John Taylor
Because the European elite can not conceive of defeat, life in Europe will change dramatically in the coming years. Economic and psychological reality has already changed dramatically for a small percentage of euro-citizens, and most of those know – no matter how ordinary they might be – that the ground under their feet is unsteady and is likely to shift again. Financial and political reality will be deteriorating as well. Seventeen countries and thousands of political actors make it an adventure to forecast the twists and turns ahead, but several clear trends are already visible. The democratic process, not too strong in Europe at anytime, will give way to more and more authoritarian tendencies.
As the citizens see the benefits of the euro-process turning into liabilities, they will get more boisterous and obstreperous, demanding domestic responses to “foreign” euro-policies. It is hard to tell a Greek that Brussels demands that he loses his government job, when there are no other jobs in sight, and that the Troika has ordered that his property taxes are collected through his electric bill. It will be a cold and hungry winter in Athens. The local politicians must be fortified in their euro-ness by threats from Germany, France and Brussels, and as the pressures increase the commands will too. The strategy of the politicians is to kick the can, don’t let anyone give up, and pray that growth will reappear. If things don’t work out, the politicians know that they will lose their jobs and their reputations. As none of their strategies foster growth and a recession is coming, the debts will grow in relation to the underlying economies, so their prayers will go unanswered. Every year that this situation goes on the quality of life
will deteriorate for the average citizen, but it also means that the economic reality after the euro will be meaner.
No comments:
Post a Comment