Thursday, April 7, 2016

Our models are starting to highlight Panic Cycles hitting in August


Inside sources have relayed that from the outset, Cruz is very much disliked behind the curtain. His entire strategy from the beginning has been to be the last man standing against Trump assuming the Party will install him despite the fact most really dislike him.
All the exit polls have shown that more than half of voters in this Republican primary were merely “dissatisfied” with government, compared to one-third who were simply outright “angry.” The voters in Wisconsin seem to be more in never-never-land and said for the most part they want someone with experience. That is how the USA will implode for there is nobody in the establishment that gives a shit about the people; this is all about them. So that experience will be a vote for more of the same.
Nevertheless, we have to understand that we have two major risks in politics. First, the establishment may not select Trump or Cruz and if they can simply defeat Trump on the first ballot, then all bets are off and they can even nominate someone who did not bother to run like Romney.
If we assume that Trump will not get the Republican nomination, then if he was smart, he could get on the ballot as a Libertarian since they have already done the heavy lifting. Or, Trump can get on the ballot in a few states and win those but not the general election. This could prevent either Republican or Democrat from winning enough votes for the Electorial College who really votes for President, not the people.

If we end up with nobody winning enough Electorial College votes, then we enter the ultimate demonstration that we do not live in a Democracy by any measure. A failure for any candidate to win the required votes at the Electorial College means the current establishment on Capital Hill gets to select the next President.


The election of 1828 is the example of how the establishment can do as they like. Andrew Jackson won 642,806 popular votes of 55.93%. John Quincy Adams won 501,967 popular votes 43.68%. Neither won the Electorial College so Congress picked the president and Jackson lost. When Jackson finally became president in the 1832 election, he did two major things which were against the establishment. First, he actually paid down the national debt. President Andrew Jackson reported that the United States would be debt-free as of January 1, 1835. This marked the first and only time that the United States, or any other major nation in history, had ever been free from debt. Jackson declared:
“Let us commemorate the payment of the public debt as an event that gives us increased power as a nation and reflects luster on our Federal Union.”

In the course of this objective, Jackson generally opposed bills that allocated taxpayer money for “internal improvements” what we call “pork barrel spending” today. In the 1863 popular story, “The Children of the Public”, Edward Everett Hale used the term pork barrel as a homely metaphor for any form of public spending to the citizenry. However, after the American Civil War, the term’s usage turned derogatory.

Andrew Jackson despised the Second Bank of the United States not because it held too much power over the economy, but actually because his political enemies controlled it. Jackson set out to destroy the Bank for it had even provided loans to his political rivals. The Bank’s President, Nicholas Biddle (1786-1844), routinely used lending practices for political gain, including using Bank funds to publish newspaper attacks on opponents as some money center trading NY banks engage in to this day. Biddle openly favored the National Republicans (later to become the Whig Party), many of whom benefited financially from Biddle’s favor. Prominent National Republicans were Congressmen Daniel Webster (who was on the Bank’s payroll as a legal counsel) and of course Jackson’s arch enemy, Henry Clay, who was again his opponent in the 1832 presidential election but lost.

It is ironic that the New York bankers today own Cruz and Hillary. Both engage in funding their elections not much different from the actions of Biddle. Those who want to see the Federal Reserve eliminated citing what Jackson had done, fail to understand what really took place. The destruction of the Second Bank of the United States resulted in the Panic of 1837, the Sovereign Debt defaults of states in the 1840s, and a severe economic decline which set the stage for the Civil War. The parallel to today is not the Federal Reserve with political power, but the New York bankers.

Our models are starting to highlight Panic Cycles hitting in August. This will start just after the Republican convention. If we are going to go to the extreme in this collapse of confidence in government, then we may see a repeat of the 1828 election. However, we are also in a battle today against the establishment and Trump is closer to Andrew Jackson than anyone else running for office. So the future looks like a political war ahead that is going to turn everything upside down for the establishment are focused on just defeating Trump and they think everyone will go back to watching soap-operas and sports and they can rob us and our children blind as always.

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