Thursday, December 15, 2016

Strongest uptick in the War Cycle co-inciding with the end of the sixth wave in the Economic Confidence Model both on the 51.6 year level as well as the 309.6 year fractal level

Obama is Deliberately Trying to Upset the Election that never Ends


White House press secretary Josh Earnest has made constant repeated jabs at president-elect Trump and his team during press briefings. He even went as far to say this week that Trump knowingly benefited from Russian hacking into computer systems of the Democratic National Committee and the Clinton campaign. Unbelievable! Let’s put this in perspective.
If someone is robbing your house, they are loading everything into a van, you pull in your driveway and catch them. Should they be allowed to keep what they stole because they would have gotten away had you arrived 3 minutes later and they would not have been caught?
This is the amazing argument of the Democrats. They are crying that Putin hacked the DNC and exposed to the world that they were corrupt, and Hillary interfered with the Republican primary to ensure Trump would become the candidate, then unleashed the press on him to defeat him, but all that came out from the emails exposed from the DNC. That just backfired so it’s Trump’s fault and Hillary should be made president because she would not have been caught but for Putin? Stunning logic.
So in other words, they would have succeeded in manipulating the entire election process and voters but for the release of the DNC files. This is like saying the thief should get to keep all your stuff because he would have gotten away with it if you were 3 minutes late.
This is the MOST outrageous argument I have ever heard in my life. We have Podesta, Pelosi, Whoopie and Behar along with the press trying to shove this down our throats. I would understand if they said Putin hacked the voting machines, but even Obama has come out and said that did not happen. His Administration plainly said“We stand behind our election results, which accurately reflect the will of the American people.”
So if the votes were not hacked, only the DNC files, then where is there ANY grounds to tell electors to vote for Hillary and overturn the election? Who is this patriotic and not fraud? The DNC files showed the Democrats were corrupt. So it’s not somehow fair that the people learned this was the truth?

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sixth-wave-ecm-2032

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I just do not see the logic here. The fact that the Press is not questioning this further proves they are still in the conspiracy against Trump to shove Marxism down our throats. This is dangerously approaching fighting words. There would be an uprising no doubt.
Sixth-WaveECM
But assuming this fraud fails on Monday, they will still not give up. We are looking at the real peak in government and I fear this is the strongest uptick in the War Cycle coinciding with the end of the sixth wave in the Economic Confidence Model both on the 51.6 year level as well as the 309.6 year fractal level. This is how empires crumble.
It is starting to look like we all join together and bring some rocks. We dump them in the Caribbean and start our own country. No Marxism allowed.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

23k level- that is what we have to exceed to get the Phase Transition to 40k.


Dow For Wed December 14, 2016

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We are pushing up against the next resistance level. We need to close above 19,970 to imply we will break through the 20k level. It does not yet appear to be ready to burst through the 21K level. Nevertheless, the next main target is still in the 23k level. That is what we have to exceed to get the Phase Transition to 40k.

THE CYCLE OF ASSASSINATION & WAR BOTTOMED IN 2014

War-Cycle-2014
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; you previously wrote that if Trump were elected he might be assassinated. Do you still see that as a potential?
ANSWER: Absolutely. There is an 11-year average cycle for attempts to assassinate the president. Here is the list below:
assassinations
The assassination cycle actually bottomed in 2014 with the Cycle of War. This means we are on an uptrend that may be the strongest uptrend in U.S. history. We have to understand that there will be an uptick in the anarchist philosophy that rose side-by-side with Marxism. There will be a VERY BIG risk that attempts on Trump will take place. It is possible they could even succeed and this would clearly fuel the civil unrest by pitting left against right in violent confrontations. This cycle may not peak until 2022-2024.

