Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Gold - Yearly Bearish Reversal lying at $681

Gold the Pending Question
With your recent comments on gold; you seem to be implicitly suggesting people to sell their gold, since there is a good chance for it to bottom-out at a sub-$1000 level. Wouldn’t it make far more sense to hold onto it at least till November?
1) We don’t know for sure whether some of the central banks actually have all the gold they claim to hold:
2) Not all of the large scale gold transactions are performed overtly:
3) The gold accounts without physical holding/delivery go unaccounted in the total global demand for gold.
Kind regards,
REPLY: Whether there is more or no gold in Fort Knox is really irrelevant. The odds of anyone in government admitting to such a fact is ZERO. Most of these scenarios are meaningless. It all depends simply upon the overall belief in government by the masses – not those predisposed to buy gold for they will believe anything that supports a predisposed bullish bias.
The question as to if you hold physical gold and what to do is a separate issue from“investing” in gold. Sure I own $20 gold pieces and give them as gifts to the children in the family on their birthdays. That is really for Plan B. My concern is not with such physical basic holdings that you should have a hedge – my concern is when the Gold Promoters tell people ONLY gold will rise and everything else will crash and burn. That is the snake-oil fraud which has no support in history whatsoever.
If we as a civilization self-destruct because of the greed of politicians and go all the way to a Mad Max event, then we are looking at even gold will have no value. For the complete control-alt-delete reboot would reset the stage where the only thing of value would be food. Not even gold would have value for historically it only came to have value as a luxury – not for a practical utilitarian purpose.
If gold is your total portfolio investment – that is sheer madness. If you have some gold and it is a VERY SMALL proportion of your net worth, fine, for the question should be - CAN YOU survive a drop to the Yearly Bearish Reversal lying at $681? That is your max risk so that is what you must consider. Otherwise, you will panic at the low and sell everything for you will have no choice. Then when a rally begins, you will not be there.
An experienced trader who survives NEVER enters a trade without knowing where he is right and where he is wrong. If you keep making excuses for losses and hold your position all the time, you will lose your confidence and conviction and never see the light of day. That is a fool’s game and anyone who advises that is by no means an analyst. The BUY & HOLD advice has been applied to stocks, gold, silver, and whatever. It has NEVER proven to be correct even just once. You may have bought gold when it broke $1,000 on the upside before 2011. Nice. But did you sell when it came close to $2,000? If you did not sell, then you are in danger of enduring losses you perhaps may not be able to withstand.
The Gold Bugs believe only in gold and cannot see reality. There is nothing wrong with selling at $2,000 and buying twice as much at the low. Anyone who argues against such a strategy is a promoter – not someone you should listen to. That message is nobody can forecast anything so just buy and you will eventually be right like some broken clock. That sales pitch ruined stock investors during the Great Depression. Is your family’s survival worth such a fool’s game?

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