Saturday, February 28, 2015

US may decline at first with the DAX and then base turning up for the last 2 year phase transition into 2017

Posted on by   

CSP500-w 2-28-2015

The US share market compared to the DAX is lagging. We can see our Energy models have been declining as we have pressed begrudgingly higher. The Oscillators, more commonly used, are crawling at the highs. While we still see the potential for new highs here in March, the lack of a spike high on our Energy Models compared to the DAX is telling for the long-term. This strongly suggests that the US share market will make new highs after 2015.75 on a capital inflow.

1927-Secret Cental Bank Meeting

We appear to be in that 1927 moment where the Central Banks secretly got together and tried to deflect the capital inflows to the USA to help Europe. The USA lowered its interest rates in 1927 and then was forced to raise rates virtually doubling them trying to stop the rally into 1929.

DJ2731-W False Move

What we are currently looking at is perhaps the False Move. The US may decline at first with the DAX and then base turning up for the last 2 year phase transition into 2017. This too may line up with 86 years from the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931. So here too we could be facing the dreaded TENTH WAVE. A False move will shake the tree and get the fundamentalists on the bearish side yelling “see – I told you so.” Obviously, this will be one of those times we need an unbiased global capital flow model to track where the money will be shifting to.


We will be putting on line our famous Capital Flow tracking system that only the biggest institution ever got to see. This will be available to those brave souls ready to cross that line from the old world of personal opinion into the new realm of a computer that really is tracking the world. It would take thousands of analysts to do this and then you need a team they report to and finally someone at the top of that to coordinate the disparities. This is the only way ahead to the future. There really is none other. Personal interpretation and soap-boxes are just still preaching the world is flat. Fortunately, there will always be skeptics who will prefer fundamental analysis so no worries – the majority will always be in the dark. It is like politics 45% will vote Democrats no matter the evidence and 45% will vote Republic refusing to ever switch. Ah! But that 10% are the real movers-and-shakers in society. This is for that most distinguished 10%.

DAX has entered the danger-zone for a serious high in 2015.75. Mar -temp high.

So What’s Up With the DAX?

DAXCSH-W 2-27-2015

Previously I have warned that the DAX would press higher as the object of capital flight within Europe. The problem we are facing is that the DAX could peak-out with this ECM turning point. If this were to unfold with a high in the DAX to the day of the ECM, this will be the kiss-of-death for Europe and it would be the strongest possible warning that a dollar rally will create massive deflation ahead. We can see our Energy Models are pointing to a run-up that is more indicative of a serious high forming rather than just a temporary high.

DAXFOR-W 2-27-2015

We still see March as a key target and advise our European readers to pay close attention here as we move into the next couple of weeks.

DAXCSH-M 2-28-2015

As we look into March, we can see the technical resistance begins at 1163781 level on a broad monthly basis. This is the next target area for a high.

DAXUS$-W 2-28-2015

Looking at the DAX in dollars, we can see here too we are following the Projection on the Weekly Level rather closely. Our Energy models are warning also that the DAX has entered the danger-zone for a serious high.
There remains the possibility that 2015.75 becomes as an important high for Europe as the EU is fighting a losing battle. Brussels is destroying the European economy – not lifting it out of trouble. What we are looking at here is perhaps a precursor to the next very serious Great Depression with unemployment at twice the level at a minimum compared to where they were BEFORE the Great Depression that began in 1929.
1-ECM 2032
Another very serious marker is the fact that 1929 to 2015 just so happens to be 86 years. This is the TENTH 8.6 year wave. This warns that what comes after the TENTH Wave historically is major change. This is WHY we have been warning that 2015 was the start of BIG BANG.
A lot of people have sent in links to suddenly a bunch of people trying to mimic our models. That is all they can do for the ONLY reliable aspect is the ABSENCE of Human Interpretation. Standing on one’s soap-box and pretending they have some fantastic model combining various forms of analysis is cute. But as long as there is human interpretation required, there is human error. Nobody can forecast what they have not experienced from a personal wisdom perspective. Their interpretations typically follow some preconceived vision of the future and therein lies the entire problem. The more they pretend, the greater the risk that when it comes time to try to take that step forward for society, these types of people will only discredit any advancement. They do far more damage to society as a whole than they will ever contemplate while trying to get rich. You cannot advise others if you have not done it yourself.

France - even less of a chance of solving the problem of austerity without creating the next French Revolution.

