Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Gold Turning Down


GCNYNF-D 4-1-2014

I have stated NUMEROUS times that gold is neither the hedge against inflation nor does it rise all alone during hyperinflation when everything rises. 
The difference between gold and other investments such as real estate and stocks lies in its MOVABILITY
1. During hyperinflation, EVERYTHING rises so long as the nation survives aside from the government. 
2. If the nation is being invaded or you have the confiscation of all wealth as was the case during the Russian Revolution, then tangible assets collapse and only gold survives for it can be easily transported from one country to the next. 
3. If the government collapses but the country survives intact, even real estate rises as do all tangible assets. 
Our ONLY problem or wild-card right now is that the transportation of gold becomes impossible thanks to metal detectors. This introduces a whole new variable to gold being the historical MOVABLE asset class. This is the danger presented by the NSA – the impossibility to do anything for our survival.
The Gold Promoters as always got all lathered-up proclaiming the bull market is here. They never bother looking at the world around them and cannot get through their heads that there is a huge difference between analysis and self-promoting. It gets to be like politics. The far left like the EdShow will never say anything good about a Republican and the same is true on the extreme right. Between the two is reality.
We closed Friday below the Weekly Bearish at 1309 and now we are testing the next Weekly bearish at 1280. After that we show 1240 and thereafter new lows once again. The tree has to be shaken. Just as in the stock market, when we forecast that it was turning back in 2011 and NEW HIGHS would be seen, that seemed like a novel concept that Barron’s mentioned in passing. Nevertheless, all the way up the talking heads were talking it down. That is why it kept going because the MAJORITY must ALWAYS be wrong. That is the fuel that makes the markets move.
We see a low ideally forming temporarily as early as tomorrow. If gold bounces into a marginal high next week on the 9th, then lookout below thereafter. The 2014 Metals Report will be out shortly with the long-term forecasts.

Monday, March 31, 2014

Thailand on Brink of Civil War on the 41 Year Cycle

 



Thailand-Revolution

The Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra faces impeachment within a matter of weeks.

However, her supporters are reported planning to challenge any move to dismiss her by arming militias. This is right on schedule with the 41 year cycle in Revolution for Thailand. The democratic process seems to be declining. The last Thai Revolution was October 14, 1973. The popular uprising of known as the “October 14 Event”; or “Day of Great Sorrow”, was a watershed event in Thailand’s history. The uprising resulted in the end of the ruling military dictatorship and altered the Thai political system. Notably, it highlighted the growing influence of Thai university students in politics.

Previously, there was the Siamese Revolution of 1932 that was really a Siamese Coup d’état. The Revolution of 1932 was a crucial turning point in Thai history in the 20th century that was nearly bloodless transition on June 24, 1932. The political system of government in Siam was changed from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy similar to Britain. The revolution was brought about by a comparatively small group of military and civilians, who formed Siam’s first political party known as the Khana Ratsadon (Peoples’ Party). The revolution ended 150 years of absolutism under the Chakri Dynasty and almost 700 years of absolute rule of Kings over Thai history. The Revolution was a product of global historical change as well as social and political changes domestically. The revolution also resulted in the people of Siam being granted their first Constitution.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Gold - closing back below 1308.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend

Gold Bouncing off the 1390-1400 barrier




So far, gold has been unable to get through the first primary resistance 1390-1400 barrier. We pressed higher into this week making the high but then turned back down. Now the two levels forming are 1323 and 1425. A weekly closing back below 1308.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Major monthly resistance stands at 1555-1565 followed by 1617 for the next three months whereas support lies at 1315. a monthly closing below this area will signal new lows ahead. Only a monthly closing above 1617 will signal a breakout to the upside.

Thursday, March 13, 2014

China peaked in 2007 and is en route for its low in 2020 as is Russia


The number of people jumping with financial declines has been a universal trend. There were people jumping in Japan after the 1989 Crash. The jumpers in New York were mixed both from bankers to traders. There have even been women who jumped. This trend will continue longer than normal on this cycle and will most likely end in 2020.

The excessive bullishness we have seen from the gold promoters is identical to that of the stock promoters during the 1920s. When the market crash, they too tried to talk it up and conspiracy theories filled the air. So much so, one popular one was it had been a conspiracy to destroy the Republic Party by communists and socialists, keeping in mind there was the 1917 Russian Revolution and then the German Revolution of 1918. Marxism was becoming the new conspiracy behind everything That reached the ear of Herbert Hoover and in his memoirs he apologized for that rumor launched the Senate investigations that found nobody yet the investigation still gave birth to the SEC.

