The Fall of the Dollar in 2028 ? USD fall Aug 25th, 2028. Final high for Dow in 2027-28. Final high for Dow in 2027-28

 The Fall of the Dollar in 2028 ? USD fall Aug 25th, 2028 ?

Final high for Dow in 2027-28. Final high for Dow in 2027-28

The British Pound & the FX Crisis

Posted Sep 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

REPLY: The problem with most people forecasting is they do it as “I think” and then try to pound their chest as if their reasoning is better than someone else. People try to criticize me when they disagree with what they assume is my personal “reasoning” when in fact I have said many times, Socrates has taught me, as well as all my clients worldwide.

You cannot forecast such things from a personal opinion perspective. It also requires centuries of data. Most people have no idea that the British Pound had ever reached $9.97 in 1864. The collapse of the British pound itself still going into 2026/2027. It’s like the gods are selecting the worst possible world leaders in human history.

Once the pound broke the uptrend line, even technically it was in trouble. Then the support was at 129 & 127. When that gave way, the free-fall began. Technically, the real support begins at the 89 level. This is not over. We will not see a straight decline into 2026/2027, but that is where this is headed. The ideal support will be at the 72 to 76 level by then. Breaking the 1985 low of $1.03 will then point to the 89 area.

Keep in mind, that all roads lead to the dollar because of the geopolitical mess world leaders have created in Ukraine, and even in Taiwan. They either want war or are living a dream and expect that Russia and China are afraid of the West and somehow they are all-powerful. There are no peacemakers anywhere! People who try to argue against me with their personal reasoning are fools. This is not me and my personal opinion. Nobody has ever beaten Socrates – and that includes me.

Schwab’s NWO will fail as did Marx. However, these people “think” that they can hide their sovereign default with war and win against both China and Russia to create this global one-world economy. There is no way this will work and the climate zealots are insane. They think that they can end fossil fuels and then come up with alternatives. They know damn well that what they are doing will cause the death of millions worldwide. They also want to reduce the population.

In the process, the rise in the dollar will kill US exports and start the economic decline in the USA as the rise in the dollar also did during the Great Depression. This will create deflation and the rising interest rates may make some people think that the Fed is achieving its goal, but we have also shortages which are the opposite of the Great Depression.

It was the sharp rise in the dollar that led to Protectionism because the politicians did not understand what was taking place. This rise in the dollar was also the reason Roosevelt confiscated gold and raise its value from $20 to $35 to devalue the dollar.

Thereafter, the US had a two-tier monetary system. Gold for international transactions and silver domestically precisely as what took place back in Florence under the Medicis.

Why is CASH King in Times of War?

 

Posted May 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Dear Martin,

So refreshing to see some theory regarding silver other than crazy goldbugs claiming JP Morgan artificially putting down t silver prices for XX years. Still what I find interesting is the weakness of the US stock market. Bonds getting dumped, Precious Metals getting dumped, EM’s getting dumped so everyone is just holding USD as cash? Take care.

Best,
Sant

ANSWER: In times of war, UNCERTAINTY is always dominant. It is interesting that the Romans’ Temple of Janus had two doors, and in times of war they were left open, symbolizing that the future was uncertain. Hence, the winds of war could pass freely through the temple, warning they could also lose. During times of peace, the doors were closed, symbolizing security. This is why CASH becomes king in times of war. Even the ancient coin hoards are typically stashed during times of war.

While some think that the Cuban Missile Crisis was when Kennedy took the nuclear deterrent to direct confrontation with Russia rather than attacking Cuba, I suggest that they look at the film the “Courier.” Kennedy did not reject the advice of his advisors to bomb Cuba, there was information flowing from a Russian dissenter who was concerned about nuclear war and the ideology of Khrushchev that communism would conquer the world. This is a totally different time. Putin is not a Communist, and he has no desire to conquer the world with an economic theory. Kennedy was following the advice of his advisers, who were NOT advocating to bomb Cuba. They knew they were fighting against an economic theory to conquer the world, which ironically is the objective of the World Economic Forum and Klaus Schwab.

Freezing assets as Biden has done to all Russians is unproductive. Nobody seems to have ever asked, “Have sanctions ever worked?” On July 24, 1941, Tokyo decided to strengthen its position in terms of its invasion of China by moving through Southeast Asia. On July 26, 1941, President Franklin Roosevelt seized all Japanese assets in the United States in retaliation for the Japanese occupation of French Indo-China. That was followed by Pearl Harbor less than five months later. It seems that our leaders are deliberately pushing the world into war. They need to justify the collapse in their fiscal mismanagement of the global economic system.