Greece the Distraction for France

While Greece captures the headlines, quietly behind the curtain the European Commission has granted France until 2017 to bring its budget deficit below the EU limit of 3% of GDP. So while everyone has their eye on Greece, Europe’s second largest economy has one of the highest social welfare bills and even less of a chance of solving the problem of austerity without creating the next French Revolution.
France is a €2 trillion economy with overall unemployment really over 15% and youth unemployment at shocking levels. Our models on France show no hope whatsoever in coming into line for as the ECM turns down, so will its tax revenues as unemployment rises significantly. Its high Muslim population will also help distract attention from economics and civil unrest there will be more characterized by religion.

Real Estate & The Business Cycle

QUESTION: Hi Martin,
I live here in Fairfax County, VA. Wow! The government largesse almost feels like 2006 again. Real estate values have almost climbed back to 2005 levels. I cannot believe that people here are paying 600k for 15-year-old townhomes under high tension wires. I guess it is the low interest rates. Those units can rent for about 2500/month. All the traditional investment ratios are screaming code red. Ratios like Price/Rent. GRM, Cap Rate, etc, indicate extremely overbought again. However, the rents are higher than in 2005-06, so prices are not as overbought as back then – though they are getting there.
The anecdotal evidence for a top keep piling up. I know of a few couples who are buying bigger homes and keeping the older homes, and using them as rentals.
This brings me to a paper I read that you wrote back in November, 2009, while you were in prison. It seems so prescient. You stated that 2015 would be the high, as you stated 2015.75 would be for the debt bubble.
From this paper you wrote over five years ago, you predicted a bump up into 2015 with a drop thereafter for years. It worked out perfectly so far – a 2012 low to a 2015 high.
How bad will it get for the average mortgage payer? How bad will it get for residential real estate? I own several paid down/paid off rental houses in Maryland, across the Potomac that generate a ton of cash flow. What should I do? I kind of have become dependent on the free cash flow. What will happen with rents? They have gone way up over the past several years, as the foreclosures have displaced (continue to displace) so many wage earners.
I ask, because you have mentioned real estate in passing, but I have not seen you directly address it like you did in that 2009 paper.
Anyway, I intend to come to Princeton this time around later in the year. I am a quiet person, so I will be the one keeping to himself.
Thank you so much for all that you have done. All these cycles make so much sense now that I have been studying your work for the past couple years. It answers the questions I have had, but couldn’t answer.
Best regards,
ANSWER: Yes, 2007 was the broad market peak. The 2015 high is the higher-end market that has been driven primarily by capital inflows which people trying to get off the grid. The concern here is that property taxes will now rise and the real net value of property may decline relative to everything else. Parking money in real estate at this time may produce the equivalent of negative interest rates when all is said and done. There are advertisements in Asia and Europe as well as Russia offering real estate in New York City for a little as $10,000. This is speculation once again.
The majority of mortgages are conventional with 20% down so this is not the same type of high as took place in 2007. Banks are transactional now so they will write the mortgage and resell it. With interest rates negative and mortgages at least offer collateral, they are still better to invest in compared to sovereign debt where you will get nothing.
Our problem is what Rome faced. The greater the economic turmoil in government, the more aggressive they become in taxation. In this regard, real estate is not a movable asset and it can cross the bell curve and decline due to taxation and the lack of mobility. Romans just began to walk away from their property. Therefore, property in North America will tend to be the safest only because it is extremely difficult to invade with troops and tanks. Blow it up with a nuke – sure, but then nothing matters anyway. So staying within the realm of reality, the greatest threat will be taxation.
Those interested in real estate, run out now and take the longest possible mortgage at a FIXED rate in the domestic currency of where the property is located and/or you wealth with rates this low. If you use a cross-currency, then you better pay attention to hedging. This is a hedge so if it ever gets that bad, you can just walk away as did the Romans. DO  NOT assume real estate is a store of value. That depends on the taxation level of the local government and the location.

US Real Estate peaking in 2015.75 for now.

Two questions about real estate have been asked by many people:
1. Do you think it is wise now to buy a house and get hooked on a mortgage knowing that 2015.75 is around the corner? 
2. Do you think residential real estate valuations and interest rates will collapse on the other side of 2015.75 and should I wait until around 2016.8 to buy? 
Mortgage rates are going into a major low. When the economy turns, the availability of mortgages will decline as always with the cycle. If you have cash and want to buy real estate cheap, yes it is wise to wait. If you want to play the game, then you can buy now and hedge this with shorts/puts on bonds. It depends on your expertise.
Depending on the area, those that have seen the sharpest advances will drop the most. There should be some stabilization as foreign capital will still flow into the USA and real estate plotted in dollars may decline while it is still rising in Euros or Yuan.

