bankruptcy at the bankers’ request so they could securitize them. Nobody will bring that up about Hillary because she is the favorite of the press. They attack Ben Carson and Trump all the time but Hillary they assume is a coronation.

There is a HUGE difference from claiming these private people or governments CAN manipulate everything indefinitely and realizing that no matter who they are they CANNOT perpetually manipulate society or the economy. If the former is true, then there would be no crash and burn; just a flat-line. Sorry, people may not like that statement, but there is no proof that ANYTHING has been perpetually suppressed indefinitely. Too many say markets are perpetually manipulated as if it were simply a fact, yet tell people to buy them anyhow. They cannot offer any proof that would stand up in a real court yet anyone who disagrees is evil and dangerous.


Society has been manipulated by government for typically 26 years (most common), 31 years (as Proprietary Trading), or the most extreme which follows the volatility models of 72 years (Communism). When it comes to the collapse of the monetary system (sovereign defaults) we are looking at 10 x the 8.6 which brings us to 86 years. So from the Roosevelt devaluation of the dollar in 1934, we should see the monetary system change in 2020. There are plenty of oscillations back and forth with each interval. Nothing is ever a straight line.

ECM Banking Proprietary Trading

The era of bank manipulations (Proprietary Trading) of numerous markets for SHORT-TERM plays began in 1981 and came to an end in 2013. Nobody documented market manipulations as I did. This was a huge issue in court where they threatened to throw all my lawyers in prison unless they handed over those tapes. So I find it ironic to claim I deny manipulations when they exaggerate everything to support their own failures.
The European banks have mostly withdrawn from manipulations while the “club” in New York are still active but their ranks are also diminishing. This will now lead to the further collapse in liquidity and that means much higher volatility.


If you cannot understand the difference, then you obviously do not have any real experience. Here is a TAPED PHONE CALL which has survived on the silver manipulation before Buffett had to admit that he bought $1 billion in silver between myself and a dealer who was not part of the manipulation which was ENTIRELY short-term and not perpetual..

It was on January 28th, 1998 a class action lawsuit was filed against the commodities firms that had been buying the silver. The lawsuit maintained the price of silver was being manipulated because the price of silver was rising as gold was going down, an “unprecedented” occurrence. With accusations that silver prices were being manipulated and a CFTC announcement that it was looking into the accusations, Buffet’s Berkshire issued a press release on February 3rd, 1998 disclosing the purchase of $1 billion denying he was manipulating silver, yet silver still fell to new lows and the positions were sold. The professionals stepped aside. Who were the victims? Retail small investors as always who were sucked in by many of the same people. Ask them what their forecast was during this one. Where they a analyst and said DON’T BUY its a manipulation or were they a cheer-leader as with every rally since 2011?


Even Bretton Woods, there was the 1960 crack, then 1963 (which resulted in removing silver from coinage in 1964), 1966, 1968 (two-tier gold market begins, and finally 1971 collapse. The Bretton Woods system was implement in 1945 when the IMF was born. What have I stated countless times?


The longest recession is 26 years. The Long Depression of the 19th century was 26 years starting with the Panic of 1873 concluding with the peak in interest rates in 1899. Japan bubble peaked in 1989 and we should see a shift start next year as 2015 was 26 years down.

Latin Monetary Union

It does not appear historically that anything can be perpetually manipulated for the free market will always create the check and balance. There is no historical trend that anyone can point to. Even the Latin Monetary Union of the 19th-century attempted to unify several European currencies into a single currency like the Euro but without the surrender of sovereignty. The currencies in 1865 were standardized so the same weight of a gold coin was interchangeable without requiring foreign exchange fees. This lasted for two Pi cycles totally 62 years, but there were some interruptions due to war. It was disbanded in 1927 and that was not a manipulation, just a monetary union trying to create a single European currency back then for trade.


Governments today are desperately trying to control everything from the press onward. This is the drive to create electronic money which is a final straw in their desperate manipulation to sustain power to force everyone into taxation.

The real MANIPULATION is not to suppress a single market, it is to control society. That is the big game afoot. It is much bigger than simply trying to suppress gold. That accomplishes nothing. Gold is the HEDGE AGAINST GOVERNMENT and that they know. This is why they are trying to track gold movement. We are approaching the TIME when the metals will reverse. That comes ONLY when the majority lose confidence in government. We can see the trend starting to prepare for that is why Trump is leading. It is not about him personally, it is about throwing out career politicians and we are seeing this as a global trend. When the CONFIDENCE in government declines for the majority, that is when things go nuts. It has nothing to do with fiat, manipulations, bankers, or whatever. It is the collapse in confidence in government.



I have shown this chart on the collapse of the Roman Monetary System many times. The collapse takes place AFTER the emperor Valerian I is captured by the Persians. Can you imagine the blow to confidence if Obama was captured by Putin and he turned him into his foot-stool and the US was powerless to invade? Then you would see the collapse in the dollar just as the Romans saw the collapse in their currency. It is ALWAYS a confidence game.

As far as central banks buying US equities, no they are not manipulating the market. Interest rates are way too low and equities offer better return. But additionally, countries like Switzerland lost a fortune on the Euro peg in the area of 50 billion Swiss francs. The total population of Switzerland is just over 8 million. That  means they lost 6200 francs per person or about $7,000 per person at the time.

