The ECB & its Green Agenda

Posted Dec 20, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, what do you think about Legarde claiming the top priority of the ECB is climate protection?

DK

ANSWER: The proposition that the primary objective of the ECB should be climate protection is highly questionable even from a legal perspective. The European Treaties created the ECB with the primary function to ensure price stability. Interestingly, the statutory authority also states that the ECB must support the general economic policy of the European Union without prejudice to the objective of price stability. There is nothing legally in the authorization of the ECB to proclaim it will listen now to Al Gore and Jennifer Morgan of Greenpeace who are both manipulating this 16-year-old “person of the year.”

I do not see anything in the authorization of the ECB where it has the legal right or even the obligation to defend the climate. This seems to be a personal agenda, for Greenpeace succeeded in getting into Davos and influenced Europeans who have gone off the deep end. For the ECB to put climate protection as one of the central themes of EU policy is clearly without any legal authority no less precedent. Climate change is not the role of a central bank.

Supporting “green bonds” has been the worst possible investment. We have institutions asking if we could create a portfolio of green investments that do not lose money just so they can claim they are “investing” in green. Any venture into “green” investment is counter to the ECB directive to provide price stability. The ECB must not compromise the objective of price stability, but it is an impossible task to support a green agenda. It seems that the ECB is now interpreting that if the European Commission imposes strict climate policies which will raise the cost of everything and wipe out the German car industry by virtually outlawing the combustion engine. The ECB has considerable political freedom, and power, to enforce a green agenda upon the EU.

This certainly seems to be an agenda that will only further undermine the European economy going into 2032 and increase the drive for separatism.

Fed unsuccessful in maintaining control over short-term rates on a sustained basis

Why the Fed Is Not Lowering Rates

Posted Dec 12, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Thanks so much for your explanation of the Repo Crisis which is now self-evident that the Fed has reversed course and did not cut rates. You are always on the cutting edge and your contacts are revealed in your analysis.

PV

REPLY: The central bank has been in control of short-term rates, not long-term. The Quantitative Easing of 2008-2009 was all about reducing the supply of long-term debt in hopes of lowering long-term rates, which they hoped would revitalize the real estate market. Here, the Fed is dealing with its own perceived power. The mere fact that the Fed had to step into the repo market and continues to provide liquidity is an effort to prevent short-term rates from rising. It also reflects the reality that the Fed has lost control of interest rates. They will ultimately be unsuccessful in maintaining control over short-term rates on a sustained basis. We are entering a whole new dimension. This is not Quantitative Easing as so many immediately called it. They just lack the understanding of how the economy truly works both globally and domestically.

The Federal Reserve made no change to its target interest rate at its December meeting, expressly saying that the economy remains strong. They said that in fact the economy is so strong that few central bank officials currently saw any need to cut interest rates over the next 12 months. This is because the capital flows are still pointing into the USA while the rest of the global economy is showing major signs of stress. The Fed cannot lower rates when the pressures are for rates to rise due to risk factors nobody will talk about publicly.

This is simply where international analysis overpowers domestic. We advise internationally. You have a whole different set of criteria to watch. Domestic analysis is just reading the local headlines and trying to guess what the Fed will do next

Defaults on foreign denominated debt by now in Lebanon.

Rise in US Dollar Will Force Defaults in Third World

Posted Dec 13, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The countless analysts who keep preaching that the dollar will collapse have been singing the same song since 1971. They NEVER look outside the USA and simply preach how the US debt (over $20 trillion) will result in hyperinflation and the end of the US economy. They ignore the fact that the US is a tiny fraction of global sovereign debt. They also ignore the fact that there is already $17 trillion in negative yielding euro bonds out there.

I have been warning that the USA will be the last to fall. The stress on the world monetary system will be seen outside the USA. We have seen defaults on foreign denominated debt by now in Lebanon. This is just the beginning. We are looking at a contagion spreading in 2020 on a global scale.

Why the Fed Stopped Lowering Short-term Rates

Posted Dec 11, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The Repo Crisis is only Part II of this Mother of All Financial Crises. Where Quantitative Easing was buying in long-term debt to try to lower long-term interest rates and stimulate the economy, the Repo Crisis is entirely different for its objective is to prevent short-term rates from rising. The Fed did not lower rates today and hinted that rates would remain unchanged into 2020 BECAUSE the pressure is rising for short-term rates to rise. This is confirming that all central banks have LOST control of short-term rates.