We are in a vortex of a very dark corner when it comes to economics, civil unrest, and war all converging at the same time. China peaked in 2007 and is en route for its low in 2020 as is Russia. This turns up the heat domestically where people lose money and want to seek retribution for their loss blaming others when it is their own emotions that get the best of them. The US as a whole will decline sharply after 2015.75 due to capital flows pouring in now that save it and people trying to get money out of banks and pension funds that need income or go bankrupt.

Nonetheless, the US banking sector also peaked in 2007 and its demise is waiting in 2020. The European banking sector is on life-support right now. When the electricity goes out, the breathing will cease. There is no saving Europe without major reform of Brussels who seems to have the scepter of power in their hand, and assume they need more to make it work while they ignore the rising unemployment among the youth that is staggering. The fact that half of the youth in France want to leave somehow is still not being noticed by the politicians or people who think the Euro’s rise is because it is a great hard currency backed by austerity – Ah, the US did that it was called the Great Depression.

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Capitalism (Freedom) has Never Truly Existed



Marxism is a Dead Idea But Capitalism (Freedom) has Never Truly Existed

InvisibleHand-DanielleThe Socialists argue that we actually have a free market economy called capitalism and that is the reason for the economic downturns. They assume we can create an economic flat-line they call socialism/communism. Anything that booms and busts they call capitalism. The real question is when have we EVER had free markets and Capitalism without someone trying to regulate and manipulate the opposite side – labor or capital?
During the very early emergence of society coming out of the dark ages when we were abandoning serfdom, for a brief shining moment after the Black Plague or Death of the 14th century, capitalism may have existed for less than a year. Other than that, both sides (labor & capital) have been trying to regulate and manipulate the other ever since so there really has never been a free market that socialists seem to hate so much.
Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was against the French Physiocrats who tried to reason that“wealth” was only agriculture and the blacksmith making products to sell to the farmer was a parasite living off of the wealth created by the farmer. Smith in his Wealth of Nations said that was wrong. Everyone combined through their individual productivity creates the wealth of the nation. Smith was proven correct with Japan rising to the second largest economy with a tiny landmass and hardly any natural resources. They became productive and wiped out the unions in the USA that were trying to rig the game no different from capital. Each side gains control for brief periods like democrats and republicans, yet neither can see that they need each other to exist.
The Black Death killed about 50% of the population in Europe that sparked a labor shortage which re-instituted wages. For a brief shinning moment real free markets existed. Labor rose in value naturally based upon demand. Then the manipulations all began.
The kings during the 14th century became greedy and began taxing wages or introduced the poll tax. As long as there was serfdom, people never paid taxes, only the “rich” landowners. This economic change of free labor (capitalism) produced the first tax rebellion in France and then England. The shortage in labor sent agricultural prices soaring. The landowners said this wasn’t fair that wages were rising and England passed legislation to reverse the free markets. In 1362, a petition was filed in the English House of Commons blaming the inflation on workers “who refuse to bear the burden of poverty patiently” to justify freezing wages.
TYLER

It was at this time that taxes rose causing hoarding of capital among labor and landowners reducing the VELOCITY of money. Ordinances now appeared prohibiting the exportation of precious metals as hoarding increased. Edward III issued the Statute of Labourers in 1351 that set a maximum rate of pay at pre-plague levels and required all able-bodied men to work. The Black Death created a very dynamic economic impact by increasing individual wealth, reducing the population creating a shortage of labor, and price inflation. This was the free markets at their best.
The change economically was felt throughout Europe. In Florence, there was the Revolt of the Ciompi in 1378 that was an insurrection involving the lower classes that seized the government and created the most dynamic democratic government that would ever exist in Florence. As government began taxing the people, rebellions became more commonplace.
We have NEVER actually experienced a period of pure free markets. Depending upon who was in control labor or capital, each side has sought to use the law to change the balance of power economically in their favor. Today, we have the excessive rise in taxes causing the producers to hoard their capital and not hire or expand businesses. This has led to unemployment in excess of 60% among the youth. It is not that one side is right and the other wrong. Both sides are wrong and cannot use the rule of law to try to create an economic advantage for themselves.
Therefore, it is hard to say what lies ahead but we are at a Rome Moment. Marxism will end for it includes everything that seeks to manipulate for the benefit of the so-called people that is really now government workers at the expense of the private sector. However, the living standards of the people in general have declined, not because of the “rich”, but because of the growing unproductive sector we call government.
The only possible way forward would be to eliminate taxes for thereby both sides would no longer have an economic advantage to control government. Politically, we need to end career politicians for this would put the people in a real position of overseeing the bureaucracy. Those terms should be no more than 1 year. Will this solve all the problems? NO! It will not even last forever for one side or the other will find a way to alter the power and seek to attack and exploit the other side with regulation and laws.
This is just the beginning. There is NEVER a permanent solution for there is a cycle at work as well. Capitalism (defined as real free market for both sides) has NEVER existed except for some very few brief periods until one side or the other begins to try to control the other for personal gain.


