I have been a loyal reader since your early writings from prison and greatly appreciate all you do for society and the “common man” at least those willing to learn. Thank You.
We (a couple of loyal followers comparing your analysis) are a little confused on your recent Jan 19th coverage on oil. You state: We follow the 2016 low support targets of $25 and $16.
You state in running what-if scenarios to try to forecast where the Yearly Bullish Reversal (buy signal) will be generated from either low of $25 or $16 it ends up with $40-$41.50 This seems like it would be a sell signal instead of a buy signal??????? since $40-$41.50 clearly becomes the major resistance moving forward. Could you please clarify because we do not understand?
Thank You for your time.
ANSWER:The Reversal System is always calculating the counter number to the move. In other words, the system will generate the Bullish Reversal from a low and that must be elected to signal at least a temporary low.
In this case, the current Yearly Bullish stands at $82. This break to new lows should bring in a lower number in the $49-$42 area. This would be interesting symmetry since the Yearly Bearish elected was $41.25.
That would be the major resistance. I have explained before that in 1998 the dollar/yen rallied to test the Yearly Bullish at $147. We were running out of time, so I sold against that number and then placed a stop just above. We did not get through that Yearly Bullish Reversal.
This would be no different. It is showing us that a reversal in trend would require a yearly closing say above $42 (in general) before you could say a bull market would emerge.