Friday, February 27, 2015

Russia's ECM cycles

Feb 27, 2015
Marin Armstrong

Leave a reply

The Political Cycle of Russia

Russia Political Cycles
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have perhaps the most educational site on the web for those of us trying to figure out the economy. I appreciate your unbiased perspective and your view of how it has always been the government against the people. You are the only person in the West who has ever bothered to mention how many Russians were killed by our own government. What do you see for Russia now?
Спасибо за все ваши усилия
ANSWER: I am honored that we have so many people from Russia now reading this site. This first step in avoiding becoming just the pawns of finance is to seek knowledge and let the facts speak rather than politicians. We must realize that we all follow basic patterns of human nature. It is always governments who point the finger at other groups as the cause for one thing or another. It is governments that create wars, not the people. Unfortunately, way too may are manipulated by government and cannot see the light. Many of my school friends died in Vietnam along with some 50,000+. What did they die for? A battle against communism that would collapse on its own without bloodshed? Did they die so others in charge could feel powerful? When King Louis XIV was on his deathbed, he lamented that perhaps he had loved war too much. The entire purpose of the right to bear arms in the US Constitution was to eliminate standing armies for historically waging war was easier when you were paying for armies anyway. Why not get your money’s worth.
The entire swing in politics toward the left that erupted in Russia truly began with the Russian Revolution of 1905, although the seeds were originally planted back in 1880 with the proposed new Constitution Alexander II never got to sign due to his assassination, which was a 19th century tool of revolution. It was 1905 when the Soviet labor unions were first formed. The Revolution of 1905 was a wave of mass political and social unrest which spread through vast areas of the Russian Empire. Much of this uprising was directed against the government, while some was against industry. It included worker strikes, peasant unrest, and military mutinies. It led to the establishment of limited constitutional monarchy, the State Duma of the Russian Empire, the multi-party system, and the Russian Constitution of 1906.

The origins of serfdom in Russia clearly trace back to Kievan Rus’ in the 11th century. Obviously, there was a feudal dependency upon peasants, the term for an unfree peasant in the Russian Empire, krepostnoi krestyanin (крепостной крестьянин), which is translated as serf. Serfdom came rather late to Russia whereas it was the standard economic system before capitalism following the collapse of Rome in 476AD. Its hallmark was the lack of ownership of property by the people.
Thrasymachus Quote

Capitalism is in reality FREEDOM of the masses to own property, earn wages, and invest as they desire while providing for their family, which in turn took care of them in their old age. Socialism seems to have as its goal, destroying that family unit structure replacing it with government. It is natural for socialists to seize government to force upon the rest of society their personal greed that no one should have more than they do violating the Ten Commandments, which forbids coveting their neighbor’s goods and possessions, as they pretend to be fair and good Christians. It becomes all government’s best interest to replace the family unit as much as possible. Thrasymachus in his famous debate with Socrates got it dead on. There is absolutely no difference between the forms of government for they all call “justice” the very same thing – their own self-interest. Hence Edward Snowden is called a traitor for he informed the people what the government was illegally doing to them.
Alexander II of Russia (1818-1881)

The West is largely ignorant of Russian history. Whereas Serfdom ended in Europe during the 14th century due to the Black Plague, it was not officially abolished in Russia until a decree was issued by Tsar Alexander II in 1861. This longer extension of serfdom in Russia compared to Europe accounts for the Communist Revolution. Serfdom became the primary and dominant form of relationship between peasants and nobility well into the 17th century. However, serfdom actually only existed in central and southern areas of the Russian Empire while it was never established in the North, the Urals, or Siberia.
Alexander I of Russia

Tsar Alexander I of Russia (b 1777; 1801-1825) moved to reform the system but was obviously opposed much, as Abraham Lincoln was opposed in attempting to end slavery in the United States. New laws, however, allowed all classes (except the serfs) to finally own land, which had been a privilege previously confined to only the nobility. Finally, serfdom was abolished in 1861 most likely because of the growing economic discontent. The news that European serfdom had collapsed no doubt spread to Russia. Consequently, there was a growing fear of a large-scale revolt by the serfs, which ultimately unfolded by 1905.

With the publication of Marx, and his instigation of political uprisings in Germany, that also deeply influenced the thinking in Russia. Therefore, we should start looking at the rise of the left-wing in Russia with the Revolution of 1905 that began shifting the power from the Tsar to the Duma.

