Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Euro- biggest turning point will be May and we have a Directional Change in April.

Le Pen in First Place So Far

Le Pen Marine
With the election coming up in France, Le Pen is praising Donald Trump for putting his people first. “The European Union has failed,” she declared. She vows to return control of France also back to the people. Le Pen promises to exit the EU, saying it has utterly failed, and place a strict limitation upon immigration to fight “Islamic fundamentalism.” She is being presented as a patriot. “I will return the voice of the people!” She also vows “to always think of the national interest.” Len Pen continued, “My promise is to restore France within five years.”
Le Pen’s program has listed 144 electoral promises and she has adopted Donald Trump’s position saying “France First” vowing to end “mass immigration,” take protectionist measures for the French economy, and within six months move for a referendum on the withdrawal of France from the EU (“Frexit”).
Le Pen argue that the promises of the euro have failed. The French want to be “free” again. She also vows to end the Schengen area, introduce a national currency, and lead France from the NATO commando structure. She has vowed a “zero-tolerance policy” against crime and terrorists. She will impose higher taxes for foreign workers and imports and will slash bureaucratic requirements for smaller enterprises following Trump. She realizes that Trump won because the vast majority of voters feel themselves to be the losers of globalization. The protests are coming from the youth who primarily are professional students who have not yet entered the real world.
The polls right now show Le Pen currently at 25% in first place. The first round of the presidential election will be on April 23rd. The pundits are saying that it is unlikely that she will be able to win the election on May 7th when she will face the independent presidential candidate Macron.
The conservative is Fran├žois Fillon. However, Fillon has been under a lot of pressure after a pseudo-employment affair with his wife who he paid €500,000 to be his assistant, but nobody can really verify she works. Since this scandal, behind the scenes the conservatives are searching for a “plan B.” The latest polls show he may be eliminated in the first round. This will benefit Le Pen tremendously. A video has emerged from 2007 where Fillon’s British wife Penelope admits, “I have never actually been his assistant or anything like that.” Plus, she is not French.
IBEUUS-M 2-6-2017
When we look at the euro monthly array, we can see that the biggest turning point will be May and we have a Directional Change in April. Clearly, the capital flows are already targeting the French election. We must respect that if Le Pen wins, the euro is most likely dead on arrival. The German election in the fall will be the final straw. A Le Pen win would really illustrate the silent majority’s battle with the left-wing socialists who do not subscribe to live and let live, but need to subjugate everyone else so they can have their perfect utopia — the bubble.
FrenchFranc-Y 1900-1998FrenchFranc-Y Array 1998
When we run our what-if models on the French franc, clearly we are entering a major turning point which is 2017-2018.
Le Pen’s main points:
  1. Referendum of EU Membership
  2. Restore French franc
  3. End Schengen area
  4. End Refugee migration
  5. Public contracts awarded only to French firms
  6. International trade agreements are to be canceled.
  7. The income tax for low-income earners is to be reduced by 10%
  8. Small business are to be relieved of their wage costs.
  9. The retirement age to be lowered to 60 from 62 years.
  10. Child benefit regardless of income
  11. Reduce gas and electricity costs by 5%
  12. Maintenance of the 35-hour week.
  13. Employers should pay a 10% tax on foreigners’ wages.
  14. Free education will be only for the French
  15. Illegal immigrants are to be deprived of free health care.
  16. Immigrants without papers have no chance of legal residence status.
  17. Asylum can only be applied for in French consulates abroad.
  18. French citizenship not to be based solely upon birth in France
  19. Increase domestic police by 15,000
  20. Build new prisons with space for 40,000 prisoners.
  21. Condemned foreigners are immediately deported
  22. All foreigners who are connected with Islamism under the supervision of the secret services.
  23. All radical mosques are to be closed.
  24. Withdrawal from the joint NATO.

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