Marxism is a Dead Idea But Capitalism (Freedom) has Never Truly Existed

InvisibleHand-DanielleThe Socialists argue that we actually have a free market economy called capitalism and that is the reason for the economic downturns. They assume we can create an economic flat-line they call socialism/communism. Anything that booms and busts they call capitalism. The real question is when have we EVER had free markets and Capitalism without someone trying to regulate and manipulate the opposite side – labor or capital?
During the very early emergence of society coming out of the dark ages when we were abandoning serfdom, for a brief shining moment after the Black Plague or Death of the 14th century, capitalism may have existed for less than a year. Other than that, both sides (labor & capital) have been trying to regulate and manipulate the other ever since so there really has never been a free market that socialists seem to hate so much.
Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was against the French Physiocrats who tried to reason that“wealth” was only agriculture and the blacksmith making products to sell to the farmer was a parasite living off of the wealth created by the farmer. Smith in his Wealth of Nations said that was wrong. Everyone combined through their individual productivity creates the wealth of the nation. Smith was proven correct with Japan rising to the second largest economy with a tiny landmass and hardly any natural resources. They became productive and wiped out the unions in the USA that were trying to rig the game no different from capital. Each side gains control for brief periods like democrats and republicans, yet neither can see that they need each other to exist.
The Black Death killed about 50% of the population in Europe that sparked a labor shortage which re-instituted wages. For a brief shinning moment real free markets existed. Labor rose in value naturally based upon demand. Then the manipulations all began.
The kings during the 14th century became greedy and began taxing wages or introduced the poll tax. As long as there was serfdom, people never paid taxes, only the “rich” landowners. This economic change of free labor (capitalism) produced the first tax rebellion in France and then England. The shortage in labor sent agricultural prices soaring. The landowners said this wasn’t fair that wages were rising and England passed legislation to reverse the free markets. In 1362, a petition was filed in the English House of Commons blaming the inflation on workers “who refuse to bear the burden of poverty patiently” to justify freezing wages.
TYLER

It was at this time that taxes rose causing hoarding of capital among labor and landowners reducing the VELOCITY of money. Ordinances now appeared prohibiting the exportation of precious metals as hoarding increased. Edward III issued the Statute of Labourers in 1351 that set a maximum rate of pay at pre-plague levels and required all able-bodied men to work. The Black Death created a very dynamic economic impact by increasing individual wealth, reducing the population creating a shortage of labor, and price inflation. This was the free markets at their best.
The change economically was felt throughout Europe. In Florence, there was the Revolt of the Ciompi in 1378 that was an insurrection involving the lower classes that seized the government and created the most dynamic democratic government that would ever exist in Florence. As government began taxing the people, rebellions became more commonplace.
We have NEVER actually experienced a period of pure free markets. Depending upon who was in control labor or capital, each side has sought to use the law to change the balance of power economically in their favor. Today, we have the excessive rise in taxes causing the producers to hoard their capital and not hire or expand businesses. This has led to unemployment in excess of 60% among the youth. It is not that one side is right and the other wrong. Both sides are wrong and cannot use the rule of law to try to create an economic advantage for themselves.
Therefore, it is hard to say what lies ahead but we are at a Rome Moment. Marxism will end for it includes everything that seeks to manipulate for the benefit of the so-called people that is really now government workers at the expense of the private sector. However, the living standards of the people in general have declined, not because of the “rich”, but because of the growing unproductive sector we call government.
The only possible way forward would be to eliminate taxes for thereby both sides would no longer have an economic advantage to control government. Politically, we need to end career politicians for this would put the people in a real position of overseeing the bureaucracy. Those terms should be no more than 1 year. Will this solve all the problems? NO! It will not even last forever for one side or the other will find a way to alter the power and seek to attack and exploit the other side with regulation and laws.
This is just the beginning. There is NEVER a permanent solution for there is a cycle at work as well. Capitalism (defined as real free market for both sides) has NEVER existed except for some very few brief periods until one side or the other begins to try to control the other for personal gain.