If we begin with that date, it is most interesting the collapse of the Soviet Union took place in 1991, which was the culmination of 10 waves of 8.6 years. This should then conclude in three waves of 8.6 years, which takes us right into the 1998/1999 Russian Financial Crisis and brought Putin to power. The next wave came in at 2008 and the final wave will be 2017.


Using the standard 72 year Revolution Cycle, starting this with the beginning of the idea of socialistic politics in 1880 with the proposed new Constitution and the assassination of Alexander II, this brings us curiously to the death of Stalin. If we use the 1905 Revolution, this brings us to 1977 when Leonid Ilich Brezhnev, was elected president of the Supreme Soviet. He then seeks to expand Russia and invades Afghanistan.


We can see tremendous layers of order within the Russian political system. The 224 year cycle on Russia as a nation separate and apart from any particular government does not show a major shift until 2144. That is a profound long-term cycle. Nevertheless, we can see that the end of the Soviet Union did form pretty much on target. From that period onward, Russia is in a new cycle.

The greatest problem we have in all nations is that government believes it is the nation with sovereignty when in fact the sovereignty belongs to the people. So governments rise and fall. What is left behind is the social structure and culture of the people – not the designs of government. What remains of government are merely the relics of their glory. Such mighty giants have all fallen with their institutions lying in rubble.

The seat of power in so many governments is only the spectacle for tourists today as this one in Crete. The only thing to survive time and circumstance is human nature, our customs, nurturing, and our love of our posterity, which is passed on from generation to generation – not government. It is humanity that survives, good and bad, not the institutions, which never go quietly into the light, but rage against the dying of their power.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Difference between Marxism and Smith revolves around what is money and who produces it

Crisis in Socialism or Capitalism
There is a debate going on that tries to paint the economic crashes as due to capitalism and we should all follow Marx and eliminate wealth handing 100% of all power to government. There are really a lot of people who think communism was correct and the problem is capitalism thanks to greedy bankers. To make it perfectly clear, we are not facing just another cyclical slump that will be overcome with some new legislation. Many are welcoming this crisis of European capitalism as an opportunity to replace it with a better system of more socialism and communism by sheer force.
This is why I am doing the Solution Conference NOW. We are going to turn down hard this time and there will be a huge demand to hunt down who done it as if this were some mystery movie with Agatha Christie. This is more than trying to survive with gold coins. Everything could be thrown in the air as the table is just overturned.
Smith -Higest Impertenance
This economic crisis we face centers upon the question of money. Marx argued it was labor. The Physiocrats argued it was land and agriculture. Smith argued it was the total productive forces of society. This is critical, for the difference between Marxism and Smith revolves around what is money and who produces it. IF it is the state, then Marx wins. However, IF money is created by society, then Smith wins with a hidden element. he implies that government is not a producer of wealth but a consumer – the black hole that sucks in everything until society exists no more.
Nov 1918 Revolution Berlin
If everyone worked for government, then there would be no international capital flows for there would be no reason to invest in a land where there is no ownership – i.e. German Hyperinflation amid Communist German Revolution of 1918. Money became worthless because there would be no private property. There was no confidence in Communism and people watched in horror what unfolded in Russia the year before. The simplistic sales-promoters use the German hyperinflation to mislead people into thinking the USA will end up there by simply printing money. They do not comprehend it was a collapse in CONFIDENCE – not simply printing money. The money supply expanded as a RESULT of the collapse in confidence – not the other way around.

We are not headed to a hyperinflation nor a gold standard – we are headed into electronic money because these people are dead broke. They BELIEVE their fiscal mismanagement has nothing to do with our economic crisis – it is all our fault because we do not pay enough in taxes. This is the way all governments historically destroy themselves through massive deflation and we are plagued by lawyers who think all they have to do is write laws without any comprehension of how society functions.
A lot of readers have been sending in emails quoting various officials among central bankers who appear to be quoting me such as Yellen just stating that there will be deflation before inflation. True, central bankers have attended our World Economic Conferences. They are more likely to see the handwriting on the wall than politicians.
There are a lot of people blaming central banks as if they are the sole problem. These people are caught up in this crazy theory that inflation is linked to money supply and expect that to function on some mythical one-to-one relationship. What they fail to grasp is the economy creates its own money through lending and the velocity of money, which truly drives inflation. The amount of money need not increase but if everyone spent whatever money they get the same day, the VELOCITY of money would rise and that would be inflationary. This one-dimensional idea of inflation and money supply being tied together cannot be supported by any study whatsoever excluding everything else. There is also a lag so QE1-3 failed to produce inflation just as the expansion of money supply in Europe will NOT stop the deflation. The contraction in the real world is far more than the amount of money being created.
It was not that the supply of money increased that broke Bretton Woods, it was the fact that the money left the domestic economy and then foreign holders tried to redeem it. Increasing the money supply domestically where it could not be redeemed for gold would have had no impact upon Bretton Woods. It was the fixing of gold to dollars under Bretton Woods and then the exportation of dollars to pay for the military expansion that broke the back of Bretton Woods.
So at the Solution Conference, we will look at critical issues and are there solutions from history that worked. We FIRST must understand the problem for if we cannot grasp the driving mechanism, we stand zero chance of coming up with a Solution to save our children from what will be a far more darker world of authoritarianism.
It is one thing to survive and make money. But what if your gold coins can buy nothing in a land totally controlled by government where any wealth is hunted and taken over your dead body as Stalin did to the Russian people?
The World Economic Conference will be about trading in what. The Solution Conference is about saving our future. We have to have Plan B.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Julius Caesar & Debt Crisis

