Is World War III on the Horizon?

Posted Jan 6, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:  Martin, I have been following your blog for several months and have begun to start reading older posts because it is all amazing work. When looking at your war cycle with Russia that started in 2014 and supposedly cycles roughly 25 years, I noticed that correlates nicely with your ECM on Russia peaking around 2039. Coincidence? Is it becoming pretty clear World War 3 between east and west seems just over the horizon past 2032?
Thanks,
CC

ANSWER: Socialism is dying and in the process we are witnessing the rise in even domestic violence. In the United States, this hatred of Trump inspired by the Democrats has unleashed the destruction of the United States as we have known it. The United States will most likely cease to exist after 2034 and the same result will impact Russia by 2038. The crisis we face is that governments have made so many worthless promises that cannot be funded. When that takes place historically, the political states collapse internally. However, before that happens, they will turn to international war as a means to retain power and distract the people from the real economic crisis which is befalling civilization.

Capital Flow & War

Capital Flow Analysis

Posted Jan 5, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, at one of your WEC events during the nineties, if I remember correctly, you had said that your capital flow analysis revealed that the dollar rises during European and Middle Eastern wars and declines with North American wars. Could you refresh my memory on that?

I will see you in Shanghai. Never been there. Looks like it will be a very interesting conference.

Cheers;

KL

ANSWER: Nice to hear from you. Yes, your memory is not bad. Capital Flows are very distinct. Capital will always seek to move away from a war zone. In the case of Europe, it was the massive capital outflows from Europe which fled to the USA for both World War I and World War II. The USA was near-bankrupt in 1896 when JP Morgan came to the rescue. That is what made the USA the financial capital of the world. The same was true of the Suez Canal Crisis.

The Arab–Israeli War of 1948 broke out when five Arab nations invaded the territory in the former Palestinian mandate immediately following the announcement of the independence of the state of Israel on May 14, 1948. I hate to point out but 2020 will be 72 years from that event. This was followed by the major devaluations of currencies against the dollar – i.e. British pound. During the Cuba Missile Crisis (October 16-28, 1962), the currencies were fixed. The capital flows still managed to cause the British pound to rally from $2.78 to $2.81.

In the case of the Gulf War (August 2, 1990 – February 28, 1991), like Russia and the Lebanese War, our computer was picking up the capital flows which were indicating there was something brewing in the Middle East. You can easily see that the Euro began to spike upward in advance of the August 2, 1990, Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. In this case, it was the USA which was the invading force and thus was intimately involved in the war. Hence, the dollar declined compared to rising with World Wars I & II and other events not involving the US as the aggressor.

Even for 911, the US government used our study to identify the capital which was strategically moving in advance to profit from the attack. Later, the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (also known as the “9/11 Commission”) conceded that there was highly unusual trading activity in the airline stocks of American and United prior to September 11, but they tried to play it down as coincidence to discourage these further strategies. The capital flows clearly reflected sharp movement in advance which was international, not domestic.

It was our Capital Flow models that forecast the collapse of Russia back in 1998. We were able to forecast that event which turned into the Long-Term Capital Management crisis because the “club” was all on the same trade – buying Russian bonds expecting the IMF to always bail out Russia so it was a “guaranteed trade” and they ignored risk. That led to a massive liquidity crisis where they began selling assets everywhere to raise money to cover losses in Russian bonds they could not sell.

I have told the story at various WEC events how I stumbled upon this relationship. We had a client back in the 1980s which was a major bank in Lebanon. They found a ledger with the price quotes each day of the Lebanese pound back into the mid 19th century. They asked if we could create a model on their currency. We fed in all the data and the computer came back and forecast that Lebanon would fall apart in 8 days. I thought there was something wrong. I told the client what the computer forecast and they very calmly asked, what currency would be best? I was stunned. They obviously knew something was brewing. The computer was correct to the very day.

Then a Saudi client was one of the biggest shipping companies with very high political connections. He called and said that Iran would begin attacking shipping in the Gulf and asked what gold would do?

I began to realize that people with inside information moved money in advance of geopolitical events some to profit, and others to avoid losses. This is what the computer picks up. It does not identify the person.

43rd anniversary of the seizing of the American embassy by Iran - November 4, 2022.