The dollar rose during World War I and during the Great Depression when most of Europe defaulted on its debt in 1931. The dollar spiked higher in 1940, but then the US government imposed controls during World War II. They even instructed the Fed to buy US debt at par which they finally rejected in 1951. Note that once the controls were lifted, the dollar soared again post-war.

The dollar on a CASH basis has been the safe haven during war, mainly when the rest of the world is collapsing. This war will NOT be a rerun of the last two. Moving to digital currencies will be the kiss of death and render the financial system completely vulnerable to cyber attacks. The last time, there was counterfeiting of an opponent’s currency to undermine its ability to fund its defense. Even the British were counterfeiting the Continental Currency during the American Revolution.

The Cyberattacks Are to Force the End of Paper Money

 

Posted Jun 2, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

 

 

I find it interesting how nobody seems to distinguish between a digital currency and blockchain cryptocurrency. The former is not traceable other than that transaction. To eliminate cybercriminals, the World Economic Forum is pushing ending paper money and moving to cryptocurrencies – not digital. With blockchain, the government would be able to trace the money to the criminal. The side benefit will be to ensure everyone pays taxes on everything they ever dreamed of. This is the REAL purpose of cyberattacks that are private decisions and outside the jurisdiction of government to trace and prosecute.

This is why Klaus Schwab is warning of cyberattacks. This is to end commerce globally without government-trackable cryptocurrencies. In 1934 when Roosevelt confiscated gold if you had money on deposit in a bank, which had been in gold coin, Roosevelt seized it all. The difference between a digital currency you use today with a debt or credit card is that is not traceable beyond a single transaction. Bitcoin using blockchain allows the government to trace every person who had that Bitcoin in the flow of money. Crypto is far more than digital and they never want to talk about that either. They will tell you no more credit card theft. Everything will be 100% secure. You will no longer be able to find a $5 bill in the parking lot.

 

I have written before how the Romans tried to outlaw prostitution declaring you could not pay a prostitute with a coin that had the image of the emperor which they all did.  So they created these tokens you would buy from a money changer, you would pay the prostitute and she accepted them because she knew she could go to the money changer and he would convert them to coin.

Human nature is resilient. There are already counterfeit COVID cards. In Japan, every new emperor would devalue the outstanding money supply to 10% of his new coins, which also had no metal value. Soon, the Japanese refused to accept Japanese coins. They used Chinese coins and bags of rice. The Japanese government LOST the confidence of its people and was UNABLE to issue coins for 600 years.

They are desperate to get China and Russia into their Great Reset because just as the US dollar is the world currency with 70% of paper dollars circulating outside the United States, that could be replaced by the Chinese currency as was the case back in Japan. Will history repeat? Will we be using Chinese currency because Schwab succeeds in 2023 to end paper money in the West? My advice to China – start printing and imitate the stability of the dollar and never cancel your currency.

Even when Rome fell in 476AD, the barbarians still imitated the Eastern Roman coinage issuing the coins in the name of the Eastern Emperor. This only illustrates my point, that often the currency commonly used is that of another country.

Who is Behind it Central Bankers & Can the Dollar Survive?

 

Posted Dec 31, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Are the central bankers really behind this digital currency? Will that end the dollar as the reserve currency?

Thank you for sharing your experience.

HV

ANSWER: No the central bankers are NOT the instigators. It was Christine Lagarde who when at the IMF was threatening counties they would be blocked from Swift if they did not give up all those who had accounts in these tax havens. Germany went as far as to violate Swiss law and paid bribes to bankers to leak the records of the firms they worked for, which not even Hitler went that far. The entire digital currency idea was pushed by Christine Lagarde while at the IMF. But look closely, she is also a board of trustee member of Schwab’s World Economic Forum along with the new head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva. It was Schwab who got Legarde put into the IMF and then he put her in the central bank. He then had Georgieva put into the IMF.

People who always point to the central bankers really do not know what is going on behind the curtain. Schwab is in league with Bill Gates and George Soros. Gates was pushing the digital currency at the United Nations. Melinda Gates was pushing the digital currency at the G20. It was Gates directing Modi to cancel the currency in India and he did so without ever telling the central bank in advance!

All this nonsense that we are moving to this digital currency system that will dethrone the dollar is just laughable. The three main elements that are the reason why the dollar is the reserve currency has been

1. the US never canceled the currency,
2. there are no capital-controls so anyone can issue bonds in dollars worldwide, and
3. the US has the world’s largest consumer economy which has funded the rise of China, Russia, Japan, and Germany along with all of Europe.