We face something that has NEVER before been witnessed in economic history. I have written this report which will include an update next year because this is a critical issue that will dictate the fate of everything else. This is the Index to the Report

Greta & Mother Living Lavishly?

Posted Dec 11, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The latest rumor running around Europe is based on this photo of Greta Thunberg and her mother living above normal European standards of living, sitting in posh or elegant and stylishly luxurious chairs. Greta’s speeches appear to be written by Jennifer Morgan of Greenpeace. They had Greta further their Marxist agenda saying:

“Our biosphere is being sacrificed so that rich people in countries like mine can live in luxury. It is the sufferings of the many which pay for the luxuries of the few.”

Greta was an adviser to We Don’t Have Time and it was alleged to have been a covert partnership with Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project, 350.org. Ingmar Rentzhog’s We Don’t Have Time was alleged to have used Greta’s image to gain funds for his firm, according to Climate Change Dispatch. Greta’s family denied being aware that she would be used to raise money for Mr. Rentzhog’s organisation and is said to have cut her ties with that organization.

Greta’s travel to Alberta inflamed serious  passions from both sides of the climate change agenda. She appeared to have been accompanied by her parents. She claims her mother gave up her career because she had to fly often, which harmed the climate, but they had no problem hopping on a plane to Canada.

What is clear is that Al Gore and Jennifer Morgan of Greenpeace do collaborate together and it has been Morgan who accompanies Greta even to Davos. Some argue that Al Gore is taking care of Greta and her family through Greepeace. That remains speculation right now unless you can get a court to order Greta & her family’s financial records to see how they are earning a living when her mother quit her career to save the planet because she had to travel for work.

Swedish journalist Henrik Alexandersson also claimed that Miss Thunberg’s much-reported speech delivered at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poland in December 2018 was delivered to an empty room. Nobody has any photos to confirm or deny that allegation. It has been argued that Greta’s school strike coincided with the launch of a book about climate change written by her mother, who is the well known opera singer Malena Ernman, according to Swiss magazine Die Weltwoche.

“Fishing expeditions” of border guards

Hunt for Taxes & Illegally Searching Your Phone & Laptop at the Border

Posted Dec 11, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The US border guards have been illegally searching laptops and phones for anything that might lead to hidden money. A Federal Court in Boston has ruled warrantless searches of the phones and laptops of international travelers violates the Fourth Amendment. It is amazing that you would even have to take them to court to force them to honor the Fourth Amendment. The ruling came in a lawsuit filed by the American Civil Liberties Union and the Electronic Frontier Foundation on behalf of 11 travelers whose smartphones and laptops were searched without individualized suspicion of any wrong-doing. The ACLU described the searches as “fishing expeditions” where border guards must now demonstrate individualized suspicion of contraband before they can search a traveler’s electronic device

Regions will be split politically between left and right

Where to Go?

Posted Dec 10, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Mr Armstrong,
I have been a subscriber for several years and I appreciate your work. You mentioned that when the dust settles there will be pockets in the US that are safe. Can you elaborate where they will be? Also if your child was planing on majoring in finance in college next year, would you steer them away or have them specialize in something like forensics since there will be a mess to sort out? Or would you steer them to a different major or no college at all?

Thanks again for everything you do

BV

ANSWER: It is still too early to forecast which areas will be best specifically. In general, the major regions will be split politically between left and right. There will be stark differences politically between California v Texas and Florida for example. You certainly do not want to be in any state that is out of control with respect to taxes and police abuse. Most people would never guess, but the state that abuses the law the most is Iowa. The percentage of drivers who have been given speeding tickets is 23.2%. That is a stunning percentage of the population. Indeed, Iowa wrote 148,755 tickets in 2016, which was a lot given the population compared to 712,000 tickets written by New York.  Additional states where the percentage of people who have been given speeding tickets over 20% are Wisconsin (20.2%), Ohio (20.5%), Nebraska (20.8%), Wyoming (21.3%), South Carolina (22.7%), and North Dakota (23.1%).

We have states that have been funding themselves with traffic fines for all sorts of things. A friend’s wife was ticketed for looking at Google maps on her phone while at a red light. She went to court to prove she was not texting. The judge ruled for the state, as they are instructed to do, and fined her by saying she is not even allowed to look at he phone. So if she had a paper map, that would have been OK. So this is what we call legal persecution for monetary gain.