Fed v ECB


The Euro is a failure. There is nothing left in the world for big money BUT the dollar. So the lack of alternative reserves have forced central banks to buy equities. They are all NOT creating money to buy equities out of thin air. Anyone who claims that is revealing their lack of international knowledge and are judging the world by the Fed, which has the power to create money as an elastic money supply. I explained back in 2011 the structural difference between the ECB and the Federal Reserve.

Anyone who claims all central banks have the same powers has not done their homework. Some buy US equities selling bonds and shifting assets WITHOUT creating money. It is just not true that all central banks can create money elastically. However, many have now been given powers to create money to achieve Quantitative Easing, but it is not unlimited in many cases whereas the Federal Reserve does not require Congressional approval to buy more debt since it has the power to create elastic money from the beginning.

To carry out Quantitative Easing central banks create money by buying securities, such as government bonds, from banks, with electronic cash that did not exist before. The new money swells the size of bank reserves in the economy by the quantity of assets purchased—hence “quantitative” easing.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) took a huge hit on its attempt to manipulate the currency market by creating the euro-franc peg. So if they lost money, how does this stack up if they can just print money at will? It would seem strange that they could ever lose under this scenario. The SNB had a huge loss on foreign exchange positions that were denominated in Euros. These Euro positions were bought in a desperate attempt to prevent the appreciation of the Swiss franc against the Euro for trade purposes.

However, the losses were partially offset by 10 billion in price gains on stocks and bonds in its portfolio like any other investor.

Contrary to this idea that all central banks are the same, here the SNB includes 236 million in its income derived from negative interest rates paid by depositors for holding deposits there at the central bank. This is a revenue source which the Fed can only dream of where the Fed pays 0.25% on excess reserves amounting to welfare for bankers.

Therefore, the huge loss on the peg is the result of mark-to-market accounting on assets rater than just showing original  cost accounting as Japan did. In its published financial statements, the SNB is required by Swiss law to mark its investments to the current market price which includes both securities (stocks and bond holdings) and gold holdings. This is strikingly different for the Federal Reserve is not mark-to-market. The SNB on March 31st posted a net worth of 56 billion chf, compared to its 581 billion in total assets yielding a 9.7% capital to-assets ratio, after the huge loss on the peg. The capitalization of the SNB is about 2% greater than the Federal Reserve, which is $58 billion.

Additionally, the Constitution of the Swiss Confederation required the SNB to hold part of its reserves in gold set at 7%. There was a Swiss goldbug referendum where about 78% of the people voted against expanding central bank gold reserves to 20% from 7%. The SNB held 39 billion in gold, marked to market on which they have suffered a huge loss since 2011.


The Federal Reserve owns zero gold because in 1933, Roosevelt took the Fed’s gold, along with everybody else’s; something overlooked by the conspiracy generators. Moreover, shares of the SNB actually trade on the Swiss stock exchange with annual shareholder meetings. The Fed’s shares are held by key banks but they do not trade on any exchange.

The Fed’s balance sheet shows as of August 2015, that the “average daily balance of the Federal Reserve SOMA holdings was approximately $4.2 trillion during the first half of 2015. Net earnings from the portfolio were approximately $54.6 billion; most of the earnings were attributable to interest income on Treasury securities and federal agency and GSE MBS.” The Fed does not mark investments to market.

There is a TIME and PRICE where you sell and when you buy. That is the fundamental basis to everything. People who never say sell only buy and hold are dangerous for they do not take reality into consideration. But so are those who simply look at the Fed and PRESUME all central banks operate the same. There are significant differences. The goldbugs hate me because I do not give people fake advise telling them to only buy and hold no matter what. They argue I was pro-gold before and turned against gold after. Sorry, it is called being an analyst. So they try to slander me because they are wrong. They have no conscience when people lose everything. They show no remorse, just hatred toward me for calling it as it is. If you are a real analyst, you are supposed to HELP people, not bury them or trade against them. Fake analysts and politicians share the same trait – neither can say they are ever wrong. It’s always the other guy’s fault.

Telling people to buy and hold and now saying gold will go to $100,000 is just wrong and it is the very propaganda the bankers want them to say to get people to buy from them at the top of every rally. That is not analysis, it is propaganda if not fraud. No real analyst gives one-sided advice for that means they are not doing the job of analysis. You personally attack someone (messenger) when you cannot rebut the message.



Gold will rally on schedule. The entire world economy functions because we are all connected. Arguing manipulation because you cannot see the trend as a whole is pretty pathetic. The free markets rule for that is Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand. Even Communism fell after 72 years (1917-1989). They killed Kondratieff for making that statement that the cycle will prevail and no doubt they would love to kill me for the same reason. Those who now want to argue manipulation and there is no business cycle are taking the very same position as Stalin who had Kondratieff killed and Keynes who argued for government manipulation of society.

Sorry – the Business Cycle will ALWAYS win even against the goldbugs when they try to defy its existence as did Marx, Keynes and Stalin. Nobody has ever defeated the Business Cycle even once. Gold will rally to new highs only when everything is lined up. They will never admit that nor do they understand the global alignment because they only see everything through the eyes of metals and nothing else. An analyst does not lead people to the altar of the manipulators for slaughter.