A digital currency does not override any of that. China knows what is unfolding and they are doing two main strategies that will impact the dollar long-term – not short-term.

1. They are building their own consumer economy to reduce reliance on the West
2. They are developing their digital currency to REPLACE the Swift system

This conspiracy against the central banks has been going on a long-term and to me, it just seems to be a diversion to keep people looking in the wrong direction. I have worked with more central banks around the world than probably any independent analyst/adviser. I do not talk about theory – it comes from experience!

The Dollar Panic Nobody Seems to Grasp

Posted Mar 17, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

The moves by the Fed on the weekend were really stupid. The market plunged for 2 days since their emergency measures and this is what undermines confidence. When capital begins to witness the failed measures by central banks as we have warned, this sets the stage for the slingshot which requires the sudden shock of the incompetence of central banks to manage the economy. This is the gist of the Central Bank Crisis. Reuters reported: Markets crater as coronavirus fears overwhelm central bank emergency measures.

The demand for dollars has turned to a dollar panic taking place in the currency derivative markets which has escalated into a multi-year high. The Fed is responding trying to inject even more cash into the Repo Markets. This Liquidity Crisis our computer was projecting is becoming far worse than 2008 or 1998. The Fed’s attempt to return to its origins using the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) in the United States should help corporations and this WILL prove to be more effective than the interest rate cuts and cash injections in central banks because (1) banks will hoard the cash and not lend (2) corporations need the cash or else they will have to layoff millions of workers as the press has created the potential for a Great Depression due to their total irresponsibility.

FX implied dollar borrowing costs have been blowing out as banks held on to their dollars and refused to lend as always despite the rise in demand of corporates for shorter-dated cash and a possible spike in loan defaults. I have been recommending that the Fed return to direct measures. I have been screaming this solution in Washington was vital for handing cash to banks results only in their hoard of cash – i.e. excess funds facility.

Only the CPFF offers direct funding in the very core economic sector under tremendous stress because of the irresponsible press. The corporate sector as the real economy which stands completely disrupted and aggressive monetary policy actions alone will not help. The central banks have lost real control and it is only a question of time before more people realize that the government is incapable of saving the system.

Three-month euro/dollar three-month FX swap spreads EURCBS3M=ICAP reached their widest since the 2011 Eurozone debt crisis at 124 basis points, then narrowed to around 59 bps. The rate had been around 20 bps in early March. The wider this spread has moved indicates market participants are willing to pay a higher premium for dollars. Moreover, the pound/dollar GBPCBS3M=ICAP swap spread narrowed to 53 bps after ballooning to 90 bps earlier, which was the widest since December 2008. Turning to Japan, the dollar/yen basis swap showed investors paying premiums over interbank rates to swap yen into three-month dollars. This too tightened to 95 bps JPYCBS3M=TKFX from 140 bps earlier.

The fact that these swap spreads have widened so much illustrates what I have been warning about that we have a Central Bank Crisis for whatever efforts they may make to keep cash flowing confirms that the press has been so irresponsible that they have singlehandedly undermined the entire global economy. The world is in serious trouble and the demand for dollars is tremendous. Many were borrowing yen for leveraged trading and they have been wiped out fueling the demand for the dollar.

Despite the Fed’s 100-basis-point cut on Sunday, some of the biggest banks in the United States will now access the Fed’s discount window in desperate need of emergency liquidity. On Tuesday, the Japanese central bank also pumped $30 billion into markets with an 84-day dollar funding operation. This was the biggest injection since late 2008.

The Coronavirus Panic & the Dollar Panic. Not bank but industry panic

Posted Mar 17, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Following Mondays near 3k point drop in the DOW, today’s attention is brought back to the Repo market and the demand for US Dollars is off the charts! In the FX market, there has been significant demand for dollars with aggressive bids seen against the Euro -9, GBP -7 and CHF -10 for T/N (Tomorrow Next). This has also been reflected in the spot market, as people’s attention turned back to a month and quarter-end.

The banning of short selling in the Euro government bond market only increases the fear of the unknown. If you can’t sell the bonds, you sell what you can and that this morning it has been the currency in Europe. Back in the late 1980’s, when the Nikkei had peaked, we saw corporate spreads actually trade through government paper. Interesting that the FED is now providing assistance in the Commercial Paper market, offering support at 3M +200bp. Good quality paper will find bids in dollars, it just takes time. However, when panic selling hits – the time is the one commodity that is never on offer!

