Thursday, October 20, 2011

John Taylor


Washington, London, Zurich and Tokyo are all creating billions of their own currencies and casting

them into the financial world, and there is no sign this flood will be stopping soon. What happens to all

of this money? One would think this profligacy would lead to inflation. Certainly there are analyses that

Bernanke’s excess billions have driven up the equity markets and commodity prices, but the argument

is also persuasively made that none of this money has reached Main Street, or at least not much of it.

The recent data hint that bank lending has modestly increased, but most of this is directed toward the

strongest corporate and consumer borrowers. The small businessman and the bottom 95% of

consumers are out in the cold. Why hasn’t all this money given us the kind of inflation that Zimbabwe or

the Weimar Republic experienced?

The simple answer is because the banks have all the money. We poor mortals have gotten none of it,

and if we don’t have it we can’t spend it, creating the excess demand that would cause inflation.

Because excessive debt built up during

the good times must be paid back, investors are forced to sell assets and drive down financial markets.

The liquidation even hits 'safe' investments like gold. Until the debts are paid back or written off, the

economy must suffer through stagnant periods with no inflation. In the current political climate

“helicopter Ben” won’t be able to release his dollars until it is clear to all that the economy is back in

recession. However, this is a foregone conclusion as further austerity seems to be in America's future.

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