Iran v US a 40 Year Proxy War of Religious Hatred

Posted Jan 5, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Iran is not simply a military threat, it has been at the top of the list of cyber-terrorism. Iran has cyber troops that have long been waging a cyberwar and they are most definitely among the world’s most capable and aggressive cyber operatives. There was even talk behind the curtain that the real cyber-attacked during the US 2016 election was Iran redirecting their hacks through Ukraine – not Russia.  They are very capable of disrupting banking, hacking oil companies, even they even covertly attempted to take control of a dam to create the appearance of a natural disaster. So far, Iran has stopped short of launching any major cyberattacks preferring to hold back for the USA would know where those attacks were originating.

The attack on Soleimani was a dramatic shift for an administration. Soleimani was frequently traveling to Iraq and Syria to coordinate strategic attacks on Americans in the past. An Iranian supported rocket attack killed an America contractor and this was followed by the US drone attack which claimed the lives of 27 militia members. It was Iran’s support which led to the attack on the American Embassy in Baghdad which is believed to have been ordered by Soleimani who has been traveling freely and coordinating attacks on Americans outside of Iran.

Trump warned on Twitter: “Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.” Mr. Trump added: “The USA wants no more threats!” We should pay attention to November 4, 2022. That will be the 43rd anniversary of the seizing of the American embassy by Iran.

The Iranian leadership will not be deterred. This is a matter of pride. It does not matter what Trump warns. They will take action regardless of the costs. They will pick their time. Otherwise, the leadership will appear to be weak.

The War Cycle on Iran comes into play 2021.29

Iran & the Cycle of War

Posted Jan 3, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; you had forecast that the future war in the Middle East would start to escalate in 2020 with the ECM turn and possibly erupt by 2021. It seems Socrates got that one right after killing Soleimani, but it is about two weeks ahead of schedule. If I remember, you said this was festering between Sunni and Shite and the leader would be Iran. Do you have any update on that?

Thank you;

GC

ANSWER: The first Iran Revolution was February 1921, when the military commander Reza Khan seized power. The War Cycle on Iran comes into play 2021.29. I will be doing an update to the cycles of war and incorporate those issues from the 2015 Cycle of War which was on the Middle East. The killing of Soleimani is probably the precursor to the turn in the ECM which is due January 18, 2020. This should contribute to the inflationary cycle ahead.

France cannot maintain the level of social benefits without EU

The BS of Climate Change from Polar Bears to Taxes

osted Dec 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have worked in the Arctic Circle. They always show polar bears on ice but what they fail to tell the public is that they normally spend time on land in summer when sea ice declines and most pregnant polar bears give birth and make their dens near the coast not on ice in the open sea.  They are excellent swimmers and will swim long distances. The photo they used to start global warming makes them appear to be clinging to ice because they cannot swim and that is where they live exclusively. This is just another part of the propaganda.

It is rare to find someone these days willing to say the truth.

HN

REPLY: Someone sent in this Facebook link that lists the timeline of climate scares. It is amazing how these people hate society so much that they have lied about everything to try to send us back to the pre-Industrial Revolution. They are totally dishonest about what their objectives truly are and they conspire together to destroy our civilization.

They have succeeded in convincing Europe to take drastic action on “climate change,” but perhaps because the politicians already KNOW that their social system is collapsing and they will be unable to sustain it even with the highest taxation on the planet.

Macron of France is pushing hard to Federalize Europe because he knows full well that France cannot maintain the level of social benefits and still keep its spending in line with the European treaty. His agenda is to federalize Europe and use climate change as a cover for the failing socialism he faces. By pushing France to surrender its total sovereignty to Brussels, the cuts to French benefits will then not be his, but Brussels. That ploy will simply not work. Nonetheless, he has been trying to use climate change to reduce social benefits 

When I lived in Switzerland for a few months a few years ago working on a project, the same Starbucks drink in Zug was $10 compared to $5 in the USA. The degree of hidden taxes through the VAT system combined with income taxes that are 20-30% higher than in the USA means there is just no room to raise taxes in a normal fashion. Hence, politicians need global warming as an excuse to raise taxes. That is what began the Yellow Vest Movement in France — the added fuel tax to save the planet. We saw the same excuse when Canada placed a $1,000 tax per home to save the planet when the money just goes into the general coffer and does not even fund a pretend strategy to save the planet.