Julius Caesar & Debt Crisis – Negative Interest Rates?

The Debt Crisis of 49BC that set off a Civil War I have written about in detail. Much of what the public was led to believe centered around politics and Cicero casting Julius Caesar as a power-hungry dictator. Anything but that image was correct. Cicero was on the wrong side and I collected all the contemporary writers to demonstrate it was all about debt once again. The people cheered Caesar as he crossed the Rubicon and the Oligarchy (Senators) fled Rome to Asia. Now if Caesar was the bad guy, why did they flee and people cheer Caesar? Strange that they would even name the Cato Institute after one of the most notorious anti-Republican/Democratic corrupt politicians of all time – thanks to propaganda.

Caesar was the only person in history to solve a debt crisis amicably. He forgave all interest and required whatever interest had been paid must be applied to the principle loan. He then also appointed a board who reappraised the value of the property to when the loan was given. So none of this stuff where you borrowed $500,000 for a house, it collapses to $200,000, and then the lender demands you pay the full $500,000 plus interest. Caesar realized that the value of money fluctuated – a brilliant observation. The purchasing power has risen and fallen with the economy even when money was gold and silver coins. The gold promoters have misled people to think that all our trouble is tied to paper money. Sorry, money rises and falls for it has historically been on the opposite side of wages and assets from the beginning of time.
In the subsequent Debt Crisis of 33AD under the Emperor Tiberius, he too relied upon the solution of Julius Caesar. He suspended all interest payments for 3 years. He engaged in quantitative easing for there was a banking collapse, crazy laws that tried to stimulate the Italian economy, which totally backfired, and no choice but to increase the money supply as deflation swept the Empire.
So when it comes to financial crisis, we NEVER seem to ask today has anyone ever tried this or that and we never ask the question – Did it work? We never learn from history and it seem the majority find it boring assuming they just know better so why bother. Those of us who do see patterns within history, are condemned to what others repeat it time and again.

Monday, February 23, 2015

Fundamentals & Fractals

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; Your piece on fundamental analysis is fascinating. The more I thought about it the more I saw the light. This is why the gold promoters hate you so much. They lure people in with total bullshit from manipulations, paper gold, missing gold Fort Knox, and how Shanghai would end paper gold in New York. Then some ask for donation to investigate manipulators that only sell the market. They are the ultimate manipulators. They are either sublimely stupid or crafty con-artists selling to unsuspecting people a land of fiat and dreams. The saying that the trend is your friend makes sense. People will interpret whatever news based upon the trend in motion. Supply and Demand depend entirely upon the trend. Am I correct in that conclusion?
Thank you for being the lone voice of reason
ANSWER: Yes, you are correct. Just because you increase the supply of anything does not mean that prices will decline be it a commodity, stock, bond, or money. If demand rises more rapidly, as it typically does compared to supply, prices will rise and that becomes the trend. Because prices then rise, this stimulates ultimately the expansion in supply.The two are offset and do not peak or bottom together. They are like pistons in a combustion engine working together but not simultaneously in the same direction.
Illustrated above, the rally in stocks going into 1929 unfolded (1) because of capital inflows, and (2) the supply of stock was insufficient to meet demand. You can see that only toward the end of the cycle the supply of new offerings increased rapidly and exceeded demand.
You saw gold miners expand only when price rose. This accounts for then over-supply at the top. As the price collapses, mines shut down becoming that contraction in supply that then sets the stage for the next rally.
There is so much hidden order within the system it is mind numbing. If we take the 8.6 frequency and look at the fractal structure, 43.0769 years from 1932 low brings us nearly to the 1966 high and 86.1538 years added to 1929 brings us to this target in 2015. There is an order to everything as well as a time and place. There is nothing which is purely random. No matter what, a pattern and cycle will always surface. The layer of order are incredibly deep like an union – we just keep peeling each layer back to discover another remarkable hidden order.