The Fed offering at least $1.5 trillion worth of short-term loans to banks did not save the day. The market still plunged showing the Fed is now powerless as is the case with all central banks. We are facing the collapse of Keynesian Economics where manipulating interest rates no longer works to stimulate the economy.

The government’s economic stimulus is set to quickly balloon into a trillion-dollar bailout in the coming days, which will be the largest rescue in modern American history. Instead of banks, this time we are dealing with major industries as they are screaming loudly to the Trump administration and Capitol Hill for aid. Vasts portions of the economy have been undermined by this coronavirus scare which the press has turned into a financial pandemic when the number of deaths are under 8,000 compared to 1 million annually between smoking and the flu. The press has unleashed an unprecedented economic crisis and they really should be haled in to account for what they have done.

In Britain, they are asking those 70 years or older to self-quarantine for 4 months! Borris Johnson’s father was on the radio and was asked if he will comply with that and he said no way. He would still go down to the pub.

Because Europe has been in the austerity philosophy and negative interest rates since 2014, there is a panic unfolding for dollars. We see this building from clients making markets even in the Middle East. Right now, the dollar is by no means “trash” but KING! The number of institutions now clamoring for help is skyrocketing. All the Relative Value Desks and Correlation Desks have been blown out of the water in the last week.

Capital Flows & the Next ECM

QUESTION: Sir,
You have advised us to avoid sovereign debt after the ECM date. I imagine that the crisis will affect nations unequally. It seems obvious that money would leave bonds in the more challenged, negative rate countries (EU and Japan). Might these flows come into US Treasuries, thereby stabilizing US rates, at least short-term? Could this be a trading opportunity (long) in our Treasuries? Thank you.
PK

ANSWER: So far, it appears that the capital flows will continue pointing to the USA going into 2022. Thereafter, we should expect a change in that trend in the same position of the ECM, which created the 1987 Crash also due to a capital flight from the dollar.

Categories: Capital Flow 

Defaults on foreign denominated debt by now in Lebanon.

Rise in US Dollar Will Force Defaults in Third World

Posted Dec 13, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The countless analysts who keep preaching that the dollar will collapse have been singing the same song since 1971. They NEVER look outside the USA and simply preach how the US debt (over $20 trillion) will result in hyperinflation and the end of the US economy. They ignore the fact that the US is a tiny fraction of global sovereign debt. They also ignore the fact that there is already $17 trillion in negative yielding euro bonds out there.

I have been warning that the USA will be the last to fall. The stress on the world monetary system will be seen outside the USA. We have seen defaults on foreign denominated debt by now in Lebanon. This is just the beginning. We are looking at a contagion spreading in 2020 on a global scale.

Dethrone the dollar

Trying to Overthrow the Dollar

Posted Nov 7, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, you said at the conference the efforts to overthrow the dollar as the reserve currency have failed and it will take the Monetary Crisis Cycle to accomplish that. Now that Lagarde is in the ECB, will she aid that overthrow to be replaced by the IMF’s SDR?

It was a fantastic conference this year.

FG

ANSWER: The US has abused the role of the dollar in world commerce by imposing sanctions on places like Iran. These sanctions are supported by enforcement using the dollar. The US has weaponized the dollar in this respect. About 90% of international debt is denominated in dollars. Foreign countries issue their debt in dollars to eliminate FOREX risk in order to sell it globally. Both Putin and Xi want to find an alternative to the dollar. It has been the role of the dollar that drives Putin to dethrone the dollar.

There is NO ALTERNATIVE to the dollar — PERIOD!!!!! The stupid Negative Interest Rates on the euro undermined the euro as a possible reserve currency. It has been dumped internationally, which nobody wants to talk about. In discussions with major central banks and key international banks, nobody wants the euro. Negative Interest Rates have killed the euro as a viable currency for exchange purposes. The EU President Juncker has said that it is “absurd” that Europe has to pay for its energy imports in dollars. He has failed to understand that it is their own fault, for the structurally defective euro lacks a central national debt and forces everyone to look at each member state independently in the same manner that applies to state debt in the USA. That lack of a national debt where capital can park has been the fatal flaw behind the euro. Then add the stupidity of Negative Interest Rates and you get a currency that dressed up for Halloween, but is by no means a real reserve currency.

China has given up on trying to fight the dollar. They realize that all the yelling and screaming is pointless. The yuan accounts for only 4% of international transactions. The key for China is to use the yuan in loans to build its road of trade globally. Their greatest hope will be for the Monetary Crisis Cycle to undermine the dollar in the year ahead. That combined with the neo-cons trying to weaponize the dollar will be the ultimate means to dethrone the dollar