India’s Gold Confiscation & Turkey’s War on Currency

India’s Gold Confiscation & Turkey’s War on Currency


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QUESTION: Marty; You have been emphasizing not to buy gold bullion but US gold coins such as the $20. You have said that the last time they confiscated gold coin collections were exempt. With the drastic action in India, and the war on currency in Turkey, is this why you have said stocks and collectibles are a safer bet?
ANSWER:There are no safe bets. However, we are in the collapse of socialism. The left is always the most dangerous because they see themselves as victims. Narendra Damodardas Modi is proving to be a very dangerous radical who is extremely misguided. His demonetization of the currency was carried out without even asking the Reserve Bank. His BJP party advocates social conservatism and a foreign policy centered on nationalist principles. Generally, Modi has focused on a largely neoliberal economic policy prioritizing globalization and economic growth over social welfare. In sum, he is subjugating the people to his goal of globalization.
China and Russia saw their revolutions from the left led by the youth. India is trying to eradicate the underground economy. They first eliminated cash, which is preventing small businesses from paying employees. Unemployment will now soar. They are now attacking gold and this is all about creating a forced above ground economy so it can be regulated and taxed. People are reduced to using rice for money.
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Turkey is doing the same thing. Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan has begun his war on foreign currency because the Turkish lira is being devastated in international markets. His dream of recreating the Ottoman Empire will fail. He has lost the confidence of the people as well as the world. He is saying anyone who has $1 bills is a traitor. He is telling the population to convert their foreign currency to Turkish lira out of patriotism.

A rate hike in USA will send the rupee down and that will be feeding inflation

Lobbying Moves into High Gear Against Fed Rate Hike

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The lobbying is off and running is super-high gear to stop the Fed from raising rates once again. Governments all over the world have a very myopic view and focused only on the next quarter, or the next election. The Reserve Bank of India also fears that the US Fed’s impending interest rise would affect the external value of the rupee. Again the IMF behind the curtain is on its needs. Any depreciation of the rupee as a result of capital outflows would only worsen the balance of payments for India and expose the insane policies of Modi who did not even consult the RBI before demonetizing the currency.
Anyone with half a brain in economics knows that the worst thin you can do to create a depression is cause the velocity of money to decline. If people hoard and do not spend, the economy implodes. Modi is trying to end the cash economy, but he has ensured unemployment will now soar because small businesses cannot pay their people.Expect at least another 400,000 people to lose their jobs and people are forced to use rice as money.
Additionally, a rate hike in USA will send the rupee down and that will be feeding inflation due to rise in prices of imported commodities. Inflationary expectations are real keeping food prices high posing a threat to domestic price stability and external value of rupee. The RBI declined to lower rates looking at the prospects that the USA may raise rates so high rates are necessary to try to stem the outflow of capital.

Friday, December 9, 2016

US 30-Year Bonds — the Party Is Over




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On July 11, 2016, the 30-year bond peaked on the nearest futures at 177110. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 2.088%, and on that day, the Swiss government actually found some real suckers to buy 50-year bonds at negative yields out to 2076. The buyers will not be around to experience the official default, so why would they really care. This was the end of the bond bubble, and despite all the banter and opinions, this is a major, major, major peak in government. There is NOWHERE to go but down from here on out. If you own any bond fund, you better get out. This is a real game changer, and of course, every bond fund manager will tell you the stock market will crash so buy bonds.
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The yield on the 30-year bonds peaked in 1981 with the precise high in the Economic Confidence Model. This was a perfect 35-year decline (the gap on the chart is when they stopped issuing 30-year bonds). The 2015 closing was 15340. We closed yesterday at 151060. What is the significance of this? A lower closing for 2016 after making a new intraday high will technically be the kiss of death.
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Here is the yearly chart of the 30-year using our recreation and extending the data series back to the beginning of the United States. We have important technical resistance at 159610 and 157205 for the closing of 2016.
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Then 2016 was our target for the high and you can see this was also a direction change. We should expect to now see the bonds fall over the course of the next two years going into 2018. This will most likely be accompanied by a rising dollar and stock market. We can see that the volatility will start to really become pronounced in 2018.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Freedom of Movement – Four Aspects Under Assault