Climate change has become the battle cry for governments to simply raise taxes and the lies will only fuel civil unrest.

Trump may not be in office after 2022

Impeachment Coup to Overthrow Trump

Posted Dec 24, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

Video Player

00:00

01:16

It has been obvious that the Intelligence community has tried to both prevent Trump from being elected and to overthrow his presidency. This Impeachment has turned into an outright coup. Here we have Joe Biden publicly admitting he withheld money UNLESS Ukraine fired the prosecutor who was investigating the company that hired his son to gain influence in Washington. If this impeachment against Trump is valid at all on the basis he “attempted” to withhold money from Ukraine unless they investigated what Biden did and here we have Biden admitting that he did withhold money, then we have to call into question what is really going on.

It appears that the Democrats have joined hands with the Intelligence community to actually overthrow Trump. CNN has joined this conspiracy and is claiming now to be tracking the lies of Trump without documentation to support their headlines. Why has the country come to this? Clearly, this is an all out coup and at the expense of dividing the country so profoundly, it is not hard to see how and why the United States will now separate and we may not even last until 2032. Even if they succeed in overthrowing Trump, the Republicans will do the same to any Democrat. Government has ceased to function – this is now just a grudge match.

The Democrats know that the socialist system is collapsing. They can smell it in the air. Even if the Democrats, CNN, and the Intelligence Community succeed in overthrowing Trump, sources say the objective is to (1) raise income taxes to 75% with the tax on Billionaires to be back to 90%, and (2) they want to go to war in the Middle East against Russia. Those in the intelligence community hate Russians and want to use their toys at last to wage war.

The more I talk to sources, the more I begin to see that the computer will be correct again, which I have tried personally to fight against. It is the reason I wrote this book on Manipulating the World Economy in hopes of perhaps changing the system.

The British elections came out in line with the computer projections with the Labour (socialists) coming in at the lowest level back to the 1930s. Ideally, Trump should win and the Democrats will eventually split themselves. However, he may not be in office after 2022. The computer is showing some sort of shift at that time, which raises concern about a staged assassination or a faked  death by heart attack. We certainly do not seem to be headed back to government as it used to be.

This toxic political state of the United States is going to get far worse. The Democrats are simply fueling hatred and dividing the country for what seems to be just revenge for their own failures in economic policy. There is no winner here. Even if the Democrats gained control of the Senate and the White House imposing Marxism full boat, they would be unleashing death and destruction with civil war.

There have been hundreds of millions of people who have been killed fighting against Marxism. All the wars combined starting with World War I have resulted in a tiny fraction of deaths compared to the war against Marxism (i.e., China, Russia, South America). Not even religion stacks up against the war against Marxism for causing the number of deaths. I am thankful I am not 25. But I lament for my posterity whose future will never be what I experienced.

Warfare & Killer Robots That Can Change Everything

Posted Dec 20, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

It has been reported that China is selling its killer robots to the Middle East. These things will simply kill every human on the battlefield. This is clearly changing the face of warfare and the serious concern is that these things will one day be deployed in civil unrest situations. If we have machines that enforce laws or replace soldiers in battle, this is actually the greatest wish-list governments have had for centuries. The power of any government rests upon its military to back it. Make no mistake about it, the United States has also staged exercises using the military to launch an assault on American cities. Even the EU has been conducting military/police exercises in case of civil war breaks out inside Europe.

I have written many times that the playbook on using the military to against civilians to protect the government goes back to the Nika Riots of 532 AD. There were two rival political factions in the empire, the Blues and the Greens, who started a riot in January 532 during a chariot race in the hippodrome. The riots stemmed from many grievances, and the people set fire to many public buildings. They even proclaimed a new emperor, Hypatius. Unable to control the mob, Emperor Justinian and his officials prepared to flee. His wife, Theodora, spoke out against fleeing the capital. She took charge and ordered the loyal troops led by two reliable foreign officers, Belisarius and Mundus, to attack the demonstrators in the hippodrome. Troops inside Constantinople refused to attack their own people. The key was to use troops who were not local for they would defend the government. The lesson is you cannot use local troops who may not kill people they know.

These new killer robots are the ultimate solution. This is how the government put down the Nika Riots and it remains the classic means to maintain power when confronted by civil unrest