QUESTION: Martin; I read with much interest your latest post that appears to be very bullish on the US share market. On 10/14/14 you posted the following:
” If we were to make new lows and fall to test the 15900-16000 level this week, then a rally back into November 3rd week is possible with a turn back down into January. That would be the shifting of the cycle warning we are dealing with a cycle inversion that would extend the high into 2017-2018. That would be VERY VERY VERY bearish for government.”
It looks like the market has done exactly as you forecast at that time. With your recent bullish post are you now thinking that this isn’t a cycle inversion and that the market will not turn back down next week into January?
Thank you, I’m a big fan of your work!
REPLY: We came within just a hair’s width of achieving a Sling-Shot Move to the upside. This is how markets actually propel themselves back and forth. They are like a pendulum. The energy spent in one direction becomes exhausted and that then is transformed into the energy to send the market cascading in the opposite direction – short cover or panic selling. We have sophisticated models that measure this flow of energy.
Our energy models on the Dow confirm that we did not achieve the Sling Shot Move. The energy reading for October came in still at a positive 7100 points, which was down from September 7300 point level (This means there is 7100 points worth of buying above equilibrium). The measurement of energy is based upon highly complex math. All the energy that was created to the negative during the Crash 2007-2009, was completely reversed within just 7 months. This confirmed that NEW HIGHS would be seen as the ECM turned back to the upside 2011-2015. Barron’s reported that forecast with a bit of bewilderment to say the least. Most could not believe that forecast. But this energy model the day of the low in the 1987 Crash, allowed us to forecast the low would hold and NEW highs would be made going into 1989. That forecast was also correct and marked the Japanese bubble. This not OPINION. This is simple hard-line forecasting.
It is still possible to see a weaker version of a Sling Shot Move, but to a lessor degree meaning it is extended in time. This means we may still see high going into 2015.75 and an extension into 2017-2018 on top of it as capital continues to shift from the Public to the Private Sectors. However, now January becomes critical. If we consolidate into January, then we will see the market turn up into March. If we see a high in March with a low into the ECM 2015.75, then we may yet see that Sling Shot Move into 2017 with the mid 40,000 target. It certainly appears that the market is extending time. A high in 2015.75 should be blasting its way now. Consolidating will warn of extending this entire move because of a very serious Bond Bubble and the Big Bang in the Sovereign Debt Crisis.
We still see the two primary targets for highs on this run in the 26,000 area followed by 43,000 area. The latter would have been aSling Shot Move now for a high in 2015.75. We are still in a position to see that level but it would appear more-likely-than-not to be the 2017-2018 time period.
This is a question of TIME more so than price. Keep in mind that the amount of capital contained in the bond markets is at least 3 times that in equities. If we see the Bond Bubble in 2015.75, then the capital pouring out of bonds will be like the 1929 Stock Market Crash. That money will then flow outward. This is when we will see the greatest potential for a rise in equity and YES we should see the turn in all tangibles including gold.
Looking at the timing array, volatility will start to rise from here on out. November is an important shift in trend. So far, the wild swings have come on time. We warned the markets would be quiet until September 2014. That so far has been spot on.
The week of November 3rd was a key target in many markets. This is where we will see if we back off or blast out. We may see a new high on Monday intraday, but a lower closing will warn that we may now back off and retest support.
There is resistance just overhead in the 17712-17725 area. A lower closing on Monday will signal a retest of support.
Yes, this is looking to “be VERY VERY VERY bearish for government.” As nuts as our forecast seemed back in 1985 that we would see the long bond at the 150 area, that target has been accomplished and on time.
This is the Bond Bubble we have been warning about all these years with Big Bang coming into focus for 2015.75. The slide from our 1998 World Economic Conference projected the sequence of events necessary to lead us to Big Bang. So far, everything has unfolded precisely as the computer had forecast. All that is left now is the home stretch to Debt Day.
The worst for the Sovereign Debt Crisis seems to be first shaping up in Europe. Here we have new highs but with declining energy. The divergence warns that we are in a MAJOR topping pattern.
Everything is correlating so far on time. We have the metals crashing shaking the tree to get rid of all the perpetual bulls. They just have to be devastated before you can move in the opposite direction. This is just how markets move. The stock market advance has been with historic lows in retail participation. This sets the stage for the skeptics to rush back and buy the highs. The average person buys or sells based only when they see confirmation. This is what leads to buying highs and selling lows. The rally will come when the fresh crowd all start to buy once again. That becomes the question as to how high is high. It is starting look like the 43,000 number more so than just the 26,000 level. We need more price action to confirm that outcome.