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Order exists in Chaos

Trading – Close v Intraday

QUESTION: There is a directional change the week of 2/23 followed by a turning point the week of 3/2.  Does that mean that the actual high close may come the week of 2/23 but the inter week high may come the week of 3/2?  Thanks in advance for your answer.
DJFOR-W 11-8-2014
DJFOR-W 7-8-2014
ANSWER: The Directional Change can be by itself a very fascinating tool. The directional change can at times be the beginning of a breakout to a new trading level as was the case for the week of 11/02/2014 in the Dow. This was confirming that the Dow would take off to a new plateau in price movement.

Yet at other times, Directional Changes can mark the high or low and the culmination of a trend as was the case for the weeks of 07/14/2014 and 12/22/2014. The Directional Change for the week of 07/14 was followed by a major turning point 2 weeks later both on the top composite and the long-term, which produced the spike low. We see the same type of pattern where the Directional Change of 12/22 was preceded by the major turning point for 12/08 which was also the key spike low.

The week of 01/19/2015 produced the highest closing for that reaction with the intraday high the week before. Then the Dow fell into the intraday low two weeks later.


The turning points are based generally on the intraday event. We will be adding the turning points on a closing basis to help break out all three dimensions to this complex movement. As illustrated here, sometimes the highest closing and the intraday can be as much as 4 units of time apart in separation. So that applies on a fractal basis from daily to yearly level.
The interesting demonstration here is that (1) this is not my personal opinion, and (2) it illustrates that there is a hidden order within what appears to be chaos. Here is the output of our Chaos Modeling for the Dow Jones. This clearly illustrates that there are trading plateaus which exist where the market will trade and then breakout to a new plateau. This is taking the daily data of the Dow Jones Industrials from 1918 up until 1991.
The key here is this plot represents absolute PROOF that there is order behind the appearance of chaos.
How can we even predict a turning point unless there is hidden order behind the false image of chaos. What is taught in university economic classes is dead wrong. We cannot manipulate anything be it markets, society, or politics. Not even absolute power delusions as the communists possessed, could prevent the hidden order from collapsing the best efforts of man who has the audacity to think he can alter the laws that government everything. This means something very profound. NO POLITICIAN can run for office promising to change anything for they cannot alter the trend of the entire world.
We either learn to live within the system, or we go down in flames each and every time. This is why I totally disagree with the people who claim gold is manipulated. They are fools who cannot see that the system is functioning as a weather. Three warming summers does not mean man has altered the entire weather system into Global Warming. The sheer arrogance of assuming such powers is to assume we are God. Mankind is simply way too corrupt to ever run anything according to plan. When communism fell, leaders were living in luxury behind walled compounds. Human Nature is nature. It cannot be altered. The same as in a relationship. If you try to change the person, it will end. You either accept that person for what they are or forget get. Society is the very same way. You cannot change Human Nature be it an individual or society.
The absolute proof is in this very chart. Order exists behind the appearance of Chaos that fools cannot see precisely in Lorenz’s plot of the weather system which also proves there is not Global Warming.
This will be added to the user interface for Phase II of bringing Socrates online.
BTW, we can still use programmers who can think out of the box, code in Visual Studio, and are flexible to move.

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Europe bubble before US bubble- just like 1929

Are we headed into a European Equity Bubble?

Our Energy models are warning that the European markets are getting overdone. We have to pay very close attention to Europe for the share markets may not advance and this could send even more capital fleeing to the USA.
DAXFOR-W 2-17-2015
 Everyone has been buying the bunds and the Dax inside Europe assuming that when the Euro cracks the will get Dmarks. But Merkel is not ready to dump the Euro. In fact, it may be over her dead body. She believes that Germany needs to Euro to export to the rest of Europe. The fact that her austerity is killing Europe she does not see as the issue. So there is no way to make her blink. The only way to do that will be to sell Germany and buy the dollar assets. Caution is the word. We may see a different pattern unfold entirely.
DM-STK26 (2)

During the last Sovereign Debt Crisis, Europe all peaked in advance of the USA. We are likely to see the same outcome initially this time.