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We tend to assume that the freedom of movement is confined solely to migration and travel. There are four aspects to the freedom of movement, and migration or travel is only one. Yes, we warned that the Schengen Agreement would come to an end and the European refugee crisis has enabled that decline. We warned that this agreement, signed in 1985, was reaching the end and would begin to be “overthrown … come 2016.867 or November 12, 2016,” which was pi – 31.415 years from the signing.
There are four facets to the freedom of movement, which people far too often do not look at or understand their vital role in furthering the development of civilization. What truly made Rome a great enduring Empire was more than just might. Roman imperial history cannot ignore the freedom of movement in all four aspects: 1.) translation of texts, practices, and ideas; 2.) communication or the movement of written documents (i.e. today’s internet, phone calls, and texting); 3.) migration (i.e. officials, merchants, students, etc.); and 4.) the free movement of goods and services. The interrelationships among the four aspects of the freedom of movement are critical to the advancement of civilization.
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1.) The freedom of movement that enabled the translation of concepts and ideas has often been curtailed. For example, Lenin’s book “What is to be Done?” was first published in Germany during 1902, but it was outlawed for publication and distribution in Russia. For my own movie, “The Forecaster,” the distribution rights were bought in the United States and Switzerland, and then they refused to show it. In London, the film was not blocked, but the night of the debut the Evening Standard ran a story about a local headhunter named Martin Armstrong who said the bankers were worth every penny — but they used my picture. The freedom of translation is denied all the time and governments employ such tactics out of their self-interests.
Today, this would include books, movies, and also the internet. Turkey, for example, blocked Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube throughout Turkey on Friday, November 4, 2016. They also blocked the messaging services WhatsApp, Skype, and Instagram. The United States monitors everything through the NSA. Europe has also been looking at restricting the internet (eu-restrict-internet).
2.) The aspect of communication in the freedom of movement involves written documents, phone calls, and texting. The two major inventions that made the Roman empire soar were road and mail service. Yes, the Romans were really the inventors of the pony express. Letters have been discovered at Vindolanda in Britain at Hadrian’s Wall. Discoveries include formal letters of military issue, a letter from Octavius about supplies, the oldest letter from a woman, and even an invite to a birthday party back in Rome. Such letters could be delivered in just seven days.
Restricting this aspect of free movement changes the role of the state as well as relations between individuals and states. The implications of the assault on the free movement of communications are expanding under the pretense that they need to track what people are doing for taxes. This direct assault is altering relations in ways of organizing and thinking among individuals while hampering the expansion of global commerce.
3.) The third aspect of the freedom of movement is migrating one’s actual person. The saying, “All roads lead to Rome” was indicative of Rome’s vast road network that facilitated this free movement of people and trade. This restriction is expanding once again insofar as restrictions on carrying anything of value due to taxes. There are already visa requirements for many states that are typically used when there are concerns of migration.
4.) Finally, the fourth aspect of the freedom of movement is goods and services. The Roman Empire facilitated free trade, which was the foundation of the Roman economy. True, Donald Trump soared to the White House on the back of middle class America who were forgotten when they lost their jobs to foreign imports. Yes, you can put up barriers and tariffs to protect local jobs in every political state. However, this is a losing battle and it only looks at labor in the same manner as Karl Marx who took the position that nothing has value except for the labor to produce it. Keeping overvalued jobs may bring cheers from displaced workers, but it also imposes higher costs to the consumer.
Why are jobs leaving the country? It is not due exclusively to cheaper labor. That is total nonsense. It is the huge cost of regulation and taxes. The higher government raises taxes, the more overvalued the cost of labor. When I helped restructure companies looking to set up plants inside Europe, I had to weigh all costs. I placed manufacturing jobs in Britain because 1.) they had the skilled labor force, and 2.) they had 40% less in taxation from the corporate aspect compared to Germany and certainly France. It they needed the best tax deal without the skilled labor for manufacturing, I placed those companies in Ireland. It was not the cost of labor that was the deciding factor, but the taxation.
The United States is the most unstable country when it comes to taxes. You cannot set out a business plan for 25 years because the tax rates may change every four years. Companies leave the U.S., not because of the price of labor, but to have a safe and secure place to do business without the rules changing. Therefore, restricting the free movement of goods and services denies the ability of the economy to grow and adapt. Shall we ban computers because they can do your taxes faster and cheaper than an accountant? How many accountants were denied a job because of TurboTax?
If government restricts the freedom of movement with respect to people, trade, ideas, communication, and good and services, the world economy cannot possibly survive and this places us at risk of a frightening Dark Age all because governments fear losing power and are desperate to hunt money for confiscation. The first thing we must do to save all four aspects of the freedom of movement is to sharply reduce government’s invasion into every possible aspect of our lives.